Obbligazioni valute high yield TURCHIA bond in usd e lira turca

[pietro17elettra]

Turkish banking watchdog files complaint against ex-cenbank head - source 27/12/2021 13:54 - RSF
ISTANBUL, Dec 27 (Reuters) - Turkey's BDDK banking watchdog filed a criminal complaint against five people, including a former central bank governor, over comments which it said violated banking regulations, a banking watchdog source and state media said on Monday.

The sources said those named in the complaint were two opposition politicians - including ex-central bank governor Durmus Yilmaz from the Iyi Party - two economists and a journalist.

The regulation they are accused of violating concerns the spreading via public channels of "unfounded claims that can harm or tarnish the reputation of a bank".

It was not clear which specific comments triggered the complaint. Yilmaz, who was governor between 2006 and 2011, was not immediately available to comment on the allegation.

The lira currency plummeted to record lows this month on widespread concerns about Turkey's monetary policy. It surged some 50% last week after forex market intervention and the announcement of a lira deposits protection plan, but remains 35% weaker than a year ago.

(Reporting by Ebru Tuncay Writing by Ezgi Erkoyun Editing by Daren Butler)
(([email protected]; +90-212-350 7051; Reuters Messaging: [email protected])

 

[breni]

In parole povere il rendimento del cambio €/valuta locale può essere così negativo da mangiarsi quello del capitale investito e della cedola (netto tasse).
Ma se uno vuole speculare sul breve vanno benissimo, meglio di tanti ETF/ETC (ETP) - per forza di cose meno trasparenti - che magari nemmeno esistono per quel determinato cambio.

Direi di sì. Tendenzialmente (in realtà solo sotto alcune ipotesi che non si realizzano mai completamente) la svalutazione della valuta segue l'inflazione, o meglio, la differenza di inflazione tra paesi. Se un paese ha ora inflazione al 22% (e tassi al 14), puoi aspettarti che più o meno la valuta perda un 18% rispetto all'euro, ove l'inflazione è al 4% circa. Per comprare bond try dovresti chiedere un rendimento del 18% + un certo premio per il rischio e se guardi oggi il rendimento ad esempio di questo: XS1115184753... fineco mi dà un 19,3% di rendimento. A me pare ancora troppo poco per un acquisto "da cassettista"; lo si potrà magari prendere in momenti particolari sperando appunto di azzeccare il momento.E nota che questo rendimento è quello che hai dopo che Erdogan ha appunto fatto la sua mossa erogando le garanzie sul rendimento, una scelta per alcuni aspetti simile ad un incremento dei tassi.
Scelte, quelle di Erdogan, secondo me realizzate in maniera frettolosa, con una rivalutazione della lira assolutamente eccessiva, come già scrivevo giorni fa. Già oggi la lira perde un 8% sull'euro, quella garanzia sui depositi rischia di esser parecchio onerosa, se molti hanno aderito con una lira eccessivamente rivalutata per via delle mosse della bc nei giorni scorsi. Scelte avventate, frettolose che potrebbero aver un costo significativo...o perlomeno richiedere tempestive correzioni

 

[m.m.f]

Direi di sì. Tendenzialmente (in realtà solo sotto alcune ipotesi che non si realizzano mai completamente) la svalutazione della valuta segue l'inflazione, o meglio, la differenza di inflazione tra paesi. Se un paese ha ora inflazione al 22% (e tassi al 14), puoi aspettarti che più o meno la valuta perda un 18% rispetto all'euro, ove l'inflazione è al 4% circa. Per comprare bond try dovresti chiedere un rendimento del 18% + un certo premio per il rischio e se guardi oggi il rendimento ad esempio di questo: XS1115184753... fineco mi dà un 19,3% di rendimento. A me pare ancora troppo poco per un acquisto "da cassettista"; lo si potrà magari prendere in momenti particolari sperando appunto di azzeccare il momento.E nota che questo rendimento è quello che hai dopo che Erdogan ha appunto fatto la sua mossa erogando le garanzie sul rendimento, una scelta per alcuni aspetti simile ad un incremento dei tassi.
Scelte, quelle di Erdogan, secondo me realizzate in maniera frettolosa, con una rivalutazione della lira assolutamente eccessiva, come già scrivevo giorni fa. Già oggi la lira perde un 8% sull'euro, quella garanzia sui depositi rischia di esser parecchio onerosa, se molti hanno aderito con una lira eccessivamente rivalutata per via delle mosse della bc nei giorni scorsi. Scelte avventate, frettolose che potrebbero aver un costo significativo...o perlomeno richiedere tempestive correzioni

...ma infatti questa nuova genialata erdoganiana non convince nessuno.Dura poco....

