Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE T-Bond-10y-Bund : la maledizione di f4f (vm18)
- Creatore Discussione gipa69
- Data di Inizio
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
f4f ha scritto:
Secondo me dentro di loro pensano in un retest dei minimi ed anche sotto.
Comunque vedono un trading range tra i 3,5% ed i 5,5% che considerano anche tassi non eccessivamente bassi.
Ci potrebbe stare uno shock contrarian.... ma sarebbe impossibile da tradare.
f4f
翠鸟科
gipa69 ha scritto:Secondo me dentro di loro pensano in un retest dei minimi ed anche sotto.
Comunque vedono un trading range tra i 3,5% ed i 5,5% che considerano anche tassi non eccessivamente bassi.
Ci potrebbe stare uno shock contrarian.... ma sarebbe impossibile da tradare.
scusa se chiedo il chiarimento
dici tassi USA , non EU, vero?
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Monday August 28, 9:32 PM
Investor optimism falls in August
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investor optimism fell in August to a new low for the year as investors expressed growing concern about the slumping real estate market, according to the UBS/Gallup Index of Investor Optimism released on Monday.
Optimism dropped to 53 during the month of August, down from 55 points in July and down 40 points since the beginning of 2006. The August reading is the lowest since November 2005.
Seventy percent of investors in the survey said they believe conditions in the real estate market are getting worse, up from 63 percent in June. At the same time, 94 percent of those polled continue to say energy prices hurt the investment climate.
Geopolitical rumblings have 85 percent of investors worried current international tensions are hurting the investment climate. Another 75 percent are concerned about the Federal budget deficit and 72 percent worry about the danger of increased inflation.
The UBS/Gallup index polls about 800 households from around the United States with investments of $10,000 or more. Nearly 40 percent of American households have at least this amount in savings and investments.
With the back-to-school shopping season under way -- viewed as second only to the holiday season in importance for retailers -- only one-third of investors polled said they expect to shop for back-to-school items. Of those, 36 percent expect to spend more than they did last year while 11 percent expect to spend less.
The UBS/Gallup Index of Investor Optimism is conducted monthly and had a baseline score of 124 when it was established in October 1996
Investor optimism falls in August
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investor optimism fell in August to a new low for the year as investors expressed growing concern about the slumping real estate market, according to the UBS/Gallup Index of Investor Optimism released on Monday.
Optimism dropped to 53 during the month of August, down from 55 points in July and down 40 points since the beginning of 2006. The August reading is the lowest since November 2005.
Seventy percent of investors in the survey said they believe conditions in the real estate market are getting worse, up from 63 percent in June. At the same time, 94 percent of those polled continue to say energy prices hurt the investment climate.
Geopolitical rumblings have 85 percent of investors worried current international tensions are hurting the investment climate. Another 75 percent are concerned about the Federal budget deficit and 72 percent worry about the danger of increased inflation.
The UBS/Gallup index polls about 800 households from around the United States with investments of $10,000 or more. Nearly 40 percent of American households have at least this amount in savings and investments.
With the back-to-school shopping season under way -- viewed as second only to the holiday season in importance for retailers -- only one-third of investors polled said they expect to shop for back-to-school items. Of those, 36 percent expect to spend more than they did last year while 11 percent expect to spend less.
The UBS/Gallup Index of Investor Optimism is conducted monthly and had a baseline score of 124 when it was established in October 1996
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
European carmakers sweat out yen drop vs euro
Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:07am ET
FRANKFURT, Aug 28 (Reuters) - The euro's rise to record highs against the yen is heaping more pressure on European carmakers who have complained for months about the effects of what they call an undervalued Japanese currency.
The euro hit a peak close to 150 yen <EURJPY> on Monday as markets awaited U.S. data that could confirm the Federal Reserve's moderating growth outlook, amid expectations the Bank of Japan would take its time raising interest rates.
A weak yen lets Japanese carmakers keep prices in euros low while making it harder for Europeans to crack Japan's market.
