Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1

[tommy271]

A more favourable recovery in visitor arrivals in Greece is expected from 2011-BMI



Balkan Business News Correspondent - 04.10.2010


After foreign tourist arrivals fell by 2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2008, Greece's tourism sector suffered badly in 2009, with tourist arrivals down by an estimated 8% y-o-y. The most recent data, up to July 2010, show a very mixed picture for tourism, with a number of Greek islands recording growth in foreign tourist arrivals, while tourism to Athens and Thessaloniki has been weak. Domestic tourism, meanwhile, has been particularly badly hit by the Greek recession, such as on the Greek islands of Mykonos, Rhodes and Zakynthos.

Strikes And Unrest Continue ; The tourism sector continues to be damaged by labour unrest, with disruptions at ports such as Piraeus and at airports, where strikes by air traffic controllers have led to numerous flight cancellations. In June 2010, there was also a bomb blast in Athens at the offices of Greece's Ministry of Interior, killing an aide to the minister responsible for counterterrorism. Forecast Scenario ; BMI maintain BMI's forecast of only a marginal increase in foreign tourist arrivals in 2010 of 0.5%.



A more favourable recovery in visitor arrivals is expected from 2011 (+4% y-o-y). The outlook is partly based on BMI's expectation of a generally weak European recovery. Concerning the UK - the key market for inbound tourism - BMI's forecasts have been adjusted down this quarter, with economic growth of 1.0% and 2.3% in 2010 and 2011 respectively. BMI's eurozone growth forecasts stand at 1.1% and 1.4% (downgraded from 1.6% this quarter) for 2010 and 2011 respectively.
Athens International Airport ; Despite a strong rebound in total passenger numbers at Athens International Airport (AIA) in Q110, data for H110 were disappointing, with traffic virtually unchanged compared with the same period in 2009 at 7.2mn passengers. Although international passenger numbers were up slightly, by 0.4% y-o-y, domestic traffic fell by 0.4% y-o-y, reflecting the poor state of the Greek economy. Middle East traffic increased the most, up 18% y-o-y, followed by Asia at 4% y-o-y.

In June 2010, Olympic Air started new routes from Athens to Kythira, Karpathos, Skiathos and the island of Ikaria. In August, the airline announced a code-share agreement with the second largest Italian airline, Meridiana Fly, enhancing travel options for passengers flying between Italy and Greece. Source; Companies and Markets

 

[tommy271]

Greek prime minister honored in Berlin


BERLIN


Greece's prime minister vowed Sunday that his country will succeed in overcoming its debt crisis and pushing through far-reaching reforms as he was honored in Germany for his courage in confronting his nation's problems.


George Papandreou was honored for embodying the "strength of truthfulness" at a ceremony held by the private Quadriga foundation, which issues its awards on the anniversary of German reunification.
Papandreou said the award was "recognition of a job well done by a whole nation."
"We have together shown our determination, our political will to uphold our responsibilities, our determination to push through deep change in our country," he said.


Papandreou's government revealed after it was elected last year that Greece's budget data had been falsified and sharply revised its budget deficit upward.
"You looked the sad truth in the eye and told it to your citizens without mincing words," Josef Ackermann, the chief executive of Germany's biggest bank, Deutsche Bank AG, said in a speech honoring the prime minister.
Greece avoided bankruptcy in May thanks to a three-year, euro110 billion ($126 billion) package of emergency loans from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.


In return, the center-left government is having to implement a strict austerity program that has seen it cut the pay of Greece's more than 700,000 civil servants, trim pensions, hike taxes and overhaul pension and employment rules.
The main target is to slash the budget deficit to 8.1 percent of gross domestic product by the end of the year, from the current 13.6 percent -- more than four times the limit for eurozone countries.


"What we are doing is so much than just putting our fiscal house in order," Papandreou said. "We are carrying out the kind of reforms that have not been attempted, let alone implemented, in generations."
"People still keep asking me: will you succeed?" he said.

