Obbligazioni bancarie MONITOR Principali banche mondiali (1 Viewer)

[METHOS]

Per riassumere qui le notizie salienti sulle principali banche usa e europee colipte dalla crisi.

Prima nazionalizzazione parziale in germania. Tocca alla grande Commerzbank

Commerzbank, lo Stato al 25%
Ricapitalizzazione da 10 miliardi

commenti - | |
8 gennaio 2009

Commerzbank, seconda banca privata tedesca, vara una ricapitalizzazione, con fondi pubblici, da 10 miliardi e annuncia che il 25% del capitale più un'azione passerà sotto il controllo dello Stato tedesco. Si tratta della prima nazionalizzazione decisa in Germania a seguito della crisi finanziaria globale. Il piano elaborato dal fondo pubblico SoFFin, da Allianz e Commerzbank è stato messo a punto ieri sera e porterà il core capital del nuovo gruppo Commerzbank/Dresdner Bank (la fusione è prevista entro fine mese) al 10 per cento.

 

[METHOS]

La notizia, che passa quasi in sordina, mi fa effetto. E' come se lo stato italiano entrasse in unicredito o san paolo.

 

[aurelianuse]

A quando deutsche bank?

 

[Imark]

A quando deutsche bank?

E' un po' che me lo chiedo...

Secondo me però la situazione che potrebbe generare un rischio di crisi sistemica è quella irlandese. L'Irlanda è nell'euro, è un piccolo paese con un mercato immobiliare che è stato in forte crescita e dunque è ora soggetto al rischio di scoppio della bolla.

Come se non bastasse, le banche irlandesi sono fortemente esposte sul mercato immobiliare britannico, a bolla anch'esso, ed alcune su quello spicchio di immobiliare UK costituito dal cd. buy-to-let, in cui la banca eroga il mutuo ad un cliente il cui intento esclusivo è quello di trarre un reddito attraverso l'affitto dell'appartamento mentre paga il mutuo.

Fenomeno tipico dell'area londinese, il buy-to-let si è rivelato un discreto affare finché i prezzi dell'affitto (anche solo di un posto letto) erano a tal punto lunari da rendere conveniente contrarre un mutuo consistente (i prezzi immobiliare erano anch'essi molto elevati, ma i tassi erano stati a lungo contenuti) per lucrare un differenziale di rendimento.

Adesso, se verranno a realizzarsi i cali occupazionali che tutti si aspettano, specie in una città come Londra, sulla cui economia i servizi finanziari pesano non poco, le richieste di affitto ed i costi dell'affitto caleranno non poco, e questo quasi paradossalmente accade insieme al calo del valore degli immobili.

Chi ha contratto un mutuo buy-to-let è dunque particolarmente motivato a cessare il pagamento delle rate...

Se si aggiunge che queste banche dipendevano per il funding dal mercato internazionale dei capitali, si capisce perché adesso si sia reso necessario ricapitalizzarle con l'intervento statale, con il risultato che delle prime 3 banche lo Stato ha una quota del 75% nell'azionariato di una delle tre e del 25% in quello delle altre due...

 

[paologorgo]

una curiosità, esiste già un indice per seguire come vanno le banche (soprattutto, ma non solo, c'è anche GM...) oggetto di aiuti statali negli USA:

NASDAQ OMX Introduces a Government Relief Index

New Benchmark Tracks Companies That are Participating in the U.S. Government's Financial Relief Plan