"In giving its latest numbers BMW (BMWG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) did not put sensitivity to the dollar in the forefront, but rather saw more of a currency drag from the yen in the second half, where it is probably less well hedged. This will accentuate this issue," said HVB bank analyst Georg Stuerzer.
Japan is not a huge growth market and only accounts for around 5 percent of BMW unit sales, but rising purchasing power there makes it attractive for premium manufacturers, he added.
Volkswagen (VOWG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) Chief Executive Bernd Pischetsrieder said in April that Japanese rivals were getting serious support from the yen's value versus other currencies.
"Today's exchange rate is what we have to live with as far as the dollar is concerned. With the yen, things are entirely different. Our Japanese competitors take a lot of advantage from today's yen exchange rate," Pischetsrieder told reporters at a time when one euro exchanged for about 145 yen.
DaimlerChrysler (DCXGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) Chief Executive Dieter Zetsche took a similar line in a speech to business executives in April.
"We operate in a business where profit margins are often only in low single-digit percentages, whereas exchange-rate fluctuations often easily reach double digits," he said.
If a competitor enjoys an undervalued currency of 20 percent, it has a tremendous windfall to apply to pricing, technology, product renewal, marketing, and so on," he added.
Lewis Booth, executive vice president of Ford of Europe (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research), told Reuters early this year that weak Asian currencies were bound to weigh on car prices in Europe.
"I see that (with) the strong euro and very weak yen and the (Korean) won that we are going to see a lot of aggressive attacks from the Japanese and Koreans, and that is going to continue to put pressure on prices," he said.
"I am very concerned that by the time the euro/yen relation gets to what I would view as a more natural basis, the Asian capacity will be well established. They will be set up and profitable and continue to keep pressure on the business."
Booth was referring to projects by Japanese and Korean carmakers including Toyota (7203.T: Quote, NEWS, Research), Hyundai (005380.KS: Quote, Profile, Research) and Kia (000270.KS: Quote, Profile, Research) to build plants in eastern Europe that will add hundreds of thousands of cars to their output by decade's end.
Carmakers from Japan and South Korea had around 17 percent of the European new car market in the first half of 2006, according to figures compiled by the ACEA automotive industry association, about the same as in the first six months of 2005.
Asian carmakers have around 40 percent of the U.S. market, where local manufacturers have also demanded official action to raise the yen's value against the dollar.
Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:07am ET
FRANKFURT, Aug 28 (Reuters) - The euro's rise to record highs against the yen is heaping more pressure on European carmakers who have complained for months about the effects of what they call an undervalued Japanese currency.
The euro hit a peak close to 150 yen <EURJPY> on Monday as markets awaited U.S. data that could confirm the Federal Reserve's moderating growth outlook, amid expectations the Bank of Japan would take its time raising interest rates.
A weak yen lets Japanese carmakers keep prices in euros low while making it harder for Europeans to crack Japan's market.
"In giving its latest numbers BMW (BMWG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) did not put sensitivity to the dollar in the forefront, but rather saw more of a currency drag from the yen in the second half, where it is probably less well hedged. This will accentuate this issue," said HVB bank analyst Georg Stuerzer.
Japan is not a huge growth market and only accounts for around 5 percent of BMW unit sales, but rising purchasing power there makes it attractive for premium manufacturers, he added.
Volkswagen (VOWG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) Chief Executive Bernd Pischetsrieder said in April that Japanese rivals were getting serious support from the yen's value versus other currencies.
"Today's exchange rate is what we have to live with as far as the dollar is concerned. With the yen, things are entirely different. Our Japanese competitors take a lot of advantage from today's yen exchange rate," Pischetsrieder told reporters at a time when one euro exchanged for about 145 yen.
DaimlerChrysler (DCXGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) Chief Executive Dieter Zetsche took a similar line in a speech to business executives in April.
"We operate in a business where profit margins are often only in low single-digit percentages, whereas exchange-rate fluctuations often easily reach double digits," he said.
If a competitor enjoys an undervalued currency of 20 percent, it has a tremendous windfall to apply to pricing, technology, product renewal, marketing, and so on," he added.
