Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (11 lettori)

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Vet

Forumer storico
I prezzi del decennale al 6% che fanno da parametro per tutti gli altri, secondo le logiche di mercato, attualmente scontano una previsione di ristrutturazione del debito............sotto i 40.....le previsioni sono di fallimento......e man mano che scendono i prezzi sotto questa soglia, la percentuale di default aumenta......., .altri discorsi lasciano il tempo che trovano e servono più che altro alla speculazione...le elezioni a breve non penso che cambieranno una mazza....almeno in senso negativo
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
I prezzi del decennale al 6% che fanno da parametro per tutti gli altri, secondo le logiche di mercato, attualmente scontano una previsione di ristrutturazione del debito............sotto i 40.....le previsioni sono di fallimento......e man mano che scendono i prezzi sotto questa soglia, la percentuale di default aumenta......., .altri discorsi lasciano il tempo che trovano e servono più che altro alla speculazione...le elezioni a breve non penso che cambieranno una mazza....almeno in senso negativo

Il benchmark di riferimento dello spread/bund sul decennale è il 06.2020 6,25%.
 

Jessica.

out of time...
ciao , senza impegno , ma questo panico vero per quando lo prevedi ? :eek:

non prevedo nulla,...magari potessi!!.. penso solo che i minimi possano essere ritoccati senza troppa fatica..

dal mio punto di vista sara' l'irlanda a dare un buon contributo affinche' il panico si manifesti anche sui tds greci.

Ci aspetta un Natale con pochi regali sotto l'albero.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Mi sembra un paragone un po' forzato. Siamo su dei titoli dei 16 Stati della UEM. Mi rendo conto del loro rating attuale ma se proprio vogliamo definirlo Junk (a nostro detrimento) dobbiamo anche pensare che un titolo spazzatura ha solitamente nessuna notizia (o quasi). Invece nel nostro caso uno Stato sovrano deve rendere di conto trimestralmente fino al centesimo e non è una scatola vuota, bensì è fatta da una intera nazione. In questo caso tutti gli obiettivi che raggiungeranno saranno fatti da portatori di "lacrime e sangue" e non da una società a responsabilità limitata...

Se non fosse stato per problemi esterni alla Grecia e (forse, comunque in minor misura ritengo) alla "minaccia" delle urne anticipate avremmo avuto un periodo più tranquillo perché le motivazioni per la risalita dei corsi era in qualche modo giustificabile. Certo che, solo adesso e col senno del poi, mi accorgo di essermi illuso anche io negli ultimi giorni... però rimango con quella sensazione che anche questa discesa sia eccessiva.

Che strano, a fine intervento, credo sia ovvio darti ragione: è come un titolo Junk. Risulta in balìa degli "eventi" (leggasi Manovratori) e l'attenzione non è sul tasso effettivo degli interessi ma semplicemente sul suo corso secco. Un bond equity.

Il paragone che ho utilizzato, "Junk" rispetto ad un titolo di stato dell'area Euro, è volutamente forzato.
Questi titoli si muovono però così.

Se il prossimo anno le politiche di rigore avranno dispiegato appieno i loro effetti potremo iniziare a ritornare verso la crescita a fine 2011.
In sostanza si tratta di trarre dalla situazione di crisi la forza per modernizzare il paese: la volontà politica c'è.
Poi le nostre agenzie di rating dovranno trarne le dovute conseguenze.
Voi lo sapete, ma sono ottimista ... ;).
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
non prevedo nulla,...magari potessi!!.. penso solo che i minimi possano essere ritoccati senza troppa fatica..

dal mio punto di vista sara' l'irlanda a dare un buon contributo affinche' il panico si manifesti anche sui tds greci.

Ci aspetta un Natale con pochi regali sotto l'albero.

Ad ottobre abbiamo fatto circa 15 sedute positive consecutive sino a toccare una chiusura minima a 657 pb.
Da allora siamo alla 14 seduta consecutiva negativa ed abbiamo chiuso ieri a 915 pb.
Chissà se lunedì inizia ad invertirsi il trend ...

Ricordo che i minimi toccati sono stati poco sopra i 1000 pb.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Crisis-hit Greece votes under threat of snap poll


ATHENS, Greece (AP) — Voters in crisis-hit Greece cast ballots in local polls Sunday, in a major test of public support for austerity measures that could trigger a snap general election.
The vote pits Prime Minister George Papandreou's 13-month-old Socialist government against opposition parties all campaigning against the terms rescue-loan deal with the European Union and IMF.

On Friday, Papandreou repeated a pledge to call early elections if his government loses significant support — spooking bond markets over Greece's ability to cope with its massive debts.
"Several months ago, we saved Greece from bankruptcy, but the state of alert is not over," Papandreou told an election rally.

"I have no desire to go to national elections," he said. "But for this massive effort by the country to succeed we must have public unity and dedication when faced with this great challenge."
The government has endured waves of strikes and disruptive protests against cost-cutting reforms demanded to start receiving the euro110 billion in international emergency loans. Papandreou's popularity slipped in recent months, hurt by the ongoing recession and a surge in unemployment and small business failures.

