Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1

[tommy271]

Il difficile cammino UE della Macedonia



Monday, 27 September 2010 13:30


L´autunno macedone si prospetta particolarmente caldo dal punto di vista politico, con il Governo impegnato a lavorare alle riforme necessarie all´adeguamento dei requisiti europei, in attesa del report nel quale a novembre la Commissione farà il punto della situazione sullo stato dei progressi compiuti.
Tra i settori dove sono ancora necessari miglioramenti vi sono il sistema giudiziario, la pubblica amministrazione, l´introduzione degli accordi di Ohrid, scrive Setimes.
A prescindere dai progressi compiuti in questi settori, a rivestire un ruolo nevralgico continuerà ad essere la disputa sul nome in corso con la Grecia, che appare entrata in una nuova fase di stallo a causa della crisi greca, che ha costretto il Governo ad accantonare per il momento la questione, per dedicarsi a problemi più urgenti.
Sebbene la risoluzione di tale problema non costituisca ufficialmente una pre-condizione per la membership UE, resta il fatto che Atene può far valere le proprie posizioni all´interno del blocco, potendo contare sull´appoggio di altri Stati membri.
In questo senso bisogna ad esempio ricordare la recente presa di posizione dell´Ambasciatore svedese in Macedonia, che ha ricordato come la Grecia sia uno Stato membro UE e la Macedonia ancora no e che le due posizioni non sono uguali: il mondo non è un posto piacevole, soprattutto sotto il profilo della politica internazionale.

L´opinione pubblica macedone è divisa, non solo trai partiti politici, ma anche trai gruppi etnici: l´83 per cento dei cittadini di etnia macedone interpellati nel corso di un recente sondaggio ha affermato che respingerebbe un cambiamento del nome finalizzato all´entrata in UE e NATO se si votasse domani.
Per contro, il 73 per cento dei cittadini di origine albanese consultati nel corso del medesimo sondaggio si è detta favorevole al cambiamento del nome se questo garantisse un più agevole cammino verso l´ammissione.

Nel frattempo, l´allungarsi dei tempi porta a diminuire l´entusiasmo verso l´Europa: secondo un sondaggio condotto da Eurobarometro lo scorso agosto, il numero di coloro che pensano che la membership UE sarebbe un evento positivo per la Macedonia è diminuito del 6 per cento rispetto allo scorso anno.
Il Governo ribadisce la volontà di trovare una soluzione, ma di non essere disposto a mettere in discussione l´identità e gli interessi nazionali macedoni. Il Primo Ministro Gruevski ha recentemente ribadito di ritenere che le richieste elleniche siano esagerate. Tale situazione ha portato a nuove tensioni con l´opposizione social - democratica, che continua a spingere per un compromesso.

A due mesi dalla pubblicazione del report della Commissione Europea, i tempi si stanno facendo stretti per la Macedonia per consolidare la propria immagine riformatrice e, se possibile, per portare la propria posizione più vicina a quella greca sulla questione del nome.
Gli analisti pensano tuttavia che per assistere a reali sviluppi su questo fronte bisognerà aspettare il prossimo anno, quando la Presidenza di turno UE verrà assunta dall´Ungheria: l´attuale Presidenza belga non appare infatti in grado di occuparsi a fondo di problemi come la questione del nome macedone, essendo di espressione di un Governo indebolito dallo stallo politico interno al Belgio.


Marcello Berlich - by Setimes.Com

 

[tommy271]

Strike in Greece changes railway traffic between Bulgaria and Greece

28 September 2010 | 09:22 | FOCUS News Agency
Home / Bulgaria


Sofia. The three-day strike of the Greek railway workers changes the train traffic between Bulgaria and Greece until September 29, the Bulgarian State Railways announced.
The two morning international trains and the two afternoon international trains between Sofia and Thessaloniki will not run. On Tuesday and Wednesday the two international trains Romania between Bucharest and Thessaloniki (via Sofia) will run only between Bucharest and Kulata checkpoint on the Bulgarian-Greek border. The passengers of the two trains will travel by bus between Kulata and Thessaloniki.
The morning international fast train from Sofia to Thessaloniki and the afternoon international fast train from Thessaloniki to Sofia will not run on September 29.
The Bulgarian State Railways will give a refund to all its customers who have bought a ticket for the cancelled trains in advance.

