Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond Chimica Europa

[Imark]

BASF fornisce notizie di prima mano sul proprio business profile nel contesto attuale.

BASF aggiunge ulteriori tagli al costo del lavoro programmando riduzioni dei turni allo scopo di compensare con un contenimento dei costi la riduzione del livello di utilizzo di taluni impianti sotto il 75%.

Più in generale, BASF non esclude di dover varare ulteriori misure in direzione del contenimento dei costi di manodopera, anche mediante tagli alla forza lavoro, ove la debolezza dei mercati dovesse persistere.

I piani varati a metà novembre, che prevedevano che 1/5 della forza lavoro di BASF worldwide eliminasse gli straordinari, fruisse delle ferie non godute e riducesse il numero di ore lavorate, saranno resi più drastici in funzione del peggioramento del quadro congiunturale.

Il calo delle vendite registrato a novembre è stato superiore a quello previsto e, secondo il CEO, non si intravedono segnali di recupero.

La debolezza si estende a molti dei settori in cui BASF è presente, ed è legata soprattutto al cattivo andamento dell'automotive e del comparto dell'edilizia; fra i pochi segmenti che tengono, quello della chimica agricolturale e degli additivi per le produzioni alimentari.

BASF Slows Factories, May Cut Jobs as Market Wanes (Update2)


By Andrew Noel

Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- BASF SE, the world’s largest chemical company, reduced production at plants and said it may cut additional jobs as customers in the faltering automotive and construction industries run down inventory.

More than 1,800 workers face shorter days as factories are operating at less than 75 percent capacity on average, the Ludwigshafen-based company said today. The shares slid 1.08 euros, or 4.6 percent, to 22.68 euros in Frankfurt trading.

Sales since the end of November have been “disappointing” and Chief Executive Officer Juergen Hambrecht sees no signs of a recovery, the company said. Shorter shifts will be introduced for 1,500 workers at a coatings plant in Munster, Germany, as well as for two smaller sites in Italy. BASF has cut about 200 jobs, short of the 5,000 posts being eliminated at Dow Chemical Co. as the U.S. company closes plants and sells businesses.

BASF will “maintain strict discipline with regard to costs,” Hambrecht said in a statement. It will “accelerate the implementation of our existing global restructuring and efficiency programs.”

Business declined more than expected in November, hurting earnings, and further job reductions may be necessary, depending on how economies develop, BASF said.

The German maker of exhaust catalytic converters and coatings announced plans in mid-November to halt or curtail production at plants in Germany, Belgium, the U.S. and China, forcing about 20,000, or one-fifth of its employees, to reduce overtime, work shorter hours and take unused vacation. The deterioration in the last two months led those plans to be extended now.

Only demand for crop-protection products and additives for foods remains high, BASF said.

BASF shares have declined 47 percent in the past 12 months, giving the company a market value of 21 billion euros ($27.6 billion).

 

[lorenzo63]

Sempre Basf...

facendo seguito a Mark ...


20 gennaio 2009 @ 09:24:13 CET
La crisi dell'auto impatta sulle attività coating in Germania e in Italia.

