Il dispaccio di S&P con cui si dà conferma del rating greco, si rimuove il creditwatch per un downgrade e si passa l'outlook a negativo.
Le ultime misure danno chiaramente l'idea della consistenza della manovra varata dai greci: il PIL greco calerà quest'anno del 4% rispetto all'anno scorso, e la manovra varata vale nel suo complesso, fra nuove entrate e tagli dei costi, circa il 7% del PIL previsto da S&P per il 2010.
Secondo l'agenzia, queste misure sono idonee a riportare il deficit/PIL al valore complessivo dell'8,7% nel 2010, secondo i piani del governo greco approvati dall'UE.
Solo che le prospettive di crescita per la Grecia negli anni a venire, secondo S&P, sono più modeste di quanto stimato dal governo, il che imporrà ulteriori manovre correttive negli anni a venire per riportare il deficit/PIL sotto il 3% nel 2012, anche a causa dei costi elevati di rifinanziamento del debito, che finiscono per difficoltare l'operare dei greci.
Se tuttavia il governo dovesse riuscire nel proprio intento di riforma strutturale, ivi compresi i costi del sistema di social security, e dovesse altresì vedere ridursi i propri costi di rifinanziamento, il trend del debito greco si invertirebbe e ciò potrebbe portare ad una stabilizzazione del rating.
Greece Sovereign Credit Ratings Affirmed At 'BBB+/A-2' And Removed From CreditWatch; Outlook Negative
· We view the Greek government's total package of deficit reduction measures as appropriate to achieve its 2010 fiscal target, given the deterioration in Greece's growth prospects.
· We are affirming our 'BBB+/A-2' sovereign credit ratings on Greece and removing them from CreditWatch negative.
· The negative outlook reflects our view of the government's ability to sustain reform momentum in the medium term.
MADRID (Standard & Poor's) March 16, 2010--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it has affirmed its 'BBB+' long-term and 'A-2' short-term sovereign credit ratings on the Hellenic Republic (Greece). At the same time, the ratings were removed from CreditWatch, where they had been placed with negative implications on Dec 7, 2009 (the long-term rating) and Dec. 16, 2009 (the short-term rating). The outlook, which was stable prior to the CreditWatch placement, is now negative.
On March 5, 2010, the Greek parliament approved its third set of deficit reduction measures to reinforce its budgetary consolidation strategy and meet its deficit target of 8.7% of GDP in 2010. "We view the government's fiscal consolidation program as supportive of the ratings at their current level, hence our rating affirmation," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Marko Mrsnik.
The additional package--which we understand should reduce the deficit by €4.8 billion--includes measures on both the revenue and expenditure side that will bring the total budgetary effort for 2010 to €16 billion (6.9% of 2010 GDP), according to the government's estimates. We view the government's total package of measures as appropriate to achieve its 2010 fiscal target, given the deterioration in the country's growth prospects. According to our revised growth forecast, we expect the recession to continue, with real GDP contracting by 4% this year.
"Despite the new measures, we think it will be difficult for Greece to comply fully with its planned consolidation path, reducing its deficit to 5.6 % of GDP in 2011 and 2.8% of GDP in 2012, if it does not implement additional measures in the coming years," said Mr. Mrsnik. We expect much weaker medium-term growth than official forecasts, and, consequently, an erosion of the tax base, while, in addition, we understand that age-related expenditures are likely to increase by 0.8% of GDP over 2010-2015. Moreover, in our opinion, if the currently high borrowing costs persist, the large and growing debt burden is likely to increase further.
In light of these considerable budgetary challenges and the difficult economic environment, it remains to be seen whether Greece's leaders will demonstrate the political will necessary to achieve fiscal consolidation. We reiterate that our ratings on Greece will continue to depend on its stand-alone credit rating fundamentals. The negative outlook reflects our view of the government's ability to sustain reform momentum over the medium term.
"It indicates further downgrade potential if the government fails to address negative deviations from its budgetary consolidation path or implement the currently planned structural reforms," said Mr. Mrsnik. Either shortcoming would, in our opinion, delay the reversal of the government debt trajectory, and could lead to lower ratings.
An outlook revision to stable would be possible in the event of compliance with the government's budgetary targets, implementation of structural reforms in the social security system, and an easing of borrowing costs. These factors could, in our view, lead to a reversal in Greece's government debt trajectory.