 

[FNAIOS]

Direi di sì. Tendenzialmente (in realtà solo sotto alcune ipotesi che non si realizzano mai completamente) la svalutazione della valuta segue l'inflazione, o meglio, la differenza di inflazione tra paesi. Se un paese ha ora inflazione al 22% (e tassi al 14), puoi aspettarti che più o meno la valuta perda un 18% rispetto all'euro, ove l'inflazione è al 4% circa. Per comprare bond try dovresti chiedere un rendimento del 18% + un certo premio per il rischio e se guardi oggi il rendimento ad esempio di questo: XS1115184753... fineco mi dà un 19,3% di rendimento. A me pare ancora troppo poco per un acquisto "da cassettista"; lo si potrà magari prendere in momenti particolari sperando appunto di azzeccare il momento.E nota che questo rendimento è quello che hai dopo che Erdogan ha appunto fatto la sua mossa erogando le garanzie sul rendimento, una scelta per alcuni aspetti simile ad un incremento dei tassi.
Scelte, quelle di Erdogan, secondo me realizzate in maniera frettolosa, con una rivalutazione della lira assolutamente eccessiva, come già scrivevo giorni fa. Già oggi la lira perde un 8% sull'euro, quella garanzia sui depositi rischia di esser parecchio onerosa, se molti hanno aderito con una lira eccessivamente rivalutata per via delle mosse della bc nei giorni scorsi. Scelte avventate, frettolose che potrebbero aver un costo significativo...o perlomeno richiedere tempestive correzioni

Una obbligazione ad alta volatilità (a causa del cambio o altre cose) non può per definizione essere strumento da cassettista (se per cassettista si intende un profilo a rischio basso) perché volatilità=rischio. E che il rischio sia alto si vede anche dal rendimento, 20%.
Certo, se ci investi poco limiti il rendimento, quindi anche il rischio, allora può diventare da "cassettista".
Tra l'altro anche quelle che si comprano a 90/100£, in € il prezzo ricorda molto quelle targate D.

 

[pietro17elettra]

Turkish lira weakens, further eroding last week's gains 28/12/2021 09:27 - RSF
* Lira 37% weaker against dollar this year despite rebound
* Central bank gives fresh details on lira deposits scheme
* Finance minister says no interventions on night scheme unveiled

By Nevzat Devranoglu
ANKARA, Dec 28 (Reuters) - Turkey's lira weakened as much as 2% on Tuesday, extending sharp losses seen a day earlier and eroding massive gains made last week, as worries about the country's monetary policy weighed further on sentiment.

At 0800 GMT, the lira was 1.7% weaker at 11.9 to the dollar, having touched a low of 11.949 earlier. Despite staging a huge rebound last week, it has lost 37% of its value against the U.S. currency so far this year.

The lira surged more than 50% last week following billions of dollars worth of state-backed market interventions and a government move to cover FX losses on certain deposits, bringing the currency back to its mid-November levels.

President Tayyip Erdogan announced last week an incentive for savers to convert forex deposits into lira, under which the Treasury and Central Bank will reimburse losses incurred due to an erosion in lira value during the deposit period. (news)

According to a central bank document sent to banks on Monday it will support these forex-protected lira deposit accounts by not applying required reserve ratios on them. It will impose a higher commission on banks where the transfer from forex accounts to lira accounts does not exceed a certain level.

The lira hit an all-time low of 18.4 to the dollar before Erdogan's announcement, after a months-long slide prompted by fears of spiralling inflation following a series of interest rate cuts that the president had sought.

Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati said late on Monday that Turkey's state banks and institutions did not sell dollars on the night that Erdogan made his announcement.

According to traders' calculations, the central bank's net forex reserves excluding swaps fell some $8 billion last week, with most of the fall in the first two days of the week. They were down $17-18 billion as of last Friday since the start of the month, when the bank began its direct interventions.

