Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (4 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
tommy271
Forumer storico
Politica tedesca sempre più divisa:
http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/noti...esca-sempre-divisa-063751.shtml?uuid=AafDBAQD
http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/noti...esca-sempre-divisa-063751.shtml?uuid=AafDBAQD
Ultima modifica:
tommy271
Forumer storico
Greece to Sell Bills With Two-Year Bond Yields Exceeding 20%: Euro Credit
By Maria Petrakis and Natalie Weeks - Apr 19, 2011 1:00 AM GMT+0200 Mon Apr 18 23:00:01 GMT 2011
Greece’s two-year bond yield exceeded 20 percent yesterday, as official denials that the nation was preparing a restructuring failed to convince investors. The yield on 10-year debt has jumped more than 300 basis points since Feb. 15 when Greece last sold 13-week bills at a yield 3.85 percent.
“Price actions in the market suggest people believe there’s no smoke without fire,” said Richard McGuire, a senior fixed-income strategist at Rabobank International in London. “Greece will keep rolling over the bills even though the costs of doing so may be rising.”
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble’s comments on April 14 that Greece may need to restructure its debt sent bonds tumbling across peripheral Europe. The slide reversed the gains of the previous week triggered by optimism that contagion from the region’s debt crisis had been contained with Portugal’s bailout request.
Schaeuble said that his comments were misinterpreted, though German officials continued to speak of restructuring as recently as yesterday. “The big question is: will Greece make it through summer without buckling and having to find some means of restructuring its debt,” said Otto Fricke, the parliamentary budget spokesman for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Free Democratic Party coalition partner. “The signs aren’t good.”
Exit Map
Greek government spokesman George Petalotis yesterday “categorically” denied reports in newspapers, including Eleftherotypia, that Greece has asked the International Monetary Fund and the European Union, which have provided the country with a 110 billion-euro package of loans, to extend the maturities of all the country’s debt.
Additional budget measures and state-asset sales announced April 15, amounting to 76 billion euros, are “the map for the country’s exit from the crisis,” Petalotis said.
His comments echoed those of Finance Minister George PapaconstantinouWashington on April 16 and April 17 that restructuring is “simply not on the cards.” Greece also found support from IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn and French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde, who denied such steps were in the works. who said at an IMF meeting in
Default Insurance
Investors remained skeptical, and the additional yield investors demand to hold Greek 10-year debt instead of equivalent German securities yesterday surpassed 1,100 basis points for the first time since before the euro’s debut in 1999. The cost of insuring Greek sovereign debt jumped 101 basis points to a record 1,256, according to CMA prices for credit- default swaps. That indicates there’s a 65.8 percent probability of default within five years.
Mounting concerns about restructuring lifted borrowing costs for Spain at an auction yesterday. The Treasury sold 3.5 billion euros of 12-month bills at an average yield of 2.77 percent, compared with 2.128 percent at the previous auction on March 15.
“Given the current environment and the negative news flow from the periphery, some volatility into the auction and a weaker-than-usual result aren’t a big surprise,” Chiara Cremonesi, a fixed-income strategist at UniCredit, wrote from London yesterday.
Greece has only sold 26-week and 13-week bills since getting the EU-led bailout in May 2010. The last 52-week note was sold on April 13, 2010, 10 days before Prime Minister George Papandreou requested the aid and began talks with the EU and IMF. That issue was sold at 4.85 percent. Greece last week raised 2 billion euros selling 26-week bills that were priced to yield 4.8 percent.
Refinancing Needs
Greece’s refinancing needs this year of 58 billion euros are covered by the EU-IMF loan package. The big challenge comes next year. Under the aid plan, Greece is due to regain market access and refinance at least three-quarters of its maturing medium- and long-term debt, and then fully fund debt rollovers from the summer of 2013.
Greek 10-year yields have risen almost 200 basis points this year and have gained about 400 basis points since Papandreou requested the bailout to bring down borrowing costs. The jump in yields has come even after EU leaders and the IMF agreed to extend the maturities and reduce interest rates on their loans.
