S&P 500 Le news di oggi (6 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione gipa69
- Data di Inizio
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Fa molta fatica ad arrivarci, segno di debolezza dopo il breakout della mm200 e della fascia di resistenza che aveva tenuto parecchio.Probabilmente le scadenze di domani tengono a freno l'indice, bisognerà vedere poi dove vorranno andare per cui questo break per il momento è solo una illusione ottica.
Imark
Forumer storico
Aggiungici che sono 2 giorni che si sono rimessi a comprare a mani basse il T-Bond decennale... cmq vediamo...
superbaffone
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superbaffone
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la vecchia regola del 3 funziona sempre
superbaffone
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gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
The normal expectation following a strong trend day, such as the one yesterday in the [FONT=Garamond,Garamond][FONT=Garamond,Garamond]US Equities markets[/FONT][/FONT], is for consolidation. After a directional day, we can expect a day with many false starts and head fakes below support and above resistance. For short-term traders, this is the primary playbook today, but it is also important to realize that the structure of yesterday’s trend day was somewhat atypical—a gap opening, strong trend in the first hour, consolidation for the remainder of the day, and then a test lower on close.
It is possible that the market has done enough consolidation that we could have a strong directional move off the open today, and our clear bias for that move should be down. It is difficult to imagine a scenario that would see the bulls stepping in to sweep the market quickly to new highs, but it pays to prepare mentally for the unexpected. The key to this unlikely scenario would be strength that easily lifts above 1045 (cash) and then exceptionally strong rallies.
While it might seem that we have just outlined a pretty useless playbook (the market could go up, down or sideways!), the value is in ranking the plays in order of likelihood, and understanding how to recognize each distinct scenario: 1) the consolidation play is most likely. An opening range will be established and tests outside that range will be short-lived. In this case, watch for a possible breakout into a trend in the late afternoon. 2) the immediate downside is less likely, but would be characterized by strong selloffs and the market rather quickly holding below yesterday’s low. 3) The upside scenario is very unlikely but could be very damaging to unprepared shorts. Watch for clear rallies holding higher lows on pullbacks.
For longer-term players, it appears we have now dropped the bottom of the range and will likely work our way down into the 950’s over the next few weeks. Every rally is suspect until further notice—even a rally to 1080 (cash) could be an appropriate spot to initiate shorts. We strongly feel that investors with a longer horizon are best served by a large allocation to cash at these current levels. In short, the current risk factors are decidedly skewed to the downside, and there will almost certainly be opportunities to buy at lower prices over the next few weeks.
It is possible that the market has done enough consolidation that we could have a strong directional move off the open today, and our clear bias for that move should be down. It is difficult to imagine a scenario that would see the bulls stepping in to sweep the market quickly to new highs, but it pays to prepare mentally for the unexpected. The key to this unlikely scenario would be strength that easily lifts above 1045 (cash) and then exceptionally strong rallies.
While it might seem that we have just outlined a pretty useless playbook (the market could go up, down or sideways!), the value is in ranking the plays in order of likelihood, and understanding how to recognize each distinct scenario: 1) the consolidation play is most likely. An opening range will be established and tests outside that range will be short-lived. In this case, watch for a possible breakout into a trend in the late afternoon. 2) the immediate downside is less likely, but would be characterized by strong selloffs and the market rather quickly holding below yesterday’s low. 3) The upside scenario is very unlikely but could be very damaging to unprepared shorts. Watch for clear rallies holding higher lows on pullbacks.
For longer-term players, it appears we have now dropped the bottom of the range and will likely work our way down into the 950’s over the next few weeks. Every rally is suspect until further notice—even a rally to 1080 (cash) could be an appropriate spot to initiate shorts. We strongly feel that investors with a longer horizon are best served by a large allocation to cash at these current levels. In short, the current risk factors are decidedly skewed to the downside, and there will almost certainly be opportunities to buy at lower prices over the next few weeks.
