amorgos34
CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
Certo.
Infatti ieri alcuni titoli lunghi sono cresciuti (hanno switchato da posizioni brevi).
D'accordissimo con te .
.
Invitavo e invito a guardare la terribile curva dei "rendimenti"
Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (10 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
Certo.
Infatti ieri alcuni titoli lunghi sono cresciuti (hanno switchato da posizioni brevi).
D'accordissimo con te .
.
Invitavo e invito a guardare la terribile curva dei "rendimenti"
tommy271
Forumer storico
Oggi la Grecia 2014 (cedola 5,5%) si comprava a 60.
Vorrei capire se c'è qualcuno che crede che questa sarà riscadenziata (bel termine, mi piace) al 2019 (vedo che molti nel forum ritengono 5 anni uno spostamento possibile) (cioè al 2019 darebbero 100), conservando anche la cedola al 5,5 % di facciale (comprandola a 60 diventerebbe anche un discreto interesse).
Permettetemi di dubitare.
Non so se avete visto la curva dei rendimenti....
Ciao Amorgos, dubbio pienamente legittimo.
Essendo su titoli che, al momento, vengono giudicati i più rischiosi al mondo.
Ognuno ha le sue ipotesi.
Verso i mercati finanziari ed alle loro curve ho il massimo rispetto. Ma se la questione fosse solo di matematica finanziaria o di statistica penso che basterebbe un computer per organizzare gli acquisti/vendite.
Specie su titoli, come quelli di stato, che incorporano una buona variante di possibilità rispetto ai più semplici corporate.
Con questo non invito nessuno all'acquisto, del resto cosa conta il forum e lo stesso Mot difronte a movimenti della speculazione internazionale?
Mi limito a fotografare gli accadimenti e ad essere un pò "tifoso" di questi titoli. Ho sempre consigliato, tuttavia, di non eccedere oltre il 5/10% la quota di portafoglio che riserva un investitore attento e consapevole.
Non mi ritengo un analista freddo e calcolatore.
tommy271
Forumer storico
come no, e' stata appena sepolta e coperta da almeno tre metri di terra.
Come quella di mio padre aviatore ...
.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Ieri altra giornata di massimi storici sui periferici, dato che avvalora la mia tesi che ben difficilmente le sorti della Grecia possano essere disgiunte dal resto del Club Med allargato all'Irlanda.
Dunque nuovi massimi per Grecia, Irlanda e Portogallo mentre il resto del gruppo rimane correlato nei movimenti nei periodi di massima tensione.
Ormai è dato per assodato un default della Grecia, io rimango tuttavia ottimista in una soluzione ragionevole del problema che ho descritto nei post precedenti.
Pronto a prenderne atto, in caso contrario.
Grecia 1232 pb. (1182)
Irlanda 756 pb. (727)
Portogallo 665 pb. (644)
Spagna 225 pb. (222)
Italia 159 pb. (150)
Belgio 108 pb. (104)
Dunque nuovi massimi per Grecia, Irlanda e Portogallo mentre il resto del gruppo rimane correlato nei movimenti nei periodi di massima tensione.
Ormai è dato per assodato un default della Grecia, io rimango tuttavia ottimista in una soluzione ragionevole del problema che ho descritto nei post precedenti.
Pronto a prenderne atto, in caso contrario.
Grecia 1232 pb. (1182)
Irlanda 756 pb. (727)
Portogallo 665 pb. (644)
Spagna 225 pb. (222)
Italia 159 pb. (150)
Belgio 108 pb. (104)
tommy271
Forumer storico
All necessary measures to achieve targets
(ANA-MPA)-The Greek government remains dedicated to the targets of its Economic Policy Program and will take all the necessary measures to achieve them, the finance ministry said on Tuesday after an upward revision of the country's fiscal (government) deficit for 2010 to 10.5 percent of GDP from an initial forecast of 9.4 percent, which it attributed mainly to an anticipated repercussion of recession and shortfall in tax revenues.
In an announcement, the finance ministry said the divergence between Eurostat's revised figure (10.5 percent) and the initial forecast contained in the 2011 state budget (9.4 percent) for the 2010 general government deficit was due chiefly to a larger than anticipated effect of recession on GDP in 2010 and decline in tax revenues.
According to the Eurostat report for the entire European Union released on Tuesday in Brussels, the ministry continued, Greece has the second largest deficit in the EU after Ireland (32.4 percent of GDP), and was very close to that of the UK (10.4 percent, the third highest deficit), followed by Spain (9.2 percent) and Portugal (9.1).
