PASTELLETTO
Guest
Non ho capito non dovrebbe essere il contrario visto che 2012 ha tenuto?
Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (3 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
Non ho capito non dovrebbe essere il contrario visto che 2012 ha tenuto?
tommy271
Forumer storico
Cerchiamo di fare un po' d'ordine, perché se il discorso che fai in merito al rollaggio del debito è accettabile in linea generale, esso NON VALE PER LA GRECIA.
La Grecia ha rendimenti a 2 anni al 34% (trentaquattro per cento...) lordo, il che vuol dire che essa NON HA ACCESSO AI MERCATI FINANZIARI.
Queste cose chi legge il 3D le conosce benissimo, ma se qualche neofita passasse da queste parti è bene che siano ribadite, altrimenti siamo alla falsificazione dei fatti, che è meglio praticare su altri forum, non qui.
Il biennale greco al 7% NON LO COMPREBBE NESSUNO, in quanto i bond greci a scadenza 2013 rendono il 34%.
Allora, chi scrive che un bond greco al 7% andrebbe a ruba o non capisce niente di obbligazioni, oppure, il che è anche peggio, capisce perfettamente ma dà per assunto che chi lo legge sia uno stupido.
Circa il discorso dei bond greci a 6 mesi, è già stato chiarito da tempo come si tratti di un cd. Ponzi scheme (l'italianissima catena di Sant'Antonio), perché questi bond sono acquitati all'83% da banche greche (ed al 17%, secondo me, da banche estere controllate da banche greche) le quali prendono questi titoli e li portano a scontare dalla BCE ricevendone cash.
E' dunque un meccanismo tutto fuffaldino, che nulla dice nè sui rendimenti che paga la Grecia, né men che meno sulla sua capacità di accedere ai mercati per rifinanziarsi.
Credo che il tuo ragionamento finale sia uguale a quello per cui qualcuno sosteneva che Obama DOVEVA salvare GM continuando a garantire agli obbligazionisti il pagamento delle cedole e del rimborso del capitale, pena la scomparsa dell'industria automobilistica americana.
Si è visto infatti come è andata a finire: Obama ha fatto un regalino ai bondholders, assicurandogli di recuperare qualcosa (altrimenti, in condizioni normali, il recovery sarebbe stato zero), GM é defaultata e gli obbligazionisti che dovevano vivere di rendita ai Caraibi con le ricche cedole se lo sono preso in quel posto...
Discorso ragionevole, però tra il primario a sei mesi al 4,5% circa (ovviamente su base annua) e il secondario anche a 6 o 12 mesi i rendimenti offerti sono molto diversi pur godendo delle stesse garanzie.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Greek apartment prices fall 4.5 pct y/y in Q2- cenbank
ATHENS | Wed Aug 24, 2011 4:18am EDT
ATHENS Aug 24 (Reuters) - Greek residential apartment prices fell 4.5 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2011, driven lower by an economy deep in recession, the central bank said on Wednesday.
Downward price pressures continued after a 5.2 percent drop in the real estate price index in the first three months of the year. For the whole of 2010, apartment prices fell 4.7 percent following a 3.7 drop in 2009.
Although property accounts for a quarter of total investment in Greece and 82 percent of household wealth, there had been no widely accepted benchmark for systematically monitoring real estate prices until the Bank of Greece (BOGr.AT) launched its index in 2009.
The latest data showed older apartments, defined as those more than five years old, suffered more pronounced price pressures. Prices dropped 5.5 percent in the second quarter after a 5.0 percent fall in 2010. Prices of newly built flats fell 3.0 percent, the bank said.
The price drop was steeper in Athens, down 6.7 percent, compared to Thessaloniki, the country's second-largest city, where the fall was 4.7 percent in the second quarter.
Hit by a severe debt crisis, Greece's economy has been in recession since 2009, with economic activity seen contracting by more than 4.5 percent this year, more than earlier government forecasts.
The Bank of Greece said residential property transactions declined 39.1 percent year-on-year in the second quarter to 11.386.
Greece has one of the highest home ownership rates in western Europe -- 80.1 percent versus 70.4 percent in the European Union as a whole -- according to European Mortgage Federation data.
