Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
ucci ucci qui c'è aria di long sul crude
Bush: necessarie conseguenze se Iran ignora Consiglio Sicurezza (DJ)
Bush: necessarie conseguenze se Iran ignora Consiglio Sicurezza (DJ)
Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE Tbond,Tnote,Bund&CO-giu/lug2006: fuga dai Bonds (vm18)
- Creatore Discussione f4f
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
azz da quando ho postato nn si è mosso un mm da 72,5 
autoprr , a 72,25 esco e pace 
autoprr , a 72,25 esco e pace 
ditropan
Forumer storico
gastronomo ha scritto:Ho paura a chiederti quanti te ne sei già shortati...
Poca roba ... solo 120 cinque Years note e 40 T-bronx ...
Fleursdumal ha scritto:ho già pronto il bastone per cazziarlo
ma non ti eri preso una pausa ?
holas ai 2 bbanditi !
... dopo 2 minuti che guardo il monitor mi sono già rotto les pelotas e vado a farmi una birrozza 
... a doppio. 
ditropan
Forumer storico
bobusina ha scritto:ciao sior Andrea, non mi saluti più?
.. a te dò un bacione speciale !!!
... ci mancherebbe altro !!!
... perdonatemi ma in questi giorni sono veramente poco presente, al più di passaggio ... i lavori nella casa mi tengono parecchio impegato. 
... indi per cui ... veramente poco trading.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
ah finalmente fuori con uno a 73 , tengo uno con trail qualche tick sopra l'entrata
alpin vaadarvialeciap
alpin vaadarvialeciap
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Fleursdumal ha scritto:ah finalmente fuori con uno a 73 , tengo uno con trail qualche tick sopra l'entrata
alpin vaadarvialeciap
Brau
Investment Strategy
by Jeffrey Saut
Continuity of Thought
Bernard Baruch in his autobiography Baruch: My Own Story discusses “the curious psychology of crowds which has been demonstrated again and again in history.” He refers to Charles MacKay’s book Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds as:
“. . . a remarkable documentation of the unbelievable crazes that have swept mankind down through the ages. No nation has been immune to these frenzies. The supposedly stolid Dutch were overcome by the Tulip Craze, the volatile French had their Mississippi Bubble, while the sturdy English had their South Sea Bubble.
“As I read the accounts of these madnesses, I was tempted to shout, ‘This cannot have happened!’ Yet within my own lifetime I have seen similar deliriums in the Florida land boom of the 1920’s and the stock-market speculation that led to the 1929 crash. Something of this same crowd madness may have been at least partially responsible for Hitler’s rise to power in Germany.
“These crowd madnesses recur so frequently in human history that they must reflect some deeply rooted trait of human nature. Perhaps it is the same kind of force that motivates the migrations of birds or the mass performance of a whole species of ocean eels. There seems to be a cyclical rhythm in these movements. A bull market, for example, will be sweeping along and then something will happen – trivial or important – and first one man will sell and then others will sell and the continuity of thought toward higher prices is broken.
“ ‘Continuity of thought’ – what a wonderful expression that is. It did not originate with me. The first time I heard it was while I was operating in a steel stock which J.P. Morgan was trying to accumulate. The general market was on the rise. Then, while these operations were going on, the stock of Rock Island broke. At the time I happened to be with Middleton Burrill, who remarked, ‘That collapse is going to break the continuity of bullish thought.’ I had never heard the expression before, but I saw at once that Burrill was right and even though Steel was being supported by the Morgans, I sold and took my profits.”
The question we pose today is – will the ongoing collapse of real estate “break the continuity of bullish thought” not only for homeowners, but for the economy and the stock market as well? You say, “Isn’t collapse too harsh a word?” Well, where you stand is a function of where you sit, and from our “perch” here in Florida, the situation looks bleak. And Florida is interesting because Florida led us into the real estate bubble punctuated by the building of more condominiums than I have seen since the great Atlanta “condo bust” of 1974/1975. Consequently, Florida is a pretty good prism for what is occurring on the “coasts,” as well as some of the previously “hot” real estate markets like Las Vegas, Phoenix, Washington, D.C., etc. So what is going on in Florida?
