Bene cosi. Io penso proprio di darlene tutte In opa. Ci perdo qualche cosa, Ma va bene Lo stesso
Ieri Moody's ha fatto una PR su Dexia CL. Secondo me le LT2 non sono a rischio.
Announcement:
Moody's maintains review for downgrade on Dexia Credit Local and Dexia Banque Internationale à Luxembourg
Global Credit Research - 01 Mar 2012
Paris, March 01, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service has today announced an extension of its review of Dexia Credit Local (DCL) and Dexia Banque Internationale à Luxembourg (DBIL). Moody's has taken several actions on the operating entities of the Dexia Group's since the announcement of its dismantling in October 2011. On 15 December 2011, the ratings of DCL and DBIL were positioned as follows :
- DCL has a bank financial strength rating (BFSR) of E+, which translates to a standalone credit assessment of B2 on Moody's long-term rating scale, and a senior long-term rating of Baa1. DCL's short-term rating of Prime-2. All ratings are on review for downgrade;
- DBIL has a BFSR of D, on review with direction uncertain, translating to a standalone credit assessment of Ba2 on Moody's long-term rating scale, and a senior long-term rating of Baa1, on review for downgrade. DBIL's short-term rating of Prime-2 is also on review for downgrade.
Apart from the sale of Dexia Bank Belgium (rated A3 on review with direction uncertain; Prime-1 on review for downgrade; D/Ba2 on review with direction uncertain) to the Belgian State which was completed on 20 October 2011, Dexia Group is still undergoing a significant restructuring process, at the result of which DCL is expected to remain as the residual entity within the holding company Dexia S.A. (unrated). The additional state support provided recently to DCL and Dexia S.A. in the form of a guaranteed debt program with a ceiling of EUR45 billion has only been put in place on a temporary basis, and its replacement by a larger-scale definitive scheme is still expected, pending the approval of the group's restructuring plan by the European Commission.
The rating agency considers that the anticipated outcome of the restructuring, although incorporated in their current ratings to an extent reflective of the available information, are still subject to high uncertainties. While we do not expect the restructuring to be completed and the full information be available before several quarters, we nevertheless intend to conclude the reviews as soon as possible, the target date being:
- For DCL, soon after the submission of the new restructuring plan by Dexia to the European Commission scheduled by the end of March this year and;
- For DBIL, after the completion of the acquisition of the entity by Precision Capital and the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Dexia Credit Local (DCL)
The BFSR of E+, on review for downgrade, reflects (i) the entity's continued liquidity gap issues, (ii) the fact that it continues to carry the largest part of the legacy portfolio which is funded with short term resources and may involve sizeable unrealized losses , and (iii) the expected erosion of DCL's franchise in the French public finance sector. The broad lines of the future framework of the French public sector financing recently agreed upon by the French State, La Caisse des Depots et Consignations (CDC rated Aaa/Prime-1, negative), La Banque Postale (LBP unrated) and Dexia confirm our view that DCL is likely to be deprived of its core business. If left with (i) a portfolio of public sector loans that are not eligible to covered bond pools, (ii) the legacy bond portfolio and (ii) its stakes in Dexia Kommunalbank Deutschland (100%) -- the German Pfandbrief issuing entity -- , Dexia Crediop (70%) and Dexia Sabadell (60%) -- the Italian and Spanish public finance subsidiaries respectively --, we expect DCL to diminish over time.
DCL's senior long-term and short-term ratings of Baa1 and Prime-2, both on review for downgrade, continue to incorporate a significant amount of systemic uplift. While the expected decline in DCL's involvement in the French public sector finance could negatively impact the support assumptions, we believe that the current stakeholdings in Dexia Group and the large unsecured exposures of the Belgian, French and Luxembourg governments to DCL primarily through the outstanding guaranteed debt are likely to act as a strong incentive for them to avoid a default of the entity.
The achievement of the remaining steps of the Dexia Group's restructuring plan is expected to further impact DCL's creditworthiness. The rating review will therefore focus on:
(i) The disposals of Dexia Group's operating entities that are to be completed: this will determine the capital that will be ultimately available at the level of Dexia S.A., and could hence be down-streamed to DCL, the residual entity;
(ii) DCL's earnings generation capacity based on its post-restructuring perimeter: the combined effects of relatively low yield-assets and potential increase in funding costs may exert significant pressure on DCL's capacity to generate earnings, and could potentially result into a structurally loss-making situation. In such case, the entity's ability to preserve its solvency will have to be reassessed in light of the then available capital base;
(iii) The successful replacement of the temporary guaranteed debt program by the definitive guarantee scheme: we currently view the temporary program implemented in December 2011 as insufficient to cover the entire funding needs of DCL and expect the final scheme to provide a higher ceiling as well as the possibility to issue longer-tenor bonds. We will then assess whether the terms of the new program are likely to allow DCL to stabilize its funding position.
(iv) Considerations of short and long-term systemic support probabilities. Potential collateral taking by the states in exchange for the guaranty they provide in the temporary guaranteed debt program, although it is not the case today, may also impact our systemic support assumptions.
