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tommy271
Forumer storico
Greece Veering Off Target
By Charles Forelle
Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou mused on a television program last night that his country might take longer than originally thought to pay back the €110 billion it borrowed from other euro-zone nations and the IMF.
Now why might he want to do that?
One answer comes in Greece’s monthly budget-execution reports, the most recent of which was released late last night. The upshot: Greece is very far from reaching the government-revenue targets built in to its deficit-reduction plan. Greece simply isn’t raking in enough cash. (On the plus side, at least revenue in September didn’t fall, as it did in August.)
Some figures, all from the “ordinary budget,” which is the vast bulk of it:
In the first nine months of this year, Greece took in €36.5 billion. In the same period last year, it took in €35.2 billion. So it’s running roughly €1.2 billion ahead of schedule. Problem is, it needs to end the year up by €6.6 billion if it’s to meet its original plan. That will require a big acceleration in the fourth quarter.
How big?
Greece brought in €13.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2009. It’ll need 40% more–€18.6 billion–this time around.
That is, needless to say, all but impossible.
Greece has tried to make the task a bit easier by moving the goalposts. Last month, it released a fresh set of targets after an August “review.”
Instead of shooting for €55.1 billion in revenue this year, Greece is hoping for €52.7 billion. That implies the fourth-quarter jumps needs only to be 22%, which is still an awfully long stretch.
Still with us? Let’s go back to those moving goalposts.
Greece’s central-government deficit was €30.8 billion last year. (Wow!) This figure appears to exclude certain military expenditures, as well as costs related to social-security funds and local governments, but it’s a very good proxy for the overall fiscal hole.
Basically, Greece wants to chop about €12 billion off that number. Of the €12 billion, €1.5 billion will come from messing around with the “Public Investment Program.” That leaves €10.5 billion.
Greece’s original plan–hammered out with EU authorities during the spring’s bailout mania–whacked €4 billion off expenditures and added some €6.5 billion in revenue. That gets you to €10.5 billion.
As it became clear that the revenue goal was a fantasy, Greece changed it. Now the plan is to add €4.2 billion revenue and cut €5.6 billion in expenses.
Astute readers whose brains haven’t exploded will note that that doesn’t total €10.5 billion.
Yet in a Sept. 4 press release, Greece trumpeted that the new plan actually produces a total deficit slightly below the original plan. How’s that happen?
Recall the ancillary stuff not part of the central government. One chunk is spending on military equipment; under EU accounting rules, such purchases must be recorded when gear is delivered. In its new plan, Greece cuts €1.6 billion off the military-equipment delivery number. That pulls the total deficit down below the original projection, even though the central government figure is higher. It isn’t clear if Greece is swearing off the defense purchases, or just delaying them.
Whether Greece does meet its targets–even the closer ones–is hard to foresee. The country has had better luck cutting spending than raising revenue, so it remains possible that a fourth-quarter binge of austerity may save the day.
But one can see why Mr. Papaconstantinou might want some more time.
Greece Wrestles With Deficit, But Revenue is Hard to Pin Down - Real Time Brussels - WSJ
***
By Charles Forelle
Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou mused on a television program last night that his country might take longer than originally thought to pay back the €110 billion it borrowed from other euro-zone nations and the IMF.
Now why might he want to do that?
One answer comes in Greece’s monthly budget-execution reports, the most recent of which was released late last night. The upshot: Greece is very far from reaching the government-revenue targets built in to its deficit-reduction plan. Greece simply isn’t raking in enough cash. (On the plus side, at least revenue in September didn’t fall, as it did in August.)
Some figures, all from the “ordinary budget,” which is the vast bulk of it:
In the first nine months of this year, Greece took in €36.5 billion. In the same period last year, it took in €35.2 billion. So it’s running roughly €1.2 billion ahead of schedule. Problem is, it needs to end the year up by €6.6 billion if it’s to meet its original plan. That will require a big acceleration in the fourth quarter.
How big?
Greece brought in €13.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2009. It’ll need 40% more–€18.6 billion–this time around.
That is, needless to say, all but impossible.
Greece has tried to make the task a bit easier by moving the goalposts. Last month, it released a fresh set of targets after an August “review.”
Instead of shooting for €55.1 billion in revenue this year, Greece is hoping for €52.7 billion. That implies the fourth-quarter jumps needs only to be 22%, which is still an awfully long stretch.
Still with us? Let’s go back to those moving goalposts.