According to our real estate team, during the month of June, Florida existing home sales fell 29% year-over-year. Notable declines included Naples (-48%), Sarasota-Bradenton (-40%), Daytona Beach (-39%), West Palm Beach-Boca Raton (-39%), and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (-34%). Further demonstrating the market’s weakness, the single-family statewide median sales price of $257,800 exceeded the median price a year ago by only 3%, with markets such as Fort Myers-Cape Coral (-5%), Panama City (-10%), and Sarasota-Bradenton (-3%) showing year/year sales price declines. Additionally, Florida condominium sales declined 35% year/year to 5,241 units, with 12 of the 20 metro areas posting double-digit declines. The weakest markets were Punta Gorda (-97%), Fort Myers-Cape Coral (-66%), Naples (-48%), Sarasota-Bradenton (-48%), and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (-47%). Moreover, the median condominium price during the month was $212,500, a 1% decline versus the period a year ago, although nine markets reported year/year declines in median prices. Notable weakness was cited in Fort Walton Beach (-42%), Daytona Beach (-14%), Panama City (-12%), Jacksonville (-9%), Fort Myers-Cape Coral (-7%), and Orlando (-4%).
Regrettably, we can only envision this “homesick” environment getting worse, amplified by the $2.7 trillion worth of adjustable rate mortgages (ARMS) that will reset at a higher interest rate in 2006/2007. This comes on top of the fact that 10% of all home owners with mortgages have no equity in their houses, while 15% of the 2005 home buyers owe at least 10% more than their home is worth. Indeed, the “fancy financing” of the last six years is coming home to roost as reflected in Washington Mutual’s (WM/$44.05) annual report. As reprised in Barron’s:
“At the end of 2003, 1% of WaMu’s option ARMS were in negative amortization (payments were not covering the interest charges, so the shortfall was added to principal). At the end of 2004, the percentage jumped to 21%. At the end of 2005, the percentage jumped again to 47%. By value of loans, the percentage was 55%. . . . Negative amortization and other short-term loans on long-term assets don’t work because eventually too many borrowers are unable to pay the loans down – or unwilling to keep paying for an asset that has declined in value relative to their outstanding balance. Even a relative brief period of rising mortgage payments, rising debt and falling home values will collapse the system. And when the housing-finance system goes, the rest of the economy will go with it.”
So yeah, we think what is occurring in real estate has far reaching implications for the economy since for the past few years real estate has been responsible for much of the nation’s job growth. Moreover, as the good folks at the Liscio Report note (again from Barron’s):
“Each dollar spent on residential construction generates $1.27 in additional economic activity. That’s topped only by manufacturing ($1.37) and handily bests the contribution of healthcare (54 to 81 cents, depending on which part of the amorphous field you’re talking about), retail (57 cents), and finance (53 cents). Not only [has] the kick from housing . . . been enormously important in recent years . . . but, the actual effect has been far greater since that $1.27 of additional economic thrust doesn’t include the hardly inconsequential economic stimulus of remodeling or mortgage-equity withdrawal. Housing’s fade seems destined to hurt all the more since nothing else – not capital spending or government largess – seems primed to take up the slack.”
So to reiterate, we think what is going on in the real estate market currently has VERY significant ramifications for the economy, as well as the stock market. Last week, however, stocks didn’t seem to care as the option expiration induced week left most of the indices we follow 3%-to-6% higher and once again positive on the year. Interestingly, while the S&P 500 and D-J Industrial Average broke out above their respective June/July reaction highs, many of the other indices did not. Also of note is that last week’s rally was led by the hitherto lagging tech stocks rather than the previous market leaders, causing one Wall Street wag to lament, “When they run the laggards the overall rally is long of tooth.”
Nevertheless, in this business what you see is what you get, and despite a number of upside non-confirmations by various other indexes, and the low volume, the S&P 500 broke out above the 1290 – 1296 zone that we thought would contain any rally attempt. That breakout can be seen in the nearby chart from the invaluable service www.thechartstore.com. The question then becomes, “Breakout or fake-out?!” If it is a legitimate breakout, the near-term target should be the May highs at 1326, yet we remain skeptical.