"Yes, we will succeed -- and this will not simply be a Greek success. It will be a success for what Europe stands for: solidarity, cooperation, strength, peace and unity."
Ackermann called on Papandreou to "stay on course ... in the interest of your country, in the interest of Europe, and finally in the interest of all the citizens of this world."

(Bloomberg)


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Ridiamo, ma ci sarebbe da piangere ...

 

[tommy271]

Greece to Unveil 2011 Budget Proposal Forging Path to Bond-Market Return

By Maria Petrakis - Oct 4, 2010 2:35 AM GMT+0200 Mon Oct 04 00:35:55 GMT 2010



Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou will reveal today how he plans to offset lagging revenue growth in his 2011 budget to trim the European Union’s second-biggest budget gap and allow the country to resume borrowing in bond markets.

Papaconstantinou presents a proposal that seeks to achieve the deficit targets he pledged to the European Union in return for 110 billion euros ($150 billion) of emergency loans needed to avert default, while not extending the two-year recession. In the first eight months, revenue rose 3.4 percent, trailing the 13.7 percent pace Greece pledged to secure the EU-led rescue.

“It’s a very challenging budget,” said Nicholas Magginas, an economist at National Bank of Greece SA, the country’s largest lender. “It is increasingly likely that a less optimistic projection for revenue will be adopted. There will also be pressure to even that out with more spending cuts, which is the certain thing.”

Prime Minister George Papandreou, elected a year ago today, is trying to show investors that Greece can stay the course of a deficit-cutting drive that has slashed wages and pensions and led to street protests. Greece is seeking to return to bond markets next year after investor concerns that the country would default on 300 billion euros of debt led to a surge in borrowing costs and prompted the EU-led rescue.


China a Buyer


Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said on Oct. 2 that China plans to buy Greek bonds once Greece begins tapping international markets for funding again. China will support the country’s shipping industry, as Greece seeks investment to boost growth and emerge from a second year of recession, Wen said during a visit to Athens.

Greek bonds were Europe’s top performers last quarter, gaining for the first time since the debt crisis began, as the EU said the government has made a strong start to plans to reduce the budget gap to 8.1 percent of gross domestic product this year, from 13.6 percent last year. The EU sees the gap at 7.6 percent next year.

Greek bonds climbed 3.9 percent in the three months through September, the first quarterly gain since Papandreou’s socialist Pasok party came to power and revealed the deficit was twice a previous estimate and four times the EU limit. The revelations sparked the European debt crisis that hurt bonds of other high- deficit countries such as Ireland and Portugal and raised investor concerns about a breakup of Europe’s single currency.


Yield Premium


Investors still demand a yield premium of 781 basis points to lend to Greece rather than Germany for 10 years, the most of any euro nation.
Under the May aid agreement with the EU and International Monetary Fund, Papaconstantinou pledged 6.6 billion euros in extra revenue next year and spending cuts of 2.6 billion euros, or about 1 percent of GDP, to meet the deficit goals.

The EU and IMF in September said Greece is on track to meet this year’s deficit target. In the first eight months the central government’s shortfall shrank 32 percent as cuts in wages, pensions, investment and other expenses helped mask the lagging revenue, which was hurt by tax evasion and the shrinking economy.

Papaconstantinou says 2011 income will be bolstered by the full impact of the revenue-raising measures announced this year that included higher sales tax and levies on tobacco and alcohol.


Sales Taxes


With the economy set to shrink 4 percent this year and 2.6 percent next year, Papaconstantinou doesn’t have a lot of room to raise taxes. He’s already said he’s reconsidering a plan to increase sales taxes next year to raise 1 billion euros because it may hinder growth.
“I wouldn’t risk deepening the recession on further tax hikes,” said Diego Iscaro, at IHS Global Insight in London. “On the spending side, there are many things that should be done that wouldn’t have an impact on activity.”

