S&P 500 Le news di oggi (2 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione gipa69
- Data di Inizio
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
superbaffone
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gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
grafichetto sperando che gipa non si arrabbi
veloci che stanno incrociando la 62...
Siamo ad un punto chiave, nel giro di due giorni si capirà se il mercato vuole riprendere il trend rialzista o la fase correttiva proseguirà.
Siamo al test di alcune resistenze chiavi anche se lo spartiacque tra rimbalzo e ripresa del trend è l'area 1113/1115.
personalmente sono per una fase più prolungata della correzione ma i modi di sviluppo potrebbero anche prevedere un nuovo test dei massimi per cui bisogna essere open mind..
Allegati
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
HOPES IN THE ASHES
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
2/2/2010 2:12:32 PM Eastern Time
For the last few weeks I've talked about the market being anxious, and it is at the moment. However, the last couple of sessions have proven anxiety works two ways. When the market is drifting it morphs into a fear that the bottom could be falling out or it morphs into fear of missing a rally. In both instances, there isn't much volume, pointing to another truth about anxiety...that it keeps most investors in neutral gear. The good news is that economic data is better this week, so far, than it was last week. Today's session is all about the two most desperate areas of our economy; the housing market and the job market.
Housing
The sector saw strong earnings results from DR Horton (DHI) and a Pending Home Sales reading that put the brakes on the freefall. DR Horton earned $192.0 million versus losing more than $600 million in the year ago period. Part of the profits came from a tax deal, but revenues were up 36%, and new orders soared by 45%. Coupled with a solid gain in Pending Home Sales, where month over month gains in the Northeast, Midwest, and South offset the three consecutive declines in Pending Home Sales in the West (which could be a good thing), the picture improved.
Then there is the jobs market. Yesterday's ISM Manufacturing report showed a healthy gain in manufacturing jobs, and this morning's earnings results from Manpower (MAN) gave hope that Friday's employment results will be the start of something positive and sustainable. The company posted earnings results of $0.37 per share on $4.41 billion in revenue versus consensus of $0.24 per share and revenue of $4.16 billion. In addition to solid earnings, the company made a $430 million acquisition. Management made several upbeat observations and comments including: "evidence of improving trends in nearly all geograp
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
2/2/2010 2:12:32 PM Eastern Time
For the last few weeks I've talked about the market being anxious, and it is at the moment. However, the last couple of sessions have proven anxiety works two ways. When the market is drifting it morphs into a fear that the bottom could be falling out or it morphs into fear of missing a rally. In both instances, there isn't much volume, pointing to another truth about anxiety...that it keeps most investors in neutral gear. The good news is that economic data is better this week, so far, than it was last week. Today's session is all about the two most desperate areas of our economy; the housing market and the job market.
Housing
The sector saw strong earnings results from DR Horton (DHI) and a Pending Home Sales reading that put the brakes on the freefall. DR Horton earned $192.0 million versus losing more than $600 million in the year ago period. Part of the profits came from a tax deal, but revenues were up 36%, and new orders soared by 45%. Coupled with a solid gain in Pending Home Sales, where month over month gains in the Northeast, Midwest, and South offset the three consecutive declines in Pending Home Sales in the West (which could be a good thing), the picture improved.