NEW YORK, Jan 8, 2009 (GlobeNewswire via COMTEX News Network) -- The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. (Nasdaq:NDAQ) today introduced the NASDAQ OMX Government Relief Index(sm) (Nasdaq:QGRI). The index enables investors to track the performance of U.S.-listed securities that are participating in U.S. government sponsored relief programs such as the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) or other direct government investments. The NASDAQ OMX Government Relief Index is the latest index launched by NASDAQ OMX Index Group and underscores its commitment to designing and calculating relevant world-class indexes.
"This Index allows taxpayers and other investors to measure the performance of U.S. companies that are participating in the government's financial relief plan," said NASDAQ OMX Executive Vice President John Jacobs. "We believe the NASDAQ OMX Government Relief Index will be useful in helping investors evaluate the government's investments and the impact of the relief plan on the economy during this period of historical significance."
The NASDAQ OMX Government Relief Index consists of companies across multiple industry groups that have received a direct investment from the U.S. Government greater than $1 billion. The Index is the first of the Government Relief Index Series that NASDAQ OMX will be launching in the coming weeks.
The Index is calculated in real-time across the combined exchanges and is disseminated in dollars. The index began calculation with a value of 1000.00 on January 5, 2009.

---

So far, 24 companies -- General Motors is the only nonfinancial entity -- are included in the index. A Nasdaq spokesman says there is no limit to the number of index components and more companies will be added as the government programs evolve.
The index is calculated in real-time across the combined exchanges and is disseminated in dollars. Nasdaq plans to establish other government relief indexes in the coming weeks, the exchange says.

volendo, così uno si può un po' sentire "taxpayer americano"...

 

[METHOS]

Certo che fa effetto le principali banche usa, inglesi, olandesi - belghe, germania sono tutte salvate dai rispettivi stati. Per ora quelle italiane a parte qualche fibrillazione già passata su unicredito e san paolo sembrano immuni, questo mi fa pensare parecchio, chissà dove hanno nascosto la rumenta...

Il sistema bancario in pratica è collassato, tenuto in piedi da fondi statali. Fa davvero paura..

 

[METHOS]

una curiosità, esiste già un indice per seguire come vanno le banche (soprattutto, ma non solo, c'è anche GM...) oggetto di aiuti statali negli USA:

NASDAQ OMX Introduces a Government Relief Index

Interessante. E che cazzo ci sta a fare gm? Forse già prevedevano che gmac sarebbe diventata una banca?

 

[METHOS]

Intanto piccoli aggiustamenti di rating fra bofa e merrill (per quanto valgono ancora i rating...)

2,7 trillioni di asset, quasi due volte il nostro debito. Che bestia enorme ha creato la fusione. Speriamo che non abbia troppo i piedi d'argilla questo colosso. A volte mi chiedo se bofa non abbia fatto il classico passo più lungo della gamba...
Moody's cuts Bank of America rating, raises Merrill

Thu Jan 8, 2009 3:07pm GMT
Email |Print | Reprints
[-] Text [+]
NEW YORK, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Moody's Investors Service on Thursday downgraded its rating on Bank of America, saying the bank and its recently acquired Merrill Lynch arm will face weak earnings in a struggling economy.
Bank of America (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) completed its acquisition of Merrill Lynch on Jan. 1, creating the largest U.S. bank by assets, with about $2.7 trillion. For details click on [ID:nN01332120].
Moody's cut Bank of America's rating by one notch to "Aa3," the fourth-highest investment grade, from "Aa2." The outlook is negative, meaning another rating downgrade is likely over the next 12 to 18 months.
Moody's raised Merrill's rating by two notches to "Aa3" from "A2" to match Bank of America's rating.
"The downgrade and negative outlook on Bank of America reflect Moody's view of the greater challenges Bank of America and Merrill Lynch are likely to face over the next few years under a more difficult economic environment," Moody's said in a statement.
Bank of America has taken a number of steps to bolster its capital but its common equity position remains relatively weak, with a modest cushion for unexpected losses, Moody's analyst David Fanger wrote.
Weak earnings, combined with Bank of America's sizable quarterly dividends of about $3 billion, will limit internal capital creation and constrain its ability to reduce leverage, Moody's said.
The bank also faces challenges in integrating Merrill Lynch, in particular its investment banking and wealth management businesses, where there is a risk of employee defections, Moody's said.
The most likely reason for another downgrade would be a significant deterioration in tangible common equity, most likely due to higher than anticipated losses in the bank's loan portfolio, Moody's said.
"Moody's would also consider a downgrade if there is evidence of risk management weaknesses resulting from the integration of Merrill Lynch," Fanger said. (Reporting by Dena Aubin) ([email protected]; +1-646-223-6325; Reuters Messaging: [email protected]))

 

[Imark]

Sempre a proposito di banche - e non solo - qui potete valutare se le banche che seguite a vario titolo sono implicate nella vicenda Madoff e con quale esposizione...