Greece succeeding in its campaign to curb tax evasion and improve collection, may be key to achieving the deficit- reduction pledges, the IMF said. “The program’s credibility hinges critically on improving tax compliance,” the IMF said in a Sept. 14 report.

Greece has long struggled with collecting taxes and social-security contributions, the largest, permanent source of revenue. Revenue from taxes is among the lowest in the EU at 32.6 percent of GDP compared with the 39.3 percent average among the 27 EU nations, according to a 2009 Eurostat report.


‘No Sense’


“Further pursuit of fiscal adjustment makes no sense without an effective reduction of tax evasion and the substantive widening of the country’s tax base,” Alpha Bank SA said in a report. “Any lack of progress on this front could endanger the success of the country’s plan to exit the crisis.”
Parliament last week passed a new law to recoup some of the 30 billion euros owed in back taxes by an estimated 1.3 million Greeks, nearly 10 percent of the population. The new measure will impose 10-year sentences for under-reporting income tax and close businesses for 48 hours if they are found to not be issuing receipts.

“We are in need of every euro that will come from this measure,” Papaconstantinou said in parliament on Sept. 29.

(Bloomberg)

 

[Grisù]

Lo scenario delle banche greche nella descrizione di Moody's: da inizio anno, i greci hanno ritirato dalle loro banche l'equivalente dell'11% dei depositi complessivi... con i Non Performing Loans a quota 9% (in media, ma con le banche piccole che fanno peggio delle maggiori) l'intero sistema bancario è tagliato fuori dal mercato della liquidità ed ha come una risorsa per il funding lo sportello della BCE.

Se non ricordo male agosto ha rappresentato una prima inversione di tendenza con depositi in crescita.
Estendendo il discorso, il coinvolgimento bancario greco è una delle maggiori garanzie sistemiche, perchè un default dello stato porterebbe al conseguente fallimento delle banche greche e ad un effetto domino sul sistema bancario europeo.

Peraltro non che Portogallo e Irlanda stiano molto meglio, il sistema si regge solo grazie ai collaterali della BcE. In definitiva è uno schema ponzi con un investitore finale dal capitale infinito, le banche comprano nuove emissioni statali che utilizzano poi per finanziarsi con la BcE che, a meno di novità, non chiederà mai indietro i capitali reggendo il gioco.
Il fallimento farebbe cadere il castello di carta, improbabile avvenga ma comunque non impossibile nel caso di avvenimenti ad oggi poco prevedibili.

 

[Grisù]

The establishment of the European Systemic Risk Board: challenges and opportunities

The European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) will be established in January 2011 as the body responsible for the macro-prudential oversight of the EU financial system. It is mandated to actively monitor the various sources of risk to financial stability in the EU – across Member States and financial sectors – with due consideration of also global developments.

ECB: The establishment of the European Systemic Risk Board: challenges and opportunities

 

[tommy271]

Se non ricordo male agosto ha rappresentato una prima inversione di tendenza con depositi in crescita.
Estendendo il discorso, il coinvolgimento bancario greco è una delle maggiori garanzie sistemiche, perchè un default dello stato porterebbe al conseguente fallimento delle banche greche e ad un effetto domino sul sistema bancario europeo.

Peraltro non che Portogallo e Irlanda stiano molto meglio, il sistema si regge solo grazie ai collaterali della BcE. In definitiva è uno schema ponzi con un investitore finale dal capitale infinito, le banche comprano nuove emissioni statali che utilizzano poi per finanziarsi con la BcE che, a meno di novità, non chiederà mai indietro i capitali reggendo il gioco.
Il fallimento farebbe cadere il castello di carta, improbabile avvenga ma comunque non impossibile nel caso di avvenimenti ad oggi poco prevedibili.

Ciao, Grisù. Ad agosto c'è stata la prima inversione di tendenza con un incremento dei depositi.
Il dato si riferiva alle "banche commerciali".