A steady uptrend in Greek residential property prices, fuelled by cheap credit after the country joined the euro zone in 2001, slowed to 1.7 percent in 2008 from 4.6 percent in 2007, 12.6 percent in 2006 and 10.9 percent in 2005.
Based on EU Commission statistics, construction accounted for 10.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in Greece in 2008 and for about 8.7 percent of total employment.
The Bank of Greece provided the following data: **************************************************************
GREEK APARTMENT PRICE INDICES
2008 2009 2010 Q2 2011 Index 101.7 97.9 93.3 89.9 Change (%) 1.7 -3.7 -4.7 -4.5 New (up to 5 years) 102.3 100.2 96.0 93.3 Change (%) 2.3 -2.0 -4.2 -3.0 Old (older than 5 years) 101.3 96.5 91.7 87.8 Change (%) 1.3 -4.8 -5.0 -5.5
ATHENS | Wed Aug 24, 2011 4:18am EDT
ATHENS Aug 24 (Reuters) - Greek residential apartment prices fell 4.5 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2011, driven lower by an economy deep in recession, the central bank said on Wednesday.
Downward price pressures continued after a 5.2 percent drop in the real estate price index in the first three months of the year. For the whole of 2010, apartment prices fell 4.7 percent following a 3.7 drop in 2009.
Although property accounts for a quarter of total investment in Greece and 82 percent of household wealth, there had been no widely accepted benchmark for systematically monitoring real estate prices until the Bank of Greece (BOGr.AT) launched its index in 2009.
The latest data showed older apartments, defined as those more than five years old, suffered more pronounced price pressures. Prices dropped 5.5 percent in the second quarter after a 5.0 percent fall in 2010. Prices of newly built flats fell 3.0 percent, the bank said.
The price drop was steeper in Athens, down 6.7 percent, compared to Thessaloniki, the country's second-largest city, where the fall was 4.7 percent in the second quarter.
Hit by a severe debt crisis, Greece's economy has been in recession since 2009, with economic activity seen contracting by more than 4.5 percent this year, more than earlier government forecasts.
The Bank of Greece said residential property transactions declined 39.1 percent year-on-year in the second quarter to 11.386.
Greece has one of the highest home ownership rates in western Europe -- 80.1 percent versus 70.4 percent in the European Union as a whole -- according to European Mortgage Federation data.
A steady uptrend in Greek residential property prices, fuelled by cheap credit after the country joined the euro zone in 2001, slowed to 1.7 percent in 2008 from 4.6 percent in 2007, 12.6 percent in 2006 and 10.9 percent in 2005.
Based on EU Commission statistics, construction accounted for 10.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in Greece in 2008 and for about 8.7 percent of total employment.
The Bank of Greece provided the following data: **************************************************************
GREEK APARTMENT PRICE INDICES
2008 2009 2010 Q2 2011 Index 101.7 97.9 93.3 89.9 Change (%) 1.7 -3.7 -4.7 -4.5 New (up to 5 years) 102.3 100.2 96.0 93.3 Change (%) 2.3 -2.0 -4.2 -3.0 Old (older than 5 years) 101.3 96.5 91.7 87.8 Change (%) 1.3 -4.8 -5.0 -5.5
tommy271
Forumer storico
Why IMF Intervened In “Collaterals” Issue
With a recent announcement, the International Monetary Fund has expressed concern about the agreement between Greece and Finland on the collateral for the participation of the latter in the new bailout loan.
IMF’s concern reflects a new dynamic of the problem, as the Fund is a key factor for the implementation of the EU Summit decisions on July 21.
So far, all payments of the first loan include the term that the IMF is the first to be repaid if the country defaults.
The controversial agreement between the Greek Finance Ministry and Finland technically puts into question this condition as the agreement secures Finland before anyone else.
In fact, this agreement disputes the principles of the July 21 agreement, therefore Germany’s reaction is intense.
It remains unknown whether and how the new obstacle will be overcome. On Tuesday, French and German FinMins Baroine and Schaeuble discussed the issue at a meeting in Paris, although it was not officially included in the agenda, while Brussels sources note that there is no “technical” solution to the problem yet.
There is no room for additional collaterals, as besides the issue of equity among the EU members, IMF’s position in the agreement is a major problem, as several board members –particularly Asian representatives- of the IMF have reacted strongly.