Under changes made last month to the region-wide rescue fund, Greece may, “as an exception,” sell bonds directly to the region’s bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, in 2012 if the nation is unable to tap markets next year. That possibility also exists for sales to the fund after 2012 so long as Greece remains in an aid program.
Benefit of Doubt
An outright debt restructuring that would reduce the net present value of debt is “a medium-term event, not a near-term event,” Deutsche Bank economists led by Thomas Mayer wrote in an April 15 note to clients.
“As long as the Greek government and people remain constructive about delivering the fiscal consolidation, privatization and structural reforms, the EU and IMF have an interest in giving them a benefit of the doubt,” Mayer wrote. “The most likely outcome is Greece’s return to the market in 2012 is back-stopped by the EFSF, in exchange for additional austerity.”
The IMF said in its March report that Greece’s debt was sustainable under the program although large risks remained, including from an increase in so-called contingent banking liabilities. That analysis said a banking shock would push debt to more than 200 percent of gross domestic product. Greek banks remain frozen out of markets and challenges are mounting as the recession deepens, the EU and IMF said.
A debt restructuring “would have disastrous consequences for the access of the government and of Greek enterprises to international financial markets, as well as a very negative effect on the assets of pension funds, banks and individuals,” Bank of Greece Governor George Provopoulos, who’s also a council member of the European Central Bank, said in a speech yesterday in Athens.
By Maria Petrakis and Natalie Weeks - Apr 19, 2011 1:00 AM GMT+0200 Mon Apr 18 23:00:01 GMT 2011
Greece’s two-year bond yield exceeded 20 percent yesterday, as official denials that the nation was preparing a restructuring failed to convince investors. The yield on 10-year debt has jumped more than 300 basis points since Feb. 15 when Greece last sold 13-week bills at a yield 3.85 percent.
“Price actions in the market suggest people believe there’s no smoke without fire,” said Richard McGuire, a senior fixed-income strategist at Rabobank International in London. “Greece will keep rolling over the bills even though the costs of doing so may be rising.”
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble’s comments on April 14 that Greece may need to restructure its debt sent bonds tumbling across peripheral Europe. The slide reversed the gains of the previous week triggered by optimism that contagion from the region’s debt crisis had been contained with Portugal’s bailout request.
Schaeuble said that his comments were misinterpreted, though German officials continued to speak of restructuring as recently as yesterday. “The big question is: will Greece make it through summer without buckling and having to find some means of restructuring its debt,” said Otto Fricke, the parliamentary budget spokesman for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Free Democratic Party coalition partner. “The signs aren’t good.”
Exit Map
Greek government spokesman George Petalotis yesterday “categorically” denied reports in newspapers, including Eleftherotypia, that Greece has asked the International Monetary Fund and the European Union, which have provided the country with a 110 billion-euro package of loans, to extend the maturities of all the country’s debt.
Additional budget measures and state-asset sales announced April 15, amounting to 76 billion euros, are “the map for the country’s exit from the crisis,” Petalotis said.
His comments echoed those of Finance Minister George PapaconstantinouWashington on April 16 and April 17 that restructuring is “simply not on the cards.” Greece also found support from IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn and French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde, who denied such steps were in the works. who said at an IMF meeting in
Default Insurance
Investors remained skeptical, and the additional yield investors demand to hold Greek 10-year debt instead of equivalent German securities yesterday surpassed 1,100 basis points for the first time since before the euro’s debut in 1999. The cost of insuring Greek sovereign debt jumped 101 basis points to a record 1,256, according to CMA prices for credit- default swaps. That indicates there’s a 65.8 percent probability of default within five years.
Mounting concerns about restructuring lifted borrowing costs for Spain at an auction yesterday. The Treasury sold 3.5 billion euros of 12-month bills at an average yield of 2.77 percent, compared with 2.128 percent at the previous auction on March 15.
“Given the current environment and the negative news flow from the periphery, some volatility into the auction and a weaker-than-usual result aren’t a big surprise,” Chiara Cremonesi, a fixed-income strategist at UniCredit, wrote from London yesterday.
Greece has only sold 26-week and 13-week bills since getting the EU-led bailout in May 2010. The last 52-week note was sold on April 13, 2010, 10 days before Prime Minister George Papandreou requested the aid and began talks with the EU and IMF. That issue was sold at 4.85 percent. Greece last week raised 2 billion euros selling 26-week bills that were priced to yield 4.8 percent.
