Obbligazioni societarie Monitor Bond Industria Aeronautica Worldwide e Linee Aeree Europee

[edo75]

c'è una scritta che non mi piace...


Bombardier Announces Cash Tender Offer for its 6.75% Notes due 2012, its 6.30% Notes due 2014 and its Floating Rate Senior Notes due 2013

February 8, 2010 — Montréal


NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO ANY PERSON LOCATED OR RESIDENT IN THE REPUBLIC OF ITALY
.

E' una cosa abbastanza frequente nei riacquisti bond, in base alla mia esperienza. La motivazione che mi sono dato è che abbiamo leggi e regolamenti troppo complessi in materia, e le società non vogliono avere problemi per cui si tolgono il dente alla radice. (Per inciso, sono escluse anche Belgio e Francia)

 

[Imark]

Il downgrade di S&P su British Airways sulla scorta del deterioramento della metrica finanziaria... atteso un gradualissimo miglioramento nel prossimo biennio, in virtù di un atteso progresso dell'EBIT legato alla ripresa del comparto, ad una rigorosa politica di contenimento dei costi e a prezzi del carburante stabili o in leggero incremento, al più, rispetto a quelli attuali, oltre che ad una stabilizzazione del deficit previdenziale sui livelli di fine 2009.

British Airways Rating Lowered To 'BB-' On Weaker Financial Risk Profile; Outlook Negative

-- Very tough industry conditions have resulted in a weakening of
U.K.-based BA's financial risk profile.
-- We consider the potential merger of BA and Iberia to be a positive
factor for BA, but we do not anticipate a change in the rating as a result of
any such merger.
-- We are lowering our long-term corporate credit rating on BA to 'BB-',
and removing all the ratings from CreditWatch negative.
-- The negative outlook reflects our expectation that trading conditions
will remain difficult, the potential adverse impact of possible industrial
action, and some uncertainty regarding the final pension recovery plan.

LONDON (Standard & Poor's) Feb. 8, 2010--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
said today that it lowered its long-term corporate credit rating on U.K.-based
British Airways PLC (BA) to 'BB-' from 'BB'. The outlook is negative.

At the same time, we lowered to 'BB-' from 'BB', our long-term rating on BA's
senior unsecured debt. The recovery rating on the senior unsecured debt is
unchanged at '4', indicating our expectation of average (30%- 50%) recovery in
the event of payment default. In addition, we lowered to 'B-' from 'B' the
rating on the non-voting cumulative preferred securities issued by British
Airways Finance (Jersey) L.P. guaranteed by British Airways PLC. Under our
criteria, preferred stock is rated at least three notches below the corporate credit rating.

All ratings were removed from CreditWatch, where they were placed with
negative implications on Nov. 13, 2009.

"The downgrade reflects our view that the very difficult industry conditions
in 2009 have resulted in a significant deterioration in the group's financial
profile, and that recovery to a level which we consider commensurate with a
'BB' rating for BA is unlikely in the near term," said Standard & Poor's
credit analyst Stuart Clements.

We view the potential merger with Iberia Lineas Aereas de Espana S.A. (Iberia; not rated) positively, but believe the benefits would take time to realize and would be unlikely to offset the difficult industry conditions and financial constraints on BA's stand-alone rating in the short term.

In lowering the rating to 'BB-' we are factoring in an anticipated gradual
improvement in the operating environment during 2010 and 2011, continued tight cost control, only a modest increase in fuel prices from current levels, and a maximum pension deficit of £3.7 billion, in line with the trustees' December valuation.

This results in a slow recovery of BA's key credit ratios within the next two years. We consider a ratio of funds from operations (FFO) to adjusted debt of at least 12% to be commensurate with the current 'BB-' rating level for BA and anticipate that we will see a steady recovery to this level by the end of calendar year 2011.

"The negative outlook reflects our view that industry conditions will remain
very difficult and that any improvement in the operating environment will be gradual and linked to an improvement in economic conditions," said Mr.
Clements.

Furthermore, the outlook reflects the risk that the recovery may be even
slower than anticipated, or beset by further deterioration before a sustained improvement is seen. We also factor into the outlook the risk of a significant increase in fuel prices, the potential adverse impact of industrial action, and the risk that BA will be subject to an onerous pension recovery plan.

