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By Charles Daly
Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- A voluntary liability management
exercise (LME) of subordinated debt rather than coercive action
(a forced bail-in) is the likely first step in any potential
recapitalization of SNS REAAL (Baa3/BBB-/BBB+), says MUFJ credit
analyst Eva Olsson in an interview.
• LME route means bank could buy back tier 1 debt at a discount to par, in turn generating core tier 1 capital
• T1 debt issues paying coupons of 11.25% and 6.258% currently quoted at prices of 53.318 and 39.929 respectively, according to Bloomberg data
• Estimates if bank offered to take out these two bonds at 10% over current market price could generate ~EU200m of CT1 capital
• Alternative to LME is coercive action, so decision on next steps is binary and “high risk:” MUFJ
• Any bail-in could force bondholders to take a much worse haircut, depends largely on political decisions: MUFJ
• NOTE: SNS junior bonds stem decline on speculation it will sell stake
• NOTE: Earlier, Dutch Finance Minister said bank debt should be fully subject to bail-in
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To contact the reporter on this story:
Charles Daly in Stockholm at +46-8-610-0717 or
[email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Deborah L Hyde at +44-20-3216-4829 or
[email protected]