Refinancing Needs
Greece’s refinancing needs this year of 58 billion euros are covered by the EU-IMF loan package. The big challenge comes next year. Under the aid plan, Greece is due to regain market access and refinance at least three-quarters of its maturing medium- and long-term debt, and then fully fund debt rollovers from the summer of 2013.
Greek 10-year yields have risen almost 200 basis points this year and have gained about 400 basis points since Papandreou requested the bailout to bring down borrowing costs. The jump in yields has come even after EU leaders and the IMF agreed to extend the maturities and reduce interest rates on their loans.
Under changes made last month to the region-wide rescue fund, Greece may, “as an exception,” sell bonds directly to the region’s bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, in 2012 if the nation is unable to tap markets next year. That possibility also exists for sales to the fund after 2012 so long as Greece remains in an aid program.
Benefit of Doubt
An outright debt restructuring that would reduce the net present value of debt is “a medium-term event, not a near-term event,” Deutsche Bank economists led by Thomas Mayer wrote in an April 15 note to clients.
“As long as the Greek government and people remain constructive about delivering the fiscal consolidation, privatization and structural reforms, the EU and IMF have an interest in giving them a benefit of the doubt,” Mayer wrote. “The most likely outcome is Greece’s return to the market in 2012 is back-stopped by the EFSF, in exchange for additional austerity.”
The IMF said in its March report that Greece’s debt was sustainable under the program although large risks remained, including from an increase in so-called contingent banking liabilities. That analysis said a banking shock would push debt to more than 200 percent of gross domestic product. Greek banks remain frozen out of markets and challenges are mounting as the recession deepens, the EU and IMF said.
A debt restructuring “would have disastrous consequences for the access of the government and of Greek enterprises to international financial markets, as well as a very negative effect on the assets of pension funds, banks and individuals,” Bank of Greece Governor George Provopoulos, who’s also a council member of the European Central Bank, said in a speech yesterday in Athens.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Ieri l'onda anomala che si è abbattuta sulla Grecia ha causato danni su tutto l'arco dei periferici.
Irlanda, Portogallo e Spagna hanno ritoccato nuovi massimi.
La situazione rimane molto tesa.
Appuntamento intorno alle 11,30 per l'esito dei bot/greek trimestrali.
Grecia 1131 pb. (1071)
Irlanda 668 pb. (645)
Portogallo 615 pb. (593)
Spagna 232 pb. (203)
Italia 155 pb. (136)
Belgio 107 pb. (94)
Irlanda, Portogallo e Spagna hanno ritoccato nuovi massimi.
La situazione rimane molto tesa.
Appuntamento intorno alle 11,30 per l'esito dei bot/greek trimestrali.
Grecia 1131 pb. (1071)
Irlanda 668 pb. (645)
Portogallo 615 pb. (593)
Spagna 232 pb. (203)
Italia 155 pb. (136)
Belgio 107 pb. (94)
tommy271
Forumer storico
Greece's Eur1.25bn scheduled around 9:15GMT
Tue, Apr 19 2011, 06:01 GMT | FXstreet.com Trader Talk
We've got an 87 day auction of Greece's Eur1.25bn scheduled around 9:15 GMT with the 2 year bonds yielding up to 20% yesterday.
It's going to be interesting to see the size, yield and market reaction to it.
Tue, Apr 19 2011, 06:01 GMT | FXstreet.com Trader Talk
We've got an 87 day auction of Greece's Eur1.25bn scheduled around 9:15 GMT with the 2 year bonds yielding up to 20% yesterday.
It's going to be interesting to see the size, yield and market reaction to it.
Tobia
Forumer storico
Tommy perchè inserire il Belgio tra i pigs?
tommy271
Forumer storico
Per diritto.
E' passato un anno dalle elezioni e non hanno ancora un governo. I vecchi intrallazzi "nostrani" sembrano una barzelletta in confronto.
Seguono, comunque, gli stessi movimenti di allargamento/restringimento del Club Med.
