Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (11 lettori)

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fabriziof

Forumer storico
ragazzi qui si parla giustamente di tds però sarebbe interessante sapere quanti di noi hanno investito sulle banche greche .io ho 25k sul perpetuo alpha DE000A0DX3M2 pmc 50,55 e 15k sul perpetuo efg XS0234821345 pmc 53,96(arrivata oggi cedolina trimestrale)
 

IL MARATONETA

Forumer storico
importante precisazione

Vorrei ricordare che a questo sondaggio sono invitati a partecipare anche i forumisti che ci leggono e che non possiedono titoli di stato greci; il loro punto di vista è fondamentale per noi investitori in quanto dato da persone meno coinvolte emotivamente e finanziariamente. Grazie per chi vorrà rispondere e precisare se sono o non sono detentori di titoli greci.:reading:
 

IL MARATONETA

Forumer storico
ragazzi qui si parla giustamente di tds però sarebbe interessante sapere quanti di noi hanno investito sulle banche greche .io ho 25k sul perpetuo alpha DE000A0DX3M2 pmc 50,55 e 15k sul perpetuo efg XS0234821345 pmc 53,96(arrivata oggi cedolina trimestrale)
ho investito solo 60k nominali su vari titoli obbligazionari, niente azionario,
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
ragazzi qui si parla giustamente di tds però sarebbe interessante sapere quanti di noi hanno investito sulle banche greche .io ho 25k sul perpetuo alpha DE000A0DX3M2 pmc 50,55 e 15k sul perpetuo efg XS0234821345 pmc 53,96(arrivata oggi cedolina trimestrale)

Le banche greche sono un'altra scommessa.
Messe meglio rispetto a quelle portoghesi e, manco a dirlo, irlandesi.
Potrebbero essere un'opportunità ma rimangono legate a doppio filo all'andamento dei TdS.
Anche qui i ragionamenti potrebbero sprecarsi, non è detto che un default dei nostri GGB implichi necessariamente anche un default dei corporate bancari (anche se ci sono buone possibilità).
Poi dipende da banca a banca ...

Al limite l'alternativa si potrebbe giocare tra GGB ed un ETF azionario greece.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Analysis: Restructuring talk gains momentum in Greece



By Dina Kyriakidou
ATHENS | Mon Apr 11, 2011 12:31pm EDT



ATHENS (Reuters) - A year since Greece obtained a 110 billion euro ($158 billion) international bailout, politicians and members of the public, fed up with austerity, are pushing their government to restructure its debt.
The government is still strongly resisting the idea but a deep recession and rising unemployment, coupled with slow visible progress in reforming state finances, are prompting even members of the ruling socialist PASOK party to urge the leadership to reconsider.
Many proponents stop short of recommending a "haircut" -- a cut in the principal that must be repaid -- on Greek government bonds. But options such as extending the maturities of bonds or lowering their coupon payments, once taboo, are now being publicly mentioned.
"It's better to have a restructuring now, not necessarily haircuts but perhaps a repayment extension, since the situation is going nowhere," PASOK stalwart Vasso Papandreou, head of parliament's economic affairs committee, said last week. "We keep taking measures as if we are in a vicious cycle."
Even with emergency loans from the bailout, markets have long doubted that Greece can dig itself out of its economic hole without some from of restructuring. Spreads between 10-year Greek government bonds and German bunds remain near 10 percentage points, and rating agencies keep downgrading Greece deeper into junk territory.
Prime Minister George Papandreou is adamant a restructuring -- the first by a Western European state in about six decades -- would be catastrophic for banks and pension funds holding Greek debt, make it impossible for Athens to return to markets soon, and leave Greece dependent on donors for the long term.
But disappointing revenues due to persistent tax evasion and a deep recession threaten to prevent Greece from hitting budget deficit targets agreed with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund in exchange for its bailout, despite considerable progress in the right direction.
So the public debate in Greece appears to be turning slowly to what type of restructuring would be most benign.
Even former European Central Bank vice president Lucas Papademos, an adviser to the prime minister, indicated on Friday that while a haircut was impossible, an extension of maturities on Greek debt could not be ruled out.
"Politicians are expected to rule out restructuring their debt until they do it. As we see with bailouts, governments say they don't need it until they ask for one,"
said Capital Economics analyst Ben May.