The call for this week: Surprisingly, China raised interest rates on Friday to over 6% (6.12%) as the worldwide “rate ratchet” continues. Also of surprise are rumors this morning that major terrorist tactics are planned for the Iranian ultimatum (August 22), all of which has the pre-opening futures lower (-4 points basis the S&P 500). Meanwhile, this week’s housing report should shed further light on our “homesick” thesis as we continue to contemplate if this is just a mid-cycle slowdown or something worse. For those of you who believe last week was a breakout, and not a fake-out, we suggest considering Budd Bugatch’s upgrade this morning on 3.2% yielding Furniture Brands (FBN/$19.80/Strong Buy).
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Bonjour a tout les bondaroles
T-Bronx in prossimità del roll, movimenti ridotti alla soglia dei 110 con il Gilt e il Bund che stanno salendo in modo pauroso
grassie gipa, proviamo a tenere anche se mi aspettavo un movimento più repentino che non essendoci stato mi fa mantenere sullo scettico-andante
T-Bronx in prossimità del roll, movimenti ridotti alla soglia dei 110 con il Gilt e il Bund che stanno salendo in modo pauroso
grassie gipa, proviamo a tenere anche se mi aspettavo un movimento più repentino che non essendoci stato mi fa mantenere sullo scettico-andante
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
i dati di oggi
AR - Cold Storage
EU - 2Q06 Spain GDP
EU - AUG German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
EU - 2Q06 France GDP
EU - 2Q06 Spain GDP
EU - AUG German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
EU - 2Q06 France GDP
FR - 4-week bill Auction
AR - USDA World Weekly Rice Prices Weekly Survey
FR - ICSC Weekly Chain Store Sales
FR - Johnson Redbook Sales
FR - Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey
AR - Cold Storage
EU - 2Q06 Spain GDP
EU - AUG German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
EU - 2Q06 France GDP
EU - 2Q06 Spain GDP
EU - AUG German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
EU - 2Q06 France GDP
FR - 4-week bill Auction
AR - USDA World Weekly Rice Prices Weekly Survey
FR - ICSC Weekly Chain Store Sales
FR - Johnson Redbook Sales
FR - Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Wednesday August 23, 1:03 AM
Guynn: Fed has learned from 1970s inflation
By Matthew Bigg
ATLANTA (Reuters) - Outgoing Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Jack Guynn said on Tuesday the U.S. central bank has learned it is not wise to tolerate higher inflation in the hope of getting faster economic growth.
"I'm leaving the FOMC confident in the Fed's commitment to keep inflation at bay," Guynn told the Kiwanis Club of Atlanta. "I'm sure future policymakers will remember the lessons we learned in the past 40 years about what happens when you start down the slippery slope of trading inflation for growth."
Referring to the oil price shocks of the 1970s, he added: "As we should now know, a bit of inflation can get out of hand quickly, especially when consumers and businesses expect more price increases, waste time and effort trying to beat inflation, and then rush to spend more money in a vicious inflationary cycle."
Guynn, who has been among the voters this year on the interest-rate setting Federal Open Market Committee, has announced he is retiring on October 1. If no replacement is named by then, his duties would be assumed on an interim basis by the regional Fed bank's No. 2, Patrick Barron.
Guynn's speech -- likely the final one in his tenure -- did not directly address the outlook for U.S. interest rates or the economy. Instead, it offered a broad overview of changes that have taken place in the financial and economic landscape since he first came to work at the Atlanta Fed in 1964.
However, Fed policy-makers have said the lessons of the 1970s remain germane at a time they are grappling with how to respond to the double-edged sword of lofty energy prices, which push up inflation and weigh on economic growth.
After a string of 17 straight interest-rate increases dating to June 2004, the Fed held rates steady at its last meeting on August 8, saying inflation pressures should ease.
The Atlanta Fed chief, who joined the ranks of Fed policy-makers in January 1996, said in an increasingly inter-connected world, the U.S. economy will grow more dependent on actions elsewhere.
