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Greek Rescue Rumor And Chippier Consumer Brings Stocks Back From Brink – For much of Friday’s session, fears about the European Union (particularly Greece) sent folks seeking the safety of the dollar. That, in turn, put pressure on oil; gold and stocks as carry trades were liquidated. The carnage began in earnest as the European markets closed. The dollar began to move steadily higher causing the above-noted damage.
The dollar driven selling was not as vicious as the selling on Thursday, but around 12:45 things started to turn rather ugly. They got even uglier as they headed to the day’s lows at 2:00. Rumors circulated that a trading firm in the crude pits was being forced to liquidate contracts.
But, shortly after 2:00, bids began to pop up in stocks as the dollar eased back. With some investigation, traders learned that there were rumors, or at least speculation, that the ECB and others might be cobbling together a rescue package for Greece over the weekend.
That late rally was a bit of a mixed blessing. Had they closed on the lows, the probable course of the market might be a touch clearer. A close at the lows would have suggested an “oversold reflex rally” for Monday extending half-way into Tuesday’s session. The rally would then fail followed by a sharp and severe selloff. The late rally took that specificity off the table. We’ll have to review the napkins for clues to the amended course.
The large Treasury auctions will get lots of attention. The government can postpone raising taxes as long as it is able to refund with easy auctions. A failed auction could throw things into disarray. The form chart says things should wind down a bit toward week’s end as Lunar New Year approaches. Thursday’s claims data will get lots of attention.
The latest speculation is about the inverted yield curve for Greek bonds. That doesn’t allow any wiggle room or time to ease into austerity. Therefore “instant austerity” runs the risk of public backlash, strikes and maybe even unrest in the streets. To buy some time, some folks speculate, that the ECB or some entity could guarantee short term Greek debt – maybe up to one year. That might buy some time. It will be interesting to see if that’s the road that is taken.
Cocktail Napkin Charting – As noted above, the late Friday reversal rally was primarily the result of rumors of a Greek rescue package. There were also technical contributors to the bounce. The S&P made its intra-day low at 1044. That’s its 200 day exponential moving average. Both Walter Murphy and Stock Market Cycles had listed 1043 as a probable target (darn good call). Friday’s lows will be a critical testing area.
For today, the napkins suggest early support in the S&P may be around 1048/1052 with the backup 1040/1043. Resistance looks like 1070/1074 and then 1080/1085. We need to be careful because the Friday bounce may have released enough of the oversold to allow the bears another shot.
Spots Spotty Yet Again – Our ham radio pal passed along the latest data on sunspots. The spots did not exactly disappear but activity clearly diminished. The sunspot numbers for January 28th through February 3rd were: 13, 12, 25, 14, 16, 11, 11. Longtime readers will recall that the lowest spot number, other than zero, is 11. That represents a single weak spot. So for six of the seven days, we had a single, lonely spot. Keep that sweater handy.
The dollar driven selling was not as vicious as the selling on Thursday, but around 12:45 things started to turn rather ugly. They got even uglier as they headed to the day’s lows at 2:00. Rumors circulated that a trading firm in the crude pits was being forced to liquidate contracts.
But, shortly after 2:00, bids began to pop up in stocks as the dollar eased back. With some investigation, traders learned that there were rumors, or at least speculation, that the ECB and others might be cobbling together a rescue package for Greece over the weekend.
That late rally was a bit of a mixed blessing. Had they closed on the lows, the probable course of the market might be a touch clearer. A close at the lows would have suggested an “oversold reflex rally” for Monday extending half-way into Tuesday’s session. The rally would then fail followed by a sharp and severe selloff. The late rally took that specificity off the table. We’ll have to review the napkins for clues to the amended course.
The large Treasury auctions will get lots of attention. The government can postpone raising taxes as long as it is able to refund with easy auctions. A failed auction could throw things into disarray. The form chart says things should wind down a bit toward week’s end as Lunar New Year approaches. Thursday’s claims data will get lots of attention.
The latest speculation is about the inverted yield curve for Greek bonds. That doesn’t allow any wiggle room or time to ease into austerity. Therefore “instant austerity” runs the risk of public backlash, strikes and maybe even unrest in the streets. To buy some time, some folks speculate, that the ECB or some entity could guarantee short term Greek debt – maybe up to one year. That might buy some time. It will be interesting to see if that’s the road that is taken.
Cocktail Napkin Charting – As noted above, the late Friday reversal rally was primarily the result of rumors of a Greek rescue package. There were also technical contributors to the bounce. The S&P made its intra-day low at 1044. That’s its 200 day exponential moving average. Both Walter Murphy and Stock Market Cycles had listed 1043 as a probable target (darn good call). Friday’s lows will be a critical testing area.