Appena ritornano sotto i 60 pb. di differenziale provvederò a toglierli dal gruppo.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Greece must meet its restructuring fate
FT.com / Comment / Opinion - Greece must meet its restructuring fate
FT.com / Comment / Opinion - Greece must meet its restructuring fate
tommy271
Forumer storico
ECB Stark: "We Cannot Do More" On Addicted Banks: Press
PARIS (MNI) - The European Central Bank has done what it can to help wean financial institutions off of their dependency on central bank funding, and completing the job is up to governments, ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark said in a newspaper interview published Tuesday.
His remarks, in Portugal's daily Publico, appear to suggest that the ECB -- at least in Stark's view -- will not be providing a new facility for the so-called "addicted" banks as had been widely expected earlier this month following a spate of media reports to that effect.
Asked by Publico about Portugal's addicted banks in particular, Stark replied: "We cannot do more in this respect. There is an overall improvement in the interbank market in the euro area, but admittedly not in all regions. What is needed is structural adjustment for the banks not to depend for too long only on the refinancing operations of the ECB."
He went on to say that banks must continue to deleverage and that the banking system must be recapitalized. "It is not our task to recapitalize banks; that is a task for governments," he said.
Stark also added his voice to the growing number of officials who have warned in recent days against assuming that the best way out for the struggling government in Greece is to restructure its sovereign debt.
And he hinted that the ECB's bond purchasing program, which has been inactive for the past three weeks, had served its purpose and may be nearing its end.
The decision to purchase bonds, taken in May 2010, "was not motivated by making it easier for countries to finance themselves," Stark asserted. "We bought government bonds on the secondary market in order to ensure the smooth functioning of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. And we see now that the transmission mechanism in the euro area as a whole works well."
Speaking in general terms about the problems faced by Greece, Ireland and Portugal, Stark declared: "There is no easy way out of this dilemma which some countries are in -- a dilemma that was created by a lack of adjustment in the past."
He added: "Now there is a need for adjustment. In this context, support by the European and international community is provided. But this support is linked to strict conditionality. It is not excluded that in the very short term the impact on economic activity might be not a positive one. However, keep in mind the medium to long term objective."
Portugal, like Ireland and Greece, now has no choice but to embrace the hard reforms that it failed to implement in the past, so that it can achieve fiscal balance and regain its competitiveness, Stark said.
"What is the alternative?" he asked. "Portugal has to pay already a very high risk premium when it tries to tap the market. So there is a risk, without the reforms, without fiscal consolidation and without the support from the European and international community that Portugal loses access to the capital market. Doing the reforms, he said, "is the only way out. And I agree, this is not without pain."
The idea of restructuring debt, as many have been suggesting as a possible solution in the case of Greece "is based on the fundamentally wrong assumption that country A or country B is insolvent," Stark argued. "This is not the case at all. The programs that are in place already [for Greece and Ireland] are based on very clear estimates of debt sustainability. So the programs would not be in place if debt sustainability were not given at the end of the program."
Although debt restructuring could "be perceived at some point by some policy-makers as an easy way out," Stark said, "it would not solve the problem -- on the contrary."
Restructuring debt -- which might take the form of stretched-out maturities, lower coupon payments or new marked-to-market replacement bonds -- would be "extremely costly to the respective countries," he said. "If they really considered restructuring debt, they would have to pay in the future a higher risk premium."
It would also have an impact on the country's banks, which hold a large proportion of the government bonds, he noted. And it would create problems for other countries as well. "I understand the argument that it is easier not to pay all the debt and somebody else has to bear the cost, but it is not the solution," he said.
Stark, like ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, denied the ECB had put any pressure on Portuguese banks to stop buying the sovereign debt of its own government -- presumably to force Lisbon to request a bailout package. "I think the President of the ECB has clarified this. There was no pressure of the ECB on anybody or any institution," he asserted.
Stark repeated his argument that a recent agreement by EU leaders to strengthen fiscal and macroeconomic surveillance was "an important step in the right direction, but it is not the quantum leap we requested."
There needs to be more automaticity in applying sanctions on those who violate the fiscal rules, and those sanctions need to be applied earlier, he said.