 

[tommy271]

Papademos Says Greece's Economy Will Gradually Return to Growth Next Year

By Christian Vits and Caroline Connan - Sep 28, 2010 7:51 AM GMT+0200 Tue Sep 28 05:51:05 GMT 2010


Lucas Papademos, the former European Central Bank Vice President, said the Greek economy will return to economic growth next year and ruled out any restructuring of the country’s debt.
“In the course of next year, we expect a gradual return to positive growth,” Papademos said in an interview in Brussels late yesterday. “The restructuring of Greek debt is not considered an option. It’s not an option for any country of the euro region.”
Greek gross domestic product has declined for seven consecutive quarters, dropping 2 percent in 2009, and the government and European Union predict a 4 percent contraction this year. The government imposed a series of austerity measures this year, including wage and pension cuts, to help restore investor confidence and push down the country’s budget deficit.
“I think Greece will go to tap the markets when the time is right,” Papademos said. “2011 is a year when I would expect the conditions to improve substantially and the likelihood of a return to markets would be high.”
Investors remain reluctant to buy Greek debt. The extra yield that they demand to hold Greek 10-year bonds compared with German bunds was at 862.9 basis points yesterday. It was at 965 basis points before the EU-led bailout in early May.
While Greece’s fiscal consolidation efforts have been “really impressive” so far “markets and investors would like to be more convinced that effective implementation would continue,” Papademos said. Still, “as the outcome becomes more visible, there will be a visible change in financial markets.”



(Bloomberg)

 

[tommy271]

Bankers, businesspeople concerned economic conditions bound to deteriorate in months ahead


kathimerini - 28.09.2010


While Finance Minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou appears confident Greece will meet or even exceed the 2010 budget deficit target of 8.1 percent of gross domestic product agreed in the economic policy program with the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, executives from the private sector appear more pessimistic about the prospects of their firms and the real economy.
This, in turn, poses a dilemma: Can Greece stick to the austerity program and slash its budget deficit as planned or will the burden of a badly bruised private sector undermine this effort?
There is no doubt that the country’s fiscal consolidation is unprecedented even by international standards. The general government budget deficit will have to be reduced by some 11 percentage points of GDP between 2010 and 2013, half of which is planned to be slashed this year.
But the government, which let the country get to this point, has no other way but to cut its budget deficit and satisfy the terms of the memorandum if it wants to secure the remaining 10 loan disbursements from the 110-billion-euro financing package provided by eurozone countries and the IMF. It is noted 80 billion euros come from the eurozone and the rest from the IMF.

 

[tommy271]

Greek banks' recent trends justify continued negative outlook - Moody's

September 28, 2010 - Cyprus news portal on business, politics, investments and economy.



The continued weak and deteriorating asset quality and funding conditions among Greek banks continue to justify a negative outlook on the Greek banking sector as well as on the banks' standalone ratings, Moody's Investors Service said in a new market update on Monday.

"The recent release of macroeconomic statistics for Greece, as well as Greek banks' Q2 results indicate a trajectory that is broadly in line with Moody's expectations and therefore also with the ratings and outlooks that are currently held by Greek banks," said Constantinos Kypreos, senior analyst at Moody's. However, the rating agency cautioned that Greek banks' non-performing loans (NPLs) remain at the upper end of expectations and that continued deposit outflows could potentially increase the likelihood of negative rating actions.

Moody's new report highlights that macroeconomic conditions in Greece (rated Ba1) remain extremely challenging, with GDP down 3.7% in Q2 2010 and increased unemployment (to 12% in May) adversely affecting the banking sector. NPLs have risen to 9.0% of total loans in H1 2010, and the banking sector has become loss-making overall, although Greece's Big Four banks continue to outperform smaller banks. Additionally, deposit outflows -- amounting to EUR 31 bln since the start of the year, or 11% of total deposits -- and Greek banks' continued exclusion from the bond and money markets are exerting funding pressures on the sector. Although these pressures are currently addressed by the banks' access to ECB funding, Moody's noted that the temporary nature of ECB support means that the system still needs to "fix" its funding structure and drastically reduce ECB funding over the medium term, as and when market confidence towards Greek risk is restored.

Moody's views positively the strong start that Greece has made with its Economic Adjustment Programme (EAP), which underpins the EUR 110 bln support package from the ECB and IMF. Moreover, the rated Greek banks (with the exception of Agricultural Bank of Greece) have enough capital to absorb some additional loan losses in addition to those they have incurred to date, as the July CEBS stress-testing results have demonstrated. As an extra buffer, additional capital is available to under-capitalised banks following the establishment of the EUR 10 bln Hellenic Financial Stability Fund, a component of the EC/ECB/IMF support package.

However, Moody's points out that investors remain concerned about a potential restructuring of Greek government debt -- a risk that Moody's considers low as indicated by its rating but not immaterial -- and the impact of a government bond write-down on the banking sector, which could render some of the banks technically insolvent.

