T-BOND,T-NOTE,BUND,CME,Cbot (Lustratevi gli occhi ! V.M.90)
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Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
sosa ha scritto:ciao fleur e con l'avena ci sei rientrato?
sì mi ha preso su quello spike di metà pomeriggio, però non mi fido sto cercando di uscire
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
su tenuta 107,75 provato un long due tick sopra per i 108 , visto che è un long ,stop rigidissimo un tick sotto 107,75
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
si è messo a parlare ancora Ferguson sull'inflazione: tacci sua 
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
uscito alla pari , mancavano due tick al traguardo e quel maledetto si è rimesso a parlare e tranquillizzare sulla situazione dell'inflazione,
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
-FOMC can't allow inflation to pick up-
spero.lo.0.15%
Forumer attivo
Fleursdumal ha scritto:
ciao fleu...scusa ma non doveva eventualmente salire il bond visto che il tipo ha tranquillizzato sull'inflazione quindi il pericolo di alzare i tassi si allontana ?
scusa la domanda banale ...
grazie
ciao
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
spero.lo.0.15% ha scritto:
si hai ragione nella concitazione me la son presa con quel poveraccio che cercava di tirar acqua al mio mulino
però forse ha detto qualcos'altro che ha contrariato i bond tradersintanto son risalito a 107,75 stop sempre stretto sotto i minimi
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
e va benee due tick il massimo che son riuscito a spremere da sto future testa di rapa
avendo un pò di tempo da perdere mi son messo alla ricerca di novità sul fantomatico conto 990N , ho trovato cose interessanti per quanto opinabili:
990N - S&P market manuplation by 1 party
The Daily Reckoning has more..
...I am actually writing you to alert you to this complete market manipulation and to see if you had any pull to get the word out to different traders and the media. I am one of the biggest S&P traders in the world as far as volume per day in that I average over 40,000 round turns per day on the screen in the e-mini. I tell you this because that is how I know one house is completely manipulating the market everyday because of all the trades I do with this guy. I know it sounds hard to believe that one person can control a world market but trust me: this is occurring. He works for the firm Gelber, which is house 990.
This is the basic premise for his game. He waits until the market is relatively slow, around 9:30 to 10:00 everyday, usually when the "paper trade" starts to subside then he begins a theme, mostly always long and he begins to buy. He is always looking for confirmation of his theme with what other people are doing.
When the market stops trading in his direction he then drops in a offer of 300 to 700 which he sees if anyone is interested in buying it. If there is no interest he then buys the order from himself, with the order actually trading. He does this enough times until he attracts other buyers which then hits price points and the market runs violently in his direction.
I am sure I do not have to tell you that this is completely illegal to do. He started doing this with 300 lots back in November, now he has made so much money doing it that he is up to 2000 lots. He is completely in control of the market (illegally) the majority of the time.
My firm and I have contacted the Merc on three different occasions with video proof that I recorded of my trading. It shows blatantly this guy crossing his orders thousands of times a day. The first person we talked to in compliance admitted that he saw something there when they reviewed the video of the trades I taped of him. He was mysteriously fired the next day.
We then came up with more examples for them to review and in the beginning claimed he wasn't doing it. We called them a third time, this time talking to the head of compliance and he finally admitted that they had the guy under investigation because they saw something, but in the meantime he is still allowed to trade and make millions until their "investigation" is concluded.
They obviously love the volume the guy is putting up and how it makes the emini S&P look from a standpoint of a liquid market. But if the public had knowledge of what this guy was doing I don't think they would be too impressed with the liquidity.
There is obviously some kind of cover-up. Do any of the pit traders you know have knowledge this is happening? And do you have any advice on how I can anonymously get the word out with what this guy is doing? I know you are not a true tick by tick "scalper," but this is getting to the point where it is starting to effect everyone in the marketplace.
Please let me know what you think.
http://dailyreckoning.com/home.cfm?loc=/body_headline.cfm&qs=id=3984
by Al Frankhart Jun 24, 2004 at 02:44 PM
here are two separate posts in that Daily Reckoning article.
