Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (2 lettori)

[tommy271]

Greece: Govt optimism about shallower recession may be misplaced


Harry Papachristou, ATHENS - 09.09.2010


Greece's austerity-hit economy shrank at a faster pace than previously thought in the second quarter, casting doubt on government hopes that the future path of a protracted recession will be relatively mild.


Gross domestic product (GDP) in the debt-laden country declined at an annual pace of 3.7 percent in the second quarter, compared with a previous flash estimate of 3.5 percent, statistics service (ELSTAT) said on Wednesday.


The economy shrank 1.8 percent quarter-on-quarter, by far the biggest quarterly decline since it began contracting in the fourth quarter of 2008.


Markets are watching closely for signs of a steeper downturn that may undermine Greece's aims of slashing the budget deficit to below 3 percent of GDP in 2014 from 13.6 percent last year and to return to markets for funding sometime next year.


The GDP reading, following a 2.3 percent year-on-year decline in the first quarter, suggests the EU/IMF's forecast of a 4 percent recession this year is more realistic than the Greek government's hopes that recession will be shallower than that, between 3 and 4 percent, analysts said.


"I'd say that 4 percent looks like an optimistic scenario now," said Diego Iscaro, an analyst at IHS Global Insight. "The second half of the year will be worse, that is when the full impact of austerity measures will be felt," he added.


Household spending eroded at a record annual clip of 4.2 percent in the second quarter, hurt by wage cuts and tax hikes adopted in exchange for a 110 billion euro EU/IMF bailout.


Greece has cut public sector wages by 15 percent and pensions by 10 percent. At the same time, value-added tax has risen by 4 percentage points to 23 percent and other consumption taxes by a third as the government struggles to plug its budget holes.


Investment dropped by 18.6 percent as firms, especially in construction, slash projects and shed workers to cope with the downturn.


On Monday, mid-sized construction firm Attikat filed for bankruptcy protection. On Tuesday, Lambrakis Press , the country's biggest newspaper group, said it shut down its books publishing division to stop bleeding cash.


European recovery is doing little to help Greek exports and tourism receipts, ELSTAT's figures showed. Exports of services, mainly receipts from foreign tourists, dropped in value by 7 percent while sales of products abroad declined by 2.3 percent as Greek firms continue to suffer from low competitiveness vis-a-vis foreign rivals.


"It is rather disappointing to see exports contracting by an overall 5 percent," said Platon Monokroussos, an economist at EFG Eurobank.


The slump would have been even deeper had austerity not also hurt imports, which declined by 13.5 percent, economists said. "Falling imports was the only support to GDP in the second quarter," said Nikos Magginas, an analyst at the National Bank of Greece.


Source Reuters - Balkans.com

***
Un riassuntino ...

 

[tommy271]

In ogni caso se vuoi utilizzare i CDS come indicatore di rischio, ti cosiglio di monitorare la probabilità di default piuttosto che lo spread. Questa è piuttosto stabile ed è intorno al 50% da diverse settimane.

In fondo è come puntare sul rosso o nero al casinò....

Azz. non vinco mai al gioco ... sono un perdente .

 

[tommy271]

China PBOC Offl Warns Europe Recovery Under Threat From Debt

BEIJING (MNI) - Europe's recovery has been better than expected but the single currency union isn't out of the woods yet as the ongoing debt problems eat at growth, a senior official with the People's Bank of China warned Thursday.
"The negative impact of the European debt crisis is weakening and the eurozone reconomic recovery is better than expectations," Assistant Governor Li Dongrong told a conference here.
But he warned that the ongoing debt crisis, as well as weak labor and credit markets, will affect Europe's recovery.
"Europe has taken many bailout measures but hasn't fundmentally solved the sovereign debt problem," Li said, warning that Greece and Spain still face sovereign debt risk.
But the central bank official also said that the recovery trend in the major economies is generally good, while that in the emerging markets has been notably strong. Li said that there is no risk of a global economic "double dip."
He did warn that short-term flows of capital into emerging economies are fueling inflation and asset bubbles.
European Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht confirmed in June that China has bought Greek and Spanish bonds in the wake of the debt crises on the continent.
Among the messages delivered by De Gucht to Chinese officials during his trip here was that European debt is a safe investment.
Li also reiterated that the government will continue to reform the yuan exchange rate mechanism and pledged to step up exchange rate flexibility.

