Eurozone crisis
 EU must restructure Greek debt now - study
 By Sarah Collins | Wednesday 09 February 2011
 
 
Greece is now insolvent and its debts should be immediately  restructured, a study has claimed. The report, by economists at  financial think tank Bruegel, estimates that holders of Greek sovereign  debt must accept a 30% haircut under a plan to make the country solvent  within 20 years. Any further delays will mean larger haircuts in future  or eventual restructuring of the €80 billion in loans pledged by  eurozone countries to Greece as part of a €110 billion joint bailout  with the International Monetary Fund last May, it warns.
           “Greece has become insolvent and [...] further lending  without a significant enough debt reduction is not a viable strategy,”  it says. “As official creditors - EU partners and the IMF - are  gradually substituting private creditors to Greece, postponing the  restructuring would imply, to keep the debt ratio at sustainable levels,  either a restructuring of official loans, or a significantly higher  eventual haircut on private claims,” the study says.
           
The EU’s leaders agreed last October to impose haircuts on  private holders of new sovereign debt issued after 2013, only where the  country concerned is insolvent. However, they have ruled out forcing  holders of existing debt to share the burden out of fear that the move  would cause a run on other eurozone bonds.
           But Bruegel says that failing a plan for immediate  restructuring, Greece would be forced to maintain an impossibly high  budget surplus - between 8.4% and 14.5% of GDP - from 2015 in order to  bring its mountain of debt to below EU limits within 20 years. 
 Government debt is set to rise to 150% of annual output, or GDP, this  year - around €325 billion - the highest by far in the 27-member bloc  and over twice the EU’s limit. Bruegel estimates that as only €52  billion of that debt is held by eurozone banks, any spillover effects  from restructuring would be “manageable”.
           “Some [banks] would no doubt be in need for  recapitalisation but [...] the impact on the public finances of the  partner euro area countries would remain limited,” the study says.  “Therefore, the fear of domino effect is understandable, but excessive.”  The report recommends that the EU’s leaders, meeting for their next  summit at the end of March, should hand the €440 billion European  Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) - currently tapped only once for  Ireland - the power to negotiate voluntary debt exchanges with  bondholders and buy back bonds purchased by the European Central Bank  since last May under its emergency programme, currently valued at €76.5  billion (mostly consisting of Greek, Irish and Portuguese bonds). 
Under  the deal, interest rates on Greek and Irish loans should be dropped to  3.5% - from their current levels of 5.2% and 5.8% on average - and loan  maturity extended to 30 years, Bruegel says, which would allow Ireland  to bring its debt back below the EU’s 60% of GDP limit by 2034.
           The report is available at              
www.europolitics.info > Search = 287912  
***
Per chi vuol studiare un pò ... 
Pensavo che il link rimandasse allo studio del pensatoio di Bruegel, invece niente.
Queste informazioni sono sempre quelle dell'altro giorno.