Then there is the jobs market. Yesterday's ISM Manufacturing report showed a healthy gain in manufacturing jobs, and this morning's earnings results from Manpower (MAN) gave hope that Friday's employment results will be the start of something positive and sustainable. The company posted earnings results of $0.37 per share on $4.41 billion in revenue versus consensus of $0.24 per share and revenue of $4.16 billion. In addition to solid earnings, the company made a $430 million acquisition. Management made several upbeat observations and comments including: "evidence of improving trends in nearly all geograp
quicksilver
Forumer storico
singolare vero? che le previsioni sono costantemente sotto al dato
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
CRUEL PROMISES (FINAL EDITION)
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
2/3/2010 9:38:13 AM Eastern Time
"If you find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck." Clint Smith of Thunder Ranch
I have to say the more I think about the new budget and gargantuan deficit the more I have to shake my head. I saw Monica Crawley yesterday and she said it reminded her of the movie "Gaslight." I consider myself a movie buff but only vaguely heard of the movie, and certainly didn't know the plot, but she was spot on. Apparently, the main character in the movie wanted to get rid of his wife so he drove her crazy by turning on and off the interior lights, which back then were powered by gas. While I admit to being mentally racked by the deluge of ideas that continue to cascade in the form of help from the government, I know the idea is to drive us nuts so I'm not going to seek a good psychiatrist. Instead, I'm going to fight back, but I understand the goal of shaking more and more people off the scent will work. Still, people on the bottom of the totem pole realize that it's not rain falling on their heads.
For these folks, umbrellas are offered in the form of promises. These promises sound great, right?
* "Middle class tax cuts"
* "Consumer protection"
* "Tons of cash for small businesses"
In reality, they amount to nothing but mostly empty promises. Much like the mortgage modification program and the first-time homebuyers program, both of which failed to live up to the hype although the latter has had a greater impact, promises are just that. Really, just think about the stuff offered up for small businesses. The $30.0 billion to go to banks as a conduit for small businesses is a farce. Ironically, the New York Times of all places said as much (great info this week from the Times and US Today, go figure). Small banks that are in good shape don't need money, that's not what's holding them back. According to the Fed, loan officers say 35% of domestic banks are experiencing weaker demand for loans from small companies. Okay that leaves 65% that presumably must be getting the same amount or larger. The plan from the White House says banks with assets under $1.0 billion will get 5% risk-related capital by upping their small business lending.
Last Friday six banks bit the bullet of which five had assets of $1.0 billion or less. I suspect there will be many of these kinds of banks that will get taxpayer money. I have a hard time believing they will up the ante in any significant manner. So, let me get this straight, we are going to push shaky banks to make shaky loans? After all, isn't that what we are talking about? I think small business are the heart of the nation's economic engine and need access to capital, but if they face the kind of hurdles that go with the SBA then this program is dead on arrival. On the other hand, if big banks are told proprietary trading is too risky then it's going to be hard to justify the leap of faith small banks are going to have to take to make loans. I actually think Wall Street firms understand trading (isn't that how they got the money back so fast to pay off TARP commitments?), and I think small businesses understand their communities. Yet, it's tough to ban one and allow the other to delve into an area of expertise. I think most of these banks are going to bank the money and ride the uncertainty out.
Those community banks that don't need the cash may take it and make some loans, but how is giving a flush bank of any size smart or fair policy?
So far none of the programs worked as advertised from Stimulus, to TARP, to HAMP and others. The grand promises seemed disingenuous at first, but outright cruel right now. By the way, it is illegal to take TARP money and give it to community banks.
Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Geithner provided written testimony for the Senate Committee on Finance. He discussed (or sold because these people never talk like rational people but instead like someone with a trench coat lined with knockoff Rolexes) the "Small Business Jobs and Wages Tax Cut" and how $5,000 tax cuts for every new hire in 2010, plus bonuses for wage increases, will be rewarded by the government. He said: "We expect that over one million small businesses that are growing jobs or wages will receive the credit." I don't believe this at all, but maybe businesses could use the same criteria for "saved or created" jobs. It's not just because I live in New Jersey that I know Geithner has no street sense but when he says there are "no games or accounting tricks" any business could perform it seems weird. Can you say Tony Soprano? There will be an avalanche of fraud, waste, and abuse. It really is unfair to make such promises when small businesses really need help.
Another cruel joke is the American Opportunity Tax Credit, which provides a tax incentive of up to $2,500 a year toward college costs. I can only imagine a handful of kids that can get this money and it happens to get them over the finish line. Just in the last year, tuition at in-state schools increased 6.5%, and 4.4% at private schools. The Administration is offering $10,000 over four years, but it doesn't even make a dent.