***
Occhio che fregano i cinesi ...

 

[tommy271]

Greece: NBG's bold cash call hits shares on dilution- No immediate plans for an M&A transaction


George Georgiopoulos, Athens - 09.09.2010


Greece's largest lender National Bank took a bold step to shake its dependency on European Central Bank (ECB) funding with a major capital increase that could prompt rivals to follow suit.


NBG's bid to boost capital to cope with recession at home and a liquidity quagmire that has forced Greek banks to rely on the ECB earned plaudits from the government but put pressure on its shares and the banking index.


"The proposed capital plan is testimony to the improving sentiment towards NBG and Greece and should be an important milestone in the country's adjustment process," Chairman Vasilis Rapanos said.


NBG aims to tap markets for a total 2.8 billion euros ($3.6 billion) via a rights issue, a convertible bond and the sale of a stake in its Turkish cash cow Finansbank, to deal with the debt crisis and be better placed to take advantage of merger opportunities.


The dilution of earnings per share by the planned new issues knocked more than 10 percent off NBG shares at the open. They were trading down 6.35 percent at 9.74 euros at 1242 GMT and were weighing on the Athens bourse's banking index, which was down 3.1 percent.


LIQUIDITY SQUEEZE


Greek banks have been hurt by the country's debt crisis, with bond portfolios ravaged by successive sovereign credit rating downgrades. A continuing deposit drain has further exacerbated the liquidity squeeze.


Shut out from wholesale funding markets, Greek banks are now the euro zone periphery's biggest users of ECB liquidity facilities relative to the size of the country's banking system.


ECB funding reached 96.2 billion euros in July, about 20 percent of the Greek system's total assets, while household and business deposits are down 11 percent so far this year.


The cash will help the group to repay 350 million euros of preferred shares it sold the government under a previous liquidity support plan and boost the confidence of funding counterparties and depositors.


NBG passed a European stress test in July, scoring a Tier 1 capital ratio of 7.4 percent under the extreme scenario simulation.


SENSIBLE TACTIC Analysts said NBG's plan made sense and could be followed by other banks as they try to disengage from the state and bolster their capital cushions.


"The total amount to be raised is significantly higher than market expectations of 1.0-1.5 billion euros," UBS analyst Alexander Kyrtsis said. "It is strategically the right move for NBG and, on preliminary estimates, the deal is about 30 percent earnings-per-share dilutive."


NBG's rationale was to strengthen capital ratios by about 400 basis points to reinforce its balance sheet and improve access to funding markets, Kyrtsis said.


Finance minister George Papaconstantinou called the plan a very positive development, as the government has repeatedly encouraged banks to take initiatives to strengthen their capital position and consolidate.


The combined equity capital raising will be underwritten by a syndicate of banks including Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Hellenic Postbank, which will also be joint bookrunners.


While the capital boost would give NBG an advantageous pole position in view of anticipated consolidation in Greek banking, CEO Apostolos Tamvakakis talked down expectations of merger deals in the offing.


"We don't have immediate plans for an M&A transaction. We are not discussing with any other banks," Tamvakakis told analysts in a conference call.


PLAN DETAILS


NBG, with a current market value of 6.3 billion euros, will issue 121.4 million new shares at 5.2 euros each on a one-for-five basis to raise 631 million euros. The offering price stands 39 percent below the adjusted ex-rights price based on Tuesday's close.


The bank will also raise 1.184 billion euros through a rights offering of equity notes, convertible into ordinary shares at 5.2 euros and at a ratio of three-for-eight.


The combined 1.8 billion euro rights issue amounts to about 29 percent of NBG's market capitalisation.


"NBG's move could imply more capital raising from its competitors, which is negative for share prices," analysts at Proton Bank said in a note, estimating that the entire capital raising plan would dilute 2011 earnings per share by 35 percent.


The group, also present in Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia, Albania, Cyprus, Egypt and Ukraine, said it would keep a majority stake in Turkish subsidiary Finansbank of at least 75 percent.


Its planned public offering in Finansbank, which is expected to be completed by the end of the first quarter of 2011, might include new and existing shares to raise about 1 billion euros.