(Financial Mirror)

 

[tommy271]

Fiat: grana da 50 mln in Grecia (MF)


MILANO (MF-DJ)--Fiat-Chrysler potrebbe essere condannata a pagare 60 milioni usd (50 mln euro) per violazione di contratto. A tanto ammonta la richiesta di danni avanzata il 17 settembre presso un tribunale del Michigan (Stato in cui ha sede la Chrysler) dallo storico importatore greco delle vetture Usa, il gruppo ateniese Cjd Hellas.
La vicenda nasce dal fatto che, dopo aver siglato l'alleanza con la casa di Detroit, l'a.d. Sergio Marchionne, ha deciso di razionalizzare la rete di distribuzione europea. Per questo, si legge nell'esposto Chrysler ha spedito una lettera al gruppo greco in cui spiegava che l'accordo di distribuzione sarebbe scaduto il 31 maggio 2011.
Nello stabilire questo preavviso, la casa automobilistica si e' rifatta all'articolo che prevede 12 mesi di preavviso nel caso di una generale riorganizzazione del business. Cosa che la Chrysler ha fatto. Ma secondo Cjd Hellas, tale clausola non puo' essere invocata in questa vertenza in quanto, secondo le norme Ue, puo' essere sfruttata solo se un'azienda consente ai propri rivenditori di partecipare a questa ristrutturazione.

 

[tommy271]

China backs Greece, other debt-strained EU states

BEIJING, Sept 28 | Tue Sep 28, 2010 3:53am EDT


BEIJING, Sept 28 (Reuters) - China gave its backing on Tuesday to efforts by European Union countries to tackle their debt problems.
Vice Foreign Minister Fu Ying said the debt strains facing a number of EU states would be on the agenda when Premier Wen Jiabao visits Belgium, Italy, Greece and Turkey next week.
"We have a positive attitude towards the actions taken by the European Union and IMF, and we have noted the many measures adopted by the Greek government," Fu told reporters. "We hope that Greece can recover from its present hardships."
China has already extended a helping hand to Greece by agreeing to make substantial investments there. It was also a big buyer recently of Spanish government bonds.

***

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[tommy271]

Trichet on macro-economic conditions


ANa-MPa/ "There has been a very, very important change of the trajectory of the macro-economic policy of Greece", European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said on Monday.
Addressing the European Parliament's economic and monetary affairs committee, the ECB's president said that "My only message now would be: implement rigorously what has been decided, which is well-oriented in our opinion and which is monitored every quarter by the IMF on one hand and by the Commission in liaison with us on the other hand. "If this is done well as we trust and in an effective manner then I expect that it will be recognized and change the overall judgment which is progressively changed," Trichet said.

 

[tommy271]

Gov’t leans on nervous banks

Ministers to call on lenders to pump money into economy in exchange for support; Moody’s points out risks

Top government officials are scheduled to meet with the Hellenic Bank Association today in a bid to convince lenders to pump more money into the economy, but banks may stand firm, fearing the risk of credit rating downgrades.
Finance Minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou and Regional Development and Competitiveness Minister Michalis Chrysochoidis will call on the HBA, which has some 28 members, to provide more liquidity to the market if they want to benefit from the state’s 25-billion-euro plan to support the sector.
Bank officials have indicated that they will use funds from the government program to offset losses arising from an outflow of deposits as households dip into savings as a means of getting by during the downturn.
It is these deposit outflows, along with bank loan losses, that keep Greek lenders at risk of credit downgrades from ratings agency Moody’s. “Greek banks’ nonperforming loans remain at the upper end of expectations,” said Moody’s analyst Constantinos Kypreos yesterday.
That, combined with continued deposit outflows, “could potentially increase the likelihood of negative rating actions.”
Moody’s said deteriorating asset quality and funding conditions in the industry “continue to justify” a negative outlook on both the sector and separate bank ratings. Economic data for Greece and recent second-quarter earnings for banks indicate “a trajectory broadly in line” with expectations.
Deposits by businesses and households held in Greek banks in July dropped to 212.3 billion euros from 216.5 billion euros the previous month, according to data from the Bank of Greece, the seventh straight monthly drop.
Deposit outflows are estimated at about 31 billion euros so far this year, or 11 percent of total deposits, Moody’s said.
Nonperforming loans have risen to 9 percent of the total in the first half of the year, Moody’s said.
“Although these pressures are currently addressed by the banks access to European Central Bank funding, Moody’s notes the temporary nature of ECB support means that the system still needs to fix its funding structure and drastically reduce ECB funding over the medium term,” according to the statement.


(Kathimerini.gr)

 

[tommy271]

ING on bonds

Investors should buy Greek two-year notes and hold them for nine months in the expectation that their higher yield will see them outperform equivalent German government notes, according to ING Groep NV. “The two-year spread could withstand a widening of almost 320 basis points before the investor would have been better off in bunds,” Padhraic Garvey, head of developed markets debt strategy at ING in Amsterdam, wrote in a research note yesterday. “The equivalent break-even spread is 260 basis points in the three-year, and is still a relatively impressive 70 basis points in the 10-year.”


(Bloomberg)