L'outlook compartimentale per Moody's resta stabile per le telecom europee: la debolezza nei fatturati è destinata a permanere per alcuni trimestri, ma la capacità di tagliare il capex e di conservare EBIT margin e flussi di cassa significativi dovrebbe consetire di "mettere al riparo" i rating degli emittenti.
Pochi rischi di deterioramento del merito di credito in conseguenza di possibili attività di merger & acquisition: le telecom si sono per la gran parte vincolate a tenere il leverage sotto controllo ai fini della conservazione dei rating, e sarà difficile che qualcuno faccia il passo più lungo della gamba.
Moody's: European Telecoms Service Providers Outlook Stable
Revenue Pressure Expected to Persist in Medium Term
London, 17 November 2009 -- The outlook for the European telecoms service providers industry is stable, reflecting its resilience in the midst of the global economic downturn and expectations that companies will continue to post solid cash flows in the medium term, says Moody's Investors Service in a new report. However, Moody's expects the increased pressure on revenues that has existed in the past few quarters to persist. The report, "European Telecoms Service Providers Resilient, but Revenue Pressures Persist", expresses the rating agency's expectations for fundamental credit conditions in the industry for the next 12-18 months.
"Moody's expects that European telecommunications service providers will continue to post solid cash flows, based on their abilities to cut operating and capital expenses and maintain robust operating margins," explains Carlos Winzer, a Senior Vice President in Moody's Corporate Finance Group and co-author of the report. "Furthermore, Moody's expects mobile services to grow, although more slowly than in the past few years, and strict financial discipline to be maintained."
Although industry revenues are expected to decline for 2009 by 2-5%, on average, in Europe, revenue growth is not as important in Moody's methodology as cash flow, company size, business diversification and margin sustainability. Therefore, Moody's believes the industry enjoys a solid position, with strong market shares and robust margins.
Moreover, although acquisitions can put pressure on ratings, Moody's believes M&A activity is likely to be selective going forward. Industry consolidation has been seen in some markets (especially the US, where there are four national mobile players for 300 million households) but Moody's does not expect a big wave of incumbent consolidation in Europe (where there are nearly 70 operators for 350 million households). "The risk of political interference in Europe is high and this will continue to delay M&A," says Mr. Winzer. Moreover, Europe lacks a solid track record to support the thesis that large cross-border consolidation creates synergies.
"However, Moody's expects the increased pressure on revenues that has existed for the past few quarter to persist, mainly resulting from continued fixed-line subscriber losses, declining average revenue per user (ARPU), flat MOU (minutes of use), increased competition and rate reductions imposed by regulators," says Mr. Winzer.
Moody's notes that industry demand has slowed due to the recession, with growth rates eroding in 2009 and mobile revenue declining on average by 5% in Q3. Moody's believes that the future of wireless is supported by mobile Internet access, as wireless penetration in Europe is at 130% and increasing, and wireless MOU per customer is flat. Furthermore, as fixed-line subscribers continue to move away from the integrated operators, incumbents will need to expand their broadband offerings to stem the decline in voice revenue.
Acquisitions aimed at geographic diversity, investments in broadband and heightened focus on shareholder returns could put pressure on some ratings in the future. However, Moody's believes that companies' medium-term financial targets and short-term guidance are reasonable. Thus, Moody's does not expect any major deviations that would trigger rating downgrades. However, Moody's will continue to monitor events and take appropriate rating action as and when needed.
Moody's rates 36 telecoms service providers in Europe, of which 20 are incumbents/integrated operators, five are alternative fixed-line operators and 11 are wireless operators.
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