L'andamento degli ultimi due mesi del 2008, con un dicembre particolarmente critico, confermato nelle prime settimane di quest'anno, non sono stati soddisfacenti per il gruppo chimico tedesco, che ha visto ridurre ulteriormente la domanda di gran parte dei propri prodotti (uniche eccezioni agricoltura e alimentare), soprattutto di quelli destinati al settore automotive. Una situazione che il CEO della società, Jürgen Hambrecht, giudica difficile e imprevedibile, e che non ritiene possa migliorare nei prossimi mesi.
In vista della crisi, BASF aveva annunciato a novembre riduzioni temporanee di produzione in numerosi impianti localizzati nei sei grandi complessi chimici, tanto che oggi il tasso di utilizzo è inferiore al 75% della capacità complessiva. Dove possibile, la società ha utilizzato ferie forzate, blocco degli straordinari e misure di riduzione temporanea dell'orario di lavoro, in taluni casi trasferendo - quando consentito - lavoratori da un impianto all'altro all'interno del medesimo sito.
Misure che non sembrano sufficienti a far fronte alla caduta della domanda, in particolare per gli impianti legati al settore automotive, dove ora si prospettano interventi più radicali: forme di "short-time", analoghe alla nostra 'cassa integrazione', colpiranno a metà febbraio la produzione di coating (vernici e rivestimenti) nei siti di Münster (1.500 addetti) e Schwarzheide (180 addetti). La cassa integrazione vera e propria è in vigore da gennaio anche negli stabilimenti italiani BASF Coating di Verbania e Burago, dove sono interessati dal provvedimento circa 150 lavoratori.
La "cassa integrazione" alla tedesca è stata invece evitata fino ad oggi a Ludwigshafen e Anversa, grazie alla possibilità di utilizzare in modo flessibile la forza lavoro, anche se sono in corso trattative con i sindacati per poter avviare in tempi rapidi, qualora fosse necessario, interventi straordinari nel sito principale della società a Ludwigshafen. In Germania, in tempo di crisi le aziende hanno la possibilità di ridurre l'orario di lavoro o di lasciare a casa temporaneamente i lavoratori in esubero, per un periodo massimo di 18 mesi. Parte del salario, come succede in Italia, viene erogato dall'agenzia federale dell'impiego.
Hambrecht afferma che la società sta mantenendo sotto controllo costi e spese, e l'implementazione dei piani di ristrutturazione già elaborati sarà accelerata. In quest'ottica, saranno presto chiusi uno stabilimento per coating in New Jersey (USA) e un impianto per la produzione di intermedi per materie plastiche in Corea; le due misure interesseranno nel complesso circa 200 addetti.

Secondo il gruppo tedesco, "ulteriori tagli occupazionali potrebbero divenire necessari in funzione del futuro andamento dei mercati”.

 

[lorenzo63]

Sabic: -95% il net profit nella trimestrale (ultima del 08)...

Sabic 4Q 08 Net Pft -95% At SAR311M On Lower demand

DUBAI (Zawya Dow Jones)--Saudi Basic Industries Corp. (2010.SA), or Sabic, the Middle East's largest listed company, said Tuesday fourth-quarter net profit fell 95% missing analysts estimates as demand for its products fell.
Net profits fell to 311 million Saudi riyals ($83 million), compared with SAR6.87 billion a year earlier, the company said in a statement on the Saudi bourse Web site.
Estimates for Sabic's fourth quarter earnings were mostly in the SAR3 billion range. Dubai-based investment bank Shuaa Capital had forecast a 69% fall. Sabic closed Monday up 1.6% to SAR44.90 on the Tadawul.
The company said in the statement that "the decline in demand for petrochemical products, particularly specialty plastics, arising from the crisis afflicting the global automotive industry and building and construction sectors, has had a strong impact on the performance of Sabic affiliates outside Saudi Arabia."
In 2007 the company paid $11.6 billion to buy GE Plastics as part of its strategy to grow capacity outside the kingdom.
Total income in the fourth quarter was SAR3.51 billion, down 74% from SAR13.35 billion a year earlier. Sabic said net profit for 2008 fell by 19% to SAR22 billion, compared to SAR27 billion in 2007 as demand for petrochemicals declined.
"I can consider this to be a loss for Sabic given that about SAR250 million in net profit comes from its affiliate Safco," said Fares Hammouda, senior financial analyst at Riyadh-based KSB Capital Group.
"The results are surprising because Sabic insisted that it is weathering the global financial crisis," said Hammouda, who predicted net profit at SAR3.6 billion.
"Sabic should have given investors more guidance about shutting down operations, and this lack of transparency will hurt many people in the market today," he added.
Mohamed Al Mady, the company's chief executive had told Zawya Dow Jones in December that it will shut down plants and rein in output if the global economic crisis weighs on demand.
"We look at our costs worldwide and whenever we see opportunities for improvement of our business we'll do so, either by lowering production or shutdowns if necessary," Al Mady said.
The company, the world's largest traded petrochemicals maker, plans to double petrochemicals capacity to 77 million tons a year by 2010 at a new facility in Jubail on the East coast of Saudi Arabia.
Sabic's board decided to recommend the distribution of cash dividends at SAR3.75 per share for the second half of 2008. This will bring the total proposed dividends to SAR9 for 2008, at SAR3 per share, the company said in the statement.

