Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (37 lettori)
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tommy271
Forumer storico
ECB funding to Greek banks drops 4.2 pct m/m in Feb
ATHENS, April 28 | Thu Apr 28, 2011 4:48am EDT
ATHENS, April 28 (Reuters) - ECB funding to Greek banks .FTATBNK fell 4.2 percent in February from the previous month, Greek central bank data showed on Thursday.
Lending to Greek banks, dropped to 90.44 billion euros ($134.2 billion) at the end of February from 94.44 billion in January, the Bank of Greece said.
Greek banks lost wholesale market access in the wake of the country's debt crisis, becoming increasingly reliant on the European Central Bank. The ECB's funding to Greek lenders almost doubled last year to 97.67 billion at the end of December from 49.7 billion euros at the start of 2010.
National Bank of Greece (NBGr.AT) and EFG Eurobank (EFGr.AT), Greece's two biggest lenders, have in recent months begun to open up credit lines with foreign banks.
ATHENS, April 28 | Thu Apr 28, 2011 4:48am EDT
ATHENS, April 28 (Reuters) - ECB funding to Greek banks .FTATBNK fell 4.2 percent in February from the previous month, Greek central bank data showed on Thursday.
Lending to Greek banks, dropped to 90.44 billion euros ($134.2 billion) at the end of February from 94.44 billion in January, the Bank of Greece said.
Greek banks lost wholesale market access in the wake of the country's debt crisis, becoming increasingly reliant on the European Central Bank. The ECB's funding to Greek lenders almost doubled last year to 97.67 billion at the end of December from 49.7 billion euros at the start of 2010.
National Bank of Greece (NBGr.AT) and EFG Eurobank (EFGr.AT), Greece's two biggest lenders, have in recent months begun to open up credit lines with foreign banks.
gianfranco199
Forumer attivo
Capisco la fiducia incrollabile,ma dopo il tonfo di ieri, almeno per le mia 2019 del 5% e default,come unica parola in bocca, a tutti,mi sembra troppo, parlare ancora di ipotesi di rimbalzo.Io so solo che ad oggi sono a - 43% e vedere il dollaro prossimo a 1,50 ,mi lascia sempre più basito.Non vorrei che avessero già scontato i mesi scorsi ,una ristrutturazione greca.
tommy271
Forumer storico
EURO GOVT-Greek bond yields set to rise, trade volatile
Thu Apr 28, 2011 5:10am EDT
* Greek bond yields volatile, seen rising further
* Investors increasingly pricing haircuts on Greek debt
* Italian auction seen well-bid after recent yield rise
By Marius Zaharia
LONDON, April 28 (Reuters) - Greek government bond yields zig-zagged within a wide range on Thursday, but were expected to move higher as investors become increasingly convinced a debt restructuring is looming.
Greek two-year yields GR2YT=TWEB fluctuated between 24 and 27.1 percent, having risen 2 percentage points in the previous session to 26.9 percent.
A bid/ask spread of 571 basis points -- its highest since May 2010, when Greece was granted a bailout -- indicated volumes were extremely low, exacerbating moves, but traders said the bias was for yields to rise.
"There's no real turnaround in the sentiment. Bid/offers are very wide, some people get stopped out of positions," one trader said. "If you're talking about restructuring you really don't want to be there."
Market participants see a growing probability that a Greek restructuring could happen this year or next. Among numerous scenarios, investors may have to accept lower coupon payments, a maturity extension, haircuts, or a combination of the above.
The uncertainty is leading investors to prepare for what is probably the worst case scenario, painted by Standard & Poor's earlier this year -- a 50-70 percent haircut, traders said.
The two-year bond GR2YT=TWEB, the worst hit since Germany suggested Greece may have to restructure, trades at about 68 percent of its face value.
"The market has just completely lost any confidence that they will be able honour their debt as it stands," said Elisabeth Afseth, fixed income analyst at Evolution Securities.
She said that for a 60 percent haircut to be fully priced in, the two-year bond's face value would need to drop to 40 percent, but such a move was unlikely to be a first step.