NBG's shares, down 43 percent so far this year, have underperformed the broader Greek equity market, which has declined 26 percent. They trade about 9.5 times estimated 2011 earnings.


Source Reuters - Balkans.com

***
Anche qui un riassuntino intorno alla questioni NBG ...

 

[Vet]

Su questo punto invito tutti a fare attenzione poichè la coperturà IMF/EU non è affatto scontata quarto su quarto. Questo il mercato lo sa ed è per questa ragione che anche i brevi quotano interessi a doppia cifra.

Nello scenario improbabile ma non impossibile nel quale ci siano deviazioni nette dai risultati auspicati o cambiamenti nel governo greco dettati dalla piazza potremmo anche assistere a nuovi scenari prima del previsto.

A mio parere comunque il rischio default sarà molto maggiore qualora il deficit si assesti intorno alla parita, a quel punto il paese potrebbe più o meno allegramente ripudiare il debito e tornarsene alla dracma. Non è escluso che Lazard gli abbia indicato uno scenario come questo, risanare con l'aiuto di IMF/EU e poi decidere sulla base delle alternative o delle nuove condizioni imposte a partire dal 2012.

Il paragone con GM che leggo francamente non regge, se in Italia fallisse ad esempio la Fiat non credo ci sarebbero questi impatti irreparabili sull'economia del paese.

Non intedevo fare nessun tipo di paragone reale con gm....mi riferivo solo ed esclusivamente ai vari post nei vari siti che ricorrevano in quei mesi pre fallimento GM...dove sembrava che se Gm fosse fallita sarebbe fallito il mondo intero.....invece c'è stato poco più di una scoreggia.....ciò non toglie che chi la comprato negli ultimi giorni a valore 0,8-1 (piu rateo 8%) abbia fatto un bel affaruccio rivendendola a 30-33

Non penso che la BCE O FMI......si rimangino quello che hanno detto e sopratutto fatto (tanto denaro)...inoltre tieni presente che dentro la grecia ci sono dentro le principali banche europee

 

[tommy271]

PM forms team to tackle crisis

Small group of ministers and officials has task of drawing up and implementing government policy

The new, small team that will form the government’s driving force following the Cabinet reshuffle was revealed yesterday, as sources said the shake-up has left some ministers unsure what their duties are.
Prime Minister George Papandreou had wanted to appoint his trusted aide, and interior minister, Yiannis Ragousis to head a core team of ministers that would be responsible for discussing, suggesting and implementing the government’s policy. The idea of a small, trusted group of advisers was born of the government’s failure during its first 11 months in power to effectively coordinate policies between various ministries and to ensure that targets were met.
It was confirmed that this tight-knit group has been formed and that it held its first meeting yesterday. Under the chairmanship of Papandreou, Ragousis, Finance Minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou, Foreign Minister Dimitris Droutsas, Culture Minister Pavlos Geroulanos, government spokesman Giorgos Petalotis, Interior Ministry general secretary Dimitris Stefanou and head of PASOK’s parliamentary group Regina Vartzeli met on the top floor of the Interior Ministry to discuss government policy.
Among the group’s key tasks is to make sure Greece is keeping to the commitments it has made in the memorandum it signed with the European Union and International Monetary Fund. It appears that the prime minister’s intention is that the team should meet daily to discuss the prevailing issues of the day.
Two notable omissions from the team are Deputy Prime Minister Theodoros Pangalos, who had initially been given the task of overseeing ministers’ progress, and State Minister Haris Paboukis, a longstanding aide of Papandreou’s.
Petalotis assured journalists that there is no danger of a falling-out with Pangalos as “the deputy minister already has a very serious role.” Paboukis, meanwhile, has been given the task of attracting investments to Greece.
However, there is some confusion over where this leaves the new Regional Development Minister Michalis Chrysochoidis, as this would normally fall under his remit. The lack of clarity on this issue is symptomatic of the fallout from the reshuffle. Sources said that as the new ministers head up to the Thessaloniki International Fair, where Papandreou will set out his government’s economic policy on Saturday, few of them are sure of their exact duties. “Don’t bother asking me specific questions,” Petalotis told journalists. “The ministers’ responsibilities will be formalized and announced soon.”