Nonostante tutto credo che il sistema bancario greco sia messo come quello Portoghese, mentre metterei una pietra tombale su quello irlandese.
Le greche soffrono enormemente del deprezzamento dei TdS e della spirale negativa della recessione ellenica.
Però rimangono ancora appetibili e gli interessamenti da parte di competitor stranieri sono crescenti.

 

[tommy271]

Greece's austere 2011 budget to target 7.0 pct gap

Mon Oct 4, 2010 2:37am EDT

* Greece sets lower deficit goal in 2011 vs EU-draft budget
* Next year's budget gap seen at 7.0-7.1 pct of GDP
* This year's deficit seen at 7.8 pct vs 8.1 pct target


By George Georgiopoulos


ATHENS, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Greece on Monday is due to unveil its 2011 draft budget, aiming to cut its deficit below a 7.6 percent-of-GDP target set under a fiscal adjustment plan agreed with the International Monetary Fund and its euro zone peers.
More austerity is expected as the heavily indebted country continues to dig out of its debt crisis in hopes of eventually normalising its borrowing costs.


"We are on a path of aggressive fiscal adjustment. In just one year we did the biggest deficit reduction ever managed by a euro zone country," Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou told Sunday's To Vima newspaper in an interview.
On Friday, a senior government official told Reuters the socialist government would target a deficit of 7.0-7.1 percent of gross domestic product next year.


Under the terms of a 110 billion euro bailout agreed with the IMF and its euro zone partners in May, Greece was to cut its budget gap by 50 basis points to 7.6 percent of GDP in 2011, a lighter task compared to this year's 5.5 percentage point fiscal correction, meant to shrink the deficit to 8.1 percent of GDP.
The draft budget, which will be submitted to parliament on Monday, projects a deficit of 7.8 percent of GDP for this year, below an initial 8.1 percent target, largely thanks to the economy faring slightly better than expected.

"The main reason for a better-than-expected 2010 deficit is the bigger nominal GDP," the official said, adding that GDP would reach 236 billion euros against an initial forecast of 231 billion.
Austerity policies to slash deficits, including cuts in public sector pay, pensions and higher taxes have deepened the recession this year but policymakers expect the economy, which accounts for about 2.5 percent of the euro zone, to shrink by less than 4 percent.


Despite the slump, consumer inflation has jumped to a 13-year high of 5.5 percent, partly due to higher value added tax rates, giving nominal GDP a boost.
Greece's austerity drive will continue as next year's budget is likely to rely on property taxes, an amnesty on building violations, new gambling licenses and a one-off tax on profitable businesses for the third year in a row.


Officials have said the government is also mulling raising the reduced VAT rate to 13 percent from 11 percent to address weak revenue growth.
Athens raised the main VAT rate by four percentage points to 23 percent this year but eight months into 2010 revenues trail a 13.7 percent growth target, up just 3.4 percent.

 

[tommy271]

Non è mia abitudine inserire foto o video, faccio un'eccezione: un commento da Al Jazeera

YouTube - China offers to buy Greek debt!

 

[tommy271]

Chinese Premier Leaves Greece for Belgium

2010-10-04 14:40:16
Xinhua Web Editor: Zheng Zhi


Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao left here for Belgium on Monday after concluding a three-day official visit to Greece.
During the visit, Wen held talks with Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou and Greek President Karolos Papoulias respectively and delivered a speech at the Greek parliament.
The two countries also issued a joint statement on deepening comprehensive strategic partnership and inked 13 deals, which cover areas concerning cooperation in maritime transportation, loan, telecommunication, export and cultural exchanges.
The Chinese premier is scheduled to attend the 8th Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) and the 13th China-European Union (EU) summit in Brussels, and visit Belgium, Italy and Turkey.



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Ed ora la parola ai mercati ...

 

[ferdo]

Chinese Premier Leaves Greece for Belgium

...
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Ed ora la parola ai mercati ...

che si stanno comportando bene