Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1

[tommy271]

Germany Press:EU,IMF Aid For Greece Might Need To Be Extend


BERLIN (MNI) - The IMF, the EU Commission and the Greek government itself fear that Greece might run into financial troubles again once the aid package of the Eurozone and the IMF runs out in 2012, German daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported Wednesday, citing no sources.


The E110 billion aid package might have to be prolonged, according to the paper. It noted that Greece will have to refinance an exceptionally high volume of government debt in 2014 and 2015. Moreover, first repayments on the EU and IMF loans will be due at the same time, it said. The IMF, the European Commission and Greek officials fear that these two burdens might be too much for the country, the paper wrote.


A German finance ministry spokesman made clear on Monday that Germany does not support the idea of giving Greece more time to repay its loans from EMU and the IMF.


"We are of the opinion that the existing body of rules which has been set up for Greece by the ECB, the EU Commission and the IMF needs to be executed now," ministry spokesman Michael Offer said at a regular government press conference in Berlin.


He acknowledged that the budget consolidation requirements call for a large effort from Greece. In the view of Germany, though, Greece is progressing well on that path, "and we are confident that Greece will be able to come down from its high government debt," Offer said.

 

[tommy271]

Knock-on effect from 09 revision

Shortfall this year may rise one percentage point; EU plays down prospects of extending loan program



An upward revision of the 2009 budget shortfall may push this year’s deficit higher by up to a full percentage point of economic output, according to sources.
The European Union’s statistical office Eurostat is expected to soon revise Greece’s 2009 budget deficit to just above 15 percent of gross domestic product, from 13.8 percent currently, due to the inclusion of currency swaps and debt owed by state enterprises as part of general government figures.


A source from Brussels told Kathimerini that the revision may boost this year’s figure a full percentage point but local Finance Ministry officials believe it will be slightly less than this.
Changes in the country’s accounting data may force the government to take additional measures to keep the country on fiscal track but it has little room to maneuver given the deepening recession.


One area where the government could further cut 700 to 800 million euros in spending is from the public investment program, while an additional 300 million euros could be saved in operating expenses.
These savings total out to 1.1 to 1.2 billion euros, amounting some 0.5 percent of GDP, and act as a cushion in the event the Finance Ministry needs to take corrective action to meet deficit reduction goals.


Meanwhile, the European Union played down yesterday any prospects of extending an emergency loan program for Greece, saying that the issue was not under discussion.
The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, said Greece should be able to finance its borrowing needs on the market from 2012, the time at which a bailout scheme granted jointly by the EU and the International Monetary Fund is to end.


“There is no discussion going on between the interested parties about such an eventuality [extension],” Commission spokesman Amadeu Altafaj Tardio told a regular briefing.
“All this suggests that Greece will be able to fully cover its external financial needs on the markets from 2012.”


The IMF said on Sunday that bailout loans to Greece could be stretched out or replaced if refinancing worries lingered in markets, but that it currently has no concrete plans to do so.
Under the scheme, Greece is to be allowed to tap the facility until 2012.
Germany yesterday opposed extending Greece’s repayment period for its bailout loans as the country is doing well refinancing itself.


(Kathimerini.gr)

 

[tommy271]

Cost of debt drops in T-bill auction


Greece raised 1.17 billion euros yesterday in a sale of 26-week Treasury bills that was both oversubscribed and saw a drop in borrowing costs. The sale, originally for 900 million euros, received bids worth 4.22 times the total on offer and resulted in a yield of 4.54 percent, down from 4.82 percent for a similar auction on September 14, the Public Debt Management Agency (PDMA) said.


Last month Greece began regular monthly short-term debt issues, maintaining a presence in the market after its financial woes left it essentially blocked from the long-term international debt market due to the prohibitively high interest rates demanded for its bonds. Although the rates demanded for Greek 10-year-bonds remain very high, the spread, or interest rate difference, as compared to benchmark German 10-year-bonds has narrowed significantly recently, by about 200 basis points – in other words, by 2 percentage points – since last month.



The spread above German bonds currently stands at about 7.3 percentage points, compared to more than 9 percentage points in mid-September. Finance Minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou described the drop in financing costs yesterday as being a “very positive” development.



Strategists said evidence that the international lenders who bailed Greece out were prepared to allow the country more time to repay their loans if necessary had soothed investor fears that the official timetable was too tight to rule out a default. “After all the positive news to come out of Greece recently, the lower yield is in line with expectations.


The IMF comments from the weekend, China’s pledge to buy Greek bonds and the fact that Greece is on track with its fiscal targets, all that supported sentiment,” Elmar Voelker, bond strategist at LBBW, told Reuters.

“The yield is still high compared with other eurozone countries, but the drop is a positive signal. I wouldn’t expect things to normalize in one big step. Even the longest road begins with a first step,” he said.


(Kathimerini.gr)

 

[tommy271]

LE PRIME PAGINE DEI QUOTIDIANI ELLENICI

Speculation of a new memorandum after 2013, optimism on a change of the climate after the drop in the Greek spreads and the crisis in the building construction sector, mostly dominated the headlines on Wednesday in Athens' newspaper.

