Su Imperial Tobacco ho reperito un recente report di Fitch... lo posto. Fich ventila anche la possibile violazione di un covenant di performance (che credo riguardi i prestiti bancari contratti da Imp Tobacco) senza tuttavia fornire molti elementi di valutazione (neanche si sa se è un covenant che si possa violare senza dover richiedere una sospensione ai creditori oppure meno).
Ci sono i dati precisi sul discorso delle valute di denominazione del debito e di realizzazione del fatturato.
Poi c'è da dire che entro la metà del 2010 dovrà nuovamente rivolgersi al mercato per il rimborso del prestito ponte (Fitch ipotizza fra 2 e 3 mld GBP di nuovo approvvigionamento), e molto dipenderà da quali saranno le condizioni della liquidità. In realtà Fitch ipotizza un ritorno sul mercato già nei prossimi mesi.
Mah...
Fitch Affirms Imperial Tobacco's 'BBB-'; Outlook Remains Negative
03 Feb 2009 6:52 AM (EST)
Fitch Ratings-London-03 February 2009: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed UK-based Imperial Tobacco Group's (Imperial) Long-term Issuer Default rating (IDR) and senior unsecured rating at 'BBB-' (BBB minus) and its Short-term IDR at 'F3'. The Outlook remains Negative. The senior unsecured ratings of debt issued by the following subsidiaries of Imperial Tobacco Group plc are also affirmed at 'BBB-' (BBB minus)/'F3':
- Imperial Tobacco Finance PLC
- Imperial Tobacco Overseas BV
- Altadis Emisiones Financieras, S.A.U
- Altadis Finance BV
"The Negative Outlook reflects the risk that the de-leveraging process may be slowed down by lower-than-anticipated cash flow growth over the coming two years. It also reflects Fitch's concerns about Imperial's sizeable refinancing needs in 2010, in excess of its currently available liquidity," says Giulio Lombardi, Senior Director in Fitch's European Retail, Leisure and Consumer Products Group.
The affirmation reflects Imperial's progress in integrating the operations of the Franco-Spanish tobacco company, Altadis, it acquired a year ago. It also reflects Imperial's strengthened operating profile, following the Altadis acquisition, as the fourth largest player in the global and consolidated tobacco industry.
In addition, the rating takes into account Fitch's view that the company remains on course to de-leverage to levels compatible with the current 'BBB-' (BBB minus) rating.
Adjusting for Altadis's annualised operating EBITDAR, Fitch estimates Imperial's FYE08 lease-adjusted net debt/operating EBITDAR would be approximately 4.3x, in line with expectations. However, currency fluctuations, execution risk in the group's restructuring programme and reducing disposable income suggest Imperial is unlikely to achieve its FY09 leverage target of mid 3.0x.
Fitch estimates that in FY09, the company's EBITDA/Net Interest ratio could fall to the mid 4.0x, in relation to a covenant of 4.0x. The ratio is then expected to improve from FY10 onwards.
Following the Altadis acquisition, Imperial launched a major programme to restructure its European manufacturing footprint. Following successful consultations between the company and the French trade unions, the planned efficiency gains of up to EUR400m by FY12 appear achievable.
With production rationalisations in the UK and the integration of the sales forces at Altadis and Imperial now almost complete, the group's remaining challenges include effectively implementing the French, Spanish and German manufacturing footprint, headcount reductions and the shift of capacity to other plants. Execution risk is partly mitigated by the fact that although the next two years will be more important, implementation is staggered over three to four years.
While the appreciation of the euro and the USD since late 2008 has supported Imperial's reported cash flow in GBP equivalents, it has also inflated net debt considerably given the large share of foreign currency-denominated debt.
Almost 90% of Imperial's debt is denominated in euro and USD. At the same time, the company generates 50% of its profits in euro and 10% in USD, with only 20% in GBP, its reporting currency. Although this has adversely affected its leverage ratios, Imperial's foreign currency debt is adequately covered by cash flow in corresponding currencies.
Also, in analysing Imperial's leverage metrics, Fitch acknowledges the company's substantial level of free cash flow (before working capital movements) of, on a pro forma annualised basis, at least between GBP0.8bn and GBP1bn per annum, as well as management's stated commitment to an investment-grade rating.
Completion of the GBP11.3bn acquisition of Altadis has enhanced Imperial's product and brand portfolio - which was weaker than its peers in terms of the profile and scope of its international cigarette brands - and strengthened its positions in the stable and highly cash-generative German, French and Spanish markets. Additionally, Imperial continues to enjoy a joint leadership position in the highly profitable UK market. In these countries, albeit closely challenged by financially stronger rivals, Imperial is able to capitalise on the mid- to low-priced positioning of its offering, which are particularly attractive in an environment of high cigarette prices.
Fitch calculates that Imperial's liquidity requirements are currently only covered for 2009. By July 2010, when a major portion of approximately GBP4.65bn (at current exchange rates) of the Altadis acquisition facility comes due, Imperial will need to source new financing. Depending on how much free cash flow Imperial is able to generate by July 2010, Fitch estimates the company will need to raise between GBP2bn and GBP3bn of new financing.
While Fitch expects Imperial to access the debt capital markets over the next few months, the magnitude of this capital-raising may prove challenging, and expensive, in the current market conditions.