Greece, however, also achieved the biggest deficit reduction ever in a Euro Area country in a single year (10.5 percent of GDP from 15.6 percent in 2009). the ministry pointed out.
(ana.gr)
(ANA-MPA)-The Greek government remains dedicated to the targets of its Economic Policy Program and will take all the necessary measures to achieve them, the finance ministry said on Tuesday after an upward revision of the country's fiscal (government) deficit for 2010 to 10.5 percent of GDP from an initial forecast of 9.4 percent, which it attributed mainly to an anticipated repercussion of recession and shortfall in tax revenues.
In an announcement, the finance ministry said the divergence between Eurostat's revised figure (10.5 percent) and the initial forecast contained in the 2011 state budget (9.4 percent) for the 2010 general government deficit was due chiefly to a larger than anticipated effect of recession on GDP in 2010 and decline in tax revenues.
According to the Eurostat report for the entire European Union released on Tuesday in Brussels, the ministry continued, Greece has the second largest deficit in the EU after Ireland (32.4 percent of GDP), and was very close to that of the UK (10.4 percent, the third highest deficit), followed by Spain (9.2 percent) and Portugal (9.1).
Greece, however, also achieved the biggest deficit reduction ever in a Euro Area country in a single year (10.5 percent of GDP from 15.6 percent in 2009). the ministry pointed out.
(ana.gr)
tommy271
Forumer storico
Dopo l'outlook negativo alla tripla AAA USA da parte di S&P oggi un altro outlook negativo per il Giappone doppia AA.
Dopo aver salvato il sistema finanziario ad essere in pericolo risultano ora i bilanci statali. Pronti a rilanciare la palla di nuovo verso i corporate quando questi inizieranno a risalire ...
Una toppa qua e una toppa là.
Dopo aver salvato il sistema finanziario ad essere in pericolo risultano ora i bilanci statali. Pronti a rilanciare la palla di nuovo verso i corporate quando questi inizieranno a risalire ...
Una toppa qua e una toppa là.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Deficit figure triggers new round of bickering
Argument between PASOK and ND over public finances disguises deeper internal rifts
An argument between PASOK and New Democracy on Tuesday over the size of Greece’s public deficit, which was confirmed at 10.5 percent of gross domestic product for 2010, disguised internal rifts both within the government and the main opposition party.
Greece’s 2010 deficit figure was rubber-stamped by the European Commission’s statistical arm, Eurostat, but New Democracy immediately reminded voters that earlier in the year it was expected to be about 1 percent lower. The conservatives said this was down to reduced revenues, which were caused by the government’s decision to tax households and businesses more. ND repeated its position that only economic growth can really restore Greece’s public finances to good health.
Government spokesman Giorgos Petalotis, however, responded by reminding Greeks that even though the figure was higher than had been expected earlier in the year, it still represented a massive cut in the public deficit. “We achieved a deficit reduction last year of 5 percent, the largest in the EU and during a recession,” he said.
However, the dispute between the two parties was minor in comparison to the friction within their ranks.
At New Democracy, high-profile party members continued their attacks on former Economy and Finance Minister Giorgos Alogoskoufis. ND spokesman Yiannis Michelakis triggered the internal conflict last week when he criticized the decision of the conservative government that came to power in 2004 to carry out an audit of public finances that led to the public deficit being revised upward. Yesterday, a close aide of ND leader Antonis Samaras, Chrysanthos Lazaridis, fueled the debate by labeling the audit “criminal.” Alogoskoufis insisted it was a decision of “national responsibility.”
The row is an indication of Samaras’s intention to make a clean break with the party’s recent past, even if it means a full-blown clash with ex-Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis and his team.
At PASOK, meanwhile, Environment Minister Tina Birbili indicated her dislike for plans to allow owners of illegally built homes to pay a fee to protect the properties from demolition. The government’s intention was announced by Finance Minister Giorgos Papconstantinou last week but Birbili said that she has no intention of there to be an “environmental excuse for policies that are only designed to raise revenues.”
ekathimerini.com , Tuesday April 26, 2011 (23:11)
***
Il dibattito interno alle principali forze politiche elleniche.
Argument between PASOK and ND over public finances disguises deeper internal rifts
Greece’s 2010 deficit figure was rubber-stamped by the European Commission’s statistical arm, Eurostat, but New Democracy immediately reminded voters that earlier in the year it was expected to be about 1 percent lower. The conservatives said this was down to reduced revenues, which were caused by the government’s decision to tax households and businesses more. ND repeated its position that only economic growth can really restore Greece’s public finances to good health.