Pressure for deeper cuts is likely to increase, when the EU later in November will revise Greece's 2009 budget deficit to 15 percent of gross domestic product or higher, from the current projection of 13.6 percent.
The Socialists still appear unlikely to suffer a heavy defeat on Sunday, as opinion polls predict a roughly even split with main opposition conservatives in 13 regional governor races.

Conservative leader Antonis Samaras on Friday urged the government to "change course" and replace austerity with a policy of state investment to stimulate the economy.
"The prime minister should visit ordinary people and realize how much they are suffering," he said in his final campaign appearance.

Gauging the results of Sunday's election and run-offs on Nov. 14 will be obscured by local party alliances and rebel candidacies likely to cost the Socialists an all-important victory in greater Athens.
The political uncertainty has sent market borrowing costs sharply higher, with the interest-rate gap between Greek 10-year bonds and Germany's benchmark equivalent again exceeding 9 percentage points on Friday.

Sunday's election will be the first held following far-reaching changes in Greek local government that reduced the number of administrative regions from 54 to 13 and municipalities from 1,014 to 325 and will extend the terms of mayors and regional governors from four to five years.

State-run and private broadcasters have decided not to sponsor exit polls for this year's elections, citing budget cuts.
Interior Ministry officials said results would start to be announced shortly after polls close, with "indicative" returns expected after 9:30 p.m. (1930 GMT).
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Elections balanced on knife edge


PM set to call general polls if local results hurt PASOK but outcome may only be clear in second round


Campaigning for tomorrow’s local elections ended yesterday, with the government, opposition parties and voters still on tenterhooks over the possibility that Sunday’s result could trigger parliamentary elections.

Prime Minister George Papandreou, who has said he may call a snap election if the outcome at the ballot box tomorrow indicates PASOK does not have a popular mandate, had a low-key meeting with independent candidate for Athens mayor Giorgos Kaminis and took part in an discussion with young Greeks via the Internet.

However, an interview he gave to Italian magazine Panorama reignited the debate over the significance of Sunday’s vote.
“If the interest groups we hurt with our reforms say ‘enough’ and want to stop the changes taking place, then I have no option but to turn to the Greek people,” said Papandreou according to a transcript of the interview.

PASOK members are hoping that a last-minute rally by the party’s voters will mean the prime minister can shelve plans for a general election. Papandreou has not stated publicly what kind of outcome would prompt him to go the polls but sources suggested that PASOK, which won the parliamentary elections last October by a 10 percent margin, is hoping to maintain a 5-7 percent difference over New Democracy.

Another crucial factor will be the outcome of voting in the newly formed Attica region, one of 13 enlarged districts created by recent local administration reform. PASOK’s candidate, Attica Prefect Yiannis Sgouros, is up against New Democracy’s Vassilis Kikilias and independent Yiannis Dimaras, a former PASOK deputy who has been leading in the polls after campaigning solely on a platform opposed to the European Union and International Monetary Fund bailout. It is unlikely that any of the three will get the 50 percent needed to win outright. Instead, in all likelihood the two leading contenders will battle it out next Sunday. However, if Sgouros manages to edge Kikilias out of the runoff, PASOK may decide to present this as a victory that means general elections will not be needed.

It seems certain, though, that runoffs will be needed in several of the 13 regions and some of the 325 municipalities where voting will take place, which may affect Papandreou’s thinking as to whether to call general elections in the wake of tomorrow’s vote.


(Kathimerini.gr)

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tommy271

Forumer storico
Greek-Italian link to bombs?


The police’s counterterrorism unit is investigating a suspected connection between Greek and Italian extremist and anarchist groups who are believed to be trading tactics, Kathimerini has learned.
The police’s interest in a suspected Greek-Italian link was fueled by this week’s letter bomb campaign and the subsequent arrest of two suspects – one a suspected member of the Conspiracy of the Cells of Fire guerrilla group. In April 2008, the group issued a proclamation claiming a slew of bloodless bomb blasts and expressing admiration for the “revolutionary” tactics of its Italian “comrades” – referring to letter bomb attacks by Italian extremists against police.
In April of this year, the Italian Anarchist Federation (FAI) claimed responsibility for mailing letter bombs to an Italian police precinct in honor of Lambros Fountas, a suspected member of Revolutionary Struggle who was killed in a shootout with police in Athens in March.


(Kathimerini.gr)


***
Qui ci occupiamo solo di "grana" ... ;)

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tommy271

Forumer storico
AIG trims exposure to Greek sovereign debt



American International Group Inc (AIG), the bailed-out insurer, reduced its exposure to the sovereign debt of six nations, including Greece, by more than two-thirds with the divestment of non-US life units.
AIG has about $927 million in exposure to Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Hungary and got rid of its Greece holdings with the sale this week of the American Life Insurance Co (Alico) unit, New York-based American International Group said yesterday in a regulatory filing.
Exposure to the six nations was about $3.1 billion as of September 30, before the sale of Alico to MetLife Inc and the public offering of AIA Group Ltd, according to the filing.



(Bloomberg)
 
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