MORE MEASURES AHEAD


Greece's 300 billion euro debt pile is projected to reach 158 percent of gross domestic product in 2012 before starting to shrink after 2014.
Drastic public wage and pension cuts, as well as tax hikes, have cut the budget deficit by 6 percentage points but not as much as targeted. Greece aims to raise 50 billion euros through privatizations by 2015 but this target may be too optimistic, and liberalization of markets has yet to boost the competitiveness of the Greek economy much.
"The government's performance has been lacking, the numbers are clear," said Theodore Couloumbis of the ELIAMEP think tank. "We have a socialist party that is forced to apply conservative policies, fighting its own gut instincts, its own ideas."
With last year's budget deficit expected to be revised to over 10 percent of GDP from the government's last estimate of 9.4 percent, even harsher measures may be needed.
The prime minister is expected this week to reveal a medium- term fiscal plan which may include steps such as a tax on fizzy drinks and more cuts to social benefits. But the government, which won 2009 elections on tax-and-spend pledges, will find it difficult to get even its own members of parliament on board.
"We can't keep saying we won't take any new measures and then keep taking them because we can't fight tax evasion, for example," said PASOK deputy Sofia Yannaka.The prospect of more belt-tightening is angering a public that has seen no top politician punished during decades of corruption, and no gain from the pain of belt-tightening.
After a year of austerity, people are not feeling any improvement in their daily lives -- television regularly shows huge queues for medicine -- while the authorities are failing to enforce even simple laws such as a smoking ban in restaurants.
"People can't stand any more austerity measures. They lead us nowhere and there are fewer and fewer jobs. Let's have a restructuring, why not? It won't make our lives worse," said Savvas Diamantides, 40, a civil engineer.
A public opinion poll last week showed 55 percent of those asked believed Greece would resort to some sort of debt restructuring or default. Although street protests against austerity have waned, more Greeks are joining the "I won't pay" movement, refusing to pay tolls or buy public transport tickets.
Analysts say the government is slow to make laws and apply them partly because of resistance from the old guard within PASOK and allied labor unions, and partly because the mechanism of administration is flawed and operates only weakly.
"What they have done so far is not enough and it is not convincing," said ALCO pollster Costas Panagopoulos. "It's reality that has enforced the restructuring debate. The risk is that the public may start to demand it as a panacea."


TIME


The shift in public opinion within Greece is mirrored to some extent by a shift in the international mood; some senior officials in euro zone governments now privately believe a Greek debt restructuring is inevitable, although they do not say so publicly for fear of panicking markets.
Dependent on foreign aid, Greece would almost certainly make any debt restructuring "voluntary" by seeking the agreement of a majority of creditors, and it would probably require a consensus among donor governments before it took action.
Such a consensus could take many months to achieve, so any restructuring might not happen this year. But bailout aid is due to stop flowing in mid-2013; before then, Greece wants to return to financing itself in the markets. When it does that, it will want to have put any restructuring behind it.
The Greek electoral timetable may also have an impact. the next elections are due by October 2013 and PASOK's lead in public opinion polls has been dropping, to 2.9 percentage points in a poll published this month from 4.9 percentage points last December.
Meanwhile, the passage of time may make a restructuring more palatable to all sides by giving the commercial banks holding Greek debt a grace period during which they can make provisions for possible losses and cut their holdings gradually.
According to figures obtained by Reuters, most of Germany's state-owned landesbanks, for example, now have exposures to Greek debt in the low hundreds of millions of euros. Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) and DZ Bank FDGBGg.F had exposures of over a billion euros at end-2010, with Commerzbank (CBKG.DE) at nearly 3 billion euros. These are big numbers but far from crippling.
 
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tommy271

Forumer storico
Greek State Government Deficit to March Increases to EU4.7 Bln

April 11, 2011, 12:34 PM EDT

By Maria Petrakis
April 11 (Bloomberg) --Greece’s central government budget deficit increased to 4.7 billion euros in the first three months of the year from 4.37 billion euros in the same period a year earlier, according to preliminary data released by the Athens- based Finance Ministry today.
Net budget revenue fell 8.1 percent to 11.1 billion euros, the ministry said. Spending was up 3.5 percent, the statement showed.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Greek Jan-March Budget Deficit Widens, But Within Target





ATHENS (Dow Jones)--Greece's state budget deficit widened 7.8% in the first three months of the year to EUR4.71 billion as revenues continued to lag, but within the first quarter target set out in the country's 2011 budget, the finance ministry said Monday.
"The deficit amounts to 4,710 million euros, just 9 million euros higher than the target of 4,701 million euros set in [the] 2011 budget for the first quarter of 2011," the ministry said. "During the same period in 2010, the state budget deficit amounted to 4,371 million euros."
According to the statement, net ordinary budget revenue for the three-month period totaled EUR11.11 billion, down 8.1% on the year and compared with an 8.5% increase targeted in the 2011 budget.
The decline in net revenue was partly affected by one-off factors from a year earlier, as well as lower collections from businesses and individuals who have been hit by Greece's ongoing recession.
However, ordinary budget outlays in January to March were up only 3.5% on the year to EUR15.8 billion, and against a 6.6% targeted increase.
"The attainment of the target for the deficit in the first quarter of 2011 was the result primarily of the containment of expenditures despite the fact that the total revenues of the state budget are 776 million euros below the target set in the 2011 budget," the statement added.
The state budget is made up of two parts, the ordinary budget, which reflects the day-to-day operations of the central government, and a separate investment budget for large public works projects.
Apart from the ordinary budget revenues and outlays, the finance ministry also recorded a more than doubling in investment budget income to EUR608 million, and a 55% drop in investment budget outlays to EUR677 million.
Last May, Greece narrowly avoided default with the help of a EUR110 billion bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund in exchange for measures to bring down its budget deficit from 15.4% of gross domestic product in 2009, to below 3% by 2014.
For this year, Greece is aiming for a budget deficit equal to 7.4% of GDP, or EUR17.0 billion. Net ordinary budget revenues are seen at EUR55.56 billion, and ordinary budget spending at EUR70.79 billion.
The state budget reflects only Greece's central government operations and doesn't include general government accounts, which comprise local government and social security fund accounts, an added portion of military spending, as well as some additional national accounts.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
ECB rate hike to hurt weak consumption, say traders

