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tommy271

Forumer storico
Portugal’s 10-Year Bonds Decline for Fourth Day as Italy’s Drop


By Neal Armstrong - Sep 13, 2013 5:45 PM GMT+0200






Portugal’s 10-year bonds fell for a fourth day before European Union and International Monetary Fund officials begin two reviews next week on how the nation is meeting the terms of its financial aid program.

Italy’s 10-year government bonds declined for the first time in three days as euro-area leaders voiced concern that political instability could threaten economic reforms. Italian three-year borrowing costs rose to the most since October at an auction yesterday. German (GDBR10) bonds rose after a report showing U.S. retail sales climbed less than economists forecast boosted demand for safer assets before the Federal Reserve decides whether to slow the pace of bond purchases next week.

“Italy and Portugal are the riskiest places in Europe right now,” said Allan von Mehren, chief analyst at Danske Bank A/S (DANSKE) in Copenhagen. “There is also the tapering issue next week and people are probably cutting down on risk ahead of the meeting.”

Portuguese 10-year yields climbed 19 basis points, or 0.19 percentage point, to 7.42 percent at 4:43 p.m. London time after reaching 7.43 percent, the highest since July 15. The 4.95 percent bond maturing in October 2023 fell 1.165, or 11.65 euros per 1,000-euro ($1,328) face amount, to 82.845.

The rate on similar-maturity Italian bonds increased five basis points to 4.58 percent, while that on Spain’s 10-year securities climbed four basis points to 4.50 percent.

Portugal Bailout

Portugal requested a 78-billion euro bailout package from the EU and IMF in April 2011 following a surge in debt levels and borrowing costs.

Portugal has not formally requested to change its 4 percent budget deficit target which forms part of its aid program, Finance Minister Maria Luis Albuquerque told reporters in Vilnius today. A potential adjustment of the deficit target does mean Portugal will need more time or more money, she said.

Albuquerque’s comments came after Vice Premier Paulo Portas said this week the government has argued the case for a deficit target of 4.5 percent.

Silvio Berlusconi said last month that he would bring down the Italian government should Prime Minister Enrico Letta’s Democratic Party vote to oust him from the Senate over tax fraud. The billionaire former premier softened his rhetoric a day later, saying he wasn’t issuing an ultimatum and wanted the coalition to continue. Still, allies including Renato Brunetta, chief whip of Berlusconi’s People of Liberty party in the lower house of parliament, have kept up the pressure.

‘Political Stability’

“It’s essential to maintain political stability,” in Italy, European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn told reporters today in Vilnius, Lithuania, before a meeting of euro-area finance ministers.

Retail sales in the U.S. rose 0.2 percent in August, the smallest increase in four months, the Commerce Department said in Washington. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 0.5 percent advance.

Benchmark German 10-year yields dropped three basis points to 1.97 percent after climbing as much as five basis points to 2.05 percent.
Volatility on Portuguese bonds was the highest in the euro area today, followed by those of the Netherlands and Italy, according to measures of 10-year debt, the yield spread between two- and 10-year securities, and credit-default swaps.

Portuguese bonds returned 1.2 percent this year through yesterday, according to Bloomberg World Bond Indexes. Italian securities earned 3 percent, while those of Germany dropped 2.7 percent.


To contact the reporter on this story: Neal Armstrong in London at [email protected]
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Portugal's next bailout review could drop the compliments


By Axel Bugge

LISBON | Sun Sep 15, 2013 7:44pm BST






(Reuters) - Portugal's leaders have generally done what their international lenders have advised, setting a pattern of government compliance and official praise. This week's bailout inspection could be different.

For the first time since Portugal received its bailout in 2011, European Union and International Monetary Fund officials arriving on Monday will have to deal with new Deputy Prime Minister Paulo Portas, who nearly brought down the government in July by challenging the pain of austerity measures.

Portas threatened to take his small, populist centre-right party out of government, which would have robbed it of its majority. The standoff won him promotion to deputy prime minister overseeing negotiations on the bailout.

He has already said last week that he wants an easing of the budget deficit goal for 2014, drawing a bold line between his stance and that of former Finance Minister Vitor Gaspar, who never swerved in his determination to stand by budget targets.

"It's no secret that the government and troika (of lenders) had different positions during the (previous) bailout review about the deficit," Portas said.

Gaspar resigned in July, citing lack of support for measures under the bailout.

"I don't think there is any doubt that this will be the hardest review since the programme started," said Filipe Garcia, head of Informacao de Mercados Financeiros consultants in Porto.

Reflecting that, bond yields have jumped higher in the past few weeks to above the 7 percent level where investors see dangers in 10-year debt, a trend that will not be helped by the U.S. Federal Reserve preparing to run down the bond-buying that had helped to pacify global markets.

Portugal descended into its deepest downturn since the 1970s when its debt crisis started three years ago and unemployment is near record highs after relentless spending cuts and the largest tax hikes in living memory.

While the Portuguese have grown increasingly angry at the austerity they have had to endure for three years, protests have been considerably less strident than in countries like Greece.

Many Portuguese are hopeful that the economic growth recorded in the second quarter - the first in two-and-a-half years - is the beginning of recovery. But further spending cuts could snuff out the prospect of a stronger economy improving the government's finances.

"While Portugal has been able to avoid snap elections, the political limits of austerity have been reached and there is significant pressure to go for growth," said Nicholas Spiro, managing director at Spiro Sovereign Strategy.

"The troika has already shown flexibility towards Portugal and does not want a Greek-style situation on its hands whereby it keeps cutting more slack with scant prospect of Portugal being able to stand on its own two feet."

The political noise surrounding the review may be especially loud as Portugal holds local elections on September 29. The opposition Socialists lead in opinion polls.