Government spokesman Giorgos Petalotis, however, responded by reminding Greeks that even though the figure was higher than had been expected earlier in the year, it still represented a massive cut in the public deficit. “We achieved a deficit reduction last year of 5 percent, the largest in the EU and during a recession,” he said.
However, the dispute between the two parties was minor in comparison to the friction within their ranks.
At New Democracy, high-profile party members continued their attacks on former Economy and Finance Minister Giorgos Alogoskoufis. ND spokesman Yiannis Michelakis triggered the internal conflict last week when he criticized the decision of the conservative government that came to power in 2004 to carry out an audit of public finances that led to the public deficit being revised upward. Yesterday, a close aide of ND leader Antonis Samaras, Chrysanthos Lazaridis, fueled the debate by labeling the audit “criminal.” Alogoskoufis insisted it was a decision of “national responsibility.”
The row is an indication of Samaras’s intention to make a clean break with the party’s recent past, even if it means a full-blown clash with ex-Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis and his team.
At PASOK, meanwhile, Environment Minister Tina Birbili indicated her dislike for plans to allow owners of illegally built homes to pay a fee to protect the properties from demolition. The government’s intention was announced by Finance Minister Giorgos Papconstantinou last week but Birbili said that she has no intention of there to be an “environmental excuse for policies that are only designed to raise revenues.”
ekathimerini.com , Tuesday April 26, 2011 (23:11)
***
Il dibattito interno alle principali forze politiche elleniche.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Shipowners invest $2 billion in new vessels
By Nikos Bardounias
Greek shipowners invested about $2 billion in new ship orders during the first three months of the year, according to data compiled by Golden Destiny shipbrokers.
In the January-March period, Greek shipowners appear to have signed orders for 29 new vessels with a total capacity of 2.18 million deadweight tons and totaling at least $1.07 billion. However, the Golden Destiny report suggests that the value of just over half of the contracts (15 out of 29) has not been publicized, but estimates put their total at about $900 million.
Dry-bulk carriers are still Greek shipowners’ main demand, with 15 orders in the first three months of the year, but container ships are now in second place with 10 orders (totaling $503 million), sailing past tankers, which used to be in far greater demand in previous years.
During the whole of 2010, Greek shipowners placed orders for 250 new ships with a total capacity of 26.66 million deadweight tons and value of $7.6 billion, although the value of 105 contracts was not made known.
Dry-bulkers led demand in 2010 with 154 contracts and a total capacity of 13.69 million deadweight tons. Tankers followed with 68 orders adding up to 11.6 million dwt, while there were 21 orders for new container ships with a total capacity of 1.18 million dwt. There were also orders for five new liquefied petroleum gas carriers and for two passenger vessels.
Among the groups to have made orders during the year’s first quarter are Costamare of the Konstantakopoulos family, Tsakos Shipping & Trading, Michael Bodouroglou’s Paragon Shipping, Dinos Martinos’s Thenamaris, Vangelis Marinakis’s Container Carrier Corporation and Kriton Lendoudis’s Evalend Shipping.
ekathimerini.com , Tuesday April 26, 2011 (20:43)
***
Lo shipping rimane sempre un settore di punta.
By Nikos Bardounias
Greek shipowners invested about $2 billion in new ship orders during the first three months of the year, according to data compiled by Golden Destiny shipbrokers.
In the January-March period, Greek shipowners appear to have signed orders for 29 new vessels with a total capacity of 2.18 million deadweight tons and totaling at least $1.07 billion. However, the Golden Destiny report suggests that the value of just over half of the contracts (15 out of 29) has not been publicized, but estimates put their total at about $900 million.
Dry-bulk carriers are still Greek shipowners’ main demand, with 15 orders in the first three months of the year, but container ships are now in second place with 10 orders (totaling $503 million), sailing past tankers, which used to be in far greater demand in previous years.
During the whole of 2010, Greek shipowners placed orders for 250 new ships with a total capacity of 26.66 million deadweight tons and value of $7.6 billion, although the value of 105 contracts was not made known.
Dry-bulkers led demand in 2010 with 154 contracts and a total capacity of 13.69 million deadweight tons. Tankers followed with 68 orders adding up to 11.6 million dwt, while there were 21 orders for new container ships with a total capacity of 1.18 million dwt. There were also orders for five new liquefied petroleum gas carriers and for two passenger vessels.