Re: Ginger's 990N post from the guy who trades 40K cars/day in the emini
and his comments about a liquidity mirage.
This is consistent with what I am seeing intraday. I think there may well
be a lack of liquidity at these nose-bleed levels and the tape is being
painted to give a false impression.
If you look at the emini S&P during periods of narrow movement, you will
see between 1,000 and 2,000 cars at each of the first 5 prices either
side of the last (5 is all the CME transmits). The implication is that it
will take at least 7,500 (assuming an average of 1,500 at each level) to
move the market 5 ticks in any direction.
If it were such levels of volume that actually moved the market, I would
have no problem with the sizes that I see at these levels. However, when
the market does move out of these narrow ranges, it does so on very
little or no volume. Typically, those five ticks are covered with less
than 1K cars being traded - often much less.
IMO, that is the REAL level of liquidity in this market. The rest of the
size at these prices is all smoke and mirrors. If not, then one would
have to stretch the imagination and believe that 6,500 of these contracts
are all being pulled in unison by as many as 100s if not 1000s of
different traders across the globe all at the same instant. Yes -that
could happen occasionally but this is happening multiple times during the
day - every day. Miraculously, once the move is complete on so few
trades, the thousands of contracts re-appear to once again ‘collar' the
market.
So, to stretch credulity even further, one would then have to believe
that these same unconnected traders who lifted all those orders in
unison, now put them back on again in equally perfect harmony.
Once the collar is back on, I have seen as many as 100K cars traded over
the next 3,4 hours and the market will spend most of that time in a 5
tick range with very brief excursions outside it (e.g. see 6/21 from
10:30 until 2:00 ET). So a 5 tick range that is traversed easily on [1K
cars is then unable to breakout of a 5 tick range for hours despite ]
100K being traded ??
It is far more likely that the market is being controlled and that those
sizes are being placed (and lifted), not by 100s or 1000s of unconnected
traders but by just one or two entities.
If you compare those sizes and market action with the Euro FX at the CME,
you never see anything even remotely like that collaring process. Why?
The Spoos are the lead for the market - even though it is a derivative,
many traders and programs key off it to initiate trades. It is also the
last great unrestricted, and leveraged Shorting vehicle and I think they
are scared shitless of the ease with which people can now Short and the
speed with which Short volume can accumulate.
The Euro FX, on the other hand leads nothing - It only follows the Forex
market which is much too big to control or collar. BTW – To see the
difference that is so noticeable to those who have traded the S&P for a
long time on an intraday basis: – the way the Euro FX trades is the way
the S&P used to.
The trader also wrote: “I know it sounds hard to believe that one person
can control a world market but trust me that is what is occurring”.
This only makes the story sound unnecessarily less believable. This isn't
one PERSON controlling a world market. It may be one person placing the
orders but then, that's all it takes to place the orders - one person.
There is no way that any one person would dare to do what this guy is
doing without it being underwritten by somebody huge and with the
knowledge and complicity of those who could, and should, stop it.
Otherwise, if this guy was really independent and placing all these Bids
with his own money, how long do you think it would take GS et al. to sell
a couple hundred thousand Spoos and blow him out of the water - maybe 3
seconds - tops.
The S&P dwarfs the silver market and look what happened to the Bunker-
Hunts when they tried to control it. And now we're supposed to believe
that a ‘no name' has been doing it for months/years with the S&P ??
No - this guy is just doing someone else's bidding. That he has been
doing it, I no longer have any doubt. That the big houses haven't
destroyed him and the CME has permitted it to occur is more troubling and
painting the tape to give the appearance of liquidity is as good a reason
as propping. Both reasons are an even better excuse to do it.
FWIW - Members fees are capped at $50/day in the eminis. It only takes
100 R/Ts to reach that and then all trades are free. So, if cross trades
are being permitted, then there is effectively zero overhead in engaging
in the practice on this scale.
http://www.talkaboutinvestments....vest.stocks/messages/873268.html
avendo un pò di tempo da perdere mi son messo alla ricerca di novità sul fantomatico conto 990N , ho trovato cose interessanti per quanto opinabili:
990N - S&P market manuplation by 1 party
The Daily Reckoning has more..