We consider a positive movement in the outlook unlikely, but any such revision would ultimately be linked to better-than-expected operating conditions and an accelerated improvement in BA's financial profile. At the current rating level we factor in a steady improvement of BA's financial profile with FFO to adjusted debt exceeding 12% within two years.

 

[Imark]

Bombardier, che viene ad emettere un nuovo bond da 1 mld $ per incrementare la poropria dotazione di liquidità, anche in vista di incrementi nel capex legati alla messa in produzione della nuova classe di aerei che dovrebbe entrare in produzione nel 2013, vede confermato il proprio rating da S&P.

Si ritiene improbabile nel breve termine un miglioramento dei rating. Un peggioramento potrebbe essere collegato al deterioramento della posizione di liquidità sulla quale potrebbero incidere una persistente debolezza del comparto dell'aeronautica commerciale ed un affievolirsi del cash flow generato dalla divisione transportation.

L'outlook stabile incorpora una flessibilità finanziaria ridotta, ed una rating action negativa sarà possibile in caso di crescita del elverage sopra 4x o di riduzione della cassa generata a fronte del debito sotto il 20% per un periodo di tempo prolungato.

Solo un ritorno ad una fase normalizzata del mercato dell'aeronautica commerciale che consenta un sensibile miglioramento della metrica finanziaria di Bombardier (leverage 2,5x, FFO/Debt pari o superiore al 40%) giustificherebbero una revisione al rialzo di outlook o rating.

Bombardier Inc.'s US$1 Billion Proposed Senior Unsecured Notes Rated 'BB+' (Recovery Rating: '4');CCR Affirmed At 'BB+'

• We are assigning our 'BB+' senior unsecured issue rating and '4' recovery
  rating to Bombardier Inc.'s proposed US$1 billion senior unsecured notes
  due 2020.
• We are also affirming our 'BB+' long-term corporate credit and senior
  unsecured debt ratings on the company.
• The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Bombardier will maintain
  strong liquidity through fiscal 2011, which should support its expected
  increased capital spend program and provide a cushion for continued
  weaker market conditions.

TORONTO (Standard & Poor's) Feb. 8, 2010--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
today said it assigned its 'BB+' debt rating (the same as the corporate credit
rating on the company) and '4' recovery rating to Montreal-based Bombardier
Inc.'s proposed US$1 billion senior unsecured notes due 2020. The '4' recovery
rating indicates the expectation of an average (30%-50%) recovery in the event
of a payment default. (For the complete corporate credit rating rationale, see
the research report to be published on RatingsDirect immediately following
this media release.)

At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'BB+' long-term corporate
credit and senior unsecured debt ratings on the company. The '4' recovery
rating on the senior unsecured notes is unchanged. The outlook is stable.

"Though Bombardier will be increasing its funded debt through the proposed
note offering, we believe the improved liquidity offsets the company's larger
debt amount in our assessment of the company's financial risk profile," said
Standard & Poor's credit analyst Jamie Koutsoukis. "The rating, however, also
incorporates our expectation that the company will maintain its substantial
liquidity position. Should a prolonged aerospace demand slump, or
slower-than-expected cash flow from transportation significantly weaken
Bombardier's liquidity position, we could look to lower the ratings," Ms.
Koutsoukis added.

The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Bombardier will maintain
strong liquidity through fiscal 2011, which we believe should support the
company's expected increased capital spend program and provide a cushion for
continued weaker market conditions, particularly within the aerospace
division. The outlook also incorporates additional but modest deterioration in
the company's credit measures as Bombardier increases its funded debt to
augment its liquidity position through its proposed US$1 billion note offering
and as cash flow generation remains reduced because business conditions in the
aerospace division remain challenging. A negative rating action is possible
upon further deterioration of adjusted debt to EBITDA to more than 4x or if
adjusted FFO to debt falls below 20% for a sustained period. The rating
action, if taken, would also reflect our forward-looking view on aerospace
market conditions and what we consider Bombardier's ability to adjust its
capacity accordingly. Under the current business conditions, we believe an
upgrade or outlook revision to positive is unlikely in the near term.
Nevertheless, when what we view as more normal and stable market conditions
return, we could consider revising the outlook to positive or raising the
rating on Bombardier if the company improves its financial measures, with
adjusted debt to EBITDA falling below 2.5x or adjusted FFO to debt reaching
40%.