For today, the napkins suggest early support in the S&P may be around 1048/1052 with the backup 1040/1043. Resistance looks like 1070/1074 and then 1080/1085. We need to be careful because the Friday bounce may have released enough of the oversold to allow the bears another shot.
Spots Spotty Yet Again – Our ham radio pal passed along the latest data on sunspots. The spots did not exactly disappear but activity clearly diminished. The sunspot numbers for January 28th through February 3rd were: 13, 12, 25, 14, 16, 11, 11. Longtime readers will recall that the lowest spot number, other than zero, is 11. That represents a single weak spot. So for six of the seven days, we had a single, lonely spot. Keep that sweater handy.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Greek Rescue Rumor And Chippier Consumer Brings Stocks Back From Brink – For much of Friday’s session, fears about the European Union (particularly Greece) sent folks seeking the safety of the dollar. That, in turn, put pressure on oil; gold and stocks as carry trades were liquidated. The carnage began in earnest as the European markets closed. The dollar began to move steadily higher causing the above-noted damage.
The dollar driven selling was not as vicious as the selling on Thursday, but around 12:45 things started to turn rather ugly. They got even uglier as they headed to the day’s lows at 2:00. Rumors circulated that a trading firm in the crude pits was being forced to liquidate contracts.
But, shortly after 2:00, bids began to pop up in stocks as the dollar eased back. With some investigation, traders learned that there were rumors, or at least speculation, that the ECB and others might be cobbling together a rescue package for Greece over the weekend.
That late rally was a bit of a mixed blessing. Had they closed on the lows, the probable course of the market might be a touch clearer. A close at the lows would have suggested an “oversold reflex rally” for Monday extending half-way into Tuesday’s session. The rally would then fail followed by a sharp and severe selloff. The late rally took that specificity off the table. We’ll have to review the napkins for clues to the amended course.
The large Treasury auctions will get lots of attention. The government can postpone raising taxes as long as it is able to refund with easy auctions. A failed auction could throw things into disarray. The form chart says things should wind down a bit toward week’s end as Lunar New Year approaches. Thursday’s claims data will get lots of attention.
The latest speculation is about the inverted yield curve for Greek bonds. That doesn’t allow any wiggle room or time to ease into austerity. Therefore “instant austerity” runs the risk of public backlash, strikes and maybe even unrest in the streets. To buy some time, some folks speculate, that the ECB or some entity could guarantee short term Greek debt – maybe up to one year. That might buy some time. It will be interesting to see if that’s the road that is taken.
Cocktail Napkin Charting – As noted above, the late Friday reversal rally was primarily the result of rumors of a Greek rescue package. There were also technical contributors to the bounce. The S&P made its intra-day low at 1044. That’s its 200 day exponential moving average. Both Walter Murphy and Stock Market Cycles had listed 1043 as a probable target (darn good call). Friday’s lows will be a critical testing area.
For today, the napkins suggest early support in the S&P may be around 1048/1052 with the backup 1040/1043. Resistance looks like 1070/1074 and then 1080/1085. We need to be careful because the Friday bounce may have released enough of the oversold to allow the bears another shot.
Spots Spotty Yet Again – Our ham radio pal passed along the latest data on sunspots. The spots did not exactly disappear but activity clearly diminished. The sunspot numbers for January 28th through February 3rd were: 13, 12, 25, 14, 16, 11, 11. Longtime readers will recall that the lowest spot number, other than zero, is 11. That represents a single weak spot. So for six of the seven days, we had a single, lonely spot. Keep that sweater handy.
The dollar driven selling was not as vicious as the selling on Thursday, but around 12:45 things started to turn rather ugly. They got even uglier as they headed to the day’s lows at 2:00. Rumors circulated that a trading firm in the crude pits was being forced to liquidate contracts.
But, shortly after 2:00, bids began to pop up in stocks as the dollar eased back. With some investigation, traders learned that there were rumors, or at least speculation, that the ECB and others might be cobbling together a rescue package for Greece over the weekend.
That late rally was a bit of a mixed blessing. Had they closed on the lows, the probable course of the market might be a touch clearer. A close at the lows would have suggested an “oversold reflex rally” for Monday extending half-way into Tuesday’s session. The rally would then fail followed by a sharp and severe selloff. The late rally took that specificity off the table. We’ll have to review the napkins for clues to the amended course.
The large Treasury auctions will get lots of attention. The government can postpone raising taxes as long as it is able to refund with easy auctions. A failed auction could throw things into disarray. The form chart says things should wind down a bit toward week’s end as Lunar New Year approaches. Thursday’s claims data will get lots of attention.