FY11 Government Budget and Taxes
The budget is filled with gimmicks like a $5,000 tax credit for small businesses to hire new employees and tax credits for all employers for equipment, including things like solar panels. So-called middle class tax cuts will add up to $330.0 billion, but will be more than offset by $1.4 trillion in increased taxes on so-called rich individuals and (evil) businesses.
These taxes will limit private investment, hurt donations to charities, and make American companies less competitive on the global stage. Not to mention it will create job losses. Hitting Wall Street for the reckless blunders of President Bush, Obama is wrong for, and it will result in higher fees for banking customers. All of this and the deficit will climb to yet another record. The nation will have to borrow $1.3 trillion to make the budget work. It will cost $800 billion just to cover the nation's debt, which is up 12,000% since 1940 while the population is up 130%. It's nuts to claim to be giving small businesses a tax break on one hand when a large percentage of them will get whacked on the hike on individual rates.
The budget is also built on faulty assumptions like 3% growth in 2010 and 4.3% growth in 2011 and 2012. In addition, the notion inflation will stay at 1% for all of 2010 and beyond is reckless itself.
The Market
I love the action in the market, it tells me capitalism is fighting back and this is something that everyone should keep in mind. Just like taking a loss on a great company's stock because the stock is temporarily down, giving up on the system that made America the greatest nation in the world is not ideal. It's easy to fall into that trap, don't! This isn't a fair fight by any means, capitalism is being dragged down under the cover of dust from the fight between Washington and Wall Street, but make no mistake it's the bystanders that are the real targets.
In the meantime, for those that took insurance in the form of the SDS, I would suggest holding until Friday or 10,400 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Toyota's Brakes Stick Too: Ford Leads the Way Again
By: David Silver, Research Analyst
The year got off to an interesting start for the auto industry with Toyota (TM), Honda (HMC), and even Ford (F) announcing recalls. The biggest news came from Toyota, which announced that it would stop selling eight of its top brands including the Camry, Corolla, and Tundra in North America as well as stop production following a recall of more than 3 million vehicles. The company has since announced a "fix" for the sticking gas pedal, but the production halt continues. The Company announced that its monthly sales dropped to less than 100,000 for the first time since 1999. The company estimates it lost 20,000 in sales as a result of the recall. Total sales were 98,796. Toyota estimated its market share fell to 14.2%, the lowest since 2006; it had a 17% share of the U.S. market in 2009.
Ford, on the other hand, continues to capitalize on some great momentum and put together another great month. Sales were in line with our expectations, but below some of the other analysts on the Street. Estimates have been steadily rising since the Toyota announcement; however, we felt that instead of seeing these customers switch to Ford or General Motors, it would only just delay those sales. For the most part, that belief came to fruition.
Industry-wide, the strong results were offset by the fact that much of the growth came from fleet sales to rental and commercial operators, which are generally less profitable than retail sales to individual customers. Retail sales were down modestly across the industry. The higher numbers compare with a weak year ago January, when many businesses either cut back on purchases or were unable to get vehicles because some auto plants weren't running or financing was unavailable.
Looking at the monthly data and hearing about the recalls overshadows some other actions that occurred during the month. General Motors put in a solid month, with sales gaining almost 15% compared to a dismal January last year. Compared to December of 2009, incentives were about the same, and we expect to see incentives tick higher as Toyota is forced to offer incentives to get some customers back. Other automakers will follow. Also not lost on us is the fact that Chrysler saw an 8.1% sales decline during the month to the lowest monthly figure in almost a decade. Honda, which one would think would directly benefit from the problems at Toyota, also saw a difficult month. So despite the positives from the month, there were plenty of negatives that will affect more than just this month's figures. Ford reported its first annual profit since 2005, but a good portion of its sales during the month were fleet sales which are far less profitable. If the growth in the industry is going to be fueled by fleet sales than perhaps Mr. Mulally is getting a little ahead of himself by expecting another annual profit during 2010.