...I am actually writing you to alert you to this complete market manipulation and to see if you had any pull to get the word out to different traders and the media. I am one of the biggest S&P traders in the world as far as volume per day in that I average over 40,000 round turns per day on the screen in the e-mini. I tell you this because that is how I know one house is completely manipulating the market everyday because of all the trades I do with this guy. I know it sounds hard to believe that one person can control a world market but trust me: this is occurring. He works for the firm Gelber, which is house 990.
This is the basic premise for his game. He waits until the market is relatively slow, around 9:30 to 10:00 everyday, usually when the "paper trade" starts to subside then he begins a theme, mostly always long and he begins to buy. He is always looking for confirmation of his theme with what other people are doing.
When the market stops trading in his direction he then drops in a offer of 300 to 700 which he sees if anyone is interested in buying it. If there is no interest he then buys the order from himself, with the order actually trading. He does this enough times until he attracts other buyers which then hits price points and the market runs violently in his direction.
I am sure I do not have to tell you that this is completely illegal to do. He started doing this with 300 lots back in November, now he has made so much money doing it that he is up to 2000 lots. He is completely in control of the market (illegally) the majority of the time.
My firm and I have contacted the Merc on three different occasions with video proof that I recorded of my trading. It shows blatantly this guy crossing his orders thousands of times a day. The first person we talked to in compliance admitted that he saw something there when they reviewed the video of the trades I taped of him. He was mysteriously fired the next day.
We then came up with more examples for them to review and in the beginning claimed he wasn't doing it. We called them a third time, this time talking to the head of compliance and he finally admitted that they had the guy under investigation because they saw something, but in the meantime he is still allowed to trade and make millions until their "investigation" is concluded.
They obviously love the volume the guy is putting up and how it makes the emini S&P look from a standpoint of a liquid market. But if the public had knowledge of what this guy was doing I don't think they would be too impressed with the liquidity.
There is obviously some kind of cover-up. Do any of the pit traders you know have knowledge this is happening? And do you have any advice on how I can anonymously get the word out with what this guy is doing? I know you are not a true tick by tick "scalper," but this is getting to the point where it is starting to effect everyone in the marketplace.
Please let me know what you think.
http://dailyreckoning.com/home.cfm?loc=/body_headline.cfm&qs=id=3984
by Al Frankhart Jun 24, 2004 at 02:44 PM
here are two separate posts in that Daily Reckoning article.
Re: Ginger's 990N post from the guy who trades 40K cars/day in the emini
and his comments about a liquidity mirage.
This is consistent with what I am seeing intraday. I think there may well
be a lack of liquidity at these nose-bleed levels and the tape is being
painted to give a false impression.
If you look at the emini S&P during periods of narrow movement, you will
see between 1,000 and 2,000 cars at each of the first 5 prices either
side of the last (5 is all the CME transmits). The implication is that it
will take at least 7,500 (assuming an average of 1,500 at each level) to
move the market 5 ticks in any direction.
If it were such levels of volume that actually moved the market, I would
have no problem with the sizes that I see at these levels. However, when
the market does move out of these narrow ranges, it does so on very
little or no volume. Typically, those five ticks are covered with less
than 1K cars being traded - often much less.
IMO, that is the REAL level of liquidity in this market. The rest of the
size at these prices is all smoke and mirrors. If not, then one would
have to stretch the imagination and believe that 6,500 of these contracts
are all being pulled in unison by as many as 100s if not 1000s of
different traders across the globe all at the same instant. Yes -that
could happen occasionally but this is happening multiple times during the
day - every day. Miraculously, once the move is complete on so few
trades, the thousands of contracts re-appear to once again ‘collar' the
market.
So, to stretch credulity even further, one would then have to believe
that these same unconnected traders who lifted all those orders in
unison, now put them back on again in equally perfect harmony.
Once the collar is back on, I have seen as many as 100K cars traded over
the next 3,4 hours and the market will spend most of that time in a 5
tick range with very brief excursions outside it (e.g. see 6/21 from
10:30 until 2:00 ET). So a 5 tick range that is traversed easily on [1K
cars is then unable to breakout of a 5 tick range for hours despite ]
100K being traded ??
