Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
11:23 am - Spread Em: The shorter stuff was leading the way better as spreads remain the play of the day and the curve has pulled back to the steepest levels since the start of the month in negligible trade. The 2-10-yr yield spread has run back to 186.1 while the 3-mo-10-yr has been well flattened. The remainder of the session will be clean-up and more of the same old year end squaring that has been a major driver these days. Futures have continued to roll, so spreads are the only deal in that world too.
11:18 am - Sloppy Trade : The continuous 10-yr futures contract continues to track along its hourly upward channel, barely. It leaked a little this morning but its refusal to close below it is becoming amusing. Dip buyers emerged near 122. Resistance is sitting near 123-24. An hourly close below the channel bottom (say near 122-17) might be worth watching but thin trade is making for some pretty sloppy, unconvincing action.
10:31 am - Sneaking Back: Trade continues to grind on garbage volume, though there have been flurries of action splattered through the session, they have petered out quickly. The looming auto bailout is dragging on prices while auctions add further pressure. The market pushed back some but there is virtually nothing behind the move and that will remain the case.
09:59 am - Buck Chopped Down : The dollar is trying to fend off the euro above 1.30 with markets resurrecting shattered confidence on pretty thin volume and sending safe haven seekers to the sidelines. The battle is being won by the correctionists as the dollar and yen just can't gain traction on their rally attempts. But with horrific global data piling up and stock markets still clamped to the resuscitator, the dollar could see a bid returned pretty quick. In the meantime, 1.33 is in play now that offers near 1.30 have been removed. The former is a line in the sand for the correctionists to turn all out bottomists with the euro having put in a decent floor the last 2 months. While headwinds remain between here a euro close above 1.30 would be a strong signal that sentiment has shifted. The euro will face resistance near 1.3080 while near term support sits at 1.29. Against the yen, the buck is trying to clear offers near 93 with a break of 93.50 needed to juice positive momentum. The pound has support near 1.4670 with resistance near 1.4860 as it tries to rally out of the cellar. Above 1.5050 is needed to get sentiment onside again. Spot gold is holding higher at 802.70 (+25.74) as is crude at 44.13 (+2.06).
09:08 am - Give It Back: The market is working to give back its Tues gains with indications credit is getting greased and record size auctions due, with $28B in 3-yrs going off today and the 10-yrs tomorrow. The bailout bus continues to roll through and over markets, changing up the rules, fares and qualifications at every stop. The automaker bailout is helping the stocks while the near record levels on treasuries has spooked buyers and sent the 3-mo yield back to positive territory. The curve has been unwound steeper with 2-10-yr yield spread at 182.2.
08:25 am - Bad Day : Treasuries have a long day ahead of them as prices slip with catalysts lacking and trade thinned measurably. Stocks are fighting to stay on the road to recovery and should they succeed the bonds will have an even longer day. But job losses continue to pile up with Rio Tinto 86-ing 14K and hideous data around the globe suggesting near-term optimism is still misplaced. WSJ says the Fed may issue debt as the price tag on this recession explodes while the Treasury unloads $28B of 3-yr notes today. The 2-10-yr yield spread is still chopping around 180 as curve trade has settled into a comfort zone. Bond prices in the EuroZone were helped higher by bad industrial production data out of France and wholesale prices weakened in Germany. In Japan, bonds were offered on supply concerns. Treasuries get some low-tier data today and an empty Fed-speak calendar. Trade will be guided by stock sentiment. The dip buyers showed up yesterday keeping the 10-yr yield under 2.80%, which looks to be the near term line in the sand. The dollar is trying to rally as the euro failed to press above 1.30 again and now suffers the consequences while the yen holds below 93. Spot gold is firmer at 793.15 (+16.20) while crude is up at 44.05 (+1.98). Tomorrow has wholesale inventories (10) and treasury budget (14).
