Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
tommy271
Forumer storico
Non era affatto tutto chiaro, non siamo preveggenti.
Però il calo di queste settimane è più da imputare a fattore esterni che interni.
Son tutti giochetti che si fanno sulla testa degli ellenici.
Di negativo sappiamo solamente che lo sforamento del deficit/Pil quest'anno sarà intorno al 15,5% corrente e complessivo intorno al 125%.
Ma questo lo sapevano tutti da inizio ottobre, quanto è cominciata la risalita.
E' l'unico dato realmente negativo, il resto procede tutto come da programma concordato.
Gli aiuti arrivano a tranche trimestrali, se il piano non viene rispettato i "dindini" non arrivano più
.
Grisù
Forumer attivo
Basta leggere i post di qualche settimana fa quando rappresentavo il fatto che personalmente ero uscito dalle scadenze brevi e medie per limitare le esposizioni.
Ricordo anche che qualcuno se la prese perchè sosteneva che i GGB fossero sicuri ormai come i bund e che il mio consiglio fosse pessimo.
Peraltro avevamo discusso anche stop e trailing stop che su titoli speculativi non devono mai mancare. Questo non esclude che se il mercato ritraccia ancora non ci sia possibilità di rientrare, è normale che un junk bond oscilli +-10%.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Fitch Says Greek Banks Closely Tied To Sovereign Developments
Fitch Ratings Thursday said that the four major Greek banks΄ financial performance and risk profile will largely depend on sovereign developments in Greece.
The fiscal and macroeconomic deterioration in Greece in conjunction with the multiple downgrades of Greece΄s sovereign rating (΄BBB-΄/Negative)
has in Fitch΄s opinion led to a close correlation between Greek sovereign and Greek bank risk, the firm noted in a report.
Consequently, the Long-term Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) of Greece΄s four largest banks are now underpinned by Fitch΄s assessment of sovereign and international support, are on their Support Rating Floor of ΄BBB-΄ and equalised with Greece΄s sovereign rating. Any negative rating action on Greece is likely to be mirrored in the ratings of Greek banks. Greece΄s four largest commercial banks are National Bank of Greece (NBG), Efg Eurobank Ergasias (Eurobank), Alpha Bank (Alpha) and Piraeus Bank (Piraeus).
"Given Fitch΄s forecasts of negative GDP growth continuing in Greece for 2011, Greek banks are likely to see slower credit demand, higher levels of impaired loans and subdued domestic performance", says Cristina Torrella, Senior Director in Fitch΄s Financial Institutions team. "Fitch does not believe impaired loans have peaked and the uncertainty surrounding the impact of recent and upcoming fiscal tightening in Greece will have on the real economy makes impaired loans predictions increasingly difficult. Fitch would expect impaired loans to continue increasing until at least mid-2011 before levelling off."
Profitability pressure from sustained high loan impairment charges in 2011 could, however, be partly offset by continued loan re-pricing, further cost control, expected lower marked-to-market trading losses following the reclassification of Greek government securities into held-to-maturity portfolios, and better prospects in foreign markets in Southeast Europe and, in the case of NBG, Turkey which benefit from high-margin lending, the firm said.
Fitch recognises banks΄ strong domestic and deposit franchises, some business and geographic diversification and adequate capital adequacy (with tier 1 capital ratio ranging from 8.7% to 11.4%). However, banks΄ suppressed profitability, particularly in the domestic operations, weak liquidity and funding profile with high reliance on ECB funding (20% to 26% of end-H110 total assets) and considerable exposure to the Greek government, largely through sizeable holdings of Greek government paper, are reflected in the major banks΄ ΄D΄ Individual Rating.
Despite attempts to improve their deposit franchises, gradual balance sheet deleveraging and tentative signs of a reopening of commercial wholesale funding market to Greek banks, Fitch believes that all Greek banks will remain heavily dependent on ECB funding for the foreseeable future. Consequently, the banks΄ funding and liquidity profiles are highly susceptible to any changes in the ECB asset eligibility criteria. Limited wholesale funding maturities in the next two years, combined with low funding needs from the banking business, partly counterbalance risks.