Lewis Booth, executive vice president of Ford of Europe (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research), told Reuters early this year that weak Asian currencies were bound to weigh on car prices in Europe.
"I see that (with) the strong euro and very weak yen and the (Korean) won that we are going to see a lot of aggressive attacks from the Japanese and Koreans, and that is going to continue to put pressure on prices," he said.
"I am very concerned that by the time the euro/yen relation gets to what I would view as a more natural basis, the Asian capacity will be well established. They will be set up and profitable and continue to keep pressure on the business."
Booth was referring to projects by Japanese and Korean carmakers including Toyota (7203.T: Quote, NEWS, Research), Hyundai (005380.KS: Quote, Profile, Research) and Kia (000270.KS: Quote, Profile, Research) to build plants in eastern Europe that will add hundreds of thousands of cars to their output by decade's end.
Carmakers from Japan and South Korea had around 17 percent of the European new car market in the first half of 2006, according to figures compiled by the ACEA automotive industry association, about the same as in the first six months of 2005.
Asian carmakers have around 40 percent of the U.S. market, where local manufacturers have also demanded official action to raise the yen's value against the dollar.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
COMEX gold sinks in thin, early trade as oil drops
Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:29am ET
NEW YORK, Aug 28 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures tumbled on Monday morning, pressured by easing storm fears that prompted selling in crude oil and the metals complex, dealers said.
Oil prices lost 2 percent, or more than $1a barrel, as a Caribbean storm lost strength, reducing a threat to U.S. Gulf oil and gas installations.
Hurricane Ernesto weakened to a tropical storm but forecasters said it could regain strength as it barreled toward southeastern Cuba and the Florida Keys.
"With the hurricane being downgraded, that has brought in a little liquidation in the oil and also the gold," said Frank Aburto, a broker at Rosenthal-Collins Group.
Gold and oil have frequently moved in tandem as some investors trade commodities as a group and also as some dealers use the metal as a hedge to guard against inflation when energy prices are high.
At 10:20 a.m. EDT (1420 GMT), December delivery gold <GCZ6> fell $3.90, or 0.7 percent, to $626.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division, near the bottom of a session range of $632.70 to $626.50.
Volumes were thin, however, due to summer vacations and a bank holiday in London, said dealers. Estimated turnover was very small at 3,000 lots at 9 a.m.
"We're expecting a pretty quiet day today, with London closed," said a New York floor trader.
A soft dollar and worries over Iran should underpin the market, players said.
The dollar eased at the start of a busy week for economic data that could shed some light on U.S. interest rates beyond next month. The euro was up at $1.2809 <EUR>, up 0.45 percent from Friday.
Gold often has a tight inverse relationship with the dollar, as traders use it as an alternative to the currency.
Investors will scrutinize the minutes of the Federal Reserve's Aug. 8 policy meeting for insight into why it left its funds rate at 5.25 percent after boosting it 17 straight times in two years to June.
U.S. August payrolls on Friday and indications of price growth in the personal consumption expenditures index for July will also be closely eyed.
Markets watchers said gold may be set for decline because the market has failed to rally back up toward the $650 mark and as safe haven buying has been relatively muted.
Aburto said: "My gut feeling is that we'll see much lower prices during the day -- more liquidation.
"By the end of the week, provided that the hurricane doesn't create any major damage at any producing or refining area, I feel that gold could drift down to the low $620's," he said.
Iran said on Sunday it would never stop uranium enrichment despite a looming U.N. deadline designed to ensure it cannot develop nuclear weapons.
The United States has threatened swift action on sanctions after Aug. 31 if Iran does not heed the U.N. demand. But analysts say divisions between major powers may delay any punitive measures.
Spot gold <XAU> slid to $617.60/619.10 an ounce, from Friday's New York close at $621.50/623.00. There were no London bullion fixes on Monday, due to a UK public holiday.