"A change in maturity is more likely ... so I suspect there will be someone coming in who sees value in the two-year before it reaches anything like under 40 in the price. The 50 on longer maturities is an obvious psychological level for no other reason than it's a nice round number."
Thu Apr 28, 2011 5:10am EDT
* Greek bond yields volatile, seen rising further
* Investors increasingly pricing haircuts on Greek debt
* Italian auction seen well-bid after recent yield rise
By Marius Zaharia
LONDON, April 28 (Reuters) - Greek government bond yields zig-zagged within a wide range on Thursday, but were expected to move higher as investors become increasingly convinced a debt restructuring is looming.
Greek two-year yields GR2YT=TWEB fluctuated between 24 and 27.1 percent, having risen 2 percentage points in the previous session to 26.9 percent.
A bid/ask spread of 571 basis points -- its highest since May 2010, when Greece was granted a bailout -- indicated volumes were extremely low, exacerbating moves, but traders said the bias was for yields to rise.
"There's no real turnaround in the sentiment. Bid/offers are very wide, some people get stopped out of positions," one trader said. "If you're talking about restructuring you really don't want to be there."
Market participants see a growing probability that a Greek restructuring could happen this year or next. Among numerous scenarios, investors may have to accept lower coupon payments, a maturity extension, haircuts, or a combination of the above.
The uncertainty is leading investors to prepare for what is probably the worst case scenario, painted by Standard & Poor's earlier this year -- a 50-70 percent haircut, traders said.
The two-year bond GR2YT=TWEB, the worst hit since Germany suggested Greece may have to restructure, trades at about 68 percent of its face value.
"The market has just completely lost any confidence that they will be able honour their debt as it stands," said Elisabeth Afseth, fixed income analyst at Evolution Securities.
She said that for a 60 percent haircut to be fully priced in, the two-year bond's face value would need to drop to 40 percent, but such a move was unlikely to be a first step.
"A change in maturity is more likely ... so I suspect there will be someone coming in who sees value in the two-year before it reaches anything like under 40 in the price. The 50 on longer maturities is an obvious psychological level for no other reason than it's a nice round number."
tommy271
Forumer storico
Ciao Gianfranco, la perdita è ingente ma - al momento - virtuale.
Vedremo cosa succederà più avanti ed incrociamo le dita. Certamente la situazione è pesante, ma non è disperata.
Non c'è solo buio in fondo al tunnel, ci sono ragionevoli soluzioni di uscita.
Basta avere la volontà di percorrerle da parte UE.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Peripheral Euro-Zone Sovereign Bonds Steady, Trading Light
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Bonds issued by financially weaker peripheral euro-zone countries were steady or in some cases slightly stronger Thursday, on very light trading ahead of another four-day weekend in the U.K.
Yields on two-year Greek bonds, which have been leaping higher on a daily basis this week on debt restructuring fears, were 32.5 basis points lower at 24.18%, according to Tradeweb.
Greek five-year yields were unchanged at 21.55%. Greek bonds maturing in five years or more now price in a 50% loss of principal to investors who bought them at par, according to ING.
Irish two-year and five-year yields were 10 basis points tighter and 10 basis points wider respectively. Portuguese two-year yields were just 3.5 basis points higher, while five-year yields rose 14 basis points to 11.42%.
Spain, which has successfully de-coupled from the more stressed peripherals in recent trading sessions, saw its two-year yields drop seven basis points to 3.39% and its five-year yields drop six basis points to 4.66%.
Traders said that activity was minimal ahead of the U.K. holiday.
"We've seen very few trades, especially in Greece," said one trader, adding that "there is generally a better tone across the board" following Ben Bernanke's press conference Wednesday, where the Fed President played down the chances of a rate increase and did not indicate that there are any plans to end the central bank's extraordinary stimulus measures ahead of schedule.
"The boost to the 'risk on' trade in the form of yesterday's Fed meeting also provides a conducive backdrop to peripheral debt," said Richard McGuire, senior fixed income strategist at Rabobank in London, in a note.