Greece’s central-government deficit was €30.8 billion last year. (Wow!) This figure appears to exclude certain military expenditures, as well as costs related to social-security funds and local governments, but it’s a very good proxy for the overall fiscal hole.
Basically, Greece wants to chop about €12 billion off that number. Of the €12 billion, €1.5 billion will come from messing around with the “Public Investment Program.” That leaves €10.5 billion.
Greece’s original plan–hammered out with EU authorities during the spring’s bailout mania–whacked €4 billion off expenditures and added some €6.5 billion in revenue. That gets you to €10.5 billion.
As it became clear that the revenue goal was a fantasy, Greece changed it. Now the plan is to add €4.2 billion revenue and cut €5.6 billion in expenses.
Astute readers whose brains haven’t exploded will note that that doesn’t total €10.5 billion.
Yet in a Sept. 4 press release, Greece trumpeted that the new plan actually produces a total deficit slightly below the original plan. How’s that happen?
Recall the ancillary stuff not part of the central government. One chunk is spending on military equipment; under EU accounting rules, such purchases must be recorded when gear is delivered. In its new plan, Greece cuts €1.6 billion off the military-equipment delivery number. That pulls the total deficit down below the original projection, even though the central government figure is higher. It isn’t clear if Greece is swearing off the defense purchases, or just delaying them.
Whether Greece does meet its targets–even the closer ones–is hard to foresee. The country has had better luck cutting spending than raising revenue, so it remains possible that a fourth-quarter binge of austerity may save the day.
But one can see why Mr. Papaconstantinou might want some more time.
Greece Wrestles With Deficit, But Revenue is Hard to Pin Down - Real Time Brussels - WSJ
***
tommy271
Forumer storico
Greek Stocks: Jumbo, Marfin, National Bank of Greece, Terna Move
By Tom Stoukas - Oct 12, 2010 5:10 PM GMT+0200 Tue Oct 12 15:10:24 GMT 2010
Greece’s benchmark ASE Index dropped 6.08, or 0.4 percent, to 1,542.62 at the 5:20 p.m. close in Athens, paring yesterday’s 1.3 percent gain.
The FTSE/ASE 20 Index of the country’s biggest companies dropped 0.3 percent to 754.99. The Cypriot General Index added 2.2 percent to 1,302.9.
The following shares were among the most active in Athens trading today. Symbols are in parentheses.
Jumbo SA (BELA GA) rose 1.1 percent to 5.51 euros. The Greek toy and baby products retailer was upgraded to “accumulate” from “hold” and its share-price estimate was raised to 6.20 euros from 5.90 euros at Marfin Analysis.
Marfin Investment Group (MIG GA) rose 2.3 percent to 88 euro cents, its second day of gains. The biggest buyout fund in southeast Europe announced that Hygeia SA acquired a 100 percent stake in three Turkish hospitals, according to an Athens-bourse filing today. Marfin Investment is the major shareholder of the health services provider.
National Bank of Greece SA (ETE GA) added 1.1 percent to 8.14 euros. Greece’s biggest lender said its 1.8 billion-euro ($2.5 billion) combined rights and convertible bonds offering was oversubscribed by 1.83 times.
Terna Energy SA (TENERGY GA) jumped 7.5 percent to 3.01 euros, the biggest gain in more than two weeks. The Greek renewable-energy company acquired 27,000 of its own shares on Oct. 8, according to an Athens bourse filing.
(Bloomberg)
By Tom Stoukas - Oct 12, 2010 5:10 PM GMT+0200 Tue Oct 12 15:10:24 GMT 2010
Greece’s benchmark ASE Index dropped 6.08, or 0.4 percent, to 1,542.62 at the 5:20 p.m. close in Athens, paring yesterday’s 1.3 percent gain.
The FTSE/ASE 20 Index of the country’s biggest companies dropped 0.3 percent to 754.99. The Cypriot General Index added 2.2 percent to 1,302.9.
The following shares were among the most active in Athens trading today. Symbols are in parentheses.
Jumbo SA (BELA GA) rose 1.1 percent to 5.51 euros. The Greek toy and baby products retailer was upgraded to “accumulate” from “hold” and its share-price estimate was raised to 6.20 euros from 5.90 euros at Marfin Analysis.
Marfin Investment Group (MIG GA) rose 2.3 percent to 88 euro cents, its second day of gains. The biggest buyout fund in southeast Europe announced that Hygeia SA acquired a 100 percent stake in three Turkish hospitals, according to an Athens-bourse filing today. Marfin Investment is the major shareholder of the health services provider.
