Qualche notizia in Inglese di notevole importanza....
Il sentiment sul dollaro è veramente negativo....
November 5, 2004
Strong Employment Numbers Portend Worsening Economic Imbalances
As crazy as this may sound, not all employment is good employment. Today's labor department release of a larger then expected 337,000 increase in October non-farm payrolls, heralded by Wall Street as evidence of a vibrant U.S. economy, actually confirms the reverse: a dangerously imbalanced economy moving further off kilter.
The over-bloated service sector added another 272,000 jobs, while the beleaguered manufacturing sector lost an additional 5,000. In other words, the wealth producing sector of the economy lost jobs while the wealth consuming sector gained. The last thing the U.S. economy needs is more non-productive service sector jobs, which will only lead to higher trade deficits, as Americans imports more goods that service sector workers do not produce, and larger current account deficits, as greater interest payments become necessary to service growing external debts.
While this reality may have been lost among U.S. investors, who reacted foolishly by buying stocks, it was not the case among currency traders, who despite an initially, almost reflexive action to buy dollars on apparent "good" economic news, quickly re-evaluated the data and sold, sending the buck to a new all time low against the euro, a twelve year low against the Canadian dollar, and the U.S. Dollar Index to a nine year low. However, unlike recent dollar routs, U.S. bond prices plunged as well. In fact, today's tandem move in bonds and the dollar may signal an end of the recent anomaly of the two moving in opposite directions. If so, the days of American consumers exchanging IOUS's for imported goods may finally be coming to an end.
An article in yesterday's New York Times referred to the hypothesized symbiosis that results from Asian producers subsidizing American consumers. This naive view equates American consumers, who get something for nothing, with Asian producers, who get nothing for something. The article also referred to a nameless influential group of "economists" who content that this "symbiotic" relationship can continue indefinitely. Not only are these "economists" wrong on their characterization of the nature of the relationship, but today's action in the currency and bond markets suggests that the hosts in this parasitic relationship may be on the verge of opting out.
Dollar expected to fall amid China's rumoured selling
By Steve Johnson in London and Andrew Balls in Washington
Published: November 7 2004 19:43 | Last updated: November 7 2004 19:43
The dollar could slide still further, in spite of hitting an all-time low against the euro last week in the wake of George W. Bush's re-election, currency traders have said.
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The dollar sell-off has resumed amid fears among traders that Mr Bush's victory will bring four more years of widening US budget and current account deficits, heightened geopolitical risks and a policy of "benign neglect" of the dollar.
Many currency traders were taken aback on Friday when the greenback fell in spite of bullish data showing the US economy created 337,000 jobs in October.
"If this can't cause the dollar to strengthen you have to tell me what will. This is a big green light to sell the dollar," said David Bloom, currency analyst at HSBC, as the greenback fell to a nine-year low in trade-weighted terms.
The dollar's fall comes as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise US interest rates by a quarter point to 2 per cent when it meets on Wednesday and to signal that it will continue with a measured pace of rate increases.
Speculative traders in Chicago last week racked up the highest number of long-euro, short-dollar contracts on record. Options traders have reported brisk business in euro calls - contracts to buy the euro at a pre-determined rate.
However, the market has been rife with rumours that the latest wave of selling has been led by foreign governments seeking to cut their exposure to US assets.
India and Russia have reportedly been selling US assets, as well as petrodollar-rich Middle Eastern investors.
China, which has $515bn of reserves, was also said to be selling dollars and buying Asian currencies in readiness to switch the renminbi's dollar peg to a basket arrangement, something Chinese officials have increasingly hinted at. Any re-allocation could push the dollar sharply lower and Treasury yields markedly higher.
China: output may beat demand
November 08, 2004
MINING companies will be running the slide rule back over their forecasts today after China warned its iron and steel production capacity may exceed demand as soon as 2007.
"Product prices, scale of production and the level of investments are in a bubble stage," China's State Information Centre said. "There may even be an oversupply situation developing."
The prediction could come as a shock for Australia's big resources exporters who have pegged strong growth forecasts on the assumption that China's hunger for iron ore would be insatiable for much longer.
BHP has committed a further $US575 million ($770 million) to expanding its WA iron ore operations by 8 million tonnes from the 110 million tonnes it will shift this year.
Rio Tinto will dig up 116 million tonnes of Pilbara dirt by late 2005 while Hope Downs and Andrew Forrest's Fortescue Metals are among a string of other companies that signed big contracts to supply China.
Iron ore is at record prices and China is pivotal to these producers as it uses more steel than the US and Japan combined.
The Chinese government has been trying to dampen investment in steel mills amid other measures to slow rampant economic growth and avoid a much-talked about "hard landing" for the world's boom economy.
The government will also cut its spending next year, saying as the fiscal adjustments take hold oil consumption growth should slow to 6.7 per cent in 2005 from 20 per cent this year.
