Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 2

[Joe Silver]

Given the actions taken by the Dutch Government we would not
recommend investors take any of the following actions:

1. Reduce holdings in Lower Tier 2 instruments within
European Banks – We believe European banks are continuing to
deleverage and improve their balance sheets. As such this
should translate into a tightening of spreads for the majority
of Lower Tier 2 bonds. We would however, tread carefully in
Spanish Banks (particularly those currently controlled by FROB)
and certain Italian Banks (most notably Monte Dei Paschi).

notare il most notably,le altre quali sarebbero?

Se si può sapere, qual'è la fonte? Se non si può....è autorevole? Dei T1 non dice niente?
Grazie

 

[gionmorg]

Fitch Revises Netherlands' Outlook to Negative; Affirms at 'AAA'

LONDON, February 05 (Fitch) Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlooks on the
Kingdom of the Netherlands' ratings to Negative from Stable. At the same time
the agency has affirmed the Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default
Ratings (IDR) at'AAA'. Fitch has also affirmed the Netherlands' Country Ceiling
at 'AAA' and Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F1+'.

RATING RATIONALE

The rating actions reflect the following key factors:

The Outlook revision to Negative from Stable reflectsFitch's view that the
leveraged Dutch economy has suffered a number of shocks. Firstly, house prices
are declining at a rapid pace and the housing market correction is sharper than
what the agency previously expected; Fitch has revised its projected
peak-to-trough decline to 25% from 18%. This will continue to weigh heavily on
household consumption and consumer confidence. Secondly, as highlighted by last
week's nationalisation of SNS Bank N.V., some banking system problems persist,
withthree of the four major banks having faced severe financial difficulties
and needing external support since 2008. Thirdly, the level of public debt
(expected to peak at 77% of GDP) is higher than most 'AAA' peers, which reduces
fiscal policyoptions, and the economy has performed worse than Fitch previously
expected.

Fitch's affirmation of the Netherlands' 'AAA' sovereign rating is underpinned by
the country's flexible, diversified, high-value-added and competitive economy as
well asits current account surpluses and positive net international investment
position. The credit profile also benefits from strong domestic institutions, a
track record of sound budgetary management and historically broad public and
political consensusin support of fiscal discipline.

The general elections in September 2012 were won by the centre-right VVD party
and the Labour Party. Despite the different political views on economic issues,
the two parties are both strongly pro-European andfinalised a coalition deal on
5 November 2012. The new government's medium-term fiscal package includes a
mixture of revenue-raising measures and public-spending cuts aimed at achieving
budget savings of EUR16bn (2.6% of GDP) by 2017. The bulk ofsavings will be
made through reductions in healthcare and social security spending.

The government's multi-year fiscal consolidation plan is challenged by the
difficult economic conditions. The economy has performed worse than Fitch
previouslyexpected. The 2013 budget deficit target of 3% of GDP is based on an
assumption of 0.7% real GDP growth. Fitch expects a real GDP contraction of 0.5%
in 2013 which would result in a budget deficit of 3.4% of GDP. The recent
nationalisation of SNSwill cause a further one-off deterioration of 0.6pp of
GDP in the 2013 budget. Fitch expects the government will not adopt additional
fiscal measures and it therefore expects a general government deficit of 4% of
GDP in 2013.

Fitch does not seethe nationalisation of SNS Bank by itself as sufficient to
trigger a downgrade of the Netherlands' sovereign rating. The operation will add
1.6pp of GDP to the 2013 public debt level which Fitch projects at 74.4% of GDP.


The housing marketcorrection is sharper than what the agency previously
expected. As a result, in December Fitch revised downwards its house price
expectations for the Netherlands. The current trend of around 5%-7% annual
correction in Dutch house prices is expectedto continue until mid-2014, when
house prices are expected to bottom out. With household debt at 130% of GDP, one
of the highest in the EU, the weaker housing market outlook is likely to put
additional drag on private consumption due to negativewealth effects. Gross
fixed investment (which has contracted for three consecutive quarters) will also
weaken in 2013.

Fitch expects net trade to remain the only driver of real GDP growth in 2013-14.
Recovery in eurozone trading partners will bekey to the Dutch economic growth
prospects. Fitch expects GDP to contract by 0.1% in the eurozone in 2013 before
a recovery of 1.2% in 2014.

The recessionary environment will make reform implementation and fiscal policy
more challenging. Moreover, downside risks are elevated. In the event of a
weaker macroeconomic outlook relative to Fitch's baseline, the impact on public
finances and bank asset quality would be more severe.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

The main factors that could lead to anegative rating action are:

- Significant fiscal easing that resulted in government debt peaking later and
higher than forecast, or adverse shocks that implied higher government borrowing
and debt than projected

- A material deviation from ourhousing market baseline which would have a
negative impact on economic activity and, in turn, on the public finances.