 

[Imark]

Bombardier annuncia nuove emissioni e il riacquisto di una parte dei bond attualmente in circolazione

...

Mi pare una notizia positiva per il gruppo, che decide di rifinanziarsi a tassi favorevoli allungando la scadenza media del proprio debito.

Aggiungo anche il commento di Moody's, che mi sembra più accurato e dettagliato di quello della S&P nel rendere una serie di situazioni della società. moody's è più ottimista circa il fatto che la divisione del trasporto terrestre (per la quale postula un ulteriore miglioramento del margine operativo) possa almeno in parte compensare l'indebolimento della performance di quella dell'aeronautica civile.

Anche per questa agenzia eventuali miglioramenti del rating sono rinviati a tempi migliori, quando si riprenderà il segmento della produzione aeronautica, mentre si assume una possibile debolezza della metrica finanziaria rispetto al rating (ma senza che per ora vi siano rischi di downgrade) ancora per un paio di anni.

Moody's Assigns Ba2 Rating to Bombardier Notes Issue

Toronto, February 08, 2010 -- Moody's Investors Service assigned a Ba2 rating to the planned $1 billion senior unsecured notes issue of Bombardier Inc. ("Bombardier") and affirmed all other ratings of the company including its Ba2 Corporate Family and Probability of Default ratings as well as its SGL-2 speculative grade liquidity rating. The ratings outlook remains stable.

Assignments:
..Issuer: Bombardier Inc.
....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Assigned at Ba2, LGD4 - 52%

Bombardier plans to use roughly 60% of the proceeds to repurchase existing indebtedness pursuant to a tender offer which will further improve its already good debt maturity profile. The remaining amount will bolster its US$3 billion cash position. Bombardier's key credit metrics will only modestly weaken as a result of the transaction.

Bombardier's Ba2 rating is constrained by the persisting weak demand for business jets and commercial aircraft. While certain fundamentals appear to be improving (including increasing business jet utilization and reducing used aircraft available for sale), new aircraft orders and deliveries are expected to remain suppressed through calendar 2010 at the same time capital investment is increasing, associated with the development of the C-Series aircraft.

However, weak Aerospace results are expected to be partially offset by increasing earnings from the Transportation segment. Darren Kirk, Vice President with Moody's said, "we expect Bombardier Transportation's results to demonstrate continued improvement through the next couple of years driven by its sizeable backlog level, strong demand for transit globally and the likelihood that further margin enhancement will be achieved."

On a consolidated basis, Moody's expects Bombardier's financial metrics will remain weak for its rating through much of the next year, before improvement begins to occur in fiscal 2012.

Bombardier's rating could be downgraded if leverage increased and remained above 4.25x and EBIT/ Interest expense dropped below 1.75x. Upwards rating movement would require evidence that the cyclical down forces in Aerospace had abated and leverage would improve below 3.25x and EBIT/ Interest would remain above 2.75x.

Moody's last rating action on Bombardier was on October 9, 2009 at which time Bombardier's Speculative Grade Liquidity rating was upgraded to SGL-2 from SGL-3 and its other ratings were affirmed.
....
[FONT=&quot][/FONT]

 

[mostromarino]

