ECB Spools Up Bond-Buying Program Again
The Federal Reserve isn’t the only central bank cranking up its bond-buying machinery. Figures on Monday show that the European Central Bank revived its own controversial program of supporting struggling euro members last week as euro-zone fiscal concerns mounted, especially in Ireland.
The ECB bought EUR771 million of government debt of struggling euro-zone countries last week, having abstained from such emergency bond purchases for the three previous weeks. While the ECB doesn’t tell us whose countries’ bonds it’s buying, Ireland, Portugal and Greece are the most likely candidates. All three highly-indebted countries on Europe’s fringe have seen their bond yields – and borrowing costs – jump in recent days to unsustainably high levels. (To keep track of the euro-zone crisis, here’s a
viewer’s guide for what’s ahead.)
It’s not good news that the ECB’s emergency program is whirring again. The central bank’s earlier refusal to buy so-called “peripheral” bonds amid rising jitters was a sign of confidence: ECB knob-twiddlers were probably trying to let Europe’s bond markets normalize. Now, the market’s waning confidence in the creditworthiness of Ireland and Portugal have forced policy makers’ hands.
At least one European policy maker, German central bank chief Axel Weber – a top candidate to replace ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet – has been very vocal about the ills of bond-buying, attacking the program as unnecessary and potentially ruinous for the ECB’s credibility. (He and Federal Reserve dissenter-in-chief KC Fed President Thomas Hoenig are
simpatico on many issues.) While there’s little to suggest the ECB purchases are sparking fears of inflation – a big concern in Germany since the
Weimar Republic’s painful bout of hyperinflation some 90 years ago – it can be argued that buying bonds entangles the ECB dangerously in the plight of the region’s most-vulnerable economies.
But investors should remember that the ECB’s latest purchases are still very small. Before this past week, the ECB last bought bonds in early October, picking up a paltry EUR9 million worth. A week before that, it bought EUR1.384 billion. These amounts are nothing like the EUR16 billion in bonds the ECB purchased in the first week of the program in May.
It’s also possible that any worried investors are mixing up cause and effect. In other words, Irish, Greek and Portuguese bond yields may be soaring in part
because the ECB hasn’t been seen as buying bonds in the past few weeks. According to this view, the ECB has been letting Europe’s weaker bond markets bicycle on their own for a while. Only now has the ECB felt a need to step back in to lend a supporting hand.
For now, the soaring bond yields in Greek and Irish debt markets are also a somewhat academic concern. Greece, which fell into the rescuing arms of the European Union and the International Monetary Fund this spring, isn’t really raising long-term financing from capital markets anymore, so it’s not going to be paying, say, the current 11% rate implied by market prices. (Greece is, however, selling a six-month Treasury bill on Tuesday.) Similarly, to avoid paying exorbitantly high interest rates, Ireland, which sits on roughly EUR20 billion of liquid reserves, has said it will forego selling bonds until next year.
For the most part, the ECB’s bond-buying program is a P.R. exercise aimed at keeping any bond yield surges from rattling global investors. It’s possible investors should be more worried about the ECB’s unlimited provision of emergency funding to the banks of weak euro-zone countries. By propping up these banks, the ECB is stealthily holding up weak euro zone governments, too, since these banks are themselves major buyers of the country’s government bonds.
But don’t tell that to Portugal. This indebted country will be in the market on Wednesday trying to sell five-year and ten-year bonds to investors in the worst fund-raising environment in weeks. Portuguese officials are probably happy that the ECB has pulled out its knives to fight the crisis again.
ECB Spools Up Bond-Buying Program Again - MarketBeat - WSJ