National Bank of Greece SA (ETE GA) added 1.1 percent to 8.14 euros. Greece’s biggest lender said its 1.8 billion-euro ($2.5 billion) combined rights and convertible bonds offering was oversubscribed by 1.83 times.
Terna Energy SA (TENERGY GA) jumped 7.5 percent to 3.01 euros, the biggest gain in more than two weeks. The Greek renewable-energy company acquired 27,000 of its own shares on Oct. 8, according to an Athens bourse filing.
(Bloomberg)
g.ln
Triplo Panico: comprare
mietitura
Sono certo che fra non molto altri amici parteciperanno alla mietitura
. Anche oggi si sale benino, o, meglio, bene, anzi benissimo! 
Ciao, ciao, Giuseppe
Sono certo che fra non molto altri amici parteciperanno alla mietitura
. Anche oggi si sale benino, o, meglio, bene, anzi benissimo! Ciao, ciao, Giuseppe
tommy271
Forumer storico
Israel to Military Exercise for a Possible Iran Operation
The Israeli and Greek Air forces started a joint four-day exercise code-named Minoas 2010 over Crete and the western Peloponnese Peninsula,where as same as Iran coasts, debka file 's military sources report.
Both areas are characterized by long coastal strips and high mountain peaks rising as high a 2,400 meters and extending into the surrounding Ionian and Mediterranean Seas. The chosen area is drawing attention with its similarities with Persian Gulf and strait of Hormuz.
Taking part are 16 Apache and Black Hawk UH-60 assault helicopters - eight Israeli and eight Greek. Over the weekend, the Israeli choppers flew directly from home base to the big Greek Suda air complex on the island of Grete. They were refueled by the Israel air force in flight as part of the exercise.
Greece and Israel began limited military co-operation in 1994, and the first joint maneuvers involving combat aircraft took place in 2008.
Tuesday, 12 October 2010
(turkishweekly.net)
***
Al momento le relazioni tra Grecia e Iran sono molto buone.
The Israeli and Greek Air forces started a joint four-day exercise code-named Minoas 2010 over Crete and the western Peloponnese Peninsula,where as same as Iran coasts, debka file 's military sources report.
Both areas are characterized by long coastal strips and high mountain peaks rising as high a 2,400 meters and extending into the surrounding Ionian and Mediterranean Seas. The chosen area is drawing attention with its similarities with Persian Gulf and strait of Hormuz.
Taking part are 16 Apache and Black Hawk UH-60 assault helicopters - eight Israeli and eight Greek. Over the weekend, the Israeli choppers flew directly from home base to the big Greek Suda air complex on the island of Grete. They were refueled by the Israel air force in flight as part of the exercise.
Greece and Israel began limited military co-operation in 1994, and the first joint maneuvers involving combat aircraft took place in 2008.
Tuesday, 12 October 2010
(turkishweekly.net)
***
Al momento le relazioni tra Grecia e Iran sono molto buone.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Fiscal discipline makes Greece well-placed for recovery
By Michael Massourakis
Published: October 12 2010 16:38 | Last updated: October 12 2010 16:38
If a good beginning is half the work done, the Greeks have risen to the occasion. In 2010, the first year of the fiscal consolidation effort supported with €110bn from the triumvirate of the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the European Central Bank, the budget deficit seems to have been halved, currently standing south of 8 per cent of gross domestic product.
Moreover, the recently unveiled preliminary 2011 budget provides for a better than expected 7 per cent of GDP deficit target versus 7.6 per cent in the original plan. Even more importantly, 2011 may mark the beginning of an arduous process of building surpluses. Starting from a primary deficit of 2.2 per cent of GDP this year, a small primary surplus may materialise next year, especially if growth turns out to be less negative than assumed in the plan.
The 2011 budget seems credible. It relies on further reducing state primary spending as state entities are being streamlined. To boost state net revenue, new as yet untapped sources, including green and gaming taxes, are to be exploited while further hikes on property and consumption taxes are envisioned. Moreover, earnest efforts to arrest tax evasion will also start biting next year, bringing in more revenue. All in all, a difficult proposition but not unachievable.
Any pick-up in economic activity is going to translate into faster fiscal consolidation and less onerous debt dynamics as the adjustment measures will start yielding better results. With nominal GDP growth over 2010-11 revised to substantially less negative levels, the deconstruction of debt dynamics has begun. Three months into the programme, the debt is no longer stabilised at 150 per cent of GDP but rather at 144 per cent. Next stop will be an upward revision in real GDP growth.