"With the emergence of China and India and increasing U.S. indebtedness, the global flow of funds will continue to grow, and our economy will depend more and more on events and decisions that occur outside our national borders," he said.
Guynn also reflected on the increased transparency at the U.S. central bank during his tenure and said further changes were likely.
"I expect the Fed will keep trying new and different ways to communicate important views and actions, including perhaps establishing targets for acceptable levels of inflation," he said. "Clearly, more central bank communications are helpful, but there is ample room to debate how to reflect the range of views and uncertainties that are inherent in the policymaking process."
Guynn said the rapid changes advancing technology had brought about in banking had been "a major part of our nation's economic success," even though he expressed some concern about "the sheer size of some financial institutions," and the possibility homeowners might not always full understand new mortgage products, like interest-only loans.
Looking to the future, he said the U.S. economy was well positioned.
"For a long time, I've enjoyed an up close and personal view on banking and the economy, and pretty soon I'll be watching from the bleachers," Guynn said. "Looking ahead to the next four decades, I think we all have good reason to expect our financial system and our economy will remain strong and continue to be the envy of the rest of the world."
Guynn: Fed has learned from 1970s inflation
By Matthew Bigg
ATLANTA (Reuters) - Outgoing Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Jack Guynn said on Tuesday the U.S. central bank has learned it is not wise to tolerate higher inflation in the hope of getting faster economic growth.
"I'm leaving the FOMC confident in the Fed's commitment to keep inflation at bay," Guynn told the Kiwanis Club of Atlanta. "I'm sure future policymakers will remember the lessons we learned in the past 40 years about what happens when you start down the slippery slope of trading inflation for growth."
Referring to the oil price shocks of the 1970s, he added: "As we should now know, a bit of inflation can get out of hand quickly, especially when consumers and businesses expect more price increases, waste time and effort trying to beat inflation, and then rush to spend more money in a vicious inflationary cycle."
Guynn, who has been among the voters this year on the interest-rate setting Federal Open Market Committee, has announced he is retiring on October 1. If no replacement is named by then, his duties would be assumed on an interim basis by the regional Fed bank's No. 2, Patrick Barron.
Guynn's speech -- likely the final one in his tenure -- did not directly address the outlook for U.S. interest rates or the economy. Instead, it offered a broad overview of changes that have taken place in the financial and economic landscape since he first came to work at the Atlanta Fed in 1964.
However, Fed policy-makers have said the lessons of the 1970s remain germane at a time they are grappling with how to respond to the double-edged sword of lofty energy prices, which push up inflation and weigh on economic growth.
After a string of 17 straight interest-rate increases dating to June 2004, the Fed held rates steady at its last meeting on August 8, saying inflation pressures should ease.
The Atlanta Fed chief, who joined the ranks of Fed policy-makers in January 1996, said in an increasingly inter-connected world, the U.S. economy will grow more dependent on actions elsewhere.
"With the emergence of China and India and increasing U.S. indebtedness, the global flow of funds will continue to grow, and our economy will depend more and more on events and decisions that occur outside our national borders," he said.
Guynn also reflected on the increased transparency at the U.S. central bank during his tenure and said further changes were likely.
"I expect the Fed will keep trying new and different ways to communicate important views and actions, including perhaps establishing targets for acceptable levels of inflation," he said. "Clearly, more central bank communications are helpful, but there is ample room to debate how to reflect the range of views and uncertainties that are inherent in the policymaking process."
Guynn said the rapid changes advancing technology had brought about in banking had been "a major part of our nation's economic success," even though he expressed some concern about "the sheer size of some financial institutions," and the possibility homeowners might not always full understand new mortgage products, like interest-only loans.
Looking to the future, he said the U.S. economy was well positioned.
"For a long time, I've enjoyed an up close and personal view on banking and the economy, and pretty soon I'll be watching from the bleachers," Guynn said. "Looking ahead to the next four decades, I think we all have good reason to expect our financial system and our economy will remain strong and continue to be the envy of the rest of the world."