Tempo a Milano - Cap. 2 (2 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione wasabi79
- Data di Inizio
iulius
Forumer storico
E' vero e non è una bella situazione.
andgui
Forumer storico
iulius
Forumer storico
andgui
Forumer storico
Tradotto in italiano ?
Quando si raggiunge il massimo dell'ottimismo inizia la discesa e col massimo del pessimismo si sale.
E questo è il succo, se vuoi saperne di più:
This is a truly incredible chart and one that I frequently look at.
The chart proves what we have long known: that we need to the opposite of everybody else - because everybody else (or the "herd") is usually on the wrong side of the market.
When everyone is extremely optimistic on the stock market (see red circles), this is usually when markets form a top. And when everyone gets extremely pessimistic (see green circles), this is usually close to a market bottom.
As you can see, at the start of June and last week, the sentiment (or "emotional temperature") of the masses was extremely bullish on stocks. Talks of a "melt up" in the stock market was at an extreme high.
Soon enough we saw a drop in the S&P 500 - the index of the 500 largest companies in the world.
However, at the start of this week, you can see that the sentiment had gone the other way: on Tuesday it had fallen to an extreme low (or extreme pessimism).
This is a bullish sign, and we saw the stock markets do the opposite - by rallying yesterday.
This makes me believe that there is likely more upside in the stock markets. As long as the "dumb money" sentiment remains bearish, we could see 2470 to 2500 in the S&P 500.
However, if we do get close to 2500 on the S&P, we need to be careful because that is when public opinion sentiment is likely to be extremely optimistic - and hence a contrarian signal.
By the way, this is precisely what happened with the British Pound (GBPUSD) after the UK election. The Pound dropped significantly, public opinion turned against the currency, and in our premium service we used this as an opportunity to go long on the GBPUSD at the start of this week. We are now sitting in nice gains on our contrarian trade.
andgui.