TBOND-YEN-JUAN-ZLOTY-RAND-X SOLI RE-TARDS(VM 179,5) (2 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione dan24
- Data di Inizio
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
gipa69 ha scritto:
“Question: Russell, please answer this, at the January 2008 lows, stock values never came close to what we expect at a primary bear market bottom. What do you make of that?
Answer: I’ve thought about this situation, just as I thought about this same situation at the October 2002 lows. My answer is the following – neither October 2002 nor January 2008 represented a major or primary bear market bottom. Both, I believe, were important secondary or cyclical correction-bottoms within a continuing primary bull market. I see no other explanation. Remember, one of the most important Dow Theory concepts is that bear markets end with stocks at great values. Stocks were not great values in the classic sense at October 2002 or January 2008.
Question: Wait, Russell, whoa – are you telling me that we’ve been in a primary bull market ever since the early 1980s, and that we’re still in that same primary bull market?
Answer: That’s correct. That’s what I’m saying. Somewhere ahead we’re finally going to enter a true primary bear market, maybe one of the greatest and most tragic in history. That future bear market will end with something we haven’t seen since the 1980 to 1982 period, and I’m talking about great values in stocks. And when I say great values I’m talking about blue-chip stocks selling in single-digit price/earnings ratios while at the same time providing dividend yields of 6-7-8%, the kind of yields we last saw at the lows of the early 1980s.
Question: What do you think could bring stocks down to those levels? What might the market be discounting?
Answer: Here I’m only guessing, but I think it could be the dollar losing its reserve currency status. If that happens, the US would no longer possess the incredible and singular privilege of printing the same money in which it is indebted. In other words, the dollar would no longer be accepted by the rest of the world as the reserve currency. And the US could no longer print itself into solvency.
Question: Russell, to get back to your previous statement, you said that we are still in a primary bull market – the same one that started from the lows of the early 1980s. If that’s correct, if we’re still in a bull market, then almost by definition shouldn’t we see new highs in the major stock averages somewhere ahead?
Answer: Strange, almost impossible as that may seem, yes I think there’s a definite chance that somewhere between 2008 and 2010 we will see new highs in the major Averages. The stock market occasionally does the totally unexpected, and you can put ‘new highs’ in the major stock averages on that list.
Consider the following – pessimism has now enveloped almost the entire nation. Estimates of home foreclosures are running into the millions of units. The American consumer is buried in debt and stranded with little or no savings. Manufacturing is slowing down in the US. Leading analysts are competing with each other with bearish forecasts. People are calling the Fed impotent or even helpless in the face of the enormity of the problems we face. On top of everything else, the unfunded liabilities in Medicare and Social Security are running into the multi-trillions of dollars. The presidential candidates do not even want to talk about the nation’s potential liabilities. And on top of everything else, we’re mired in one of the longest and most expensive wars in US history.
Yet slowly, almost imperceptibly, the major stock averages have been building huge bases. Since January 22, the majority of stocks have stopped going down – in fact, they’ve been rising.
In the face of these improving market conditions, the short interest on the NYSE continues to build. The latest statistics, covering the latest two-week period to March 31, show that the short interest on the NYSE has risen to an all-time record high of 16.142 million shares sold short. If I’m correct, if we have concluded a correction in an ongoing bull market, then this is an explosive situation with a record number of shorts locked in on the wrong side of the market. As the market slowly builds strength, these shorts will be forced to cover.
Question: Russell, what kind of fundamentals would you expect to accompany a resumption of the primary bull market?
Answer: An incredible amount of fiat paper (currencies) is being injected into the world markets. There’s also a mind-numbing amount of currency on the sidelines. There is more than $3.5 trillion parked in money market funds in the US. Trillions of dollars are now lodged in the so-called sovereign wealth funds. Arab coffers are bulging with dollars waiting to be spent. I’ve yet to see a figure covering all the currencies that are parked in banks, equity funds, mutual funds, pension funds, and in private hands. The sum total must be almost beyond belief.
Ironically, the longer this recession or whatever you want to call it lasts, the more money will be pumped into both the US and the world economies. Here in the US it now requires over five dollars in debt to generate one dollar of GDP. The creation of new money is massive, with the Fed and world central banks running the printing presses overtime as they seek to ward off recession and bring back prosperity.
Once it is recognized that we are in a bull market and that the market is headed considerably higher, a goodly percentage of this money is going to pour into the various stock markets of the world. The result should be a bull market speculative phase of epic proportions.”
And that, according to the venerable R man, is the lie of the investment land.
dan24
Forumer storico
la cosa si sta mettendo male...se ieri era pullback su un trend di breve Up e correttivo del movimento ribassista di medio...oggi se rompono i minimi e continuano nella discesa..inizierei ad aver dubbi sulla tenuta...
minkia cmq...movimento violento veramente...
la recessione se si espande a tutti i settori...son quazzi da pelare..
minkia cmq...movimento violento veramente...
la recessione se si espande a tutti i settori...son quazzi da pelare..
dan24
Forumer storico
Andrea 53 ha scritto:Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.net/forum/immagini/1207912744bears.jpg
vado a fare compere
ciao Andrea
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
dan24 ha scritto:
Non è detto... dipende da come reagiranno i mercati a questo soprattutto commodities e credito.
per me si va a fare un minimo ma leggermente superiore ai precedenti (un 4% più alto circa sullo spoore) quindi area 1320/1330 e poi la fase di recupero riprende....
però le commodities devono chiudere questa costruzione di top di medio che stanno mettendo in piedi da diverso tempo ma al momento tranne vari passaggi di consegne tra agricole industriali preziosi ed energetici non hanno stornato nel complesso.
perchè se non la chiudono allora la situazione si deteriorerebbe significativamente davvero.
dan24
Forumer storico
gipa69 ha scritto:
che le commodities si cappottino in breve tempo ci credo ben poco...vedi crudo...che ad ogni tentativo di storno si fanno nuovi max legati alla svalutazione del dollaro..
se la stagione degli utili è pessima non penso che i mercati riusciranno a mantenersi su questi livelli.....oltre a possibili nuove sorprese....
cmq....
quicksilver
Forumer storico
comunque tutte scuse quelle di GE
queste cose succedevano al massimo con intel o nokia, GE non la guarda nessuno
ma in ogni caso ho l'impressione che abbiamo davanti un momento che graficamente è molto importante
queste cose succedevano al massimo con intel o nokia, GE non la guarda nessuno
ma in ogni caso ho l'impressione che abbiamo davanti un momento che graficamente è molto importante
Andrea 53
Forumer storico
f4f ha scritto:impressionante davvero
era un pò che la cosa mi pareva spinta
ed ero long 'regolato' ma obtorto collo
e il tempismo di regolo è .... assurdo ....
non è detto , magari oggi la fiducia MICHIGAN è alle stelle e tornano positivi , dopo aver gabbato i venditori di PUT ed averli costretti a ricoprirsi , mancano 5 giorni alle scadenze di aprile
poi ieri sera ho visto il film con Will smith e Gene Hackman e tutto mi pare possibile se dietro ci sono i poteri forti