Structural adjustment will start paying growth dividends, enabling Greece to exploit its location advantage, with foreign direct investment acting as a catalyst. Judging from the dust the Qataris and the Chinese leave behind as they scramble to invest in Greece, as well as the more than €20bn in Community structural funds in the pipeline, a resurgence of investment may not be such a far-fetched scenario. An imminent and fully-fledged state asset management and privatisation plan may help thrust the economy forward.
Where does all this leave us with respect to default? As long as the government stays the course, default can likely be avoided. If it throws in the towel, call it convergence fatigue or social unrest, an orderly debt restructuring will have to be negotiated. But will such a move give rise to a new presumably less demanding austerity package? The answer is probably not because the need to generate substantial primary surpluses earlier than later remains intact. And if it were to result in policy relaxation, would there be any credibility left, either to Greece or the triumvirate? Would the markets ever be convinced that this time around things may turn out to be different? I do not think so. If this is the case, Greece has no other alternative except continuing on the implementation of the original programme so as to raise primary surpluses of about 6 percentage points of GDP.
Will a highly-indebted country such as Greece ever be able to raise the money in the market to repay the triumvirate over a short period of time? To answer this question, however, one has to consider whether Greece will arrive ultimately at primary surpluses that are perceived as sustainable. If it does, Greece will have to transform itself into a brand new country and, as such, it may be able to borrow the large sums required, maybe with a little help from its friends but under no condition at the expense of relaxing the programme’s objectives.
Greece will be saddled with a high level of debt to GDP ratio for years to come. As such, Greece will be on the radar, more or less, on a permanent basis, with the markets no longer willing to give it the benefit of the doubt. Any relapse would be catastrophic as hard-won credibility after years and years of fiscal discipline will then evaporate in an instance. Already, market sentiment has improved markedly, with 10-year bond spreads having come down by more than 200 basis points at around the 700 level. This is no accident. It has been earned on the back of painful cuts in incomes and far reaching pension reform. This improvement has to be nurtured so as to continue.
Does the political establishment understand the precariousness of the situation so as to maintain fiscal discipline at all cost? Politicians in Greece should be put to task to make Greece an example of fiscal discipline. They have already failed the Greek people miserably. They can no longer afford not to deal once and for all with tax evasion and patronage issues and to eradicate rent seeking activities of interest groups in the population. Others managed to do it. Why not Greece?
Michael Massourakis is chief economist at Alpha Bank
FT.com / Markets / Insight - Fiscal?discipline makes Greece well-placed for recovery
By Michael Massourakis
Published: October 12 2010 16:38 | Last updated: October 12 2010 16:38
If a good beginning is half the work done, the Greeks have risen to the occasion. In 2010, the first year of the fiscal consolidation effort supported with €110bn from the triumvirate of the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the European Central Bank, the budget deficit seems to have been halved, currently standing south of 8 per cent of gross domestic product.
Moreover, the recently unveiled preliminary 2011 budget provides for a better than expected 7 per cent of GDP deficit target versus 7.6 per cent in the original plan. Even more importantly, 2011 may mark the beginning of an arduous process of building surpluses. Starting from a primary deficit of 2.2 per cent of GDP this year, a small primary surplus may materialise next year, especially if growth turns out to be less negative than assumed in the plan.
The 2011 budget seems credible. It relies on further reducing state primary spending as state entities are being streamlined. To boost state net revenue, new as yet untapped sources, including green and gaming taxes, are to be exploited while further hikes on property and consumption taxes are envisioned. Moreover, earnest efforts to arrest tax evasion will also start biting next year, bringing in more revenue. All in all, a difficult proposition but not unachievable.
Any pick-up in economic activity is going to translate into faster fiscal consolidation and less onerous debt dynamics as the adjustment measures will start yielding better results. With nominal GDP growth over 2010-11 revised to substantially less negative levels, the deconstruction of debt dynamics has begun. Three months into the programme, the debt is no longer stabilised at 150 per cent of GDP but rather at 144 per cent. Next stop will be an upward revision in real GDP growth.
Structural adjustment will start paying growth dividends, enabling Greece to exploit its location advantage, with foreign direct investment acting as a catalyst. Judging from the dust the Qataris and the Chinese leave behind as they scramble to invest in Greece, as well as the more than €20bn in Community structural funds in the pipeline, a resurgence of investment may not be such a far-fetched scenario. An imminent and fully-fledged state asset management and privatisation plan may help thrust the economy forward.