Ford is still my favorite in the industry, as it has the most room for growth. Toyota is still a behemoth in the industry, but when you are on top, it gets harder and harder to surprise and plus, the chink in the company's armor can't simply be buffed out. It will take a few months (maybe even years) to overcome this problem. Sales are likely to suffer in February and perhaps into March (hurting the fourth quarter of the company's fiscal year), but consumers would have moved on by then.
Economic Data
ADP Employment
Private employment, according to payroll service firm ADP, clocked in at a decline of 22,000 for the month of January. The result beat consensus forecasts calling for a 30,000 drop. There were a few estimates out there looking at a gain for this report, so it's understandable to reason the result is somewhat of a disappointment. However, when all is said and done, it appears that job creation is on the verge of happening (tepid job growth), considering of course the government employment component of the monthly jobs reports.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas
The picture emerging from this data set is slightly more mixed. According to the research outfit, planned firings numbered 71,482 in January, up from a two year low of 45,094 in December. At least preliminarily, the data implies firings may pick back up as companies wrap up the inventory re-stocking phase that is supporting the economic recovery.
Is this Horse Tired?
By: Brian Sozzi, Research Analyst
Expectations on Polo Ralph Lauren's (RL) holiday quarter were running high pre-release (I was highest estimate in Thomson Reuters at $1.26 P/S), as retailers (in this case department stores and specialty) reported stronger than anticipated results as the consumer returned to an open mind on discretionary spend, tepidly. I was cautious, and hence did not recommend on any of our services, believing that this amplified set of expectations, coupled with investments being made to support international growth, could create a letdown on FY10 guidance that pressured the stock. In many respects, this is exactly what transpired; Polo outlined a dilution estimate range ($0.08-$0.10 P/S) for 4Q09 stemming from China investments that will somewhat suppress consensus forecasts when analysts return to the drawing board (myself included). The guidance generally overshadows what appears to be a solid holiday quarter; same-store sales growth returned to each sub-brand of the Retail segment and gross margin increased 470 bps y/y (58.20% versus 55.90% consensus). Undoubtedly, the improvement reflects the depressed base of results reported a year ago, when consumers effectively refrained from purchasing merchandise that were non-essentials.
That being said, I believe there were other interesting tidbits worth acknowledging pre-conference call. Wholesale segment operating margins declined y/y and sequentially, and Licensing segment operating margins continue to erode. With the stock trading on a premium valuation to our retail sector coverage average, if the company does not suggest business trends post holiday are strong, which would somewhat counter the interesting trends we outlined from 3Q10 and soft guidance, a downgrade in my rating and price target revision could be in order.
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
2/3/2010 9:38:13 AM Eastern Time
"If you find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck." Clint Smith of Thunder Ranch
I have to say the more I think about the new budget and gargantuan deficit the more I have to shake my head. I saw Monica Crawley yesterday and she said it reminded her of the movie "Gaslight." I consider myself a movie buff but only vaguely heard of the movie, and certainly didn't know the plot, but she was spot on. Apparently, the main character in the movie wanted to get rid of his wife so he drove her crazy by turning on and off the interior lights, which back then were powered by gas. While I admit to being mentally racked by the deluge of ideas that continue to cascade in the form of help from the government, I know the idea is to drive us nuts so I'm not going to seek a good psychiatrist. Instead, I'm going to fight back, but I understand the goal of shaking more and more people off the scent will work. Still, people on the bottom of the totem pole realize that it's not rain falling on their heads.
For these folks, umbrellas are offered in the form of promises. These promises sound great, right?