The level of major Greek banks΄ capital adequacy is adequate, but the current macroeconomic environment requires, in Fitch΄s view, significant capital buffers above the regulatory minimum to cover anticipated credit losses. To this end, banks are seeking alternatives to support capital, as reflects NBG΄s recent share capital increase and Piraeus΄ recent capital increase announcement.
(Capital.gr)
Fitch Ratings Thursday said that the four major Greek banks΄ financial performance and risk profile will largely depend on sovereign developments in Greece.
The fiscal and macroeconomic deterioration in Greece in conjunction with the multiple downgrades of Greece΄s sovereign rating (΄BBB-΄/Negative)
has in Fitch΄s opinion led to a close correlation between Greek sovereign and Greek bank risk, the firm noted in a report.
Consequently, the Long-term Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) of Greece΄s four largest banks are now underpinned by Fitch΄s assessment of sovereign and international support, are on their Support Rating Floor of ΄BBB-΄ and equalised with Greece΄s sovereign rating. Any negative rating action on Greece is likely to be mirrored in the ratings of Greek banks. Greece΄s four largest commercial banks are National Bank of Greece (NBG), Efg Eurobank Ergasias (Eurobank), Alpha Bank (Alpha) and Piraeus Bank (Piraeus).
"Given Fitch΄s forecasts of negative GDP growth continuing in Greece for 2011, Greek banks are likely to see slower credit demand, higher levels of impaired loans and subdued domestic performance", says Cristina Torrella, Senior Director in Fitch΄s Financial Institutions team. "Fitch does not believe impaired loans have peaked and the uncertainty surrounding the impact of recent and upcoming fiscal tightening in Greece will have on the real economy makes impaired loans predictions increasingly difficult. Fitch would expect impaired loans to continue increasing until at least mid-2011 before levelling off."
Profitability pressure from sustained high loan impairment charges in 2011 could, however, be partly offset by continued loan re-pricing, further cost control, expected lower marked-to-market trading losses following the reclassification of Greek government securities into held-to-maturity portfolios, and better prospects in foreign markets in Southeast Europe and, in the case of NBG, Turkey which benefit from high-margin lending, the firm said.
Fitch recognises banks΄ strong domestic and deposit franchises, some business and geographic diversification and adequate capital adequacy (with tier 1 capital ratio ranging from 8.7% to 11.4%). However, banks΄ suppressed profitability, particularly in the domestic operations, weak liquidity and funding profile with high reliance on ECB funding (20% to 26% of end-H110 total assets) and considerable exposure to the Greek government, largely through sizeable holdings of Greek government paper, are reflected in the major banks΄ ΄D΄ Individual Rating.
Despite attempts to improve their deposit franchises, gradual balance sheet deleveraging and tentative signs of a reopening of commercial wholesale funding market to Greek banks, Fitch believes that all Greek banks will remain heavily dependent on ECB funding for the foreseeable future. Consequently, the banks΄ funding and liquidity profiles are highly susceptible to any changes in the ECB asset eligibility criteria. Limited wholesale funding maturities in the next two years, combined with low funding needs from the banking business, partly counterbalance risks.
The level of major Greek banks΄ capital adequacy is adequate, but the current macroeconomic environment requires, in Fitch΄s view, significant capital buffers above the regulatory minimum to cover anticipated credit losses. To this end, banks are seeking alternatives to support capital, as reflects NBG΄s recent share capital increase and Piraeus΄ recent capital increase announcement.
(Capital.gr)
Grisù
Forumer attivo
La chiave di lettura è esattamente questa ed è la ragione per la quale in Bce non accettano la possibilità di un default.
La depatrimonializzazione porterebbe al fallimento le banche che ormai sono piene di titoli nazionali.
