frmaoro
il Fankazzista
ormai posso dire quello che vogliono a questi prezzi è tutto iperscontato
buffoni
Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
buffoni
g.ln
Triplo Panico: comprare
tommy271
Forumer storico
EURO GOVT-Greek bailout prospects knock Bund future lower
Fri Jun 3, 2011 5:38am EDT
* Euro zone officials appear closer to Greek bailout
* Soft U.S. jobs data seen limiting downside for Bunds
* U.S. Treasuries outperform Bunds despite Moody's comments
By Ana Nicolaci da Costa
LONDON, June 3 (Reuters) - German bonds fell on Friday as euro zone officials appeared to be inching closer to a second bailout for Greece but losses should be limited with data expected to show some weakness in the U.S. labour market.
Senior euro zone officials meeting in Vienna agreed in principle to a new three-year programme for Greece to run until mid-2014, a source close to the talks said on Thursday. <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Reuters Breakingviews "Vienna Initiative" calculator
r.reuters.com/jeh89r ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
Greece, for its part, was set to impose deeper austerity on its economy and to promise to speed up a privatisation drive.
Prime Minister George Papandreou will meet the chairman of euro zone finance ministers on Friday and Greece is hoping that if it shows willingness to impose austerity it will secure a new international bailout and avoid a debt default.
Optimism over the aid plan pushed the June Bund future FGBLM1 32 ticks lower to 125.40.
Benchmark bonds have benefited in recent weeks from concerns about Greece's debt crisis and potential contagion effects to other heavily indebted euro zone states.
"Greece is the main catalyst here. People have been discounting a lot of negative news on the economic side and at the moment people are focusing more on the market-friendly news that seems to come out of Greece," Gianluca Salford, European fixed income strategist at JP Morgan said.
"I think they have a plan in their head that is reasonable for kicking the can down the road another three months."
The prospect of a further bailout plan also eased the pressure on lower-rated euro zone bonds although their yields remained at elevated levels, showing concerns over a long-term solution for the euro zone debt crisis remained.
Two-year Greek bond prices GR2YT=TWEB rose, pushing yields 115 basis points lower to 24.185 percent. Equivalent Portuguese yields PT2YT=TWEB shed 32 basis points to 11.45 percent.
The next challenge for peripheral bonds will be a snap Portuguese general election on Sunday, with the next government poised to enact tough austerity under a 78-billion-euro bailout. [ID:nLDE7501DS].
"The key to this election is arguably the share of the vote enjoyed by the winner rather than who the actual winner is," Rabobank said in a note. "More important will be the next government's ability to push through these reforms and this will depend upon the size of its majority."
SOFT PATCH, HARD TIMES
Concerns over the global economy could continue to provide the bond market with underlying support after recent U.S. and euro zone data and a recession in Japan raised doubts over the sustainability of a recovery.
The market was already priced for a lower U.S. jobs figure later this session but a surprise to the downside could see bonds scale back losses.
U.S. employment probably lost steam in May, with the economy expected to have created 150,000 jobs last month, according to a Reuters survey, after advancing by an 11-month-high of 244,000 jobs in April. [ID:nN02277124].
A weak figure could also fuel speculation the Federal Reserve may resort to more quantitative easing after it concludes its $600 billion bond-buying programme this month although such plans could face stern opposition.
"People are looking for a low number, probably they are looking for 140,000, maybe 120,000," Craig Collins, trader in Bank of Montreal said.
Rabobank said a number below 136,000 could see U.S. Treasury 10-year yields break through a six-month low of 2.94 percent, while supporting Bunds to the detriment of the periphery.
Against this backdrop, Treasuries outperformed German Bunds even as ratings agency Moody's warned on Thursday it would consider cutting the United States' top-notch credit rating.
Fri Jun 3, 2011 5:38am EDT
* Euro zone officials appear closer to Greek bailout
* Soft U.S. jobs data seen limiting downside for Bunds
* U.S. Treasuries outperform Bunds despite Moody's comments
By Ana Nicolaci da Costa
LONDON, June 3 (Reuters) - German bonds fell on Friday as euro zone officials appeared to be inching closer to a second bailout for Greece but losses should be limited with data expected to show some weakness in the U.S. labour market.
Senior euro zone officials meeting in Vienna agreed in principle to a new three-year programme for Greece to run until mid-2014, a source close to the talks said on Thursday. <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Reuters Breakingviews "Vienna Initiative" calculator
r.reuters.com/jeh89r ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
Greece, for its part, was set to impose deeper austerity on its economy and to promise to speed up a privatisation drive.
Prime Minister George Papandreou will meet the chairman of euro zone finance ministers on Friday and Greece is hoping that if it shows willingness to impose austerity it will secure a new international bailout and avoid a debt default.
Optimism over the aid plan pushed the June Bund future FGBLM1 32 ticks lower to 125.40.
Benchmark bonds have benefited in recent weeks from concerns about Greece's debt crisis and potential contagion effects to other heavily indebted euro zone states.
"Greece is the main catalyst here. People have been discounting a lot of negative news on the economic side and at the moment people are focusing more on the market-friendly news that seems to come out of Greece," Gianluca Salford, European fixed income strategist at JP Morgan said.
"I think they have a plan in their head that is reasonable for kicking the can down the road another three months."
The prospect of a further bailout plan also eased the pressure on lower-rated euro zone bonds although their yields remained at elevated levels, showing concerns over a long-term solution for the euro zone debt crisis remained.
Two-year Greek bond prices GR2YT=TWEB rose, pushing yields 115 basis points lower to 24.185 percent. Equivalent Portuguese yields PT2YT=TWEB shed 32 basis points to 11.45 percent.
The next challenge for peripheral bonds will be a snap Portuguese general election on Sunday, with the next government poised to enact tough austerity under a 78-billion-euro bailout. [ID:nLDE7501DS].
