T-Bronx5Y-10Y-Bund .. la notte dei morti viventi (vm18)
- Creatore Discussione Fernando'S
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gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Ultime da marc faber....
The Dow Jones all time high and the coming correction!
Overall, most stock markets and financial assets are over-bought, investors are very complacent and relaxed, bullish sentiment is high, and volatility is very low.
Thursday, November 23 - 2006 at 08:07
In short a combination of factors that has usually led to a sharp correction (1987) or a serious bear market (1973/74)). And whereas I think that stock markets could still make a new high into early next year, the majority of equities may already have peaked out.
As a contrarian, I would therefore now rather be short the S&P 500 than maintain long positions. The expected Fed fund rate cuts have probably already been largely discounted by the stock market.
Listening to CNBC on the days before and after the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally broke out to a new all time high I thought that a milestone in the history of mankind had occurred. In fact, I do not quite see what there is to celebrate about the Dow Jones' new high. Despite an unprecedented money and credit expansion since late 1999, US stocks and bonds have performed poorly against just about any other asset in the world.
Fed support
But why do I mention this? Simply because the notion among investors has again arisen that the Fed will soon cut interest rates and support the economy and asset markets with monetary policy measures. I believe that, sooner or later, this scenario is very likely, but instead of boosting the real economy and asset prices in the US, it will lift precious metals, commodities and foreign assets further.
Now, let us consider the following: The Fed knows that the Japanese problem in the 1990s arose out of the leveraged real estate and stock market bubble. Under Mr. Volcker (a hawk), a tight monetary policy with some form of credit controls (increase in margin requirements) would have beeen used in order to prevent the bubble getting out of hand.
But in the monetary philosophy of Mr. Greenspan and Mr. Bernanke, a bubble is never a problem. However, if the bubble bursts, a problem might arise - as was the case in Japan in the 1990s and in the US in 1929/32. So, the central bank must immediately provide enough liquidity to the system in order to prevent the bursting of the bubble having a negative impact on the economy!
Bubble trouble
I hope that everybody understands that this is in the long run a suicidal monetary policy because it leads to one asset bubble after another. So, after the NASDAQ in 2000 and housing in 2005/2006, where is the next big bubble going to occur? In my opinion, two asset classes stand out as asset bubble candidates: grains and Asian assets.
Wheat and corn have led the grain and agricultural commodities price advance over the last two months. But now, it is very likely that the entire sector including especially soybeans, sugar, coffee, and cattle, will follow. Other 'bubble candidates', are Asian currencies, stocks, and real estate prices.
The Dow Jones all time high and the coming correction!
Overall, most stock markets and financial assets are over-bought, investors are very complacent and relaxed, bullish sentiment is high, and volatility is very low.
Thursday, November 23 - 2006 at 08:07
In short a combination of factors that has usually led to a sharp correction (1987) or a serious bear market (1973/74)). And whereas I think that stock markets could still make a new high into early next year, the majority of equities may already have peaked out.
As a contrarian, I would therefore now rather be short the S&P 500 than maintain long positions. The expected Fed fund rate cuts have probably already been largely discounted by the stock market.
Listening to CNBC on the days before and after the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally broke out to a new all time high I thought that a milestone in the history of mankind had occurred. In fact, I do not quite see what there is to celebrate about the Dow Jones' new high. Despite an unprecedented money and credit expansion since late 1999, US stocks and bonds have performed poorly against just about any other asset in the world.
Fed support
But why do I mention this? Simply because the notion among investors has again arisen that the Fed will soon cut interest rates and support the economy and asset markets with monetary policy measures. I believe that, sooner or later, this scenario is very likely, but instead of boosting the real economy and asset prices in the US, it will lift precious metals, commodities and foreign assets further.
Now, let us consider the following: The Fed knows that the Japanese problem in the 1990s arose out of the leveraged real estate and stock market bubble. Under Mr. Volcker (a hawk), a tight monetary policy with some form of credit controls (increase in margin requirements) would have beeen used in order to prevent the bubble getting out of hand.
But in the monetary philosophy of Mr. Greenspan and Mr. Bernanke, a bubble is never a problem. However, if the bubble bursts, a problem might arise - as was the case in Japan in the 1990s and in the US in 1929/32. So, the central bank must immediately provide enough liquidity to the system in order to prevent the bursting of the bubble having a negative impact on the economy!
Bubble trouble
I hope that everybody understands that this is in the long run a suicidal monetary policy because it leads to one asset bubble after another. So, after the NASDAQ in 2000 and housing in 2005/2006, where is the next big bubble going to occur? In my opinion, two asset classes stand out as asset bubble candidates: grains and Asian assets.
Wheat and corn have led the grain and agricultural commodities price advance over the last two months. But now, it is very likely that the entire sector including especially soybeans, sugar, coffee, and cattle, will follow. Other 'bubble candidates', are Asian currencies, stocks, and real estate prices.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
cià avucat , ocio che sarai convocato a breve prego leggere incresciosa news qualche pagina dietro 
sti merikani son dei zuzzerelloni, beh almeno sta montando la VOLA
lucignoloooooo
spè che ci lascio pure il commentino raffinato di prassi 
sti merikani son dei zuzzerelloni, beh almeno sta montando la VOLA
lucignoloooooo
spè che ci lascio pure il commentino raffinato di prassi 
giomf
Forumer storico
Andrea 53 ha scritto:Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1164383992p35034.jpg
ocio ocio
chi è questa qui . . . ?
masgui
Forumer storico
gipa69 ha scritto:
se fossi milionario sarei sempre qua a cazzeggiare.
comunque la correzione non da panico questa volta cè, ci sono dentro e la tengo aperta.
Ora cercare motivazioni varie per sperare in un crollo dei mercati, dato che siamo tutti short, ha senso fino ad un certo punto.
A mio avviso l'unico terrore finanziario abbastanza realistico sarebbe la crisi violenta e repentina del settore immobiliare americano. Li cambierebbero veramente gli scenari mondiali. Per il resto credo sia quasi tutto sopportabile. (pensierinodellasera)
buona week end a tutti
f4f
翠鸟科
Fleursdumal ha scritto:cià avucat , ocio che sarai convocato a breve prego leggere incresciosa news qualche pagina dietro
sti merikani son dei zuzzerelloni, beh almeno sta montando la VOLA
lucignoloooooo
nema problèma tovarisch
ti porto io la colazione al poolnio 212 ... o al berio 515 ...
simm' in itaglia
facimm' ò cafè chez sindonà
monta la vola col ribbasso, as said before
vedimm lunedì, se fa segno meno il ribassino correttivo ci sta ci sta
( dan... fino alla mama?, la fama l'è gia bucata)
se riprende la fama, me accatto le call .... son troppo forti questi ....
ci penzo zu
ciao bbbanda
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