ADESMEFTOS TYPOS: "Black market costs Greece 9 billion euros".
APOGEVMATINI: "The insistent minister of a 'country of corruption' - Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou unrepentant ".
AVGHI: "Education Minister asks police and parents' contribution to restore pupils to order".
AVRIANI: "Government's modus operandi for a new long-term Memorandum is a crime against the country".
ELEFTHEROS: "Stop lying Mr. Papaconstantinou".
ELEFTHEROS TYPOS: "IMF's prisoners .....until 2020".
ELEFTHEROTYPIA: "The 110 billion euros debt longer and deeper".
ESTIA: "Why the indirect taxes are being increased".
ETHNOS: "150,000 newly-built apartments, houses, remain unsold - Constructors in despair".
IMERISSIA: "Optimism for reversal of climate".
KATHIMERINI: "DEKO (Public Utilities and Organisations) will be included in the Memorandum".
LOGOS: "European Commission shuts the door to extension of the debt repayment period".
NAFTEMPORIKI: "The possibility of a new memorandum after 2013 is open".
NIKI: "Focus on the low incomes".
RIZOSPASTIS: "Communist Party of Greece (KKE) announcement calls for single state energy agency".
TA NEA: "Finance Ministry foreclosed on 70 houses in forty days".
TO VIMA: "DEKO and civil servants' salaries targeted".
VRADYNI: "Hostages of the European Union and IMF".


(ana.gr)

 

[tommy271]

Oggi la Borsa di Atene è partita molto bene: attualmente intorno a + 2.
Riflessi positivi per l'ETF Az. Greece.

Spread/bund intorno ai 693 pb.

 

[tommy271]

Greece's NBG leads bank stocks higher on capital boost


ATHENS | Wed Oct 13, 2010 4:27am EDT



ATHENS Oct 13 (Reuters) - Shares in National Bank (NBGr.AT) gained more than 4 percent on Wednesday, leading Greek banks higher, as tighter bond yield spreads and the completion of a big rights issue improved investors' risk appetite.


"There is improved sentiment as regards Greek risk, reflected in the bond market with tighter yield spreads and in the equity market with the oversubscription of NBG's rights offering," said analyst Nick Koskoletos at EFG Eurobank Securities.


At 0818 GMT shares in NBG, Greece's largest lender, were up 3.93 percent at 8.45 euros, with the Athens bourse's banking index .FTATBNK gaining 3.18 percent and outperforming the broader stock market's 1.77 percent rise.


NBG's 1.8 billion euro rights issue which ended on Oct 11 was covered 1.83 times, a welcome confidence boost for the banking sector, battered by the country's debt crisis. [nLDE69B0YF]
"There is a risk-on trade with regards to Greece, NBG stands to benefit given its best-in-class capital position after its rights offering," Koskoletos said.

 

[tommy271]

Public Enterprises With Deficits Weigh In The 2011 Draft Budget



The Eurostat mission currently in Athens is expected to decide how much the debt accumulated by public enterprises is going to weigh in the 2011 budget.

Officials say that the debt to GDP ratio may surge by 10% which would make it even more difficult for the country to return to markets, while the impact on the deficit of 2010 is yet to be determoned.

The public enterprises that run deficits are the major problem. The EU officials had first to be convinced on the credibility of the data, and then figure out low much of their debt they would have to register with the budget.

In April, Eurostat said Greece’s 2009 budget deficit would be revised upwards by an estimated 0.4% -0.5%, but in recent days officials say the revision could set the deficit at 14.9% -15.1% of GDP

The draft budget has the provision for activation of guarantees for public enterprises worth of EUR2.4 billion for the years 2010-2011. However, this sum could end up bigger.

(Capital.gr)

 

[Imark]

Nella scorsa settimana, la Grecia ha continuato a mostrare una performance discreta, con i rendimenti scesi sotto il 10% lordo su molte lunghezze.

Poco mosse le duration intermedie, hanno fatto uno scatto in avanti i 2019, correggendo parzialmente un'andamento della curva dei rendimenti che vede i titoli fino al 2016 e dopo il 2022 rendere meno del 10% lordo, e quelli compresi in quest'arco temporale presentare ancora oggi un rendimento superiore.

Ove il mercato continuasse a premiare i temi speculativi fino alle elezioni USA e all'annuncio del QE della FED, questi titoli potrebbe continuare a mostrare tonicità.