Dexia Banque Internationale a Luxembourg (DBIL)
The review with direction uncertain of DBIL's BFSR is driven by our view that:
(i) The exit of DBIL from Dexia Group may provide potential upside to its intrinsic rating. In Moody's opinion, DBIL historically has had good fundamentals on a stand-alone basis, with an established local retail franchise, a sound financial structure and good capital adequacy. A separation from the Dexia Group can be expected to relieve it from the pressure exerted by the funding needs of the group and reclaim client confidence;
(ii) The contemplated acquisition of the majority of DBIL by a new investor could potentially affect the entity's fundamentals, depending on the strategy.
DBIL's Baa1 senior long-term debt rating on review for downgrade reflects the fact that, despite placing DBIL's BFSR on review for direction uncertain, the rating agency currently sees little upside potential on the senior long-term debt rating. Although Moody's recognizes the strong involvement of the Luxembourg government in the restructuring of Dexia, the level of systemic support that will be incorporated into DBIL's senior long-term debt rating will need to be reassessed in view of the contemplated transaction announced on 20 December 2011.
The overall review will therefore focus on:
(i) The de-linkage process from the rest of the Dexia Group, both in terms of operational set-up and residual exposure to the group's entities;
(ii) The bank's financial fundamentals on a stand-alone basis and without the entities it currently owns and which will be excluded from the sale to Precision Capital (i.e. its 50% participation in both RBC Dexia Investor Services and Dexia Asset Management, the legacy bond portfolio in run-off and Dexia LdG Banque); the assessment will consider DBIL's capitalization, asset quality and the stabilization of liquidity and funding following a period of customer deposit outflows;
(iii) The sustainability of DBIL's franchise and future earnings prospects, as well as;
(iv) The strategy of Precision Capital in acquiring DBIL and the exact envisaged ownership structure, including the potential usage of a local holding company and leverage.
(v) Considerations of short and long-term support probabilities.
MAIN COMPANY EVENTS
Moody's has noted the announcement by Dexia on 10 February 2012 of the agreement in principle reached with the French State, La Caisse des Depots (CDC) and La Banque Postale (LBP) on the outline of the future financing system of the French public sector, involving:
(i) The setting-up of a joint-venture between LBP and CDC which will take over the origination of lending to the French public sector, and;
(ii) The exit of Dexia Municipal Agency (DMA) - the issuing vehicle of French covered bonds - from Dexia Credit Local (DCL). DMA will provide funding to the above joint-venture under the new joint ownership of the French State (31.7%), CDC (31.7%), DCL (31.7%) and LBP (4.9%). The sale price of 100% of DMA amounts to EUR380 million and will result into a loss of around EUR1 billion for the Dexia Group.
Moody's understanding is that, apart from the involvement of the French State and some technical changes in the structure of the transaction, this remains broadly in line with the project previously presented by Dexia in its press release of 20 October 2011. This transaction is part of the global restructuring that the group has been handling since the announcement of its dismantling on 10 October 2011, of which previous steps have been:
(i) The sale of Dexia Bank Belgium (DBB) to the Belgian State announced on 10 October 2011 and completed on 20 October 2011 for a consideration of EUR4 billion;
(ii) A binding agreement reached with Precision Capital, a Qatari investment group, and the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg announced on 20 December for the sale of Dexia Banque Internationale à Luxembourg (DBIL);
(iii) The implementation by Dexia S.A. and DCL at the end of December 2011 of the temporary guaranteed debt scheme agreed by the governments of Belgium, France and Luxembourg on 16 December 2011, and on which guarantee is provided on a several but not joint basis in the respective proportions of 60.5%, 36.5% and 3% for a total aggregate commitment of EUR45 billion.
The disposals that remain to be achieved as per the initially announced and subsequently amended restructuring plan include:
(i) The completion of the announced sale of DBIL by Dexia S.A.;
(ii) The completion of the announced exit of DMA from DCL;
(iii) The sale of Dexia S.A.'s stake in Denizbank, the Turkish subsidiary;
(iv) The sale of the group's 50% stake in RBC Dexia, currently owned by DBIL and expected to be temporarily carried by Dexia S.A. after the sale of DBIL is completed, and;
(v) The sale of Dexia Asset Management.
Importantly, Dexia will in Q1 2012 submit an updated restructuring plan to the European Commission for approval in compliance with state aid rules. The replacement of the temporary guaranteed debt program maturing on May 31, 2012 by a final guarantee scheme with a broader commitment amount and longer tenor - which we consider as key for DCL's future creditworthiness -- will depend on the conclusion of the European Commission.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGIES
The methodologies used in these ratings were Bank Financial Strength Ratings: Global Methodology published in February 2007, and Incorporation of Joint-Default Analysis into Moody's Bank Ratings: A Refined Methodology published in March 2007. Please see the Credit Policy page on
Moody's - credit ratings, research, tools and analysis for the global capital markets for a copy of these methodologies
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
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