The latest speculation is about the inverted yield curve for Greek bonds. That doesn’t allow any wiggle room or time to ease into austerity. Therefore “instant austerity” runs the risk of public backlash, strikes and maybe even unrest in the streets. To buy some time, some folks speculate, that the ECB or some entity could guarantee short term Greek debt – maybe up to one year. That might buy some time. It will be interesting to see if that’s the road that is taken.
Cocktail Napkin Charting – As noted above, the late Friday reversal rally was primarily the result of rumors of a Greek rescue package. There were also technical contributors to the bounce. The S&P made its intra-day low at 1044. That’s its 200 day exponential moving average. Both Walter Murphy and Stock Market Cycles had listed 1043 as a probable target (darn good call). Friday’s lows will be a critical testing area.
For today, the napkins suggest early support in the S&P may be around 1048/1052 with the backup 1040/1043. Resistance looks like 1070/1074 and then 1080/1085. We need to be careful because the Friday bounce may have released enough of the oversold to allow the bears another shot.
Spots Spotty Yet Again – Our ham radio pal passed along the latest data on sunspots. The spots did not exactly disappear but activity clearly diminished. The sunspot numbers for January 28th through February 3rd were: 13, 12, 25, 14, 16, 11, 11. Longtime readers will recall that the lowest spot number, other than zero, is 11. That represents a single weak spot. So for six of the seven days, we had a single, lonely spot. Keep that sweater handy.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
BRING ON THE HORSES
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
2/9/2010 1:50:14 PM Eastern Time
The market continues to seesaw back and forth but news out of Europe jolted shares higher as it feels like the cavalry has come to the rescue of Greece. ECB Chairman Jean-Claude Trichet is leaving a meeting in Sydney early and will cobble together a deal despite the proud stance Greek officials have taken with respect to not asking for outside help. Pride cometh before the fall, and at this point even the Greeks should accept a gift horse. This is a high stakes game as it has been reported there is a record short position against the Euro and Spain is very vocal about traders pressuring their assets. This is no time for a marathon as this is a flat out sprint that will see speculators make a ton of money on Greece's and Spain's ruins, or be carried out on their shields. Deals can be cut, and aid can come, but these are serious issues and problems that need less spending to be part of the cure.
U.S. Economy
The economic news out today isn't top-tier stuff and is not moving the market, but it does buttress the notion this is going to be a long recovery. Wholesale inventories declined by 0.8%; the Street was looking for a decline of 0.3%. Sales edged slightly higher, and the inventory/sales ratio continued to trend lower from its February 2009 high.
The Jobs Opening Report, also known as "JOLTS", saw a dip from November's record of 6.35 job seekers for every job opening. But, at 6.11 to 1.00 it's still a shocking figure. Of course, within the report there is even more jaw-dropping news. There are 50 unemployed construction workers for each construction job opening. The numbers for 2009 are just as sobering.
* 2009: 49.4 million were hired, down from 56.5 million in the prior year period
* 2009: 22.0 million people quit, down from 30.9 million in 2008
In December, there was a surge in retail job openings, and manufacturing also posted a noticeable improvement.
The action today is positive but volume is suspect and so, too, lulls will see much ground yielded swiftly. But a surge into the close would send a very positive message
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
2/9/2010 1:50:14 PM Eastern Time
The market continues to seesaw back and forth but news out of Europe jolted shares higher as it feels like the cavalry has come to the rescue of Greece. ECB Chairman Jean-Claude Trichet is leaving a meeting in Sydney early and will cobble together a deal despite the proud stance Greek officials have taken with respect to not asking for outside help. Pride cometh before the fall, and at this point even the Greeks should accept a gift horse. This is a high stakes game as it has been reported there is a record short position against the Euro and Spain is very vocal about traders pressuring their assets. This is no time for a marathon as this is a flat out sprint that will see speculators make a ton of money on Greece's and Spain's ruins, or be carried out on their shields. Deals can be cut, and aid can come, but these are serious issues and problems that need less spending to be part of the cure.
U.S. Economy
The economic news out today isn't top-tier stuff and is not moving the market, but it does buttress the notion this is going to be a long recovery. Wholesale inventories declined by 0.8%; the Street was looking for a decline of 0.3%. Sales edged slightly higher, and the inventory/sales ratio continued to trend lower from its February 2009 high.
* 2009: 49.4 million were hired, down from 56.5 million in the prior year period
* 2009: 22.0 million people quit, down from 30.9 million in 2008
In December, there was a surge in retail job openings, and manufacturing also posted a noticeable improvement.