La spinta al rialzo dei prezzi si attenua sulle scadenze ultradecennali, fino ad esaurirsi del tutto sulla parte lunghissima della curva, con il 2037 ed il 2040 fermi su base settimanale.

il 2013 - 88,43 (BBML) 88,57 (Xtrakter);
il 2014 - 85,77 (BBML) 85,93 (Xtrakter);
il 2015 - 85,87 (BBML) 86,00 (Xtrakter);
il 2016 - 73,18 (BBML) 73,41 (Xtrakter);
il 2017 - 71,30 (BBML) 71,50 (Xtrakter);
il 2018 - 70,55 (BBML) 70,81 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6% 75,19 (BBML) 75,73 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6.5% 77,09 (BBML) 77,48 (Xtrakter);
il 2022 - 71,22 (BBML) 71,45 (Xtrakter);
il 2024 - 65,64 (BBML) 66,00 (Xtrakter);
il 2026 - 66,88 (BBML) 67,05 (Xtrakter);
il 2037 - 58,87 (BBML) 59,06 (Xtrakter);
il 2040 - 58,72 (BBML) 59,20 (Xtrakter);

GGBei 2025 - 55,63 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter
GGBei 2030 - 51,48 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter

Come preannunciato, eccomi ad un aggiornamento infrasettimanale del quadro dei bond greci OTC, motivato dal forte andamento dei titoli di lunedì scorso, con l'eliminazione di quella gibbosità della curva dei rendimenti che determinava un'anomalia sulle lunghezze comprese fra il 2016 ed il 2022.

Anche ieri una buona giornata, tendenzialmente di assestamento, con una segnalazione da fare, ossia un almeno temporaneo stop al rialzo della parte più lunga della curva dei rendimenti, con il 2037 ed il 2040 arrestatitisi sulla soglia dei 60/100 ad esprimere rendimenti di poco superiori all'8% lordo.

Sul resto della curva, un andamento un po' a strappi su alcuni titoli rende probabile nei prossimi giorni un lavorio di arbitraggi che corregga situazioni di anomalia fra lunghezze contigue.

Sempre ovviamente, che su questi livelli si verifichi un assestamento.

Veniamo ai titoli:


il 2013 - 90,42,43 (BBML) 90,40 (Xtrakter);
il 2014 - 88,48 (BBML) 88,13 (Xtrakter);
il 2015 - 88,28 (BBML) 88,05 (Xtrakter);
il 2016 - 76,22 (BBML) 75,73 (Xtrakter);
il 2017 - 74,81 (BBML) 74,06 (Xtrakter);
il 2018 - 74,25 (BBML) 74,07 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6% 79,74 (BBML) 79,78 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6.5% 82,39 (BBML) 82,27 (Xtrakter);
il 2022 - 75,78 (BBML) 75,28 (Xtrakter);
il 2024 - 68,58 (BBML) 68,88 (Xtrakter);
il 2026 - 68,95 (BBML) 69,05 (Xtrakter);
il 2037 - 60,55 (BBML) 60,06 (Xtrakter);
il 2040 - 60,38 (BBML) 60,78 (Xtrakter);

GGBei 2025 - 55,32 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter
GGBei 2030 - 52,40 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter

 

[tommy271]

GGB Prices Rise In September



Government bond prices fell and yields rose on Euro-zone markets in September, with the exception of Greece, Bank of Greece said Wednesday.

On the electronic secondary securities market for Greek government bonds (HDAT) yields fell significantly during September, in particular at the short end of the yield curve. The major decline was recorded in the 3-year benchmark bond yield that fell by 176 basis points (bps) to 10.45% at the end of September, while the 10-year benchmark bond yield fell by 101 bps to 10.48% and the 30-year benchmark bond yield by 75 bps to 8.51%. The yield curve remained inverted, with the difference between the 30- and the 3-year bond yields reaching -193 bps at the end of September from -295 bps at the end of August. Finally, the spread between the Greek and the German 10-year bond yields narrowed to 824 bps at the end of September from 937 bps on August 31.

As for government benchmark bond prices, the 3-year bond price rose to 87.05 at the end of September from 83.19 at the end of August, the 10-year bond price rose to 74.80 from 69.94 and the 30-year bond price to 58.00 from 53.18.

Trading volume on HDAT in September was EUR 1.8 billion, compared to EUR 819 million in the previous month and EUR 51.8 billion in September 2009. The daily average turnover was EUR 82.7 million in September compared with EUR 37.2 million during the previous month. Investor interest was mainly focused on bonds with remaining maturity below 3 years, which absorbed EUR 1 billion worth of transactions, or 55% of the overall traded volume. The most actively traded bond during the month was the 3-year bond maturing on March 20, 2011 with EUR 451 million worth of transactions. Of the 1,400 orders executed on HDAT, 57% were “sell” orders and 43% “buy” orders.

(Capital.gr)

***
Statistiche sempre utili ...

 

[tommy271]

Greek/German bond yield spread narrows


LONDON | Wed Oct 13, 2010 5:54am EDT



LONDON Oct 13 (Reuters) - The premium investors demand to hold 10-year Greek government bonds rather than euro zone German benchmark Bunds on Wednesday hit its lowest level since June 16 which market analysts said was due to flow-based bidding.


The 10-year Greek/German government bond yield spread GR10YT=TWEBDE10YT=TWEB narrowed by 12 basis points on the day to 683 bps.
In outright terms, the Greek bond's yield fell by more than 6 basis points to 9.13 percent, while the yield on other 10-year euro zone issuers' debt, including benchmark Bunds, rose.


"There is no Greece-specific news today but rather continued follow-through bidding based on flows. Greece offers the highest yields in the euro zone but has the protection of the euro behind it and possible extension of repayment terms for its loans from the IMF," Marc Ostwald, bond strategist at Monument Securities said.