EADS chiude a -763 mln per A400M e cambi

Per EADS il 2009 si chiude con un margine lordo teorico di 2,2 miliardi di euro su un fatturato di 42,8 mld che si tramuta in una perdita netta di 763 mln per gli accantonamenti straordinari per l’A400M e la debolezza del dollaro. Nel 2008 vi era stato un utile netto di 1.572 mln. Di conseguenza gli azionisti non riceveranno dividendi. È il dato più significativo dei risultati annunciati dal gruppo europeo pochi giorni dopo la conclusione dell’accordo di principio sulla rinegoziazione del contratto per il quadrimotore da trasporto. Per EADS il messaggio è dunque quello di un gruppo solido, con un portafoglio ordini di 389 mld, pari a circa nove anni di produzione, appesantito dai «ritardi sui nuovi programmi». Il plurale comprende senz’altro l’A380, del quale si annuncia un «ulteriore incremento» di produzione, ma probabilmente non lo sviluppo dell’A350 e la realizzazione del sistema di sorveglianza delle frontiere per l’Arabia Saudita. Se la congiuntura economica ha dimezzato gli ordini da 98,6 a 45,8 mld, la situazione di cassa si è giovata dell’anticipo dei pagamenti al 2009 da parte di alcuni clienti governativi ed Airbus ha registrato efficienze per due miliardi lordi attraverso il programma Power8. Anche così, la costruzione di aerei di linea ha generato un margine operativo lordo di -1,371 mld su un fatturato di 28,067 mld, contro i 1,815 mld in positivo su 28,991 mld del 2008.
Per il 2010 il gruppo stima un fatturato complessivo all’incirca stabile, almeno nell’ipotesi di un cambio medio euro-dollaro di 1,40. Ci si attendono vendite lorde di 250-300 Airbus, con un portafoglio ordini «stabilmente sovraccarico per gli aerei a corridoio singolo», dei quali aumenterà il rateo di produzione da 34 a 36 macchine al mese mantenendo il lungo raggio a quota 8. Le consegne dovrebbero essere stabili: una buona notizia, dato che il 2009 è stato l’anno record di Airbus. Resta comunque il problema dell’A380 che «benché in leggero miglioramento» nel 2010 peserà sui conti in misura analoga ai -240 mln del 2009.
Eurocopter ha visto il fatturato crescere a 4,57 mld (+2%) nonostante il calo delle consegne da 588 a 558 unità. Per il 2010 è previsto un ulteriore calo di circa 6 punti, pari a una trentina di macchine. Gli ordini netti si sono più che dimezzati, da 715 a 344 macchine, anche per effetto di 105 cancellazioni. Il portafoglio ordini è aumentato in valore (15,1 mld contro 13,8) nonostante la diminuzione in numero (1.303 contro 1.515 macchine).
Crescita in tutti i settori per la controllata spaziale Astrium, che ha visto il fatturato crescere del 12% a quota 4,799 mld. In calo il fatturato della divisione Defence & Security, che ha però ceduto l’attività aerostrutture di Augsburg a Airbus. Senza questo vi sarebbe stata - dice il gruppo - una crescita legata alle attività Eurofighter. Il portafoglio ordini è ora a quota 18,8 mld contro i 17 di fine 2008.
Le altre attività - il cui perimetro è cambiato con la riorganizzazione del gruppo e la cessione di quote - hanno visto ridurre il fatturato, il margine operativo e il portafoglio. ATR, la joint venture paritetica con Alenia Aeronautica, ha consegnato 53 macchine e raccolto 26 ordini (contro 20 nel 2008) nonostante dieci cancellazioni. Il portafoglio ordini è ora a quota 133 e il rateo di produzione è stato ridotto di circa un decimo.




Dedalonews

 

[Imark]

Le prospettive di medio termine per il comparto difesa ed industria aeronautica EMEA nella disamina di Fitch: un 2010 all'insegna della stabilità sui livelli del 2009 in termini di margini e di capacità di generazione di cassa con una modesta ripresa nel 2011.

Premesso che il 2009 è stato anno che ha confermato il carattere difensivo del settore, con crescite organiche marginali dei fatturati dei players, laddove altri comparti merceologici hanno segnato cali pesanti.

La consistenza del portafoglio ordini e la solidità dei bilanci dei players hanno fatto sì che il settore non fosse colpito dall'indebolimento generalizzato dei rating dell'industria europea.

Pur nella stabilità dei fatturati, in crescita organica media del 2,8% per le 5 società rateate da Fitch, il 2009 tuttavia ha visto un indebolimento dell'EBITDA margin e dei flussi di cassa anche per quei players del settore maggiormente attivi anche in segmenti di attività commerciale, oltre che in quello delle forniture belliche.

L'EBITDA margin è calato mediamente dal 10,9% del 2008 al 7,2% del 2009, per pressioni originate sia sul versante dei costi (anche a causa, per alcune società fra le quali EADS, di problemi legati al passaggio dalla progettazione alla messa in produzione di singoli mezzi e/o sistemi di arma), sia sul versante dei prezzi praticati in un contesto di mercato particolarmente difficile.