 

[Capirex85]

Momento drammatico per diversi emettenti del comparto vittime della follia degli LBO nel picco del ciclo economico corrente, tra cui Ineos che se non sbaglio qualcuno seguiva...

Indebitamento eccessivo in rapporto alla redditività prevista per i prossimi trimestri e crollo dei prezzi dei prodotti che vendono a causa di un aumento dell'offerta che potrebbe durare anche 3 anni eek si sono rivelati un mix letale per i management che hanno fatto scelte poco conservative in tempi di vacche grasse.

LBO Alchemy May Force Ineos, Georgia Gulf Bankruptcy (Update1)


By Jack Kaskey and Shannon D. Harrington
Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Ineos Group Holdings, Georgia Gulf Corp. and Chemtura Corp. are crashing on a mountain of takeover debt and may follow Lyondell Chemical Co. into bankruptcy, trading in their bonds shows.
The combination of $11.7 billion in debt, frozen credit markets and the global recession are forcing the companies to negotiate with creditors to loosen terms of their loans. A glut in supplies that drove prices of polypropylene down by half since October (ndr: ) will make it even harder for plastics makers to meet debt payments, just as manufacturers in the Middle East add millions of tons of new supplies.
“The most leveraged names are the first ones that are going to run into problems,” said Andrew Brady, a New York-based analyst at CreditSights Inc. “The market knows they are struggling, and there is a huge risk of bankruptcy.”
Debt and derivatives of the companies are trading as if they are on the brink of bankruptcy. Bonds issued by closely held Ineos lost 90 cents on the euro, and credit derivatives priced in almost certain odds the company will default. Georgia Gulf bonds trade as low as 16 cents on the dollar.
Companies with below-investment grade ratings in the Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Master II Index trade at an average 64 cents on the dollar. Bonds rated below Baa3 by Moody’s Investors Service and BBB- by Standard & Poor’s are considered non- investment grade.
Innovene Buyout
The struggle at Ineos, the world’s third-biggest producer of polypropylene, used in plastic car parts and carpet fibers, can be traced to its debt-funded acquisition of BP Plc’s Innovene unit for $9 billion in 2005, which quadrupled revenue and doubled its workforce.
Ineos’s net debt was about 7.29 billion euros ($9.67 billion) as of Sept. 30, or 4.3 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or ebitda, Chief Financial Officer John Reece said in a Jan. 15 interview.
“That level of leverage is quite modest,” Reece said. “Prior to the credit crunch, four times leverage was considered pretty conservative.”
Ineos is “doing as well as any other chemical company,” he said.
Chemical makers made $27.3 billion of acquisitions in 2005, including Ineos’s purchase and Chemtura’s $1.73 billion buyout of Great Lakes Chemical Corp.
Chemical Acquisitions
Industry acquisitions doubled in 2006 to $56.3 billion, before slowing to $39.9 billion in 2007. The figure rose to $48.8 billion last year, mainly because of Akzo Nobel NV’s purchase of Imperial Chemical Industries Plc for about $15.4 billion.
The tallies don’t include billionaire Len Blavatnik’s Access Industries Holdings LLC, which assembled the main pieces of LyondellBasell Industries AF SCA with the $5.7 billion acquisition of Basell BV in 2005 and the $12.2 billion purchase of Lyondell in 2007.
The companies expanded, loading up on debt, just in time for the recession that the National Bureau of Economic Research says started in December 2007. The financial crisis sparked by the collapse of subprime mortgages deepened in September as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. slid into bankruptcy, triggering the decline in the S&P 500 Index that made last year the worst for U.S. stocks since 1937.
Auto Sales
Sales by domestic automakers, among the biggest users of plastics, plunged 18 percent last year to 13.2 million vehicles, and Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predict declines this year. New home sales in the U.S. tumbled in November by the most in two decades, hitting a 17-year low, the Commerce Department reported last month.
Prospects for the economy aren’t improving, according to recent data. Output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities dropped 2 percent in December, after a revised decline of 1.3 percent in November that was more than double the previously reported decrease, the Federal Reserve said Jan. 16 in Washington.
The U.S. economy is expected to contract 1.5 percent this year, the average forecast of 60 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Moody’s forecasts 15 percent of companies will default around the world this year, compared with its 10.4 percent estimate last month.
Stimulus Plans
To combat the slide, U.S. President-elect Barack Obama and Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives proposed an $825 billion economic-stimulus plan to boost government spending and cut taxes for families and businesses. China, the biggest contributor to global economic growth, said in November it would spend $586 billion to boost its economy.