COMEX September silver <SIU6> tumbled 13.0 cents to $12.24 an ounce, within a range of $12.4650 to $12.23. Spot silver <XAG> fell to $12.20/12.30 an ounce from $12.33/43 at its last close. There was no London silver fix Monday.
NYMEX October platinum <PLV6> lost $6 to $1,227 an ounce. Spot platinum <XPT> changed hands at $1,219/24.
September palladium <PAU6> eased 80 cents to $345 an ounce. Spot palladium <XPD> was at $341/346.
Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:29am ET
NEW YORK, Aug 28 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures tumbled on Monday morning, pressured by easing storm fears that prompted selling in crude oil and the metals complex, dealers said.
Oil prices lost 2 percent, or more than $1a barrel, as a Caribbean storm lost strength, reducing a threat to U.S. Gulf oil and gas installations.
Hurricane Ernesto weakened to a tropical storm but forecasters said it could regain strength as it barreled toward southeastern Cuba and the Florida Keys.
"With the hurricane being downgraded, that has brought in a little liquidation in the oil and also the gold," said Frank Aburto, a broker at Rosenthal-Collins Group.
Gold and oil have frequently moved in tandem as some investors trade commodities as a group and also as some dealers use the metal as a hedge to guard against inflation when energy prices are high.
At 10:20 a.m. EDT (1420 GMT), December delivery gold <GCZ6> fell $3.90, or 0.7 percent, to $626.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division, near the bottom of a session range of $632.70 to $626.50.
Volumes were thin, however, due to summer vacations and a bank holiday in London, said dealers. Estimated turnover was very small at 3,000 lots at 9 a.m.
"We're expecting a pretty quiet day today, with London closed," said a New York floor trader.
A soft dollar and worries over Iran should underpin the market, players said.
The dollar eased at the start of a busy week for economic data that could shed some light on U.S. interest rates beyond next month. The euro was up at $1.2809 <EUR>, up 0.45 percent from Friday.
Gold often has a tight inverse relationship with the dollar, as traders use it as an alternative to the currency.
Investors will scrutinize the minutes of the Federal Reserve's Aug. 8 policy meeting for insight into why it left its funds rate at 5.25 percent after boosting it 17 straight times in two years to June.
U.S. August payrolls on Friday and indications of price growth in the personal consumption expenditures index for July will also be closely eyed.
Markets watchers said gold may be set for decline because the market has failed to rally back up toward the $650 mark and as safe haven buying has been relatively muted.
Aburto said: "My gut feeling is that we'll see much lower prices during the day -- more liquidation.
"By the end of the week, provided that the hurricane doesn't create any major damage at any producing or refining area, I feel that gold could drift down to the low $620's," he said.
Iran said on Sunday it would never stop uranium enrichment despite a looming U.N. deadline designed to ensure it cannot develop nuclear weapons.
The United States has threatened swift action on sanctions after Aug. 31 if Iran does not heed the U.N. demand. But analysts say divisions between major powers may delay any punitive measures.
Spot gold <XAU> slid to $617.60/619.10 an ounce, from Friday's New York close at $621.50/623.00. There were no London bullion fixes on Monday, due to a UK public holiday.
COMEX September silver <SIU6> tumbled 13.0 cents to $12.24 an ounce, within a range of $12.4650 to $12.23. Spot silver <XAG> fell to $12.20/12.30 an ounce from $12.33/43 at its last close. There was no London silver fix Monday.
NYMEX October platinum <PLV6> lost $6 to $1,227 an ounce. Spot platinum <XPT> changed hands at $1,219/24.
September palladium <PAU6> eased 80 cents to $345 an ounce. Spot palladium <XPD> was at $341/346.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Tuesday August 29, 3:58 AM
Bankruptcies fall to five-year low
By Jonathan Stempel
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. bankruptcy filings fell to a five-year low as a tougher federal law made it more difficult for people to seek protection from creditors.
There were about 1.48 million personal and business bankruptcies in the year ending June 30, down 9.3 percent from the prior year, according to data released Monday by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts.