(capital.gr)
With a recent announcement, the International Monetary Fund has expressed concern about the agreement between Greece and Finland on the collateral for the participation of the latter in the new bailout loan.
IMF’s concern reflects a new dynamic of the problem, as the Fund is a key factor for the implementation of the EU Summit decisions on July 21.
So far, all payments of the first loan include the term that the IMF is the first to be repaid if the country defaults.
The controversial agreement between the Greek Finance Ministry and Finland technically puts into question this condition as the agreement secures Finland before anyone else.
In fact, this agreement disputes the principles of the July 21 agreement, therefore Germany’s reaction is intense.
It remains unknown whether and how the new obstacle will be overcome. On Tuesday, French and German FinMins Baroine and Schaeuble discussed the issue at a meeting in Paris, although it was not officially included in the agenda, while Brussels sources note that there is no “technical” solution to the problem yet.
There is no room for additional collaterals, as besides the issue of equity among the EU members, IMF’s position in the agreement is a major problem, as several board members –particularly Asian representatives- of the IMF have reacted strongly.
(capital.gr)
tommy271
Forumer storico
Troika Warns Greece On Public Payroll And Public Mergers
The exception of tax officers from the new public payroll and the delays in public reforms caused the first warnings by the low-ranking troika officials to the Greek government during the preliminary assessment of the country’s fiscal plan.
According to sources, troika officials, who have been scanning the Treasury and the Finance Ministry since Tuesday, appear much milder compared with the review in June. However, they could not get over the “special arrangement” for tax officers, as Deputy Minister Pantelis Economou promised that any benefit losses would be covered by salary increases within 7 years.
The auditors noted that this circumvention could lead to similar demands from other working sectors.
They also expressed dissatisfaction for huge delays in shutdowns and mergers of public organizations. This measure was considered a key term in the Memorandum of Understanding signed in May 2010, but only recently a procedure has been launched for the merger of about 60 organizations.
Audit for deviations in revenue and expenditure was less strict this time for two reasons. Based on the new medium-term objectives, the differences are minor, while the additional measures of €6.7 billion would apply by the end of the year.
Regarding changes in the public sector, the Greek government seeks convincing answers to the senior officials of the troika, arriving next week in Athens.
In this context, FinMin Evangelos Venizelos is meeting with the Minister of Interior Dimitris Reppas to discuss the issue of new single payroll and acceleration of mergers of public organizations. But, most importantly, the two ministers will discuss the issue of job dismissals.
(capital.gr)
***
Anche secondo altre fonti non dovrebbero esserci problemi al rilascio della tranche di settembre.
The exception of tax officers from the new public payroll and the delays in public reforms caused the first warnings by the low-ranking troika officials to the Greek government during the preliminary assessment of the country’s fiscal plan.
According to sources, troika officials, who have been scanning the Treasury and the Finance Ministry since Tuesday, appear much milder compared with the review in June. However, they could not get over the “special arrangement” for tax officers, as Deputy Minister Pantelis Economou promised that any benefit losses would be covered by salary increases within 7 years.
The auditors noted that this circumvention could lead to similar demands from other working sectors.
They also expressed dissatisfaction for huge delays in shutdowns and mergers of public organizations. This measure was considered a key term in the Memorandum of Understanding signed in May 2010, but only recently a procedure has been launched for the merger of about 60 organizations.
Audit for deviations in revenue and expenditure was less strict this time for two reasons. Based on the new medium-term objectives, the differences are minor, while the additional measures of €6.7 billion would apply by the end of the year.
Regarding changes in the public sector, the Greek government seeks convincing answers to the senior officials of the troika, arriving next week in Athens.
In this context, FinMin Evangelos Venizelos is meeting with the Minister of Interior Dimitris Reppas to discuss the issue of new single payroll and acceleration of mergers of public organizations. But, most importantly, the two ministers will discuss the issue of job dismissals.
(capital.gr)
***
Anche secondo altre fonti non dovrebbero esserci problemi al rilascio della tranche di settembre.