Chemical makers still will face a supply glut from the Middle East, where state-controlled companies such as Saudi Basic Industries Corp., known as Sabic, are converting cheap petroleum into ethylene. The global slowdown also is hurting Sabic, which today said fourth-quarter earnings tumbled 95 percent, more than analysts had projected.
Nine new factories in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar and Kuwait will boost global ethylene production capacity by 9.57 million tons, or about 7 percent, from early 2008 through the first half of this year, said Howard Rappaport, global business director for plastics at Chemical Market Associates Inc., a Houston-based consultant.
Prices for ethylene, the most-used petrochemical, plunged 43 percent in the fourth quarter from the third, said David Begleiter, a New York-based analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities. Polypropylene fell by 50 percent in the last two months of 2008, and the oversupply caused by the new capacity could last for three years, Begleiter said.
New Terms
With chemical demand sinking, Ineos won approval from 233 lenders last month to waive conditions temporarily on 5.18 billion euros in senior loans. The company also agreed to pay more interest and prepare a new business plan, to be released in late April. Debt can now rise to 5.25 times ebitda, up from 4.6 times, without violating covenants, Reece said.
Ineos is cutting costs to conserve cash and slashing capital spending this year by 58 percent to 250 million euros.
If chemical demand improves by the time Ineos presents its plan, investors may grant waivers and require some asset sales, said Jochen Schlachter, an analyst at UniCredit Research in Munich. If demand remains weak, Ineos may be forced into bankruptcy, he said.
“The fourth quarter is going to be disastrous,” Schlachter said. “Ineos is in a dire situation.”
Ineos Swaps
Credit-default swap traders are demanding 8.25 million euros upfront plus 500,000 euros a year to protect against default on 10 million euros of Ineos bonds for five years, according to London-based CMA DataVision. The upfront cost soared from 4.8 million euros two months ago. A year ago, it was 716,000 euros a year with no upfront payment.
Investors use credit-default swaps to hedge against losses or to speculate on a company’s ability to repay debt. The contracts pay the buyer face value if a company defaults in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent.
Ineos’s 7 7/8 percent notes maturing in February 2016 fell 1.5 cents on the euro to 10 cents on Jan. 16, Bloomberg data show. The yield rose to 83.5 percent from 74.5 percent.
The Jan. 6 filing for court protection from creditors by Houston-based Lyondell Chemical and U.S. affiliates of LyondellBasell of Rotterdam, Netherlands, came six days before Tronox Inc., the Oklahoma City-based pigment maker spun off by Kerr-McGee Corp. in 2006, filed for bankruptcy.
Maximizing Output
Chemical makers’ finances may worsen if Lyondell increases output to generate cash, driving down prices on basic plastics and compounds, UniCredit’s Schlachter said. A LyondellBasell subsidiary said last week it will restart an olefins plant that was idled in October.
Georgia Gulf’s decline began after its $1.54 billion debt- financed buyout of Canada’s Royal Group Technologies. The buyout increased sales of siding, window frames and other vinyl housing products just as demand began to deteriorate. Georgia Gulf shares dropped 84 percent last year.
Atlanta-based Georgia Gulf isn’t earning enough to satisfy loan conditions and must renegotiate with lenders or face violating debt covenants that are due to tighten on June 30, said Carl Blake, a Washington-based analyst at Gimme Credit.
‘Tough Situation’
“If it’s two or three years for the housing situation to turn around, this company is going to be pretty highly levered and in a pretty tough situation for a long time,” Blake said.
Georgia Gulf’s 9.5 percent notes due October 2014 fell 0.5 cent to 28 cents on the dollar as of Jan. 16, according to Trace, the bond reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The yield increased to 45.8 percent from 45.2 percent. That’s 43.6 percentage points more than Treasuries of a similar maturity. A spread of more than 10 percentage points is considered distressed.
Shares of Chemtura, formed in 2005 by Crompton Corp.’s buyout of Great Lakes Chemical, dropped 82 percent last year. To protect $10 million of Chemtura bonds from default, credit- default swaps traders want $5.25 million upfront and $500,000 a year, according to CMA. That compares with annual payments of $575,000 on Sept. 12, just before Lehman filed for bankruptcy.
The Middlebury, Connecticut-based company may need to sell assets to avoid defaulting on $375 million of debt due in July, said Dmitry Silversteyn, a Longbow Research analyst in Independence, Ohio.
The company agreed last month to tighter credit terms, including a smaller revolving loan, in exchange for covenant waivers on senior debt, leaving little flexibility for the July bond, Blake said.
Chemtura’s 6.875 percent notes due June 2016 fell 2.5 cents on the dollar to 47 cents today, according to Trace. The yield rose 1.1 percentage points to 21.5 percent, which is 19 percentage points more than Treasuries of a similar maturity.
“If by the end of the first quarter, there are no deals to sell assets, the chance of bankruptcy goes up considerably,” Silversteyn said.

