Fra gli spunti della stampa finanziaria internazionale, un articolo di Paul Krugman sul NYT online (che tuttavia parla della nuora Grecia affinche i suoi interlocutori domestici - la suocera USA - intenda) ed un'altro più interessante sul FT sull'atteggiamento guardingo degli investitori USA in vista del roadshow greco per il collocamento del bond in USD previsto sul finire del mese.
Molti gli elementi di interesse nel secondo, incluso quello della rimozione del ban riguardante acquisti di titoli imposto a taluni hedge funds dal governo greco, rimozione suggerita da Goldman Sachs nelle recenti vesti di consulente del governo greco, nonché l'opinione espressa da PIMCO, secondo la quale è improbabile che i greci vengano in USA a vendere la storia del "maxicedolone" quale spunto principale per attrarre i potenziali buyers.
"Visto dove sono gli spread, qualcosa dovrà succedere da qui al roadshow", è il commento. In effetti, sembra anche a me...
US investors cool on Greek debt sale plans
By Jennifer Hughes and Sam Jones in London and Nicole,Bullock in New York
Published: April 9 2010 03:00 | Last updated: April 9 2010 03:00
US investors have questioned whether an appeal to emerging market buyers will help Greece sell its debt overseas.
Yesterday Greek bonds sold off further, leaving yields on two-year bonds up more than two full percentage points this week, at 7.53 per cent. Yields on seven-year bonds were at 7.361 per cent, compared with the 5.9 per cent coupon Greece paid on the €5bn of the notes it sold late last month.
Earlier this week it emerged that Greek officials are planning to travel to the US later this month to meet investors and are considering issuing up to $10bn in dollar-denominated bonds to help cover €10bn ($13.3bn) in debts and interest payments due next month.
However, US observers have questioned Greece's likely success, particularly if it chooses to rebrand itself as an emerging market.
"It would not be the wisest strategy," says Michael Krautzberger, who manages global euro funds at BlackRock. "You don't talk about yourself as an emerging market if you are developed one. I think the Greek authorities are very well aware of this and will not go along that path."
Emerging market investors often work to strict mandates which are unlikely to allow much space for Greece, which has been considered a developed country since it joined the eurozone. "If investors had the mandate they will have already been in - or in and out, perhaps," says Gary Kleiman, of Kleiman International, an independent emerging markets consultancy.
"Emerging market investors have a lot of things to consider including Greece's history, the success, or otherwise, of other IMF programmes and new borrowers coming such as Russia, for which they'll have to clear space in their portfolios."
Russia is expected to tap the international bond markets in the coming weeks for the first time since it defaulted in 1998.
Investors have also watched the recent slide in the prices of Greek debt with alarm.
"They might have to be reclassified as 'submerging'" says Dan Fuss, vice-chairman of Loomis Sayles, which operates with broad investment mandates allowing the managers flexibility.
Before any bond deal is launched, watchers have said the market will need to calm considerably before bankers can offer a deal with enough certainty about the price range to give investors confidence.
"Given where the spreads are, something has to happen between now and the roadshow," said Scott Mather, head of global portfolio management at Pimco. "The higher the yield, the more unsustainable the situation is. It is not a situation where just a higher yield will bring in longer term investors. It is the opposite of what they want to see."
Two of the most natural constituencies for risky debt are hedge funds and distressed debt funds. However, Greece has already muddied the waters by excluding hedge funds from bond sales leaving many large funds to turn away altogether.
A chorus of voices - including Goldman Sachs, an adviser to the Greek government - have called upon the Greek finance ministry to consider rescinding its ban.
Several large hedge funds have however been looking for opportunities to buy up Greek government debt - including some of those that held short positions against Greek bonds in late 2009.
Brevan Howard - Europe's largest hedge fund - told clients in February that it was watching the market for chances to buy low in the expectation of a market recovery.
US-based Moore Capital, the $14.6bn hedge fund run by Louis Bacon, is also understood to have a net long position against Greek government debt. The fund lost a small amount of money because of its holdings earlier this year, according to an investor letter.
Reuters - 09/04/2010 11:10:10