* "Middle class tax cuts"
* "Consumer protection"
* "Tons of cash for small businesses"
In reality, they amount to nothing but mostly empty promises. Much like the mortgage modification program and the first-time homebuyers program, both of which failed to live up to the hype although the latter has had a greater impact, promises are just that. Really, just think about the stuff offered up for small businesses. The $30.0 billion to go to banks as a conduit for small businesses is a farce. Ironically, the New York Times of all places said as much (great info this week from the Times and US Today, go figure). Small banks that are in good shape don't need money, that's not what's holding them back. According to the Fed, loan officers say 35% of domestic banks are experiencing weaker demand for loans from small companies. Okay that leaves 65% that presumably must be getting the same amount or larger. The plan from the White House says banks with assets under $1.0 billion will get 5% risk-related capital by upping their small business lending.
Last Friday six banks bit the bullet of which five had assets of $1.0 billion or less. I suspect there will be many of these kinds of banks that will get taxpayer money. I have a hard time believing they will up the ante in any significant manner. So, let me get this straight, we are going to push shaky banks to make shaky loans? After all, isn't that what we are talking about? I think small business are the heart of the nation's economic engine and need access to capital, but if they face the kind of hurdles that go with the SBA then this program is dead on arrival. On the other hand, if big banks are told proprietary trading is too risky then it's going to be hard to justify the leap of faith small banks are going to have to take to make loans. I actually think Wall Street firms understand trading (isn't that how they got the money back so fast to pay off TARP commitments?), and I think small businesses understand their communities. Yet, it's tough to ban one and allow the other to delve into an area of expertise. I think most of these banks are going to bank the money and ride the uncertainty out.
Those community banks that don't need the cash may take it and make some loans, but how is giving a flush bank of any size smart or fair policy?
So far none of the programs worked as advertised from Stimulus, to TARP, to HAMP and others. The grand promises seemed disingenuous at first, but outright cruel right now. By the way, it is illegal to take TARP money and give it to community banks.
Another cruel joke is the American Opportunity Tax Credit, which provides a tax incentive of up to $2,500 a year toward college costs. I can only imagine a handful of kids that can get this money and it happens to get them over the finish line. Just in the last year, tuition at in-state schools increased 6.5%, and 4.4% at private schools. The Administration is offering $10,000 over four years, but it doesn't even make a dent.
The budget is filled with gimmicks like a $5,000 tax credit for small businesses to hire new employees and tax credits for all employers for equipment, including things like solar panels. So-called middle class tax cuts will add up to $330.0 billion, but will be more than offset by $1.4 trillion in increased taxes on so-called rich individuals and (evil) businesses.
These taxes will limit private investment, hurt donations to charities, and make American companies less competitive on the global stage. Not to mention it will create job losses. Hitting Wall Street for the reckless blunders of President Bush, Obama is wrong for, and it will result in higher fees for banking customers. All of this and the deficit will climb to yet another record. The nation will have to borrow $1.3 trillion to make the budget work. It will cost $800 billion just to cover the nation's debt, which is up 12,000% since 1940 while the population is up 130%. It's nuts to claim to be giving small businesses a tax break on one hand when a large percentage of them will get whacked on the hike on individual rates.
The budget is also built on faulty assumptions like 3% growth in 2010 and 4.3% growth in 2011 and 2012. In addition, the notion inflation will stay at 1% for all of 2010 and beyond is reckless itself.
I love the action in the market, it tells me capitalism is fighting back and this is something that everyone should keep in mind. Just like taking a loss on a great company's stock because the stock is temporarily down, giving up on the system that made America the greatest nation in the world is not ideal. It's easy to fall into that trap, don't! This isn't a fair fight by any means, capitalism is being dragged down under the cover of dust from the fight between Washington and Wall Street, but make no mistake it's the bystanders that are the real targets.
