Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (44 lettori)

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ferdo

Utente Senior
Al momento, il segno verde è su quasi tutto l'arco delle scadenze.
Buon segno.

segnalavo perchè pochi minuti fa erano tutte più basse, e improvvisamente sono arrivati gli ordini e maggiore denaro, quindi mi chiedevo a fronte di quale nuova notizia, o come mai i MM si svegliano così tardi al mattino ;)
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
segnalavo perchè pochi minuti fa erano tutte più basse, e improvvisamente sono arrivati gli ordini e maggiore denaro, quindi mi chiedevo a fronte di quale nuova notizia, o come mai i MM si svegliano così tardi al mattino ;)

Importantissima è la notizia della possibile proroga per il rimborso dei prestiti al FMI ottenuti quest'anno (e nei prossimi anni).
Oggettivamente, per la restituzione prevista nel 2014, è compito molto impegnativo (e arduo) per la Grecia.
Una proroga darebbe a tutto il sistema ellenico una garanzia migliore per uscire dal pantano.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Coming quarters will determine outcome of clash between optimists and pessimists
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Living standards may fall to levels not seen in decades, according to some downbeat estimates


By Dimitris Kontogiannis - Kathimerini English Edition




It is a clash of estimates and perhaps, in some cases, a clash of wills. The camps of optimists and pessimists differ over the future of the Greek economy as the country heads into its own winter of discontent with rising unemployment and suppressed incomes but some good numbers to show on cutting its budget deficit.

It may seem academic at this point since Greece is just entering the six month of a three-year program signed with the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund in May but the implications over whether the optimists or pessimists are right are vast for the average Greek citizen.

On the one hand, the optimists like to believe Greece will be able to slash its budget deficit next year to more than half what it was in 2009, return to growth in 2012 or even the second half of 2011 and put the public debt-to-GDP ratio on a downward path from 2014 onward.

Although they reject any suggestion of restructuring the country’s public debt, they are unofficially preparing for it, working on the likely extension of the average maturity of the loans given to Greece by the eurozone and the IMF.
The Greek government, the IMF, the European Commission, the ECB, officials from other countries, some major European banks holding Greek government bonds in their portfolios and some other banks which may hope to be awarded projects from the state simply buy the optimists’ story.

On the other hand, the pessimists see the economy slipping into a deeper recession and returning to low to moderate growth rates no earlier than 2013-14 and being burdened by a higher debt-to-GDP ratio than in 2009-10. The country may have lowered its budget deficit-to-GDP ratio by then but the key primary budget balance will be either in deficit or a small surplus, making debt dynamics unsustainable, they predict.

The pessimists believe an outright default or a restructuring of the public debt, involving a haircut of 30 to 50 percent in the nominal value of Greek government bonds, as being inevitable.
Among the pessimists, one finds US banks and others with limited knowledge of the Greek economy and investment funds which are likely to have taken bets against local bonds and stocks. One also finds some Greek company executives who think it will take a long time for the country to get rid of excesses going back decades and the mismanagement of the current crisis by the government.

There is no doubt that the performance of the economy will determine which camp is right or wrong.
The government seems committed to the policies outlined in the memorandum and the EC, ECB and IMF seem determined to provide financing and help the country as much as possible provided it mostly sticks to the fiscal and reform policies outlined in the program. This may show up in meeting or even beating the budget deficit reduction targets and help Greece partly regain the confidence of some market participants.

However, it will be very difficult to meet the fiscal budget goals if the economy remains in the doldrums in the quarters ahead. At this point, one might say there is a clear risk it may do so, judging from the descriptions of the situation in the real economy given by businessmen, bankers and others.

If the optimists are right and the implementation of the economic policy program goes smoothly, the living standards of the average Greek citizen will return to the 2008 level in 2014-15. At that point, the public debt-to-GDP ratio will be higher than in 2008 and likely similar to the debt ratio in 2010-11 but the budget deficit will be smaller than 3.0 percent of GDP.
In other words, the average Greek will have sacrificed four to five years of his life, hoping the economy will be based on stronger foundations to be on a sustainable upward path in the years ahead.

This is not a short period of time, especially for those 45 to 55 who would have liked to put some savings on the side for retirement. With the economy squeezed and fewer jobs available, these people may have to draw down their lifetime savings and retire with the basic pension of 360 euros per month plus any additional supplement.