"The key to this election is arguably the share of the vote enjoyed by the winner rather than who the actual winner is," Rabobank said in a note. "More important will be the next government's ability to push through these reforms and this will depend upon the size of its majority."
SOFT PATCH, HARD TIMES
Concerns over the global economy could continue to provide the bond market with underlying support after recent U.S. and euro zone data and a recession in Japan raised doubts over the sustainability of a recovery.
The market was already priced for a lower U.S. jobs figure later this session but a surprise to the downside could see bonds scale back losses.
U.S. employment probably lost steam in May, with the economy expected to have created 150,000 jobs last month, according to a Reuters survey, after advancing by an 11-month-high of 244,000 jobs in April. [ID:nN02277124].
A weak figure could also fuel speculation the Federal Reserve may resort to more quantitative easing after it concludes its $600 billion bond-buying programme this month although such plans could face stern opposition.
"People are looking for a low number, probably they are looking for 140,000, maybe 120,000," Craig Collins, trader in Bank of Montreal said.
Rabobank said a number below 136,000 could see U.S. Treasury 10-year yields break through a six-month low of 2.94 percent, while supporting Bunds to the detriment of the periphery.
Against this backdrop, Treasuries outperformed German Bunds even as ratings agency Moody's warned on Thursday it would consider cutting the United States' top-notch credit rating.
Baro
Umile contadino
Grecia: dal punto di vista fiscale ristrutturazione e' un'utopia
Dichiarazioni del professore austriaco mandato dalla BCE in Grecia
Dichiarazioni del professore austriaco mandato dalla BCE in Grecia
tommy271
Forumer storico
Ciao Karl ci terrei a sapere una tua opinione visto che stai tenendo con grande sangue freddo una esposizione piuttosto "corposa" in TdS Greci.
Questa mattina è uscita fuori l'indiscrezione, non ufficiale e non confermata, che lo swap volontario che potrebbero proporre sarebbe con titoli a 10-15 anni.
E questo mi sembrava logico, visto che posticipare solo di 2-3-5 anni come risultava dalle prime ipotesi non si capisce di che sollievo sarebbe stato (e purtroppo l'impressione è che ad ogni nuova indiscrezione è come se si rilanciassero le pretese sugli obbligazionisti privati, per cui siamo passati dall'evitare qualsivoglia riprofilatura, allo swap volontario per titoli procrastinati di pochi anni, a titoli procrastinati di 10-15 anni...).
Inoltre forse mantenere gli stessi oneri relativi agli interessi, allungati per altri 10-15 anni ridurrebbe il sollievo di questa manovra, per cui non mi stupirebbe che alla fine si proponga direttamente uno swap con titoli con maturity allungata di 10-15 anni e anche cedola più bassa, ma magari garantiti dalla zona Euro.
Conseguentemente ciò che perdono in termini di maturity e cedola potrebbero acquistarlo come abbattimento dello spread sul bund, venendo di fatto assimilati a questo o ai titoli EFSF. E l'NPV in un certo senso verrebbe preservato.
Quindi si sostituirebbero titoli molto più "costosi" perchè insicuri, con titoli molto più economici come oneri, perchè tripla A.
Il nominale resta preservato, come collaterale magari verranno accettati dalla BCE senza coefficiente di sconto come gli attuali titoli Greci, quindi questa manovra restituirebbe sicurezza e liquidità al sistema bancario, col solo costo di un ritorno cedolare quasi sicuramente più basso.
Posso anche credere che alle banche possa attrarre questa prospettiva, e possano essere incentivate ad accettare ben volentieri, soprattutto se si sentono "incastrate" nei GGB, come risultava da questo articolo linkato qualche post fa....
(Reuters) - Banche Ue esposte per 100 mld di euro vs Grecia
Vengo alla domanda....
E se una volta disincastrate le "loro banche", le più esposte sono le Francesi e Tedesce, alla prossima eventuale crisi di liquidità la Troika lasciasse avvenire un default, rovinoso in termini di recovery, che andrebbe solo a colpire, a questo punto, il retail che ha fatto hold out e ha titoli non garantiti?
Nel claim a questo punto verrebbero prima IMF, sicuramente UE per le nuove tranches e i titoli swappati delle banche.
So che sembra assurdo, tutti questi sforzi per evitare un credit event, come a difendere un punto d'onore (per le ovvie conseguenze di contagio sui mercati e i piigs, non per altro) per poi permettere un default rovinoso per gli altri privati?
Però un domani potrebbero dire che l'occasione di scambio era stata data.
E poi magari il vero interesse non è tanto non scatenare il credit event (adesso si perchè i mercati sono particolarmente fragili) ma soprattutto salvare senza dover ricapitalizzare le "loro" banche.
Inoltre ritenete che per regola lo swap vada comunque proposto formalmente a tutti i privati o pensate che avvenga in modo tecnico solo "a mezzo circolare", con i soli istituti di credito ?
Sono gradite impressioni da tutti, ma ci terrei ad avere in particolare l'opinione che si è fatto "steel ball"Kark.
Sperando che legga qui altrimenti mi tocca andarlo a cercare di la
Ipotesi non del tutto "luciferina".
Ma a quel punto vale la pena scatenare un default rispetto al solo retail rimasto?
Non saprei se il gioco vale la candela, con tutti i problemi conseguenti per piazzare poi il debito sui mercati finanziari.
Baro
Umile contadino
Moody's avverte: Usa potrebbero perdere la tripla A (e presto)
Scusate l'OT ma visto che si parla di agenzie di rating....
Scusate l'OT ma visto che si parla di agenzie di rating....
ficodindia
Forumer storico
"In the long run we are all dead" (J.M. Keynes).
- Stato
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