(Kathimerini.gr)

 

[tommy271]

CINA: BANCA CENTRALE VEDE SPAGNA E GRECIA ANCORA A RISCHIO

(ASCA-MarketNews) - Pechino, 9 set - La ripresa economica in Europa e' piu' robusta delle previsioni ma l'eurozona non e' ancora fuori dal tunnel. E' quanto ha dichiarato oggi Li Dongrong, assistente del governatore della banca centrale cinese in occasione di una conferenza a cui ha partecipato il Commissario Ue al Commercio Karel De Gutch.

''L'impatto negativo della crisi del debito si sta indebolendo e favorisce la ripresa economica. L'Europa ha adottato delle misure di salvataggio per i paesi a rischio ma non ha fondamentalmente risolto il problema della crisi del debito sovrano'' ha spiegato Li, avvertendo che Spagna e Grecia sono ancora a rischio.

Il commissario De Gutch ha confermato che in giugno la Cina ha comprato titoli di stato di Madrid e di Atene.


***
In Italiano ...

 

[tommy271]

Fitch Says Eurozone Fiscal Tightening Yet To Begin In Earnest

LONDON (MNI) - Credit rating agency Fitch said fiscal tightening in the eurozone has yet to begin in earnest, with substantive tightening so far only taking place in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain.
Fitch issued the following statement:
"In its latest special report on the outlook for euro area sovereigns, Fitch Ratings says that it does not expect euro-wide fiscal retrenchment to begin until 2011, reinforced by strong political commitment by member states to a material strengthening of the EU Stability and Growth Pact.
Today's report assesses the fiscal and financial challenges facing member states, the impact of ageing populations on public expenditure and prospective changes to the zone's economic policy framework and institutions.
'While all member states are responding to varying degrees to the imperative to put credible medium-term fiscal consolidation programmes in place, substantive fiscal tightening remains limited to Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland,' says Paul Rawkins, Senior Director in Fitch's Sovereign Group.
'The announcement of a euro area sovereign financial safety net and the results of the European bank stress tests have stabilised market sentiment, as has stronger than expected economic growth in the second quarter. Nonetheless, market confidence remains fragile as concerns persist over the sustainability of the global economic recovery and the medium-term outlook for public finances,' added Rawkins.
As previously noted, the agency believes the volatility in sovereign debt and other markets has been as much a crisis of market confidence in the long-run viability of the euro zone as it has the fiscal solvency of some member states. It notes that the majority of euro zone states had funded over 50% of their gross fiscal financing requirements for 2010 by end-June, while Greece (BBB-/Negative Outlook), Ireland (AA-/Stable Outlook), Portugal (AA-/Negative Outlook) and Spain (AA+/Stable Outlook) were well ahead, having funded between two-thirds and three-quarters of their needs. Nonetheless, Fitch considers that the global financial crisis has highlighted the need for far-reaching changes in the conduct of economic and fiscal policy at the national and euro area level to dispel doubts over the long-run viability and success of European economic and monetary union.
Today's report also highlights that the need for euro area countries to reverse unfavourable public debt dynamics over the medium term is thrown into sharp relief by the challenge of population ageing. European Commission estimates foresee age-related spending in the euro area rising by an average of 5pp of GDP to around 30% of GDP by 2060 and Fitch notes that there are wide variations in member states' preparedness. Today's report includes a case study of Finland (AAA/Stable Outlook) versus Greece - two countries that will feel the demographic pressures earlier than many of their euro area peers.
The report also highlights the convergence of European sovereign and bank credit risk in H110, which constrained the access of both to international capital markets in some instances. While the bank stress tests have eased investor concerns about individual bank claims on sovereign balance sheets, banks and sovereigns are expected to become growing competitors for funds as higher gross fiscal financing needs coincide with an upsurge in banks' debt maturities in 2011-2012. Fitch estimates the combined medium- to long-term amortisation schedule for euro zone banks and sovereigns at EUR455bn in H210, rising to EUR900bn-1trn a year in 2011 and 2012.
Despite the euro area's current travails, Fitch still believes that for small highly euroised economies with sound public finances, such as Estonia (A/Stable Outlook), the benefits of joining the euro continue to far outweigh the disadvantages. Estonia will become the 17th member state in January 2011."