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/st_madoff_victims_20081215.html

 

[c0ltran3]

Commerzbank

Commerzbank Gets Fresh Bailout as Germany Takes Stake (Update3)

Email | Print | A A A



By Jann Bettinga and Oliver Suess
Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Commerzbank AG will get a second state bailout and hand a stake to the German government as it nears completion of the takeover of Dresdner Bank from Allianz SE.
Germany’s second-largest bank will receive 10 billion euros ($13.7 billion) of capital from the government, which will take a stake of 25 percent plus one share in the combined lender, Frankfurt-based Commerzbank said in a statement today.
Banks from UBS AG in Zurich to New York-based Citigroup Inc. were forced into state rescues after the September bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. froze credit markets. Chief Executive Officer Martin Blessing, who took the helm at Commerzbank in May, already tapped the state for 8.2 billion euros last November.
“The sheer size of the additional capital required is much higher than expected,” said Konrad Becker, a Munich-based analyst at Merck Finck & Co. with a “hold” rating on Commerzbank and Allianz. “This can only be explained by Commerzbank seeking to start with a clean slate before acquiring Dresdner.”
Commerzbank fell 84 cents, or 14 percent, to 5.25 euros in Frankfurt electronic trading. The stock has dropped 21 percent this year, valuing the bank at about 3.8 billion euros. Allianz fell 5.4 percent to 66.67 euros.
Capital Ratio
The capital injection will boost the combined Commerzbank- Dresdner Bank’s core capital ratio, a key measure of solvency, to about 10 percent, Commerzbank said. Germany’s bank-rescue fund, called Soffin, will buy 1.8 billion euros of Commerzbank shares and lend the rest of the money.
In an agreement with Munich-based Allianz, the insurer will boost Dresdner’s capital by a further 1.45 billion euros by taking over some of the bank’s risky assets. For Allianz, the sale of Dresdner unwinds the 23.5 billion-euro purchase announced in 2001, which has dragged on the company’s profit and stock.
Allianz will hold a 14 percent stake in Commerzbank after the merger with Dresdner is completed, compared with 18.4 percent under the previous plan, spokeswoman Petra Kruell said today. Allianz will also lend Dresdner 750 million euros.
The German government pushed a 500 billion-euro bank rescue plan through parliament on Oct. 17, offering lenders capital infusions and debt guarantees. Commerzbank became Germany’s first publicly traded bank to get cash from the rescue fund.
Not ‘Partial Nationalization’
Bayerische Landesbank, IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG and HSH Nordbank AG have been granted aid in the form of debt guarantees. Hypo Real Estate Holding AG, the Munich-based property lender, received a 50 billion-euro government bailout in October.
“Against the background of the intensified financial crisis, the new bank will thus be enabled to meet the substantially higher capital requirements for banks,” Commerzbank said in the statement.
Deutsche Bank AG, the country’s largest bank, has said it doesn’t plan to accept government funds.
The Berlin-based Finance Ministry, which will control the federal stake in Commerzbank, said today in an e-mailed statement that boosting the lender’s core capital ratio with taxpayers’ money sent a “strong signal that the Commerzbank is strong.”
The ministry denied that the action equaled a “partial nationalization” of the lender. The government stake will improve Commerzbank’s competitiveness, the ministry stated.
Commerzbank said in November it would accelerate its takeover of Dresdner by as much as a year to complete the 5.1 billion-euro deal this month. The takeover’s terms were revised after Commerzbank lost more than half of its market value since Aug. 31, when it agreed to buy Dresdner in a cash and share purchase then valued at 9.8 billion euros.