Analogamente, per i flussi di cassa, Fitch segnala una riduzione del FFO/revenues per i 5 players dal 9,8% del 2008 al 6,1% del 2009.

Il deterioramento della metrica finanziaria che ne è seguito nel 2009 non è stato tuttavia tale da incidere dai sui rating, confortati peraltro dalla presenza di consistenti disponibilità di riserve di cash in capo alle società del settore.

Per il 2010, la stabilizzazione attesa, con un leggero miglioramento dei profili di merito creditizio degli emittenti, sarà più tardiva ed incerta per EADS in quanto, atteso il suo coinvolgimento nella produzione aeronautica commerciale, occorrerà vedere se la ripresa dell'attività delle linee aeree si rivelerà più lenta o più debole di quanto previsto da Fitch.

In allegato il dispaccio di Fitch...

 

[Imark]

Sempre per British Airways, in marzo è arrivato anche il downgrade di Moody's. La debolezza della performance operativa ed il deficit previdenziale i principali fattori in negativo, in positivo il consistente taglio del capex varato per il 2010 ed una posizione di cassa molto elevata (con il commitment della società di conservarla su livelli alti).

Situazione in probabile miglioramento, specie in termini di leverage atteso, nella seconda metà dell'anno.

Moody's lowers British Airways to B1; outlook stable

Approximately USD1.1 billion in rated debt instruments affected

London, 17 March 2010 -- Moody's has today lowered to B1 from Ba3 the Corporate Family and Probability of Default Ratings of British Airways plc ('BA', or 'the company'); and the senior unsecured and subordinate ratings to B2 and B3, respectively. The outlook is stable. This concludes the review that was initiated on 10 November 2009.

The rating action reflects our view that credit metrics will not be commensurate with the previous rating category in the medium term. We expect furthermore that metrics will be burdened in the foreseeable future by the company's significant pension deficit, which was at GBP2.6 billion for the APS and NAPS schemes combined as of September 2009 (under IAS). We nevertheless understand that under the current agreement with the trade unions, the cash contributions to these deficits will be frozen at GBP330 million per year for three years, subject to approval by the Pensions Regulator and the trustees.

BA's liquidity remains satisfactory, with a balance of cash and equivalents of GBP1.6 billion as of December 2009, GBP456 million of general facilities, and GBP2 billion of committed aircraft facilities. We note, in addition, the company's commitment to retain a minimum cash balance of GBP1 billion, as well as the intention to reduce capital expenditure this year to GBP525 million (from GBP712 million in FY09).

The stable outlook factors in our expectation that although metrics are deemed weak for the current rating, industry demand is likely to improve earnings and metrics in 2010, and to mitigate or counter-balance ongoing operating risks. For example we recognise that any strike action, or adverse developments in fuel costs, could negatively impact earnings and credit metrics potentially into FY2011.

At the same time, we further believe that BA's own cost cutting initiatives should benefit metrics over the medium term, notably in terms of staff numbers and capacity cuts. For the current rating we would expect gross leverage to trend below 6.5x in coming quarters. Given that 2009 was likely a trough for earnings, any negative pressure on the rating at this time would likely be the result of concerns about liquidity. Conversely, positive rating pressure could occur if industry conditions enabled gross leverage to fall below 6x on a continued basis with satisfactory liquidity.

We continue to view the proposed merger with Iberia as a positive development for both airlines, although we believe that the financial impact will be longer-term. As such, while the impact for BA might over time be positive, this is offset in the nearer-term by the expected weakness in credit metrics in coming quarters.

...

The last rating action for British Airways was implemented on 10 November 2009, when all ratings were placed under review for possible downgrade.