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Traders make $8bn bet against euro
By Peter Garnham, Victor Mallet and David Oakley in London
Published: February 8 2010 11:48 | Last updated: February 8 2010 19:03
Traders and hedge funds have bet nearly $8bn (€5.9bn) against the euro, amassing the biggest ever short position in the single currency on fears of a eurozone debt crisis.
Figures from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which are often used as a proxy of hedge fund activity, showed investors had increased their positions against the euro to record levels in the week to February 2.
The build-up in net short positions represents more than 40,000 contracts traded against the euro, equivalent to $7.6bn. It suggests investors are losing confidence in the single currency’s ability to withstand any contagion from Greece’s budget problems to other European countries.
Amid growing nervousness in financial markets over whether countries including Spain and Portugal can repair their public finances, Madrid on Monday launched a PR offensive to try to assuage investors’ fears.
Elena Salgado, Spanish finance minister, and José Manuel Campa, her deputy, flew to London to meet bondholders.
They sought to allay doubts about Spain’s creditworthiness by repeating promises to cut its budget deficit to 3 per cent of gross domestic product by 2013 from 11.4 per cent last year. “We’ll make the adjustment that’s necessary,” Mr Campa said. But their disclosure that the treasury planned to raise a net €76.8bn through debt issuance this year unsettled markets further. The projected sum to be raised was lower than the €116.7bn of 2009 but higher than many investors had expected.
The news sent yields on Spanish government bonds, which have an inverse relationship with prices, sharply higher. The premium demanded by investors to hold the country’s debt over German bunds rose to 1 percentage point.
The Spanish government is convinced it is being unfairly treated by foreign investors and the media. José Blanco, Spain’s public works minister, hit out at “financial speculators” for attacking the euro and criticised “apocalyptic commentaries” about Spain’s finances.
Appealing for patriotism, Mr Blanco said in a radio interview: “Nothing that is happening in the world, including the editorials of foreign newspapers, is casual or innocent.”
The single currency fell to an eight-month low of $1.3583 on Friday but recovered a little on Monday to $1.3683. Analysts said sentiment towards the euro had soured because of the increasing concern over Greece’s fiscal problems.
Thomas Stolper, economist at Goldman Sachs, said: “ Behind this intense focus on Greece obviously is the long-standing unresolved issue of how to enforce fiscal discipline in a currency union of sovereign states.”
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2010. Print a single copy of this article for personal use. Contact us if you wish to print more to distribute to others.
By Peter Garnham, Victor Mallet and David Oakley in London
Published: February 8 2010 11:48 | Last updated: February 8 2010 19:03
Traders and hedge funds have bet nearly $8bn (€5.9bn) against the euro, amassing the biggest ever short position in the single currency on fears of a eurozone debt crisis.
Figures from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which are often used as a proxy of hedge fund activity, showed investors had increased their positions against the euro to record levels in the week to February 2.
The build-up in net short positions represents more than 40,000 contracts traded against the euro, equivalent to $7.6bn. It suggests investors are losing confidence in the single currency’s ability to withstand any contagion from Greece’s budget problems to other European countries.
Amid growing nervousness in financial markets over whether countries including Spain and Portugal can repair their public finances, Madrid on Monday launched a PR offensive to try to assuage investors’ fears.
Elena Salgado, Spanish finance minister, and José Manuel Campa, her deputy, flew to London to meet bondholders.
They sought to allay doubts about Spain’s creditworthiness by repeating promises to cut its budget deficit to 3 per cent of gross domestic product by 2013 from 11.4 per cent last year. “We’ll make the adjustment that’s necessary,” Mr Campa said. But their disclosure that the treasury planned to raise a net €76.8bn through debt issuance this year unsettled markets further. The projected sum to be raised was lower than the €116.7bn of 2009 but higher than many investors had expected.
The news sent yields on Spanish government bonds, which have an inverse relationship with prices, sharply higher. The premium demanded by investors to hold the country’s debt over German bunds rose to 1 percentage point.
The Spanish government is convinced it is being unfairly treated by foreign investors and the media. José Blanco, Spain’s public works minister, hit out at “financial speculators” for attacking the euro and criticised “apocalyptic commentaries” about Spain’s finances.
Appealing for patriotism, Mr Blanco said in a radio interview: “Nothing that is happening in the world, including the editorials of foreign newspapers, is casual or innocent.”
The single currency fell to an eight-month low of $1.3583 on Friday but recovered a little on Monday to $1.3683. Analysts said sentiment towards the euro had soured because of the increasing concern over Greece’s fiscal problems.