 

[Imark]

Momento drammatico per diversi emettenti del comparto vittime della follia degli LBO nel picco del ciclo economico corrente, tra cui Ineos che se non sbaglio qualcuno seguiva...

Indebitamento eccessivo in rapporto alla redditività prevista per i prossimi trimestri e crollo dei prezzi dei prodotti che vendono a causa di un aumento dell'offerta che potrebbe durare anche 3 anni eek si sono rivelati un mix letale per i management che hanno fatto scelte poco conservative in tempi di vacche grasse.

LBO Alchemy May Force Ineos, Georgia Gulf Bankruptcy (Update1)

...

Io fra gli altri ... l'ho anche detenuta l'emissione della Ineos trattata sull'euromercato, uscendone ad ottobre 2007, a 95, insieme con il buon Methos ... poi circa un anno fa scrissi sul FOL che sarebbe defaultata... ma non per fare il menagramo ... solo che downturn compartimentale, alto leverage e crisi della liquidità tutte insieme portavano a ritenere probabile quell'esito... era solo, purtroppo, questione di tempo, ma le cose sarebbero drasticamente peggiorate...

 

[nochicco]

Lo scrivo qui

spero di non sbagliare se no mi scuso.....alla mia ricerca di obbligazioni da comprare ho trovato CARGILL ced 4,50 29-9-2014 taglio mille prezzo 84,23 da onvista RATING A XS0201947826 sono andato in internet a cercare notizie sull'azienda non mi pare male se volete aggiungere qualcosa ne sarei grato

 

[lorenzo63]

Momento drammatico per diversi emettenti del comparto vittime della follia degli LBO nel picco del ciclo economico corrente, tra cui Ineos che se non sbaglio qualcuno seguiva...

Indebitamento eccessivo in rapporto alla redditività prevista per i prossimi trimestri e crollo dei prezzi dei prodotti che vendono a causa di un aumento dell'offerta che potrebbe durare anche 3 anni eek si sono rivelati un mix letale per i management che hanno fatto scelte poco conservative in tempi di vacche grasse.

LBO Alchemy May Force Ineos, Georgia Gulf Bankruptcy (Update1)