"The crisis gave a window of opportunity for policy-makers to change and be more ambitious. The governments have not fully made use of his window of opportunity," Stark lamented. "But this is not the end of the day. I hope that further strengthening in economic governance can be achieved."
PARIS (MNI) - The European Central Bank has done what it can to help wean financial institutions off of their dependency on central bank funding, and completing the job is up to governments, ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark said in a newspaper interview published Tuesday.
His remarks, in Portugal's daily Publico, appear to suggest that the ECB -- at least in Stark's view -- will not be providing a new facility for the so-called "addicted" banks as had been widely expected earlier this month following a spate of media reports to that effect.
Asked by Publico about Portugal's addicted banks in particular, Stark replied: "We cannot do more in this respect. There is an overall improvement in the interbank market in the euro area, but admittedly not in all regions. What is needed is structural adjustment for the banks not to depend for too long only on the refinancing operations of the ECB."
He went on to say that banks must continue to deleverage and that the banking system must be recapitalized. "It is not our task to recapitalize banks; that is a task for governments," he said.
Stark also added his voice to the growing number of officials who have warned in recent days against assuming that the best way out for the struggling government in Greece is to restructure its sovereign debt.
And he hinted that the ECB's bond purchasing program, which has been inactive for the past three weeks, had served its purpose and may be nearing its end.
The decision to purchase bonds, taken in May 2010, "was not motivated by making it easier for countries to finance themselves," Stark asserted. "We bought government bonds on the secondary market in order to ensure the smooth functioning of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. And we see now that the transmission mechanism in the euro area as a whole works well."
Speaking in general terms about the problems faced by Greece, Ireland and Portugal, Stark declared: "There is no easy way out of this dilemma which some countries are in -- a dilemma that was created by a lack of adjustment in the past."
He added: "Now there is a need for adjustment. In this context, support by the European and international community is provided. But this support is linked to strict conditionality. It is not excluded that in the very short term the impact on economic activity might be not a positive one. However, keep in mind the medium to long term objective."
Portugal, like Ireland and Greece, now has no choice but to embrace the hard reforms that it failed to implement in the past, so that it can achieve fiscal balance and regain its competitiveness, Stark said.
"What is the alternative?" he asked. "Portugal has to pay already a very high risk premium when it tries to tap the market. So there is a risk, without the reforms, without fiscal consolidation and without the support from the European and international community that Portugal loses access to the capital market. Doing the reforms, he said, "is the only way out. And I agree, this is not without pain."
The idea of restructuring debt, as many have been suggesting as a possible solution in the case of Greece "is based on the fundamentally wrong assumption that country A or country B is insolvent," Stark argued. "This is not the case at all. The programs that are in place already [for Greece and Ireland] are based on very clear estimates of debt sustainability. So the programs would not be in place if debt sustainability were not given at the end of the program."
Although debt restructuring could "be perceived at some point by some policy-makers as an easy way out," Stark said, "it would not solve the problem -- on the contrary."
Restructuring debt -- which might take the form of stretched-out maturities, lower coupon payments or new marked-to-market replacement bonds -- would be "extremely costly to the respective countries," he said. "If they really considered restructuring debt, they would have to pay in the future a higher risk premium."
It would also have an impact on the country's banks, which hold a large proportion of the government bonds, he noted. And it would create problems for other countries as well. "I understand the argument that it is easier not to pay all the debt and somebody else has to bear the cost, but it is not the solution," he said.
Stark, like ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, denied the ECB had put any pressure on Portuguese banks to stop buying the sovereign debt of its own government -- presumably to force Lisbon to request a bailout package. "I think the President of the ECB has clarified this. There was no pressure of the ECB on anybody or any institution," he asserted.
Stark repeated his argument that a recent agreement by EU leaders to strengthen fiscal and macroeconomic surveillance was "an important step in the right direction, but it is not the quantum leap we requested."
There needs to be more automaticity in applying sanctions on those who violate the fiscal rules, and those sanctions need to be applied earlier, he said.
"The crisis gave a window of opportunity for policy-makers to change and be more ambitious. The governments have not fully made use of his window of opportunity," Stark lamented. "But this is not the end of the day. I hope that further strengthening in economic governance can be achieved."
- Stato