In realtà lo schema ponzi del prestito alla Grecia che a suo volta ne ha girato una parte per ripatrimonializzare le banche è stato utile anche per favorire gli acquisti interni sui GGB.
Un default non farebbe comodo alla maggior parte d'europa tranne forse alla germania, anche se su questo punto non ne sarei propriamente sicuro.
Grisù
Forumer attivo
Il buon Trichet ripete concetti già espressi recentemente, niente di particolarmente nuovo:
ECB: Introductory statement
ECB: Introductory statement
Jessica.
out of time...
Facciamo che te le compro a 43?!?
Scherzi a parte, come mai? Sei in gain? Oppure preferisci spostarti su altri emittenti?
il mio pmc e' 45.25......... aspetto un fine anno buio e pieno di incertezze.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Greek Bank Risk Linked to Nation’s Sovereign Debt, Fitch Says
By Paul Tugwell - Nov 4, 2010 2:55 PM GMT+0100
Thu Nov 04 13:55:02 GMT 2010
The financial performance and risk profile of National Bank of Greece SA, EFG Eurobank Ergasias SA, Alpha Bank SA and Piraeus Bank SA, Greece’s four biggest lenders, will largely depend on developments in Greece’s sovereign debt rating, Fitch Ratings said.
“The fiscal and macroeconomic deterioration in Greece in conjunction with the multiple downgrades of Greece’s sovereign rating has led to a close correlation between Greek sovereign and Greek bank risk,” Fitch said in a report today. “Any negative rating action on Greece is likely to be mirrored in the rating of Greek banks.”
Profitability pressure from sustained high non-performing loan charges in 2011 could be partly offset by loan re-pricing, cost control, expected lower marked-to-market trading losses and better prospects in exchanges in southeast Europe and Turkey, Fitch said.
Although the capital level of the major Greek banks is “adequate,” the macroeconomic environment requires significant capital buffers that are above the regulatory minimum to cover anticipated credit losses, Fitch said.
***
Qui Bloomberg riprende Fitch.
By Paul Tugwell - Nov 4, 2010 2:55 PM GMT+0100
Thu Nov 04 13:55:02 GMT 2010
The financial performance and risk profile of National Bank of Greece SA, EFG Eurobank Ergasias SA, Alpha Bank SA and Piraeus Bank SA, Greece’s four biggest lenders, will largely depend on developments in Greece’s sovereign debt rating, Fitch Ratings said.
“The fiscal and macroeconomic deterioration in Greece in conjunction with the multiple downgrades of Greece’s sovereign rating has led to a close correlation between Greek sovereign and Greek bank risk,” Fitch said in a report today. “Any negative rating action on Greece is likely to be mirrored in the rating of Greek banks.”
Profitability pressure from sustained high non-performing loan charges in 2011 could be partly offset by loan re-pricing, cost control, expected lower marked-to-market trading losses and better prospects in exchanges in southeast Europe and Turkey, Fitch said.
Although the capital level of the major Greek banks is “adequate,” the macroeconomic environment requires significant capital buffers that are above the regulatory minimum to cover anticipated credit losses, Fitch said.
***
Qui Bloomberg riprende Fitch.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Irish bonds at levels where Greek bonds were when rescue launched
By Jamie Coleman || November 4, 2010 at 14:07 GMT
Trichet was asked if Ireland is in the same boat as Greece as their bonds are at the same levels as Greek debt when Europe launched a rescue.
Trichet has pointed to comments later today from the Irish government but otherwise refuses comment.
The ECB bond-buying program never targeted any particular spreads, he says.
(forexlive.com)
By Jamie Coleman || November 4, 2010 at 14:07 GMT
Trichet was asked if Ireland is in the same boat as Greece as their bonds are at the same levels as Greek debt when Europe launched a rescue.
Trichet has pointed to comments later today from the Irish government but otherwise refuses comment.
The ECB bond-buying program never targeted any particular spreads, he says.
(forexlive.com)
- Stato
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