By Jack Kaskey and Shannon D. Harrington
Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Ineos Group Holdings, Georgia Gulf Corp. and Chemtura Corp. are crashing on a mountain of takeover debt and may follow Lyondell Chemical Co. into bankruptcy, trading in their bonds shows.
The combination of $11.7 billion in debt, frozen credit markets and the global recession are forcing the companies to negotiate with creditors to loosen terms of their loans. A glut in supplies that drove prices of polypropylene down by half since October (ndr: ) will make it even harder for plastics makers to meet debt payments, just as manufacturers in the Middle East add millions of tons of new supplies.
“The most leveraged names are the first ones that are going to run into problems,” said Andrew Brady, a New York-based analyst at CreditSights Inc. “The market knows they are struggling, and there is a huge risk of bankruptcy.”
Debt and derivatives of the companies are trading as if they are on the brink of bankruptcy. Bonds issued by closely held Ineos lost 90 cents on the euro, and credit derivatives priced in almost certain odds the company will default. Georgia Gulf bonds trade as low as 16 cents on the dollar.
Companies with below-investment grade ratings in the Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Master II Index trade at an average 64 cents on the dollar. Bonds rated below Baa3 by Moody’s Investors Service and BBB- by Standard & Poor’s are considered non- investment grade.
Innovene Buyout
The struggle at Ineos, the world’s third-biggest producer of polypropylene, used in plastic car parts and carpet fibers, can be traced to its debt-funded acquisition of BP Plc’s Innovene unit for $9 billion in 2005, which quadrupled revenue and doubled its workforce.
Ineos’s net debt was about 7.29 billion euros ($9.67 billion) as of Sept. 30, or 4.3 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or ebitda, Chief Financial Officer John Reece said in a Jan. 15 interview.
“That level of leverage is quite modest,” Reece said. “Prior to the credit crunch, four times leverage was considered pretty conservative.”
Ineos is “doing as well as any other chemical company,” he said.
Chemical makers made $27.3 billion of acquisitions in 2005, including Ineos’s purchase and Chemtura’s $1.73 billion buyout of Great Lakes Chemical Corp.
Chemical Acquisitions
Industry acquisitions doubled in 2006 to $56.3 billion, before slowing to $39.9 billion in 2007. The figure rose to $48.8 billion last year, mainly because of Akzo Nobel NV’s purchase of Imperial Chemical Industries Plc for about $15.4 billion.
The tallies don’t include billionaire Len Blavatnik’s Access Industries Holdings LLC, which assembled the main pieces of LyondellBasell Industries AF SCA with the $5.7 billion acquisition of Basell BV in 2005 and the $12.2 billion purchase of Lyondell in 2007.
The companies expanded, loading up on debt, just in time for the recession that the National Bureau of Economic Research says started in December 2007. The financial crisis sparked by the collapse of subprime mortgages deepened in September as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. slid into bankruptcy, triggering the decline in the S&P 500 Index that made last year the worst for U.S. stocks since 1937.
Auto Sales
Sales by domestic automakers, among the biggest users of plastics, plunged 18 percent last year to 13.2 million vehicles, and Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predict declines this year. New home sales in the U.S. tumbled in November by the most in two decades, hitting a 17-year low, the Commerce Department reported last month.
Prospects for the economy aren’t improving, according to recent data. Output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities dropped 2 percent in December, after a revised decline of 1.3 percent in November that was more than double the previously reported decrease, the Federal Reserve said Jan. 16 in Washington.
The U.S. economy is expected to contract 1.5 percent this year, the average forecast of 60 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Moody’s forecasts 15 percent of companies will default around the world this year, compared with its 10.4 percent estimate last month.
Stimulus Plans
To combat the slide, U.S. President-elect Barack Obama and Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives proposed an $825 billion economic-stimulus plan to boost government spending and cut taxes for families and businesses. China, the biggest contributor to global economic growth, said in November it would spend $586 billion to boost its economy.
Chemical makers still will face a supply glut from the Middle East, where state-controlled companies such as Saudi Basic Industries Corp., known as Sabic, are converting cheap petroleum into ethylene. The global slowdown also is hurting Sabic, which today said fourth-quarter earnings tumbled 95 percent, more than analysts had projected.
