Unemployment Rate To Return In Single-Digit Levels In 2025
Athens Chamber of Small and Medium sized Industries (BEA) said that according to data of the first quarter of 2011, 463 new enterprises have opened, while 864 shut down. This follows the announcement of unemployment rate, which exceeded 15% in January 2011, according to the Greek statistical authority.
Meanwhile, government plans to reduce the number of unemployment benefit payees, as the application of wealth criteria regards not only social policy benefits, but also contributory benefits. It is estimated that 7 out of 10 former employees join long0term unemployment, while unemployed aging 45-55 are in a difficult position.
Bank of Greece governor, Giorgos Provopoulos, referred to the major unemployment problem, noting that employment was reduced by 4% in the last quarter of 2010, indicating a loss of 180,000 jobs. The annual average decrease in employment (-2.7%) was smaller than the decline in GDP, leading to the decline of productivity (1.8%).
BoG governor’s forecasts for 2011 are equally bleak as he considers that recession will continue and unemployment will exceed 15%.
Athens Chamber’s data for the period January-March 2011 are indicative.
Enterprise shutdowns in the first quarter of 2010 recorded a rise of 4.6% compared with the first quarter of 2009, while the shutdowns in the first quarter of 2011 reached 16.5% compared with the corresponding period in 2010.
It is noteworthy that there is a decrease in new enterprises in the first quarter of 2010 compared with the first quarter of 2009, while a recovery is recorded in the first quarter of 2011, with an increase of 4.9% in new enterprises.
However, BEA believes that this could be attributed to the entrepreneurship created by unemployment, to selling of enterprises due to retirement and the strengthening of entrepreneurship of youth and foreigners.
Particularly alarming is shutdown of small industries, which had expertise and history in their area, said BEA.
Unemployed increased by 189,663 persons (a 33.4% rate of increase) compared with January 2010 and by 23,149 persons compared with December 2010 (a 3.2% rate of increase), according to ELSTAT.
Scientists sound the alarm, expecting a steady rise of unemployment in the coming months, despite the slight decline expected after April, because of seasonal employment. They estimate that unemployment in Greece would return to single digit levels in 2025, after reaching rates of 17% or even 20%!
Unemployment hits mainly young people, as unemployment among people aging 15-24 reached 37% in January 2011 (30.4% in January 2010), while regarding people aging 25-34, unemployment reached 21.3% (14.6% in January 2010). Unemployment among people aging 35-44 is 12.6% (9.7%).
The unprecedented explosion of unemployment is expected to continue, while the long-term unemployment people are estimated at about 70% of the total unemployment.
(capital.gr)
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