By Stelios Bouras




A decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) to increase its main interest rate for the first time since July 2008 will harm weak consumption in Greece and increase financial costs to businesses struggling in the recession, according to a traders group.
The National Confederation of Greek Commerce (ESEE) said that last week’s decision by the ECB to up its interest rate by 25 basis points 1.25 percent will bump up loan costs paid every year by households 293 million euros. Households owed 117.2 billion euros in February out of the total 256.6 billion euros of debt held by the private sector, ESEE said in a statement on Monday.
“The burdening of exhausted business and the reduction of household consumption due to higher monthly payments comes while there is a tragic lack of liquidity in the market, making the few loans available more expensive,” ESEE said.
ESEE figures showed that traders, who owed 25.1 billion euros out of the 139.4 billion euros of debt held by businesses, will pay an extra 63 billion euros in interest.
The group also called on the highly indebted Greek government to stamp out talk of debt restructuring that is harming market sentiment, by seeking better terms for the memorandum on the 110-billion-euro EU-IMF loan obtained last year.
Instead of talking about debt restructuring without knowing the exact impact on the economy... let’s carefully examine how we can extend the loan and seriously think about how we can change the terms of the memorandum that is strangling the market,” said ESEE president Vasilis Korkidis in the statement.
After holding talks over the country’s medium-term future with representatives from the country’s international lenders last week, the Finance Ministry is likely to present plans for 2012-15 aimed at implementing fiscal reforms and getting the country back on a growth track by the end of the week.
Economists at Alpha Bank also pointed out in a report on Monday the damage to the business environment from lingering uncertainty, saying that continual references to the introduction of further austerity measures ‘has kept economic sentiment at ‘exceptionally low levels.’






ekathimerini.com , Monday April 11, 2011 (16:35)
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
UPDATE 1-Greek budget gap widens, govt says meeting targets






Mon Apr 11, 2011 1:26pm EDT

* Q1 central govt deficit widens 7.8 pct yr/yr
* Deficit broadly in line with 2011 budgeted target

(Adds details)


ATHENS, April 11 (Reuters) - Greece's central government deficit widened 7.8 percent year-on-year in the first quarter to to 4.71 billion euros ($6.8 billion) from 4.37 billion in the same period a year earlier, the finance ministry said on Monday.
Budget slippage and reports that last year's fiscal gap may have overshot a previous projection, are piling pressure on the government as it readies a medium-term plan to get the deficit down to 2.6 percent of GDP by 2014.
The central government deficit in the first three months was broadly in line with 2011 budget targets, the government said in a statement.
The data refers to the state budget deficit which excludes local authorities and social security spending and do not coincide with the general government shortfall -- the benchmark for the EU's assessment of Greece's fiscal progress.
The ministry said the main reason the deficit target was attained in the first quarter was the containment of spending as budget revenue was 776 million euros below target.
Net ordinary budget revenue fell 8.1 percent year-on-year to 11.14 billion euros, mainly due to a deeper-than-projected recession.
The ministry attributed the revenue shortfall to lower proceeds from an extraordinary tax on profits of large companies and reduced receipts from personal income tax witholdings.
Last week euro zone finance ministers warned Greece of the importance of controlling spending as the overborrowed country's budget deficit likely exceeded 10 percent, topping an earlier 9.4 percent of GDP forecast.
 

russiabond

Il mito, la leggenda.
Parere personale ...

Strategia ...su eventuale Sell Off Violento ...parlo di -10-15% in un giorno e secondo giorno ancora giù ...vendite da panico insomma ....potrei switchare anche in perdita dal Venezuela con tutto All INN ....

ma credo che ci sia ancora parecchio tempo ...o scende in picchiata o resto da Chavez ...

Credo che i politici abbiano bisogno di prezzi bassi per fare proposte "decenti" ...e purtoppo portano acqua al loro mulino ...

Spero che finalmente arrivino dati OK per la Grecia altrimenti l'agonia continua ...
 
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