Nine new factories in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar and Kuwait will boost global ethylene production capacity by 9.57 million tons, or about 7 percent, from early 2008 through the first half of this year, said Howard Rappaport, global business director for plastics at Chemical Market Associates Inc., a Houston-based consultant.
Prices for ethylene, the most-used petrochemical, plunged 43 percent in the fourth quarter from the third, said David Begleiter, a New York-based analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities. Polypropylene fell by 50 percent in the last two months of 2008, and the oversupply caused by the new capacity could last for three years, Begleiter said.
New Terms
With chemical demand sinking, Ineos won approval from 233 lenders last month to waive conditions temporarily on 5.18 billion euros in senior loans. The company also agreed to pay more interest and prepare a new business plan, to be released in late April. Debt can now rise to 5.25 times ebitda, up from 4.6 times, without violating covenants, Reece said.
Ineos is cutting costs to conserve cash and slashing capital spending this year by 58 percent to 250 million euros.
If chemical demand improves by the time Ineos presents its plan, investors may grant waivers and require some asset sales, said Jochen Schlachter, an analyst at UniCredit Research in Munich. If demand remains weak, Ineos may be forced into bankruptcy, he said.
“The fourth quarter is going to be disastrous,” Schlachter said. “Ineos is in a dire situation.”
Ineos Swaps
Credit-default swap traders are demanding 8.25 million euros upfront plus 500,000 euros a year to protect against default on 10 million euros of Ineos bonds for five years, according to London-based CMA DataVision. The upfront cost soared from 4.8 million euros two months ago. A year ago, it was 716,000 euros a year with no upfront payment.
Investors use credit-default swaps to hedge against losses or to speculate on a company’s ability to repay debt. The contracts pay the buyer face value if a company defaults in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent.
Ineos’s 7 7/8 percent notes maturing in February 2016 fell 1.5 cents on the euro to 10 cents on Jan. 16, Bloomberg data show. The yield rose to 83.5 percent from 74.5 percent.
The Jan. 6 filing for court protection from creditors by Houston-based Lyondell Chemical and U.S. affiliates of LyondellBasell of Rotterdam, Netherlands, came six days before Tronox Inc., the Oklahoma City-based pigment maker spun off by Kerr-McGee Corp. in 2006, filed for bankruptcy.
Maximizing Output
Chemical makers’ finances may worsen if Lyondell increases output to generate cash, driving down prices on basic plastics and compounds, UniCredit’s Schlachter said. A LyondellBasell subsidiary said last week it will restart an olefins plant that was idled in October.
Georgia Gulf’s decline began after its $1.54 billion debt- financed buyout of Canada’s Royal Group Technologies. The buyout increased sales of siding, window frames and other vinyl housing products just as demand began to deteriorate. Georgia Gulf shares dropped 84 percent last year.
Atlanta-based Georgia Gulf isn’t earning enough to satisfy loan conditions and must renegotiate with lenders or face violating debt covenants that are due to tighten on June 30, said Carl Blake, a Washington-based analyst at Gimme Credit.
‘Tough Situation’
“If it’s two or three years for the housing situation to turn around, this company is going to be pretty highly levered and in a pretty tough situation for a long time,” Blake said.
Georgia Gulf’s 9.5 percent notes due October 2014 fell 0.5 cent to 28 cents on the dollar as of Jan. 16, according to Trace, the bond reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The yield increased to 45.8 percent from 45.2 percent. That’s 43.6 percentage points more than Treasuries of a similar maturity. A spread of more than 10 percentage points is considered distressed.
Shares of Chemtura, formed in 2005 by Crompton Corp.’s buyout of Great Lakes Chemical, dropped 82 percent last year. To protect $10 million of Chemtura bonds from default, credit- default swaps traders want $5.25 million upfront and $500,000 a year, according to CMA. That compares with annual payments of $575,000 on Sept. 12, just before Lehman filed for bankruptcy.
The Middlebury, Connecticut-based company may need to sell assets to avoid defaulting on $375 million of debt due in July, said Dmitry Silversteyn, a Longbow Research analyst in Independence, Ohio.
The company agreed last month to tighter credit terms, including a smaller revolving loan, in exchange for covenant waivers on senior debt, leaving little flexibility for the July bond, Blake said.
Chemtura’s 6.875 percent notes due June 2016 fell 2.5 cents on the dollar to 47 cents today, according to Trace. The yield rose 1.1 percentage points to 21.5 percent, which is 19 percentage points more than Treasuries of a similar maturity.
“If by the end of the first quarter, there are no deals to sell assets, the chance of bankruptcy goes up considerably,” Silversteyn said.

