GRECIA: MERKEL, AIUTI SOLO SE STABILITA' EURO E' IN PERICOLO
(AGI) - Berlino, 23 apr. - Le autorita' europee dovranno valutare se la stabilita' dell'euro e' minacciata dal debito della Grecia, prima di approvare gli aiuti. Lo sostiene il cancelliere tedesco, Angela Merkel. "La commissione europea - dice la Merkel - la Bce e il Fmi dovranno determinare se la stabilita' dell'euro nel suo complesso renda necessario fornire un programma di assistanza alla Grecia".
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La Merkel guarda sempre in casa propria ...
Dopo che tutti gli organismi interessati si son detti disponibili a trovare una soluzione ed a erogare aiuti, mi vien da dire che, fino a che non arriverà ai mercati la notizia che i prestiti sono stati effettivamente ricevuti da Atene, la speculazione continuerà a farla da padrone.
Considerata la criticità della situazione, la o le soluzioni da trovare non sembrano da mission impossible, riporto un articolo di inizio settimana in cui si guarda al possibile futuro della Grecia partendo dai problemi di oggi : alto debito, alto deficit e poca competitività, facendo il punto su ciò che più interessa all'IMF (e mi sento di aggiungere a tutta l'UE) : sostanziali riforme strutturali.
Structural reform now
Notis Mitarachi
Deputy chairman, Hellenic Bankers Association - UK
THE GREEK economy’s problems are not affected by the European Union-International Monetary Fund package. The package helps fluidity, which is very important in the short term. But the essence of the problem is the big public debt.
The cost of borrowing is rising, and the 5 percent offered by the EU is higher than predicted when the stability and growth pact was drafted. The EU deal is better than market rates for 1-2 years, but over 5-7 years it is more expensive. Over 10 years it comes to 7.5 percent, compared to 7.0 percent on the market.
The government should benefit from the safety net without triggering it, and try to go to the markets or find alternative funding, like selling off or leasing state assets. There is an estimated 300 billion euros in state property. One-tenth or one-twentieth would cover this year’s funding needs.
The major issues remain the same: high deficit, high total debt and the competitiveness gap. Greece should try to maintain flexibility, and you do that by not tapping the package because then the IMF comes in and imposes hard conditionality. The eurozone statement speaks of a “joint organ to be designed with and co-financed by the IMF”.
The IMF won’t demand new taxes short-term but will demand a lot of structural reforms now - such as pension reform and opening closed-shop professions - rather than talk tomorrow.
The measures themselves are good for Greece, but it’s better for Greece to have its own choice on the mix of measures to stimulate growth, rather than ones that might not suit the Greek economy.
Until now the market has been saying that in the next two years there is a high risk of not being able to refinance. That risk goes away for two years, but you have the continued risk of constantly refinancing 300 billion euros in debt.
The government must ensure growth in 2011-2012 and reduce the deficit with structural reforms. You can’t do it if fiscal measures are constraining. It must be done with bureaucratic reform, the liberalisation of trade and lifting the burdens on investors.
You need to use state assets much better to stimulate growth, including real estate. Elliniko airport could combine a park with mild residential development. You can pass emergency laws to push investments sitting on the books.