Thomas Stolper, economist at Goldman Sachs, said: “ Behind this intense focus on Greece obviously is the long-standing unresolved issue of how to enforce fiscal discipline in a currency union of sovereign states.”
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2010. Print a single copy of this article for personal use. Contact us if you wish to print more to distribute to others.
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NOT SURE WHY...BUT WE'LL TAKE IT
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
2/11/2010 1:23:25 PM Eastern Time
You have to love the intraday reversal of the market today, although one has to wonder why it was off to begin with. Before the bell, there was word of a resolution of the situation in Greece and initial jobless claims beat consensus. Okay, I admit the situation in Greece will be flaky in reality for a long time and the initial jobless claims number was something to cry about not cheer. But, the market needed something to cling to, and these are two difficult areas. Now that there is some action to the upside it's lacking the critical element of convincing volume. Hey, beggars can't be choosy. Moreover, weak volume was part of the market in 2009, but the rally never ran out of steam. The housing market seems to be in play today as homebuilder stocks are substantially higher even after mixed news on the foreclosure front.
Foreclosure Trends
David Urani, Housing Analyst Wall Street Strategies
According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings decreased by 9.7% from December to January, although year over year comparisons remained constant at a 15% increase (foreclosures increased 15% from November to December as well). The market seems to be taking the report positively, although we would be cautious, considering we saw a similar sequential drop last January that turned out to be just a speed bump amidst quickly rising foreclosures. We are also inclined to take foreclosure readings these days with a grain of salt, perhaps a handful of salt; banks, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the government are all experimenting with several different alternatives to foreclosure, which is causing delays in the pipeline, but a good portion of these loans that are being delayed are still expected to be foreclosed on.
Another thing to worry about is the high levels of bank repossessions. Despite total foreclosure filings being up 15% year over year, actually repossessions (industry jargon uses the term "REO" which stands for real estate owned property) of homes by banks are up 31%, indicating that vacant homes are actually hitting the market faster than they were a year ago. Given that fact, and the idea that foreclosures are still above the 300,000 level, it's clear the housing market is still in crisis mode.
Interestingly one of the larger public homebuilders, Lennar (LEN), today announced it purchased approximately $3.0 billion of mortgages that the FDIC picked up from failed banks. The purchase price was $243 million, a steep discount. This could be taken as a sign that Lennar expects delinquencies to moderate, but we see it more of a bargain pickup; it seems like the majority of those mortgages could still go bust and Lennar could would still be able to make a profit.
Technical Point of View
It's good that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is above 10,000 and fought for dear life whenever that number was challenged, but the big news comes when the index gets above 10,200 and finds the catalyst(s) to breakout through 10,500
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
2/11/2010 1:23:25 PM Eastern Time
You have to love the intraday reversal of the market today, although one has to wonder why it was off to begin with. Before the bell, there was word of a resolution of the situation in Greece and initial jobless claims beat consensus. Okay, I admit the situation in Greece will be flaky in reality for a long time and the initial jobless claims number was something to cry about not cheer. But, the market needed something to cling to, and these are two difficult areas. Now that there is some action to the upside it's lacking the critical element of convincing volume. Hey, beggars can't be choosy. Moreover, weak volume was part of the market in 2009, but the rally never ran out of steam. The housing market seems to be in play today as homebuilder stocks are substantially higher even after mixed news on the foreclosure front.
Foreclosure Trends
David Urani, Housing Analyst Wall Street Strategies
According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings decreased by 9.7% from December to January, although year over year comparisons remained constant at a 15% increase (foreclosures increased 15% from November to December as well). The market seems to be taking the report positively, although we would be cautious, considering we saw a similar sequential drop last January that turned out to be just a speed bump amidst quickly rising foreclosures. We are also inclined to take foreclosure readings these days with a grain of salt, perhaps a handful of salt; banks, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the government are all experimenting with several different alternatives to foreclosure, which is causing delays in the pipeline, but a good portion of these loans that are being delayed are still expected to be foreclosed on.
Another thing to worry about is the high levels of bank repossessions. Despite total foreclosure filings being up 15% year over year, actually repossessions (industry jargon uses the term "REO" which stands for real estate owned property) of homes by banks are up 31%, indicating that vacant homes are actually hitting the market faster than they were a year ago. Given that fact, and the idea that foreclosures are still above the 300,000 level, it's clear the housing market is still in crisis mode.
Technical Point of View
It's good that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is above 10,000 and fought for dear life whenever that number was challenged, but the big news comes when the index gets above 10,200 and finds the catalyst(s) to breakout through 10,500