Apart from the growing weariness about austerity among Portugal's 10 million people, the Constitutional Court has consecutively thrown out several measures over the past year, including last month's rejection of a bill that would have effectively allowed the state to fire public sector workers.

The court could still shoot down other measures, such as lower pensions and more working hours in the public sector.

RESISTANCE TO EASE GOALS

Portas and Finance Minister Maria Luis Albuquerque travelled to Frankfurt, Brussels and Washington earlier this month to talk to officials from the 'troika' - the European Commission, European Central Bank and IMF. That suggests talks on the next review have already started.

But the signals from the 'troika' suggest Lisbon may struggle to get any easing of austerity. Under the bailout agreement it is supposed to slash around 4 billion euros (3.3 billion pounds) in spending next year.

The head of euro zone finance ministers, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, said on Friday Portugal should stick to deficit reduction goals already agreed. "I don't think it's a good signal to keep the discussion alive whether the targets should be more or less," he said.

Lisbon's challenges are large, if it wants to exit the aid programme as planned in the middle of next year. A less stringent, precautionary lifeline to replace the current bailout programme could be discussed this month.

"It seems to me that a precautionary credit line is on the cards," said Garcia. "I expect them to touch on that issue."


(Editing by Ruth Pitchford)
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Portugal wants to end 'protectorate', may seek standby loan


Mon Sep 16, 2013 11:12am EDT



* Signals Portugal to follow Ireland in seeking precautionary loan deal
* Bailout review begins, deficit target easing to be mulled again
* President hopes lenders will show "common sense" on goals




LISBON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Portugal may seek a precautionary loan deal when its bailout ends next year, assuming it passes a creditor review that is currently underway, Deputy Prime Minister Paulo Portas said on Monday.

Inspectors from the European Union and IMF started their latest review of the bailout on Monday, with Portuguese officials calling on them to further relax Lisbon's deficit goals so as not to compromise a fledgling economic recovery.

The programme is due to end in mid-2014, after which Portugal is supposed to return to financing itself in markets.

"If Portugal gets through the (combined) eighth and ninth review in a positive way, it will be significantly closer to the end of the lending programme," Portas told journalists.

Lisbon wants to "end the period of being a protectorate" and would seek to avoid following Greece into a second rescue, he said. But it may seek to negotiate a precautionary lending programme as Ireland plans to do ahead of its own bailout exit.

"There's no possible comparison between the two things," Portas said. "Portugal would be able to finance itself autonomously as well as benefit from a precautionary programme, which is not a second bailout."

The review is expected to be more difficult than previous inspections after a major government reshuffle in July which left Portas, who has challenged some austerity measures, in charge of negotiations with the lenders.

He reiterated that Lisbon would at least try to persuade them to ease its 2014 deficit target to 4.5 percent of gross domestic product from the current 4 percent, after the issue was first raised during the previous review. This year Lisbon has to cut the gap to 5.5 percent from 6.4 percent in 2012.

"This difference (on the target) between the government and the troika is not from today, it was expressed in April. It would be strange if the government did not mention this in the name of national interests," Portas said.

Lisbon still has to cut more than 4 billion euros of public spending by the end of 2014 to reach its goals. Business leaders and unions say that if implemented in full, the cuts would throw the economy back into its worst recession in decades after it showed signs of life in the second quarter.

Speaking on Monday, President Anibal Cavaco Silva acknowledged that "we can't always get what we want and Portugal's position in the international negotiations is not very strong because we cannot give up international financing". But he said he hoped the lenders would show they understood the sacrifices made by the Portuguese.

"I hope this evaluation doesn't compromise the economic recovery that started to crop up ... All indicators point to the economy continuing to evolve positively in the third quarter," Cavaco Silva said. "Basically, I hope that they learn about the country's economic and social situation and show common sense."

Portas said growth was still feeble and it was not guaranteed that it would continue. Rising exports helped the economy expand 1.1 percent in the second quarter after dipping 0.4 percent in the previous three months but the government still forecasts it will shrink by 2.3 percent this year.

The head of euro zone finance ministers, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, said on Friday Portugal should stick to deficit reduction goals already agreed.. Portugal's goals have already been eased twice since the bailout began.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Portogallo colloca 1,25 mld euro bond 3 e 18 mesi, salgono rendimenti

mercoledì 18 settembre 2013 12:04





LISBONA, 18 settembre (Reuters) - Il Portogallo ha collocato stamane 1,25 miliardi di euro complessivi di titoli di Stato a breve, con rendimenti in risalita.

In particolare Lisbona ha collocato un bond a 3 mesi per 500 milioni di euro al rendimento dell'1,081% dallo 0,766% della precedente asta di agosto. Il bid-to-cover è risultato pari a 1,8 dal precedente 3,4.

Il bond a 18 mesi è stato invece assegnato per 750 milioni al rendimento del 2,293% - massimo dallo scorso gennaio - contro l'1,603% dell'ultima asta su tale scadenza, risalente a giugno. Il rapporto di copertura è passato a 2,0 da 2,1.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Portogallo, S&P mette rating sovrano in creditwatch negativo

mercoledì 18 settembre 2013 18:33





(Reuters) - Standard & Poor's ha messo il rating sovrano del Portogallo in creditwatch negativo.
Il giudizio attuale dell'agenzia sul paese lusitano è 'BB'.
Nel report, S&P scrive di nutrire dubbi sul raggiungimento degli obiettivi in materia di debito pubblico e paventa la necessità di un secondo programma di salvataggio.
S&P scrive che il rating potrebbe essere tagliato nei prossimi mesi se la performance di bilancio non dovesse centrare i target, se i piani di riforma dovessero deragliare o se le tensioni politiche dovessero portare a ritardi o revisioni del budget 2014.
 

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