It is far more likely that the market is being controlled and that those
sizes are being placed (and lifted), not by 100s or 1000s of unconnected
traders but by just one or two entities.
If you compare those sizes and market action with the Euro FX at the CME,
you never see anything even remotely like that collaring process. Why?
The Spoos are the lead for the market - even though it is a derivative,
many traders and programs key off it to initiate trades. It is also the
last great unrestricted, and leveraged Shorting vehicle and I think they
are scared shitless of the ease with which people can now Short and the
speed with which Short volume can accumulate.
The Euro FX, on the other hand leads nothing - It only follows the Forex
market which is much too big to control or collar. BTW – To see the
difference that is so noticeable to those who have traded the S&P for a
long time on an intraday basis: – the way the Euro FX trades is the way
the S&P used to.
The trader also wrote: “I know it sounds hard to believe that one person
can control a world market but trust me that is what is occurring”.
This only makes the story sound unnecessarily less believable. This isn't
one PERSON controlling a world market. It may be one person placing the
orders but then, that's all it takes to place the orders - one person.
There is no way that any one person would dare to do what this guy is
doing without it being underwritten by somebody huge and with the
knowledge and complicity of those who could, and should, stop it.
Otherwise, if this guy was really independent and placing all these Bids
with his own money, how long do you think it would take GS et al. to sell
a couple hundred thousand Spoos and blow him out of the water - maybe 3
seconds - tops.
The S&P dwarfs the silver market and look what happened to the Bunker-
Hunts when they tried to control it. And now we're supposed to believe
that a ‘no name' has been doing it for months/years with the S&P ??
No - this guy is just doing someone else's bidding. That he has been
doing it, I no longer have any doubt. That the big houses haven't
destroyed him and the CME has permitted it to occur is more troubling and
painting the tape to give the appearance of liquidity is as good a reason
as propping. Both reasons are an even better excuse to do it.
FWIW - Members fees are capped at $50/day in the eminis. It only takes
100 R/Ts to reach that and then all trades are free. So, if cross trades
are being permitted, then there is effectively zero overhead in engaging
in the practice on this scale.
http://www.talkaboutinvestments....vest.stocks/messages/873268.html
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Reuters
UPDATE - Fed's Ferguson-inflation rise mostly transitory
Wednesday July 7, 3:47 pm ET
By Victoria Thieberger
(new throughout with question and answer session, adds byline)
NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson said on Wednesday he believed the rise of U.S. inflation in recent months was largely transitory, but the central bank stood ready to act if that view proved incorrect.
Ferguson told the New York Association for Business Economics the inflation picture had deteriorated somewhat this year, but he considered much of the rise to be transitory.
"The economy does appear to be on a path of self-sustaining growth. The pace at which we move policy rates back to neutral is therefore the key issue," Ferguson said after a speech.
"One of the things that should be driving that is clearly the committee's judgment on whether or not the recent pick-up in inflation is in fact mainly due, or in large part due, to transitory factors," he said.
"If that proves not to be the case, then the committee clearly has an obligation to respond to it. If it proves that it is the case, then that reinforces, or could possibly reinforce, the current approach (of measured rate rises)."
Last week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in four years, taking the federal funds rate to 1.25 percent from 1.0 percent.
And policymakers reiterated they hope to lift interest rates in a "measured" fashion, which economists take to mean a series of quarter-point increases.
But the central bank has clearly been taken by surprise by the pick-up in inflation this year. Core inflation rose by 1.7 percent over the year to May, already above the Fed's forecasts for inflation for 2004.
NO LUXURY OF WAITING
Ferguson said there were different ways of looking at inflation dynamics. Focusing on labor costs, which recently stopped declining, suggested that further increases in wages could be absorbed by companies that have "very large profit margins across many industries."
Alternatively, looking at measures of how much excess capacity remains in the economy, Ferguson said the output gap seems to be closing, but that the unemployment rate showed the economy was still below full employment.