The cost of credit default swaps written on peripheral euro-zone sovereign debt also fell Thursday morning, according to Markit.
***
Uno sguardo ad ampio raggio sui Periferici ...
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Bonds issued by financially weaker peripheral euro-zone countries were steady or in some cases slightly stronger Thursday, on very light trading ahead of another four-day weekend in the U.K.
Yields on two-year Greek bonds, which have been leaping higher on a daily basis this week on debt restructuring fears, were 32.5 basis points lower at 24.18%, according to Tradeweb.
Greek five-year yields were unchanged at 21.55%. Greek bonds maturing in five years or more now price in a 50% loss of principal to investors who bought them at par, according to ING.
Irish two-year and five-year yields were 10 basis points tighter and 10 basis points wider respectively. Portuguese two-year yields were just 3.5 basis points higher, while five-year yields rose 14 basis points to 11.42%.
Spain, which has successfully de-coupled from the more stressed peripherals in recent trading sessions, saw its two-year yields drop seven basis points to 3.39% and its five-year yields drop six basis points to 4.66%.
Traders said that activity was minimal ahead of the U.K. holiday.
"We've seen very few trades, especially in Greece," said one trader, adding that "there is generally a better tone across the board" following Ben Bernanke's press conference Wednesday, where the Fed President played down the chances of a rate increase and did not indicate that there are any plans to end the central bank's extraordinary stimulus measures ahead of schedule.
"The boost to the 'risk on' trade in the form of yesterday's Fed meeting also provides a conducive backdrop to peripheral debt," said Richard McGuire, senior fixed income strategist at Rabobank in London, in a note.
The cost of credit default swaps written on peripheral euro-zone sovereign debt also fell Thursday morning, according to Markit.
***
Uno sguardo ad ampio raggio sui Periferici ...
ferdo
Utente Senior
METHOS
Forumer storico
Ho letto sulla Stampa che un economista (desmond lachman) che ha lavorato per il FMI stima in 375 mld di perdita per la BCE in caso di fallimento dell'irlanda, portogallo e grecia. Inoltre pensa che sia inevitabile il fallimento di questi stati e auspicabile un'uscita dall'euro...
Ultima modifica:
Massimum
Forumer storico
Sulla Grecia sono abbastanza d'accordo con la conclusione
Secondo me infatti il problema vero della Grecia non è il debito ma i 10 punti di PIL di deficit.
Qualunque cosa venga fatta per ristrutturare il debito sarà ininfluente perchè a questo ritmo tra meno di dieci anni si tornerebbe al punto di partenza.
La realtà è che il tenore di vita dei greci deve calare drasticamente perchè la produttività della loro economia non giustifica quello attuale. Per farlo ci sono tre modi:
1. Inflazione
2. Svalutazione
3. Forte riduzione dei salari
Restando nell'euro l'unica strada è la 3, ed è la più dolorosa perchè prevede, oltre alla riduzione del tenore di vita, anche la necessità di pagare realmente i debiti pregressi. E secondo me è una strada impossibile per la Grecia.
L'unico modo di risolvere in maniera strutturale il problema secondo me è un default + svalutazione in stile argentino. Altrimenti sarebbe solo un dilazionare il problema.
Questa soluzione è però tecnicamente abbastanza complessa, soprattutto perchè la moneta greca è fisicamente la stessa del resto dell'area Euro (e non un semplice regime di cambi fissi come nel caso argentino). La mia opinione è che questi due anni stanno servendo a disinnescare i rischi sistemici di un default greco in stile argentino.
L'alternativa di avere una Grecia mantenuta all'infinito (perchè 10 o più anni sono di fatto l'infinito) dal resto dell'Europa mi sembra una soluzione politicamente impossibile.
Magari mi sbaglio ma questa è la mia view macroeconomica ed è per questo che, seppur tentato dai rendimenti, non ho comprato.
Ovviamente chi vivrà vedrà
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