signori ma che succede a commerz, le tier1 stanno schizzando letteralmente??
porca vacca, la volevo approfondire....
non ho fatto in tempo
*COMMERZBANK CEO SAYS TO PAY COUPON ON PARTICIPATION THIS YEAR
*COMMERZBANK CEO SAYS TO PAY COUPON ON SILENT PARTICIPATION
Clarity is low at this point.... But if it's what I think it is then i would suggest the following will happen. Love to hear counters as always.
This will I believe refer to the Jan-09 EUR16.4bn SoFFin silent participations. These SP rank junior to the 5.321% and 8.151% profit participations and pari with the 6.352 and remaining rumps of 5.012 and 5.905 inter alia.
In terms of loss sharing, the SoFFin notes are pari passu with all other instruments with loss participation; and explicitly there is to be "no dividend payment until full compensation of shared losses (silent participation)". This is key.
** The 5.321%
As these rank junior to the 5.321% it should mean that the 5.321% get written back up and the accumulated coupons should be repaid. The cum coupon pays on the nominal not the notional, so there will be no change to the coupon income. In terms of timing, it's an annual coupon so it could be that the notional is written back in calendar 2012, but my read of the docs is that you have to wait for the next coupon payment until the accumulated coupon is paid - the risk of non-payment in June should there be a terrible H1 for Commerz is I believe minimal as the Balance Sheet Profit test is taken on the fiscal year profit, not a quarterly event.
5.321 have gone bid only in the last half hour, now 103 bid on the screens.
** The 6.352%
For the 6.352%: these rank pari with the SoFFin notes so again they should be written back to par and the coupon (currently being paid by Allianz) will increase to 6.352% on par, not 6.352% on c.84% of the nominal.
This should be a div pusher too for the other outstanding T1 currently switched off eg the old litigation bonds.
This is indeed earlier than I had anticipated, especially given Blessing's bearish commenst on core bank in the call and the OK but lacklustre results this morning. I had thought that BaFin would rather see cash retained than bow to newspaper pressure to see a taxpayer return. Volk power is clearly strong in the Vaterland.