It may be better for younger generations provided the structural reforms and fiscal discipline lead to a better allocation of resources, jacking up the potential GDP growth rate and providing sustainable high growth rates. However, this cannot be taken for granted.
Things will get much worse if the pessimists turn out to be right. Depending on who is more downbeat, the drop in the standard of living could fall to where it was in the 1990s or the 80s or even to where it was in the late 70s. Some local pessimists even envisage many citizens leaving Athens and other major cities to go back to their villages where living costs are lower and taking over jobs done now by immigrants.

Undoubtedly, it is too early to make a call on which side is right although one could hope the pessimists are dead wrong in their forecasts. It all comes down to the performance of the economy where the signs are getting worse and worse week by week and of course the question on whether Greece could have avoided going to the EU and IMF for financing despite its high debt-to-GDP ratio and large 2009 budget deficit as other eurozone countries did.
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tommy271

Forumer storico
Athens draws praise for its austerity drive
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ECB official reveals Greek loan repayments might be pushed back


As the government drew international praise over the weekend for its tenacity in sticking to a tough austerity drive aimed at reviving the debt-stricken economy, speculation mounted over a conversation between Eurogroup chief Jean-Claude Juncker and an unidentified Greek prime minister regarding the difficulty of uprooting widespread corruption in Greece.


Meanwhile a senior board member of the European Central Bank, one of Greece’s three international creditors, said that the International Monetary Fund is considering pushing back Greek loan repayments to after 2012. “There are mechanisms in the IMF to prolong packages,” Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said during an IMF-World Bank summit in Washington.


At a news conference in Washington on Saturday, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF’s managing director, said that the Greek government’s efforts to plug a gaping budget deficit were progressing well. “Today Greece is clearly on track and that’s the most important thing that has to be underlined,” Strauss-Kahn said.



The chief of the IMF noted however that last week’s revision of deficit and debt figures from previous years was not so encouraging. “It is very unfortunate that the figures are going to be revised,” he remarked. Speaking on the sidelines of the IMF summit in Washington, Greece’s Finance Minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou insisted that his administration is on target to meet fiscal targets despite the data revision. He noted that the spread between Greek government bonds and benchmark German bunds had narrowed to 200 basis points over the past few days.


In a related development, it emerged yesterday that officials from Eurostat, the European Commission’s statistics service, are due in Athens this week to determine the true extent of the debt and deficit figures.
Meanwhile media speculation mounted about comments made by Juncker on Friday, according to which an unnamed Greek prime minister claimed to be struggling with deep-seated corruption.



Juncker said that a conversation with the unidentified premier about possible approaches to the problem had prompted the latter to remark, “I am governing a corrupt country.” Costas Simitis, who was prime minister from 1996 to 2004, yesterday described Juncker’s comments as “nonsense.” Aides of former Premier Costas Karamanlis also denied that he was the subject of Juncker’s comments. Speaking in Washington, Juncker also claimed that top EU officials had been aware of Greece’s financial problems for years but had kept quiet until the crisis broke. “The Greek crisis could have been avoided, but not starting last year, starting two or three decades ago,” he said.

(Kathimerini.gr)
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tommy271

Forumer storico
Grecia, FMI pronto a dilazionare rimborso prestiti


(Teleborsa) - Roma, 11 ott - Il Fondo monetario internazionale sarebbe pronto a concedere più tempo per il rimborso dei prestiti che i Paesi Europei hanno concesso al Paese Ellenico. Unica condizione che i gli stessi Paesi Europei siano concordi. A riverarlo all'agenzia Bloomberg Dominique Strauss-Kahn, leader dell'FMI.

Per Strauss-Kahn, il Governo di Atene sta "facendo esattamente quello che deve fare" per controllare la spesa pubblica e raggiungere i target che gli sono stati imposti. Tuttavia Strauss-Kahn evidenzia che sull'eventuale dilazione inciderà in maniera rilevante lo stato dell'economia globale. "Se i Paesi europei decideranno di fare qualcosa," ha detto Strauss Kahn," noi faremo lo stesso."



***
Questa la notizia del giorno, in italiano ...
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Greece: Latest opinion poll results

11. October 2010. | 10:28
Source: ANA



The difference in support between ruling PASOK and main opposition New Democracy stands at 14.5 percent, according to a monthly poll carried out by the firm Public Issue and published in the Sunday edition of the daily "Kathimerini".


The difference in support between ruling PASOK and main opposition New Democracy stands at 14.5 percent, according to a monthly poll carried out by the firm Public Issue and published in the Sunday edition of the daily "Kathimerini".