Among the groups to have made orders during the year’s first quarter are Costamare of the Konstantakopoulos family, Tsakos Shipping & Trading, Michael Bodouroglou’s Paragon Shipping, Dinos Martinos’s Thenamaris, Vangelis Marinakis’s Container Carrier Corporation and Kriton Lendoudis’s Evalend Shipping.
ekathimerini.com , Tuesday April 26, 2011 (20:43)
***
Lo shipping rimane sempre un settore di punta.
AAAA47
Forumer storico
ok, tu dici che vanno a 50 perche' si aspettano un haircut a 50, io dico vanno a 50 perche' si aspettano un default con rimborso (che sarebbe uguale per tutti) a 50
supponiamo un haircut come dici tu a meta' prezzo
quindi un 2014 preso a 60, rimborsa a 50 nel 2014 pagando pertanto la meta' delle cedole
ma un 2040, preso oggi a 50, che rimborsi nel 2040 a 50, con una cedola ridicola, equivale ad un 2040 preso oggi a 100, con rimborso a 100 tra 30anni, con cedola ridicola, sappiamo tutti che non varrebbe piu' di 60-65 anche se la grecia fosse in ottime condizioni, ossia 30-35 rispetto alla quotazione attuale, per questo ritengo i 50 del 2040 esagerati a meno che non si pensi ad un default (e se ho recuperato 33$ dai bond GM comprati a 6$, mi pare sensato pensare che almeno 40-50 si possa recuperare dalla grecia, per questo i prezzi attuali fanno meno paura dei precedenti, la perdita potenziale e' comunque nettamente piu' limitata rispetto a chi li ha comprati a 100 (altro esempio del mercato che sbagliava quotando i grecia anche sopra 100....)
cmq, visti gli innumerevoli precedenti (anche recentissimi) nei quali il mercato ha sempre sbagliato, non farei troppo affidamento su quello che pensa il mercato...anzi...
tommy271
Forumer storico
Bond euro aprono poco variati, occhi asta Bund 10 anni, Grecia
mercoledì 27 aprile 2011 08:57
LONDRA, 27 aprile (Reuters) - I futures Bund hanno aperto
poco variati con gli investitori che si preparano all'asta sul
nuovo decennale tedesco offerto per circa 6 miliardi di euro,
mentre i mercati periferici restano sotto pressione sulle
ipotesi di ristrutturazione del debito greco.
I dealer dicono che il Bund offerto in asta sembra costoso
dopo il recente fly-to-quality a causa dei timori per il debito
greco.
Tuttavia gli investitori alla ricerca di un rifugio sicuro
dovrebbero sostenere l'asta, con alcuni analisti che dicono che
una parte dei 35 miliardi di euro di bond e cedole francesi in
scadenza questa settimana potrebbe spostarsi sul nuovo titolo
tedesco.
"La periferia è sotto pressione, ma abbiamo un bel po' di
aste da guardare in un mercato sottile" ha detto un dealer.
"L'offerta tedesca non sembra particolarmente a buon mercato, ma
dovrebbe andare tutto bene".
In calendario oggi anche la riapertura in Italia di due Btp
indicizzati 15/09/2016 e 15/09/2021 per un importo massimo fino
a 1,75 miliardi di euro.
mercoledì 27 aprile 2011 08:57
LONDRA, 27 aprile (Reuters) - I futures Bund hanno aperto
poco variati con gli investitori che si preparano all'asta sul
nuovo decennale tedesco offerto per circa 6 miliardi di euro,
mentre i mercati periferici restano sotto pressione sulle
ipotesi di ristrutturazione del debito greco.
I dealer dicono che il Bund offerto in asta sembra costoso
dopo il recente fly-to-quality a causa dei timori per il debito
greco.
Tuttavia gli investitori alla ricerca di un rifugio sicuro
dovrebbero sostenere l'asta, con alcuni analisti che dicono che
una parte dei 35 miliardi di euro di bond e cedole francesi in
scadenza questa settimana potrebbe spostarsi sul nuovo titolo
tedesco.
"La periferia è sotto pressione, ma abbiamo un bel po' di
aste da guardare in un mercato sottile" ha detto un dealer.
"L'offerta tedesca non sembra particolarmente a buon mercato, ma
dovrebbe andare tutto bene".
In calendario oggi anche la riapertura in Italia di due Btp
indicizzati 15/09/2016 e 15/09/2021 per un importo massimo fino
a 1,75 miliardi di euro.
- Stato