07:46 am - Mortgage Applications : The weekly MBA mortgage applications index dipped 7.1% last week with refis down 0.9% and purchasing applications dropping 17.4%. The fixed 30-yr mortgage rate slipped to 5.45% (-2 basis points) while the 15-yr fell to 5.09% (-4 bps) & 1-yr adjustable rate mortgages rose to 6.76% (+16 bps).
11:18 am - Sloppy Trade : The continuous 10-yr futures contract continues to track along its hourly upward channel, barely. It leaked a little this morning but its refusal to close below it is becoming amusing. Dip buyers emerged near 122. Resistance is sitting near 123-24. An hourly close below the channel bottom (say near 122-17) might be worth watching but thin trade is making for some pretty sloppy, unconvincing action.
10:31 am - Sneaking Back: Trade continues to grind on garbage volume, though there have been flurries of action splattered through the session, they have petered out quickly. The looming auto bailout is dragging on prices while auctions add further pressure. The market pushed back some but there is virtually nothing behind the move and that will remain the case.
09:59 am - Buck Chopped Down : The dollar is trying to fend off the euro above 1.30 with markets resurrecting shattered confidence on pretty thin volume and sending safe haven seekers to the sidelines. The battle is being won by the correctionists as the dollar and yen just can't gain traction on their rally attempts. But with horrific global data piling up and stock markets still clamped to the resuscitator, the dollar could see a bid returned pretty quick. In the meantime, 1.33 is in play now that offers near 1.30 have been removed. The former is a line in the sand for the correctionists to turn all out bottomists with the euro having put in a decent floor the last 2 months. While headwinds remain between here a euro close above 1.30 would be a strong signal that sentiment has shifted. The euro will face resistance near 1.3080 while near term support sits at 1.29. Against the yen, the buck is trying to clear offers near 93 with a break of 93.50 needed to juice positive momentum. The pound has support near 1.4670 with resistance near 1.4860 as it tries to rally out of the cellar. Above 1.5050 is needed to get sentiment onside again. Spot gold is holding higher at 802.70 (+25.74) as is crude at 44.13 (+2.06).
09:08 am - Give It Back: The market is working to give back its Tues gains with indications credit is getting greased and record size auctions due, with $28B in 3-yrs going off today and the 10-yrs tomorrow. The bailout bus continues to roll through and over markets, changing up the rules, fares and qualifications at every stop. The automaker bailout is helping the stocks while the near record levels on treasuries has spooked buyers and sent the 3-mo yield back to positive territory. The curve has been unwound steeper with 2-10-yr yield spread at 182.2.
08:25 am - Bad Day : Treasuries have a long day ahead of them as prices slip with catalysts lacking and trade thinned measurably. Stocks are fighting to stay on the road to recovery and should they succeed the bonds will have an even longer day. But job losses continue to pile up with Rio Tinto 86-ing 14K and hideous data around the globe suggesting near-term optimism is still misplaced. WSJ says the Fed may issue debt as the price tag on this recession explodes while the Treasury unloads $28B of 3-yr notes today. The 2-10-yr yield spread is still chopping around 180 as curve trade has settled into a comfort zone. Bond prices in the EuroZone were helped higher by bad industrial production data out of France and wholesale prices weakened in Germany. In Japan, bonds were offered on supply concerns. Treasuries get some low-tier data today and an empty Fed-speak calendar. Trade will be guided by stock sentiment. The dip buyers showed up yesterday keeping the 10-yr yield under 2.80%, which looks to be the near term line in the sand. The dollar is trying to rally as the euro failed to press above 1.30 again and now suffers the consequences while the yen holds below 93. Spot gold is firmer at 793.15 (+16.20) while crude is up at 44.05 (+1.98). Tomorrow has wholesale inventories (10) and treasury budget (14).
07:46 am - Mortgage Applications : The weekly MBA mortgage applications index dipped 7.1% last week with refis down 0.9% and purchasing applications dropping 17.4%. The fixed 30-yr mortgage rate slipped to 5.45% (-2 basis points) while the 15-yr fell to 5.09% (-4 bps) & 1-yr adjustable rate mortgages rose to 6.76% (+16 bps).
