ETC Natural Gas

[cobra2407]

Ciao a tutti...Notizie sul wheat...Io il mio short mi sa che me lo dovrò tener stretto per parecchio.. almeno fino a marzo il roll è a mio favore.. x caso qlc1 mi sa dire se l'etc short è già su marzo o quota ancora dicembre...Indici al di là di analisi e cicli io credo che dal momento in cui non succeda qqlcosa di eccezionale si andrà sempre più in basso... è come se abbiamo un motore vecchio che fa le bizze lo ripariamo una volta e riparte 2 riparte ma alla fine la macchina un bel giorno non funzionerà più..questa è la mia visione dei mercati.. son stati drogati e finchè l'effetto dura si sale poi giù... finchè non cambiano i dati sul pil sulla disoccupazione sulle imprese non potremo a mio modo di vedere andare da nessuna parte... io vedo solo sempre più famiglie che faticano ad arrivare alla fine del mese..la borsa e l'economia rispecchiano il benessere della gente.. ciao ciao

 

[NEO_99]

Dati tedeschi di oggi hanno dato il via al sell off.... e quì si fa' dura...

 

[NEO_99]

Wheat e grains

GRAINS-U.S. wheat up as global crop concerns stoke export hopes | Agricultural Commodities | Reuters

 

[NEO_99]

Gas, Le previsioni di Ben:

observation:
temperatures dropped off last week boosting res/comm heating demand in the northeast.
total population weighted temperatures were approximately average, but lower than the same week last year.
hurricane sandy outages reduced both power and home heating demand last week, but not as much as initially expected.
sandy caused nuke outages to surpass 30,000mw last week, placing additional loads on gas fired units.
in addition, most of the power outages were concentrated along the coast where temperatures remained mild, muting any potential heating demand destruction.
weather normalized power burns have been showing continued weakness overall during the past month indicating that coal is winning back in several regions.
i expect the market to be close to balanced on a weather normalized basis once high utility maintenance is completed.
pipeline data suggests a lower inject to report while my wx regression suggests closer to 30.
many storage facilities in the midwest flipped over to draws last week, making some pipe flow figures less reliable.



storage week total population weighted degree demand (HDD + CDD) --
last week: 104 (3cdd 101hdd)
previous week: 68 (12cdd 56hdd)
same week last yr: 115 (4cdd 111hdd)
avg: 103 (6cdd 97hdd)
next wk fcst: 113 (6cdd 107hdd)
* source: NOAA


storage:
same week last yr: +48
5-yr avg: +36
*note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia:http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls

my estimate is + 21bcf

 

[maxgas]

Sell pesanti a Wall Street nel post Election Day, pesa spaccatura al Congresso Usa

 

[Donzauker]

Un saluto a tutti. C'è nessuno? Cosa farà oggi il gas secondo voi?

 

[Donzauker]

Le previsioni dell'EIA sono per +27...un pò meno ottimistiche rispetto a Ben...

DJ US NATURAL GAS INVENTORY SURVEY: 27-BCF Injection Seen
Published: Nov 07, 2012

By Dan Strumpf


Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show a smaller-than-average build in natural gas inventories in the wake of Hurricane Sandy.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that 27 billion cubic feet of gas were injected to storage during the week ended Nov. 2, according to the average prediction of 17 analysts and traders in a Dow Jones Newswires survey.

The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EST.

The survey's median result was for a build of 25 billion cubic feet, with a high estimate of a 50-bcf injection and a low of a 16-bcf build.

The storage estimate comes in below last year's 48-bcf addition in storage for the same week and under the 36-bcf five-year average addition for that week.

If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of Nov. 2 will total a record 3.935 trillion cubic feet, about 7% above the five-year average and 3% above last year's level for the same week.

Write to Dan Strumpf at [email protected].

 

[Donzauker]

...ma sarebbero comunque very bullish....

 

[lodo]

Un saluto a tutti. C'è nessuno? Cosa farà oggi il gas secondo voi?

ci

 

[Donzauker]

+21. bullish.
Ben è un drago