(Market News.com)

 

[Imark]

OTC, ieri. occhio, perché BBML non ha dati aggiornati per la chiusura di ieri (non saprei dirvi il perché), quindi tornano utili solo gli Xtrakter. Con l'effetto, fra l'altro, di non avere un prezzo sui GGBei se non l'indicativo Xtrakter, privo di bid - ask e rivelatosi in passato poco affidabile.

Prosegue il calo manifestatosi ieri, particolarmente marcato sui titoli 2017 2019. Correggono leggermente anche gli ultradecennali, salvo il 2040 che invece mette a segno un recupero.

il 2013 - 84,27 (BBML) 84,19 (Xtrakter);
il 2014 - 79,69 (BBML) 79,46 (Xtrakter);
il 2015 - 78,60 (BBML) 78,59 (Xtrakter);
il 2016 - 67,18 (BBML) 67,09 (Xtrakter);
il 2017 - 65,65 (BBML) 65,36 (Xtrakter);
il 2018 - 65,14 (BBML) 64,50 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6% 68,67 (BBML) 67,75 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6.5% 70,51 (BBML) 70,08 (Xtrakter);
il 2022 - 64,30 (BBML) 63,80 (Xtrakter);
il 2024 - 59,35 (BBML) 59,18 (Xtrakter);
il 2026 - 60,41 (BBML) 60,39 (Xtrakter);
il 2037 - 53,86 (BBML) 53,48 (Xtrakter);
il 2040 - 54,13 (BBML) 54,60 (Xtrakter);

GGBei 2025 - 53,04 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter
GGBei 2030 - 48,26 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter

Sempre OTC, mercoledì sera. Continuano a non essere aggiornati i prezzi BBML. Se la situazione dovesse continuare, chiederò a Massimo S., ove fosse disponibile a fare questa carineria al forum, se può verificare la ragione di questa sospensione, che incide particolarmente sulla possibilità di tenere d'occhio l'OTC dei GGBei, per le ragioni più volte esposte.

Peraltro segnalo che anche l'indicativo Xtrakter per i GGBei (pur non molto affidabile, e che sono restio ad indicare) per il 2025 è aggiornato a l'altro ieri, segno che gli scambi sono davvero al lumicino. Per il 2030 invece l'indicativo Xtrakter (ripeto, da prendere con le pinze, ma non c'è di meglio) è a 50,08, dato di ieri.

I prezzi aggiornati sono dunque solo gli Xtrakter, i BBML sono del 6 settembre scorso.

il 2013 - 84,27 (BBML) 83,70 (Xtrakter);
il 2014 - 79,69 (BBML) 78,58 (Xtrakter);
il 2015 - 78,60 (BBML) 77,95 (Xtrakter);
il 2016 - 67,18 (BBML) 66,33 (Xtrakter);
il 2017 - 65,65 (BBML) 64,53 (Xtrakter);
il 2018 - 65,14 (BBML) 63,40 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6% 68,67 (BBML) 67,11 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6.5% 70,51 (BBML) 69,69 (Xtrakter);
il 2022 - 64,30 (BBML) 63,59 (Xtrakter);
il 2024 - 59,35 (BBML) 58,68 (Xtrakter);
il 2026 - 60,41 (BBML) 60,05 (Xtrakter);
il 2037 - 53,86 (BBML) 53,35 (Xtrakter);
il 2040 - 54,13 (BBML) 54,00 (Xtrakter);

GGBei 2025 - 53,04 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter
GGBei 2030 - 48,26 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter

 

[g.ln]

c'entrano, c'entrano

Questa e' una questione economica.....le culture e civiltà
passate centrano davvero poco.....comunque come ho ribadito prima finche' c'e
l'ombrello bce nema problema.......poi si vedra'

L'unione europea senza la Grecia non ha alcun senso politico, non è presentabile, non ha futuro. L'unione Europea non potrà mai essere una accozzaglia di Stati uniti solo da interessi economici ed egoistici: una costruzione siffatta cadrebbe come un castello di carte al primo venticello. Senza la repubblica slovacca o la Fiat l'Europa potrebbe esistere, senza la Grecia no, e questo la Politica Europea lo sa e l'ombrello BCE ne è la prova.
Ciao, Giuseppe