Imark
Forumer storico
Vuol dire che chi sul mercato desidera scommettere sulla data di un eventuale default, comprando titoli corti sull'assunto che la Grecia non defaulterà prima di una certa data - quello che ad es. Russiabond ed altri qui hanno fatto investendo nella 20 agosto 2011, per intenderci - preferisce comprare a 80/100 e tenersi su di una scadenza poco più che semestrale (un bond che scade a marzo 2012) piuttosto che pagare 62/100 per il bond 4,5% in scadenza al maggio 2013.
Se ci fosse maggiore positività sulle chance per la Grecia di tirare avanti più a lungo senza defaultare, si privilegerebbero scadenze un poco più distanti.
Imark
Forumer storico
Sì, perché l'operazione viene fatta come descritta sopra: le banche che comprano tempo 24 ore ed hanno già mollato i tds presi sul primario alla Bce.
Comprano quei titoli a quel rendimento sulla base di accordi di tipo politico che coinvolgono stati europei, BCE, stato greco e banche greche, ma quel rendimento nulla dice riguardo al merito di credito della Grecia e alla sua capacità di accedere ai mercati...
tommy271
Forumer storico
Ok, fin qui ci siamo.
Ma alla prova dei fatti risulta che lo stesso collaterale può essere comprato ad un prezzo inferiore.
Quindi converrai anche tu che, oltre all'aspetto propriamente mercatista, forse più importante risulta essere il quadro politico che sostiene la Grecia.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Greek Stocks Move Above 900 Units
With sign changes and low turnover on the board of ASE, the General Index struggles to stay above 900 units.
In this weak trading environment, Greek banks react positively with profits of up to 2.57%, with National Bank recording early gains of 3.72% at €3.35.
Marfin Popular Banks tops FTSE20 with profits of 7.14%, while Bank of Cyprus and Piraeus Bank gain 1.79% and 1.64% at €1.14 and €0.62 respectively. On the other hand, OPAP, PPC and OTE decline by 1.7%-2.25%.
Pegasus Securities expects a positive beginning with fluctuations and volatility being the main elements of the day while the banking sector would remain in the spotlight.
The uncertainty regarding the implementation of the EU decisions at the last Summit creates concerns to the investing community leading the market to lower levels, notes the firm, adding that the pressures on major banks are the main cause of weak trading, despite a solid rally on international markets yesterday.
On the board, the General Index rises by 0.31% at 913.93 units. The turnover stands at €13.13 million, while a total amount of 50 shares rise, 30 decline and 33 remain unchanged. Banks are currently at 600.67 units with profits of 1.86%.
(capital.gr)
***
Anche oggi andamento negativo sugli spread. Mattinata in fase di allargamento: attualmente a 1564 pb.
Borsa stabile, ma pessima.
With sign changes and low turnover on the board of ASE, the General Index struggles to stay above 900 units.
In this weak trading environment, Greek banks react positively with profits of up to 2.57%, with National Bank recording early gains of 3.72% at €3.35.
Marfin Popular Banks tops FTSE20 with profits of 7.14%, while Bank of Cyprus and Piraeus Bank gain 1.79% and 1.64% at €1.14 and €0.62 respectively. On the other hand, OPAP, PPC and OTE decline by 1.7%-2.25%.
Pegasus Securities expects a positive beginning with fluctuations and volatility being the main elements of the day while the banking sector would remain in the spotlight.
The uncertainty regarding the implementation of the EU decisions at the last Summit creates concerns to the investing community leading the market to lower levels, notes the firm, adding that the pressures on major banks are the main cause of weak trading, despite a solid rally on international markets yesterday.
On the board, the General Index rises by 0.31% at 913.93 units. The turnover stands at €13.13 million, while a total amount of 50 shares rise, 30 decline and 33 remain unchanged. Banks are currently at 600.67 units with profits of 1.86%.
(capital.gr)
***
Anche oggi andamento negativo sugli spread. Mattinata in fase di allargamento: attualmente a 1564 pb.
Borsa stabile, ma pessima.
PASTELLETTO
Guest
Sì, ok allora è come penso io, avevo capito male, da quello che avevi scritto mi sembrava il contrario.
Io maggio 2012 quindi default ad aprile
Non so se è stato già postato:
http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/notizie/2011-08-23/leuropa-apre-eurobond-214430.shtml?uuid=Aag0YVyD
Ultima modifica di un moderatore:
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