Da un forum tedesco, report di MS di martedì 6/11 scorso, se già postato m'è sfuggito:
November 6, 2012
Investment Grade Credit
European Insurers
SNS Outlook Still Challenged
Bank asset quality remains the major concern at SNS.
We keep our recommendation to sell bank or group
Tier 1s – rather than chase LME – and would also sell
the insurer LT2s, given the risk we see of a full
insurance disposal not proceeding.
A very difficult 3Q12 for SNS reflected particularly in bank
asset quality, impairments spiking at the SME unit (141bp
annualised; 71bp over FY11) and Property Finance (8.8%
of average gross commitments annualised; 3.9% for FY11),
where 41% of loans are now non-performing (3Q11: 30%).
Outlook for 4Q11 clearly challenging, with management
guiding towards a net loss driven by bank impairments
remaining high, the potential for other assets to be
impaired (such as goodwill) and reorganisation charges.
No strategic review news (we could have to wait until
early 2013), though hints dropped, management
suggesting that a comprehensive solution may involve a
combination of actions, such as business disposals,
limitation of Property Finance credit risk, ordinary share
issuance and Dutch state core Tier 1 security conversion.
Any solution to need EC approval, raising the risk of
behavioural restrictions at SNS such as optionally
deferrable coupon bans. Bank €11.25% Tier 1 coupons
appear safe for now, given the presence of the pushing
€5.75% ‘must-pay’ Tier 1s. However, these bonds are
callable in 2013, making 2014 payments under the
€11.25% Tier 1s more uncertain, we believe.
We would not be reversing previous bank or group
Tier 1s sell recommendations to chase potential LME
(see SNS: Property Finance Concerns Remain, February
7, 2012), given an uncertain near-term SNS outlook and
likely negative read-across from the upcoming Spanish
bank restructuring.
Further, we see a material risk that a full insurance
disposal does not proceed, perhaps as a result of
unsupportive market conditions. After a relatively strong
run, we would be sellers too of the insurer €9% 41NC21s
(bid at 90, YTC of 10.8%, YTM of 10.1%), where we
believe that IG ratings are also at risk from potential EC
involvement down the line.