Where does all this leave us with respect to default? As long as the government stays the course, default can likely be avoided. If it throws in the towel, call it convergence fatigue or social unrest, an orderly debt restructuring will have to be negotiated. But will such a move give rise to a new presumably less demanding austerity package? The answer is probably not because the need to generate substantial primary surpluses earlier than later remains intact. And if it were to result in policy relaxation, would there be any credibility left, either to Greece or the triumvirate? Would the markets ever be convinced that this time around things may turn out to be different? I do not think so. If this is the case, Greece has no other alternative except continuing on the implementation of the original programme so as to raise primary surpluses of about 6 percentage points of GDP.
Will a highly-indebted country such as Greece ever be able to raise the money in the market to repay the triumvirate over a short period of time? To answer this question, however, one has to consider whether Greece will arrive ultimately at primary surpluses that are perceived as sustainable. If it does, Greece will have to transform itself into a brand new country and, as such, it may be able to borrow the large sums required, maybe with a little help from its friends but under no condition at the expense of relaxing the programme’s objectives.
Greece will be saddled with a high level of debt to GDP ratio for years to come. As such, Greece will be on the radar, more or less, on a permanent basis, with the markets no longer willing to give it the benefit of the doubt. Any relapse would be catastrophic as hard-won credibility after years and years of fiscal discipline will then evaporate in an instance. Already, market sentiment has improved markedly, with 10-year bond spreads having come down by more than 200 basis points at around the 700 level. This is no accident. It has been earned on the back of painful cuts in incomes and far reaching pension reform. This improvement has to be nurtured so as to continue.
Does the political establishment understand the precariousness of the situation so as to maintain fiscal discipline at all cost? Politicians in Greece should be put to task to make Greece an example of fiscal discipline. They have already failed the Greek people miserably. They can no longer afford not to deal once and for all with tax evasion and patronage issues and to eradicate rent seeking activities of interest groups in the population. Others managed to do it. Why not Greece?
Michael Massourakis is chief economist at Alpha Bank
FT.com / Markets / Insight - Fiscal?discipline makes Greece well-placed for recovery
Grisù
Forumer attivo
Greece Veering Off Target
Greece Wrestles With Deficit, But Revenue is Hard to Pin Down - Real Time Brussels - WSJ
***
Come al solito non sanno di cosa parlano, se gli interessi prendessero una parabola discendente il pagamento della componente BCE/FMI potrebbe anche essere coperto da una maggiore emissione a breve.
Continuano a sparare fesserie a raffica da molti mesi, farebbero meglio ad dedicarsi ad altro, la finanza non è proprio il loro mestiere. :zappo:
tommy271
Forumer storico
sethi
Forumer storico
Grisù
Forumer attivo
Stendiamo un velo pietoso, se questo figuro diverrà presidente del Bce saranno guai... 
Bce, programma acquisto bond va eliminato - Weber
FRANCOFORTE, 12 ottobre (Reuters) - Il programma di acquisto di titoli della Banca centrale europea non ha funzionato e andrebbe eliminato. A dirlo è il governatore della Bundesbank, Axel Weber, da sempre oppositore dell'iniziativa partita a maggio e destinata a sostenere il mercato dei titoli di Stato dell'euro.
"Non ci sono prove che gli acquisti di attività abbiano avuto effetti significativi sulla media dei rendimenti dei titoli di Stato dell'area euro", afferma Weber nel testo di un discorso pronunciato a New York.
"Dal momento che i rischi associati ai programmi su attività di mercato superano i benefici, questi acquisti di titoli andrebbero eliminati in maniera permanente".
Bce, programma acquisto bond va eliminato - Weber
FRANCOFORTE, 12 ottobre (Reuters) - Il programma di acquisto di titoli della Banca centrale europea non ha funzionato e andrebbe eliminato. A dirlo è il governatore della Bundesbank, Axel Weber, da sempre oppositore dell'iniziativa partita a maggio e destinata a sostenere il mercato dei titoli di Stato dell'euro.
"Non ci sono prove che gli acquisti di attività abbiano avuto effetti significativi sulla media dei rendimenti dei titoli di Stato dell'area euro", afferma Weber nel testo di un discorso pronunciato a New York.
"Dal momento che i rischi associati ai programmi su attività di mercato superano i benefici, questi acquisti di titoli andrebbero eliminati in maniera permanente".
- Stato
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