I concetti che devono stare alla base di tutto cio' sono i seguenti:

1. Nelle poliolefine (settore di appartenenza di Lyondell) ci sono 4 dicasi 4 milioni di tons in eccesso di produzione.
2. Si è passati un average price di 900/1200 $/ton a 450/650$..non ci recuperi nemmeno le spese per far girare i reattori di polimerizzazione..
3. In realtà a questi livelli è meglio (e nn parlo x sentito dire, credetemi) è meglio spegnere piuttosto che fare le solite politiche di increase dell' output.. perchè ottieni: a) l' ampliarsi delle perdite b) l' amplificarsi delle spese di manutenzione,perchè "tirando" gli impianti generi surplus di spese c) aumenti di spese di manodopera

Credo addirittura che alla base del fallimento della trattativ Dow / Kuwait ci siano considerazioni -tardive se vogliamo- sul punto 1.
Poi il resto sono solo logiche conseguenze.

 

[lorenzo63]

spero di non sbagliare se no mi scuso.....alla mia ricerca di obbligazioni da comprare ho trovato CARGILL ced 4,50 29-9-2014 taglio mille prezzo 84,23 da onvista RATING A XS0201947826 sono andato in internet a cercare notizie sull'azienda non mi pare male se volete aggiungere qualcosa ne sarei grato

Mah: si occupano di fertiizzanti e di podotti agricoli in generale..credo che siano tra i + grandi nel commercio in cereali .. hanno forti interessi in Africa ed hanno aumentato (13/1/2009) i profit del 25% nel secondo quarter .. nonostante anch' essi si preparino a periodi poco piacevoli ... la gente mangia lo stesso...

A seguire un articolo di wsj

Cargill Inc. notched a 25% increase in profit for its fiscal second quarter, in part because results from a fertilizer investment more than offset a rare loss in its risk management and financial segment.
The commodities-processing giant said it earned $1.19 billion during the quarter ended Nov. 30, up from $954 million for the same year-ago period.
Despite the jump in earnings, there are indications that the meltdown in the agricultural commodity markets and the global financial crisis are beginning to catch up with the closely held Minneapolis company.
Cargill, which doesn't report quarterly revenues or provide details about its business segments, said earnings would have been "moderately below" the year-ago level if results from its 64.3% stake in fertilizer maker Mosaic Co. were excluded.
Also on Tuesday, Bunge Ltd., one of the world's largest processors of soybeans, lowered its full-year 2008 earnings estimate in light of "challenging economic conditions," according to a company release.
Bunge, of White Plains, N.Y., cited lower global demand for soybean products, credit constraints in Brazil and limited fertilizer sales as contributing to its gloomier forecast.
Cargill counts on a diverse business portfolio to cushion it from economic downturns. Among other things, Cargill slaughters cattle in Kansas, exports U.S. crops, processes cocoa in West Africa and trades electric power, natural gas and petroleum.
Still, says Lisa Clemens, Cargill director of investor relations, "We don't expect our company to be spared the difficulties that come with a worsening economic environment."
In particular, it's not clear how long the fertilizer business will continue to lift Cargill's earnings. The stock price of Mosaic, which processes the crop nutrients phosphate and potash, soared in 2007 and early 2008 when then-climbing grain prices ignited a global planting boom. But the stock price of Mosaic, based in Plymouth, Minn., is down 78% from its June high because prices of crops such as corn, soybeans and wheat tumbled amid fears that a slowing global economy will cool demand for these commodities.
Mosaic reported last week that profit for the second quarter ended Nov. 30 more than doubled to $959.8 million, or $2.15 a share, from the year-ago period, but management warned that the fertilizer business is slowing so sharply that the company is reducing production.
Cargill's risk management and financial segment reported its first quarterly loss in a decade. The segment includes Black River Asset Management, as well as the distressed-asset concern CarVal Investors and an energy business that trades and transports petroleum, coal, electric power and natural gas.
Cargill's status as a private company has been an advantage during past economic downturns because its management could make bargain-priced investments without having to worry about Wall Street's reaction the way its publicly traded competitors would.
But the economic environment is so uncertain that Cargill management is "preparing for the year ahead by being even more mindful of costs and expenditures, and the risks it chooses to take," the company said.

Io come mio solito consigli non ne do'... non per spocchieria, credimi..ma per rispetto dell' altrui sudore.

Ciao

 

[nochicco]

Grazie

Mille lorenzvov 1963

 

[lorenzo63]

Mille lorenzvov 1963

Sono contento che tu abbia gradito..