The poll shows PASOK losing 1.5 percentile points since September, its lowest 12-month figure, or 42.5 percent, while ND gains one percentage point to reach 28 percent of respondents' preferences.
The Communist Party of Greece (KKE) garnered 11 percent, while the Popular Orthodox Rally (LA.OS) party garners 5.5 percent. The Coalition of the Left party stands at 4.5 percent, while the out-of-Parliament Ecologists are picked by 2.5 percent of respondents.

As regards the question who is best suited for prime minister, George Papandreou leads with 40 percent as opposed to 21 percent for Antonis Samaras. Moreover, 29 percent of respondents believe that the best government for the country is that of PASOK; 9 percent is the figure for ND, whereas a significant 59 percent of respondents picked "neither of the two".

Another poll by the statistics faculty of the Athens Economic University, published in the newspaper "Free Sunday", gives a 3.4-percent lead to ND's candidate for the Attica region, Vassilis Kikilias, over PASOK candidate Yiannis Sgouros.

Kikilias polls 21.7 percent; Sgouros garners 18.3 percent and now independent Yiannis Dimaras 16.4 percent. "No one" is preferred by 15.9 percent, while the remaining candidates received support below 8 percent.

On the question of who is expected to win, Sgouros leads with 31.3 percent, followed by Kikilias with 21.4 percent and Yiannis Dimaras, with 14.9 percent.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
German 10-Year Yield Near 5-Week Low on U.S. Easing Speculation

October 11, 2010, 4:19 AM EDT


By Matthew Brown


Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- German 10-year government bond yields were within 5 basis points of the lowest level in more than a month on speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will step up asset purchases.
German two-year yields were 2 basis points away from the lowest in 10 days. Greek 10-year bonds were little changed relative to benchmark German bunds after International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said the IMF will give Greece more time to repay loans if European nations do so first. Slovakia plans to sell floating-rate bonds due Oct. 2013.


“Investors are expecting further measures from the Fed at its November meeting, and that has been the key factor driving markets in recent weeks,” said Michael Leister, a bond strategist at WestLB AG in Dusseldorf. “We are likely to stay range-bound for now.”


German 10-year bunds yields were little changed at 2.54 percent as of 7:58 a.m. in London. The 2.25 percent security due September 2020 traded at 99.96. Two-year yields were 1 basis point lower at 0.78 percent.
Greek 10-year bonds yielded 751 basis points more than benchmark German bunds from 752 points at the end of last week. Irish 10-year government bonds were also little changed, leaving the so-called yield spread to bunds at 423 basis points. The Spanish-German spread stayed at 174 basis points.


Greek officials are doing “exactly what they need to do” to rein in spending and meet the benchmarks set out as a condition of aid, Strauss-Kahn said in a television interview with Bloomberg HT yesterday. Whether Greece needs the extension depends on the state of the global economy, he said.
German bonds have returned 2.2 percent since June 30, compared with 3.2 percent for U.S. Treasuries and 4 percent for U.K. gilts, according to indexes compiled by Bloomberg and the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
EURO GOVT-Greek yield spread, CDS narrow

LONDON | Mon Oct 11, 2010 4:44am EDT


LONDON Oct 11 (Reuters) - The premium investors demand to hold Greek government bonds rather than German Bunds fell on Monday following comments from the International Monetary Fund that bailout loans could be extended.
The cost of insuring against a sovereign default also declined.
The IMF said on Sunday that bailout loans to Greece could be stretched out or replaced if refinancing worries lingered in markets, but it currently has no concrete plans to do so. [ID:nN10280920].
"No shock, but good to hear nonetheless," Nomura rate strategists said.
The Greek/German 10-year yield spread narrowed 27 basis points to 740 bps, led by a fall in Greek 10-year yields GR10YT=TWEB of 25 bps to 9.679 percent.
Five-year CDS prices fell 25 bps to 695 bps, according to Markit.
The price means it costs 695,000 euros to insure 10 million euros of the country's debt against default.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
FT: US Role To Greek Bailout Crucial



US concerns on the risks of Greece’s fiscal woes to global financial stability was one of the drivers behind the rescue mechanisms designed by the EU, the FT reports.

The Americans became more and more frantic,” Alistair Darling, then the UK chancellor who participated in high level meetings with US officials, told the FT in an interview.

“In simple terms, they started saying, ‘What the hell’s going on over there? You guys are being incredibly complacent.’”

He notes that the Americans urged EU to sort this out and reassure the markets, “or else contagion will spread like wildfire.”

“It’s a fair assessment that the US agitation did help to bring things along,”
George Papaconstantinou, Greece’s finance minister acknowledged.

(Capital.gr)
 
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