In the meantime, for those that took insurance in the form of the SDS, I would suggest holding until Friday or 10,400 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Toyota's Brakes Stick Too: Ford Leads the Way Again
By: David Silver, Research Analyst
The year got off to an interesting start for the auto industry with Toyota (TM), Honda (HMC), and even Ford (F) announcing recalls. The biggest news came from Toyota, which announced that it would stop selling eight of its top brands including the Camry, Corolla, and Tundra in North America as well as stop production following a recall of more than 3 million vehicles. The company has since announced a "fix" for the sticking gas pedal, but the production halt continues. The Company announced that its monthly sales dropped to less than 100,000 for the first time since 1999. The company estimates it lost 20,000 in sales as a result of the recall. Total sales were 98,796. Toyota estimated its market share fell to 14.2%, the lowest since 2006; it had a 17% share of the U.S. market in 2009.
Ford, on the other hand, continues to capitalize on some great momentum and put together another great month. Sales were in line with our expectations, but below some of the other analysts on the Street. Estimates have been steadily rising since the Toyota announcement; however, we felt that instead of seeing these customers switch to Ford or General Motors, it would only just delay those sales. For the most part, that belief came to fruition.
Industry-wide, the strong results were offset by the fact that much of the growth came from fleet sales to rental and commercial operators, which are generally less profitable than retail sales to individual customers. Retail sales were down modestly across the industry. The higher numbers compare with a weak year ago January, when many businesses either cut back on purchases or were unable to get vehicles because some auto plants weren't running or financing was unavailable.
Ford is still my favorite in the industry, as it has the most room for growth. Toyota is still a behemoth in the industry, but when you are on top, it gets harder and harder to surprise and plus, the chink in the company's armor can't simply be buffed out. It will take a few months (maybe even years) to overcome this problem. Sales are likely to suffer in February and perhaps into March (hurting the fourth quarter of the company's fiscal year), but consumers would have moved on by then.
Economic Data
ADP Employment
Private employment, according to payroll service firm ADP, clocked in at a decline of 22,000 for the month of January. The result beat consensus forecasts calling for a 30,000 drop. There were a few estimates out there looking at a gain for this report, so it's understandable to reason the result is somewhat of a disappointment. However, when all is said and done, it appears that job creation is on the verge of happening (tepid job growth), considering of course the government employment component of the monthly jobs reports.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas
The picture emerging from this data set is slightly more mixed. According to the research outfit, planned firings numbered 71,482 in January, up from a two year low of 45,094 in December. At least preliminarily, the data implies firings may pick back up as companies wrap up the inventory re-stocking phase that is supporting the economic recovery.
Is this Horse Tired?
By: Brian Sozzi, Research Analyst
Expectations on Polo Ralph Lauren's (RL) holiday quarter were running high pre-release (I was highest estimate in Thomson Reuters at $1.26 P/S), as retailers (in this case department stores and specialty) reported stronger than anticipated results as the consumer returned to an open mind on discretionary spend, tepidly. I was cautious, and hence did not recommend on any of our services, believing that this amplified set of expectations, coupled with investments being made to support international growth, could create a letdown on FY10 guidance that pressured the stock. In many respects, this is exactly what transpired; Polo outlined a dilution estimate range ($0.08-$0.10 P/S) for 4Q09 stemming from China investments that will somewhat suppress consensus forecasts when analysts return to the drawing board (myself included). The guidance generally overshadows what appears to be a solid holiday quarter; same-store sales growth returned to each sub-brand of the Retail segment and gross margin increased 470 bps y/y (58.20% versus 55.90% consensus). Undoubtedly, the improvement reflects the depressed base of results reported a year ago, when consumers effectively refrained from purchasing merchandise that were non-essentials.
That being said, I believe there were other interesting tidbits worth acknowledging pre-conference call. Wholesale segment operating margins declined y/y and sequentially, and Licensing segment operating margins continue to erode. With the stock trading on a premium valuation to our retail sector coverage average, if the company does not suggest business trends post holiday are strong, which would somewhat counter the interesting trends we outlined from 3Q10 and soft guidance, a downgrade in my rating and price target revision could be in order.