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Individual filings fell 9.5 percent to 1.45 million, while business filings declined 2.6 percent to 31,562. Total filings fell to the lowest level since the year ending September 2001, when there were 1.44 million.
Filings are down because a law that took effect last October 17 increased filing costs and requirements, and made it tougher for many individuals to have their debts excused. Credit card issuers championed the new law, saying old laws encouraged abuse.
The Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act constituted the biggest overhaul to U.S. bankruptcy laws since 1978. Filings surged ahead of the law as people sought protection sooner than they otherwise might have, but have since plummeted.
"This could be the slowest year for filings since the 1980s," said Henry Sommer, president of the National Association of Consumer Bankruptcy Attorneys, in an interview. "We're still working off the excess from last year's surge, which is why the numbers are down only a little from last year."
There were 542,002 filings from July to September 2005, and 667,431 in the following quarter, mostly before October 17.
Filings, however, plunged to 116,771 between January and March, and rebounded only to 155,833 between April and June.
The mix of filings has also changed.
About 60 percent of individuals now file under Chapter 7, which can let people wipe out their debts, down from roughly 80 percent in the four months leading up to the new law. Others use Chapter 13, which requires debt repayments.
In the law's biggest change, a "means test" requires debtors to use Chapter 13, not Chapter 7, if they earn more than the median income in their states, and can repay some of their debt.
But critics have said most filers are not trying to escape debt, but instead suffer from job loss, divorce or large medical bills, or are burdened with high interest rates and fees.
Sommer said filings should rise from recent low levels as consumers face rising credit card, energy and housing costs.
"What I'm hearing from bankruptcy lawyers is they are getting more calls," he said.
According to the Administrative Office, California had the most bankruptcy filings in the year ending June 30, with 117,622. Ohio was next with 98,775, followed by Texas at 86,794, New York with 77,398 and Illinois, 76,570.
Bankruptcies fall to five-year low
By Jonathan Stempel
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. bankruptcy filings fell to a five-year low as a tougher federal law made it more difficult for people to seek protection from creditors.
There were about 1.48 million personal and business bankruptcies in the year ending June 30, down 9.3 percent from the prior year, according to data released Monday by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts.
ADVERTISEMENT
Individual filings fell 9.5 percent to 1.45 million, while business filings declined 2.6 percent to 31,562. Total filings fell to the lowest level since the year ending September 2001, when there were 1.44 million.
Filings are down because a law that took effect last October 17 increased filing costs and requirements, and made it tougher for many individuals to have their debts excused. Credit card issuers championed the new law, saying old laws encouraged abuse.
The Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act constituted the biggest overhaul to U.S. bankruptcy laws since 1978. Filings surged ahead of the law as people sought protection sooner than they otherwise might have, but have since plummeted.
"This could be the slowest year for filings since the 1980s," said Henry Sommer, president of the National Association of Consumer Bankruptcy Attorneys, in an interview. "We're still working off the excess from last year's surge, which is why the numbers are down only a little from last year."
There were 542,002 filings from July to September 2005, and 667,431 in the following quarter, mostly before October 17.
Filings, however, plunged to 116,771 between January and March, and rebounded only to 155,833 between April and June.
The mix of filings has also changed.
About 60 percent of individuals now file under Chapter 7, which can let people wipe out their debts, down from roughly 80 percent in the four months leading up to the new law. Others use Chapter 13, which requires debt repayments.
In the law's biggest change, a "means test" requires debtors to use Chapter 13, not Chapter 7, if they earn more than the median income in their states, and can repay some of their debt.
But critics have said most filers are not trying to escape debt, but instead suffer from job loss, divorce or large medical bills, or are burdened with high interest rates and fees.
Sommer said filings should rise from recent low levels as consumers face rising credit card, energy and housing costs.
"What I'm hearing from bankruptcy lawyers is they are getting more calls," he said.
According to the Administrative Office, California had the most bankruptcy filings in the year ending June 30, with 117,622. Ohio was next with 98,775, followed by Texas at 86,794, New York with 77,398 and Illinois, 76,570.