Turks did not sell dollars in large quantities on Monday and Tuesday of last week, according to official data that suggested they had played little role in the gains.

The central bank has slashed its policy rates by 500 basis points to 14% since September, despite inflation that has risen to more than 21%. Economists expect inflation to exceed 30% next year in part due to the lira depreciation.

(Reporting by Nevzat Devranoglu Writing by Daren Butler Editing by Ece Toksabay and Gareth Jones)
(([email protected]; +90-212-350 7053; Reuters Messaging: [email protected]))

 

[FNAIOS]

...

Sfrutticchiato il movimento e poi uscito.
Prima entrato sul movimento, poi letto il motivo.

 

[pietro17elettra]

Erdogan may cash in on economy steps with early election, analysts say 29/12/2021 13:21 - RSF
* Presidential, parliamentary polls scheduled for 2023
* Lira's 40% slide this year has eroded Turks' earnings
* Erdogan's AK Party has been in power since 2002

By Birsen Altayli and Orhan Coskun
ISTANBUL, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan has effectively opened the door to early elections, political analysts said, after two big recent announcements - a 50% rise in the minimum wage and a deposit-protection scheme that arrested a currency crash.

The announcements came within five days of each other as a grinding currency crisis hit a peak on Dec. 20 when the lira tanked to a record low of 18.4 to the dollar, deeply rattling the economy and households.

Erdogan and senior officials from his ruling AK Party (AKP) have repeatedly dismissed the idea of presidential and parliamentary elections being held before schedule in mid-2023.

But the 2022 wage relief and the sharp turnaround in the lira - rallying to 12 per dollar - suggest Erdogan may want to act soon, after a long slide in his opinion poll ratings.

Analysts said his announcements echo past pre-election gambits to prove his leadership credentials. A snap poll could wrongfoot the opposition coalition, which has not yet agreed on a presidential candidate.

"The decisions have ... given the impression that the AK Party and Erdogan are excellent managers of the economy," said Mehmet Ali Kulat, chairman of MAK Consulting.

"For Erdogan, a 'last minute' success story emerges before every election," he said. "We see that this process will be presented as a political leader who beat the dollar and disrupted the game of foreign powers."
However, the message's effectiveness will depend on the direction of the lira and inflation, and their impact on Turks who have seen their spending power slashed.


"POSITIVE MOMENTUM"
To boost the lira, Erdogan announced a scheme in which the state protects converted lira deposits against future depreciation losses versus hard currencies.

With the help of state-backed market interventions, the move halted a currency slide brought on by Erdogan's own unorthodox policy of slashing interest rates despite inflation seen hitting 30% this month.

Yet the scheme risks further driving up prices and the fiscal debt in the months ahead, economists say.

Omer Taspinar, a Turkey expert at Brookings and professor at National Defense University, said Erdogan is "already following election politics" by raising citizens' purchasing power.

"To stop the bleeding, he practically indexed the value of bank accounts in domestic currency to the dollar," he said.

"These are all aimed at creating positive momentum before he calls early elections."
Years of double-digit inflation and depreciation have eaten into Turks' earnings, lifting Erdogan's disapproval rating to levels last hit in 2015, according to a MetroPoll survey conducted this month.

Other polls show he would lose in a runoff against some likely opposition candidates.

"The election economy is being implemented", said Metropoll Chairman Ozer Sencar, adding that fiscal support could help win over undecided AKP voters.

"The idea that Erdogan 'the chief' can solve this problem will become widespread," he said. "I call the election imminent.

Three months later we will see the valuation of money that people get will become meaningless. If Erdogan waits a year for the election, he could lose."
Erdogan has dismissed the idea of early polls, which opposition leaders want so they can reverse his "new economic programme" focused on exports, credit and low rates.

"The election is not on the agenda. It is planned for 2023," an AKP official told Reuters, noting that morale rose in the party and Turkey over the last week. "There will be new steps that will relieve other segments of society."
Another senior AKP official said the long-term effects of the steps would boost its support.

"The panic atmosphere in the country has gone. Now we will calmly continue to take the right steps," the official said.