"The (Fed's policy) Committee does not have the luxury of waiting to see inflation itself pick up; it's whether or not the conditions that are conducive to an increase in inflation start to come into play," Ferguson said.
He said the inflation picture has "perhaps ... deteriorated somewhat" and the Fed was not complacent about inflation, but he stressed that "some of those forces that have been driving inflation do seem to be transitory."
In a speech earlier, the No. 2 Fed official said that, although U.S. productivity growth would inevitably slow from a recent brisk pace of 4 percent to 5 percent, it could likely maintained the solid pace seen since the mid-1990s.
"There are a number of reasons to expect that the stepped- up pace of underlying productivity growth that we have experienced since the mid-1990s can persist for a while longer," he said.
But in the short-term brisk growth in hourly output per worker could slow from its recent hectic pace.
"I would not be surprised if measured productivity growth over the next few years falls below the rates of the fourth- quarter 2001 through fourth-quarter 2003 period, or even, for a time, below the average growth rate from 1995 through 2003 (of 3 percent)," Ferguson said.
For much of the past two years, companies held back from hiring as they squeezed extra output from their workers, but a slowdown in productivity suggests hiring continue to improve in recent months. (additional reporting by Wayne Cole)
UPDATE - Fed's Ferguson-inflation rise mostly transitory
Wednesday July 7, 3:47 pm ET
By Victoria Thieberger
(new throughout with question and answer session, adds byline)
NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson said on Wednesday he believed the rise of U.S. inflation in recent months was largely transitory, but the central bank stood ready to act if that view proved incorrect.
Ferguson told the New York Association for Business Economics the inflation picture had deteriorated somewhat this year, but he considered much of the rise to be transitory.
"The economy does appear to be on a path of self-sustaining growth. The pace at which we move policy rates back to neutral is therefore the key issue," Ferguson said after a speech.
"One of the things that should be driving that is clearly the committee's judgment on whether or not the recent pick-up in inflation is in fact mainly due, or in large part due, to transitory factors," he said.
"If that proves not to be the case, then the committee clearly has an obligation to respond to it. If it proves that it is the case, then that reinforces, or could possibly reinforce, the current approach (of measured rate rises)."
Last week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in four years, taking the federal funds rate to 1.25 percent from 1.0 percent.
And policymakers reiterated they hope to lift interest rates in a "measured" fashion, which economists take to mean a series of quarter-point increases.
But the central bank has clearly been taken by surprise by the pick-up in inflation this year. Core inflation rose by 1.7 percent over the year to May, already above the Fed's forecasts for inflation for 2004.
NO LUXURY OF WAITING
Ferguson said there were different ways of looking at inflation dynamics. Focusing on labor costs, which recently stopped declining, suggested that further increases in wages could be absorbed by companies that have "very large profit margins across many industries."
Alternatively, looking at measures of how much excess capacity remains in the economy, Ferguson said the output gap seems to be closing, but that the unemployment rate showed the economy was still below full employment.
"The (Fed's policy) Committee does not have the luxury of waiting to see inflation itself pick up; it's whether or not the conditions that are conducive to an increase in inflation start to come into play," Ferguson said.
He said the inflation picture has "perhaps ... deteriorated somewhat" and the Fed was not complacent about inflation, but he stressed that "some of those forces that have been driving inflation do seem to be transitory."
In a speech earlier, the No. 2 Fed official said that, although U.S. productivity growth would inevitably slow from a recent brisk pace of 4 percent to 5 percent, it could likely maintained the solid pace seen since the mid-1990s.
"There are a number of reasons to expect that the stepped- up pace of underlying productivity growth that we have experienced since the mid-1990s can persist for a while longer," he said.
But in the short-term brisk growth in hourly output per worker could slow from its recent hectic pace.
"I would not be surprised if measured productivity growth over the next few years falls below the rates of the fourth- quarter 2001 through fourth-quarter 2003 period, or even, for a time, below the average growth rate from 1995 through 2003 (of 3 percent)," Ferguson said.
For much of the past two years, companies held back from hiring as they squeezed extra output from their workers, but a slowdown in productivity suggests hiring continue to improve in recent months. (additional reporting by Wayne Cole)
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