GiveMeLeverage
& I will remove the world
Back to the bad old days? Greek elections, ELA and the ECB
Should a Syriza-led administration come to pass, and negotiations with the rest of the region prove difficult, the ECB is likely to be in the front line of the interaction with Greece
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A key difference between now and the 2012 Greek election is that Greece is now running a sizeable primary budget surplus. This means that, in theory at least, a Greek administration could declare a moratorium on all interest and principal payments relating to its official sector debt, while continuing to service its market sector debt, without being forced into a new deep fiscal adjustment. According to the IMF’s fifth review document in June, Greece is projected to have a primary surplus of €5.9bn in 2015, while facing amortization costs of €7.9bn to non-official creditors, with €8.6bn due to the IMF. Indeed, Syriza has declared an intention to renegotiate its official sector loans while continuing to service market held debt; declaring such a moratorium would be a hardball negotiating position. This may appear to put Syriza in a strong negotiating position versus the rest of the region. But there are two big caveats.
First [..] payments from the rest of the EU accounting for 2% of GDP (€3.8bn in 2015).
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The second caveat [..] the ECB could attempt to restrict the availability of emergency funding to Greek banks in a way that forces the Greek central bank to make a near impossible choice: between honouring its commitments as a member of the ESCB under European Treaties, or having Greek banks able to meet their liabilities on demand.
Analisi interessante.

Secondo voi, non c'è anche un terzo caveat, e cioè il fatto che i bond in mano al settore privato e i fondi dell'official sector (EFSF) sono pari passu?
Finora tale clausola l'ho sempre letta come bondholder (sentendomi tutelato perché non potevano taglieggiarci senza taglieggiare anche l'OS).
Ma il pari passu è una lama a doppio taglio, imho rende illegale anche pagare il private sector e lasciare a secco l'OS...
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