(Writing by Birsen Altayli; Editing by Jonathan Spicer, Daren Butler and Hugh Lawson)
(([email protected]; +90-212-3507056; Reuters Messaging: [email protected]))

 

[pietro17elettra]

UPDATE 3-Turkey's lira slides 5%; cenbank says it will monitor forex risks 29/12/2021 14:19 - RSF
* Lira has weakened 14% since end of last week
* Central bank to reassess policy framework in Q1
* Inflation expected to have surged above 30% in December
* The bank's policy rate has been slashed to 14%

(Adds fresh losses, bonds, volatility gauges)
By Daren Butler and Nevzat Devranoglu
ISTANBUL, Dec 29 (Reuters) - The Turkish lira weakened for the third consecutive day on Wednesday, tumbling 5.6% and eating further into the huge gains made the previous week, as worries persisted over soaring inflation and unorthodox monetary policy.

The losses gathered pace after little initial reaction to the central bank's (CBRT) 2022 policy document, in which it said it will monitor risks related to the foreign exchange market and do what is necessary to ensure it runs smoothly. (news)

The lira plunged as far as 12.5 by 1253 GMT.

Despite surging more than 50% last week following state-backed market interventions, it has lost 40% of its value this year.

"The CBRT has no commitment to any exchange rate level and will not conduct FX buying or selling transactions to determine the level or direction of the exchange rates," the bank said.

It said it would monitor closely the impact of its policy decisions in the first quarter and "the policy framework will be reassessed in order to create a foundation for sustainable price stability."
The lira surged last week after billions of dollars worth of state-backed market interventions and a government move to cover FX losses on certain deposits, restoring the currency back to its mid-November levels.

The recovery came after President Tayyip Erdogan unveiled an incentive for savers to convert forex deposits into lira, under which their losses incurred due to any erosion in lira value during the deposit period would be reimbursed.

Hasnain Malik at Tellimer said this provided a free currency hedge to domestic savers if the lira depreciates.

"But this also implies higher quasi-fiscal costs should the credibility of this hedge or the currency weaken," he said.


INFLATION SURGE EXPECTED
The lira hit an all-time low of 18.4 to the dollar before Erdogan's announcement, after weakening for months due to fears of surging inflation following a series of interest rate cuts sought by the president.

Annual inflation is forecast to have hit 30.6% in December, a Reuters poll found, breaching the 30% level for the first time since May 2003 - six months after Erdogan's AK Party first came to power. (news)

The Turkish Treasury's benchmark 10-year bond yield climbed to a record high of 24.87% from 24.55% a day earlier. The main share index <.XU100> in Istanbul rose 2.2%.

Turkish lira implied volatility gauges - a measure of demand for options on the currency rising or falling against the dollar - held near record highs hit in recent days, data from Fenics showed.
Meanwhile, sovereign dollar bonds chalked up healthy gains, with some longer-dated issues snapping a two-day losing streak to rise as much as 1.3 cents in the dollar and trade at their highest level since mid-December, Tradeweb data showed.


According to traders' calculations, the central bank's net forex reserves, excluding swaps, fell some $8 billion last week, with most of the fall in the first two days of the week. They were down $17-$18 billion as of last Friday since the start of the month, when the bank began its direct interventions.

The central bank has cut its policy rate by 500 basis points to 14% since September.

(Additional reporting by Ece Toksabay, Tuvan Gumrukcu and Karin Strohecker in London; Editing by Jonathan Spicer and Hugh Lawson)
(([email protected]; +90-212-350 7053; Reuters Messaging: [email protected]))

 

[breni]

Una obbligazione ad alta volatilità (a causa del cambio o altre cose) non può per definizione essere strumento da cassettista (se per cassettista si intende un profilo a rischio basso) perché volatilità=rischio. E che il rischio sia alto si vede anche dal rendimento, 20%.
Certo, se ci investi poco limiti il rendimento, quindi anche il rischio, allora può diventare da "cassettista".
Tra l'altro anche quelle che si comprano a 90/100£, in € il prezzo ricorda molto quelle targate D.

per ora non vi ho messo un euro, in futuro, si vedrà

 

[Jsvmax79]

Turkish Lira Resumes Slide Days After Government Rescue Plan

The lira fell more than 6% against the dollar, undoing part of the currency’s significant comeback since last week.

www.wsj.com