[FONT=&quot]British Airways, based in Harmondsworth, United Kingdom, is Europe's third largest airline carrier with over 33 million passengers in FY2009 (to 31 March), and flying to over 150 destinations world-wide with a fleet of 245 aircraft at year-end. In FY2009 the company reported revenues and an operating loss (before restructuring) of GBP9 billion and GBP142 million, respectively. [/FONT]

 

[Imark]

Per chi avesse seguito le vicende di EADS e dei problemi della realizzazione dell'aereo trasporto militare A400M, con un impatto atteso in termini di penali da corrispondere per i ritardi nella realizzazione, e volesse poi capire come è andata a finire (e finisce sempre così per EADS), ossia con un accordo che di fatto rimuove le penali ed introduce misure di sostegno a favore della società dagli acquirenti del mezzo danneggiati dai ritardi, può leggere questo commento di Fitch alle intese EADS - stati acquirenti che hanno "chiuso" il caso.

Fitch: A400M Agreement Reduces EADS Rating Risk

09 Mar 2010 5:24 AM (EST)

Fitch Ratings-London/Warsaw/New York-09 March 2010: Fitch Ratings says that the principle agreement between European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company N.V.'s (EADS, rated 'BBB+'/ Stable/'F2') and the seven customer nations in relation to the A400M programme has no impact on EADS's ratings.

"While the principle agreement has led to EADS booking further provisions of EUR1.8bn and incurring an EBIT loss for 2009, the agreement marks an important positive step in the development of the programme," says Tom Chruszcz, Director in Fitch's EMEA Industrials team. "The removal of doubt pertaining to the continuation of the programme outweighs the financial consequences of the deal."

The key features of the principle agreement include an increase in the price of the contract by EUR2bn; a waiver of all liquidated damages related to delays to date by the customer nations; an additional amount of EUR1.5bn to be provided by the customer nations in exchange for participation in future export sales and an acceleration of the pre-delivery payments between 2010 and 2014.

Fitch notes that funding for participation in future export sales is not uncommon in the aerospace and defence industry. Whilst not treated as pure debt by Fitch, the agency notes that this funding is repayable in the long term.

As a result of this agreement, EADS has increased the provision relating to the A400M by EUR1.8bn for 2009, on top of the already booked EUR2.4bn, and consequently incurred an EBIT loss of EUR380m for the year. Excluding the provision, the earnings result was broadly within Fitch's expectations.

Fitch notes that the principle agreement is a prelude to a final amended contract (expected to be signed by June 2010) and is subject to further negotiations between the company and the customer nations pertaining to certain details like the cash flow timing relating to the agreed additional funding, which Fitch believes is the most important aspect of the agreement.

Furthermore, the agreement to waive penalty payments only covers the delays to the programme to date, and not any further delays in the future. Any further material delays and/or cost overruns will likely be borne by the company, and, depending on their significance and impact, may have a rating impact.

The present ratings of EADS are underpinned by the company's leading position in the global aerospace and defence industry and its sound liquidity position. At FYE09, the group had a large cash pile of over EUR11bn, against short-term debt maturities of EUR2.4bn, and total debt of EUR5.3bn. Liquidity is further bolstered by EUR3bn of long-term committed credit lines and ready access to capital markets.

While the principle agreement comes as a relief to the company, the ongoing challenges surrounding the A400M programme have served a setback to the group's defence strategy. The A400M issues have not only damaged some elements of the company's reputation for executing large defence programmes, but have also been a drain on the company's resources. The strategy to expand in the defence sector has been further hampered by the decision not to participate in the US tanker programme bidding process, which could have helped the company diversify its revenues away from its dominant commercial aerospace unit, Airbus.

[FONT=&quot]EADS is Europe's largest, and the world's second-largest, aerospace and defence group. Its most important division is the 100%-owned large commercial aircraft manufacturer Airbus SA - although the company, through its three other divisions, is also active in many key aerospace and defence segments including helicopters, military aircraft, defence electronics, security and satellites. Revenue in 2009 totalled EUR42.8bn while EBITDA totalled EUR1.4bn, including the A400M provisions.[/FONT]

 

[azetaelle]

report di fitch

appena off-topic (parla delle linee aeree statunitensi) ma comunque interessante questo report di fitch
certo lo stato di salute del settore non è (storicamente) uno dei migliori, basta guardare i rating

 

[mago gambamerlo]

http://www.turismoefinanza.it/step.jsp?page=76073

http://www.leggo.it/articolo.php?id=56599

Ragazzi , Se la Nuvola vulcanica continua (spero che svanisca all' istante ) sono kaisers very seri .... x le compagnie aeree e &.