- Prolonged economic stagnation and rising unemployment

- A sizeable increase in banking sector support with a knock-on effect onpublic
debt dynamics

The main factor that could lead to a stabilisation of the Outlook is:

- A less severe house price correction relative to our baseline could have a
positive impact on GDP growth and fiscal metrics.

- Faster than expectedstabilisation in public debt/GDP ratio

- Improvement in the economic outlook for the eurozone

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch assumes that contingent liabilities arising from the SNS nationalization
will have a one-off impact in 2013. Moreover, the agencyis not factoring
additional support to the banking sector in its debt sensitivity analysis from
2014 onwards. At the end of 2011 Dutch banks which received support in 2008
repaid a sizeable part of their loan to the sovereign (9.3pp of GDP out oftotal
support of 14.1pp of GDP). However, the rating is sensitive to policy actions
that would materially increase public debt and/or contingent liabilities arising
from any contribution to eurozone bail-out funds and state intervention in the
domestic economy.

In its debt sensitivity analysis, Fitch assumes a trend real GDP growth rate of
1.5%, GDP deflator of 1.9% and an average primary budget deficit of 0.7% of GDP
over the period 2012-21. Under these assumptions, public debt peaks at77% of
GDP in 2016 at a higher level than previously assumed (74% of GDP in 2016) and
declines from its current level to 73% of GDP in 2021.

Under a growth stress scenario (0.4% potential growth), public debt would peak
at 82% of GDP in 2019. Under an interest-rate stress scenario, the debt/GDP
ratio would peak in 2018 (two years later relative to the baseline) at a higher
level (78.6% of GDP). Only a scenario with no fiscal consolidation (primary
deficit of 2.5% of GDP in the medium-term)would lead to an explosive debt
trajectory with the debt/GDP ratio reaching 90% by 2020.

Fitch assumes there will be progress in deepening fiscal and financial
integration at the eurozone level in line with commitments by eurozone policy
makers. It also assumes that the risk of fragmentation of the eurozone remains
low.

Contact:

Primary Analyst

Michele Napolitano

Director

+44 20 3530 1536

Fitch Rating Limited

30 North Colonnade

London E14 5GN

Secondary Analyst

Gergely Kiss

Director

+44 20 3530 1425

Committee Chairperson

Paul Rawkins

Senior Director

+44 20 3530 1046

Media Relations: Peter Fitzpatrick, London, Tel: +44 20 3530 1103, Email:
[email protected]; Christian Giesen, Frankfurt am Main, Tel:
+49 69768076 232, Email: [email protected].

Additional information is available on Fitch Ratings - Dedicated to providing value beyond the rating.

The ratings above were unsolicited and have been provided by Fitch as a service
to investors.

Applicable criteria, 'Sovereign RatingMethodology', dated August 2012, are
available at Fitch Ratings - Dedicated to providing value beyond the rating.

Applicable Criteria and Related Research:

Sovereign Rating Methodology

Fitch Ratings - Dedicated to providing value beyond the rating

ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGSARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS.
PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK:
HTTP://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING
DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS AREAVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S
PUBLIC WEBSITE 'WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM'. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND
METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF
CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL,COMPLIANCE
AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE 'CODE OF
CONDUCT' SECTION OF THIS SITE.



17:38-05/02

Era ora che di smuovessero....

 

[Rottweiler]

Se si può sapere, qual'è la fonte? Se non si può....è autorevole? Dei T1 non dice niente?
Grazie

SVA ha allegato il report sul 3D SNS:



P.S. per Fabrizio: possibile l'estensore pensi a BP, oltre a MPS?

 

[steff]

Questo di Fitch impattera' sicuramente ed ulteriormente sulle subordinate
olandesi, domani vedremo...

 

[9/15]

Piccola considerazione.
Oggi leggo di umori neri e desideri di abbandonare il gioco.
Io, che solo per culo ho schivato gli ultimi siluri, mi ricordo che solo un mese fa eravamo tutti qui a far vedere chi ce l'aveva più duro (ha vinto Bos si, pare).
Quindi calma e gesso e, se possibile, un po' di leggerezza alla Amorgos (divino il panino al latte con zucchero riciclato) che non guasta mai.
Verranno tempi migliori, ovviamente dopo un rerating del rischio che è già nelle cose.

 

[fabriziof]

SVA ha allegato il report sul 3D SNS:



P.S. per Fabrizio: possibile l'estensore pensi a BP, oltre a MPS?

insomma alcune banche italiche,sopratutto mps,sono messe male.probabilmente si riferiva a bp e a bpm.comunque non piacevole

 

[SAVATAGE]

Olanda, Fitch conferma rating AAA ma taglia outlook

MILANO (MF-DJ)--Fitch ha confermato il rating AAA dell''Olanda ma ne ha tagliato l''outlook a negativo da stabile. L''agenzia di rating motiva la revisione dell''outlook per via dei "diversi shock dei quali ha sofferto l''economia olandese". "In primo luogo, i prezzi delle case stanno calando ad un ritmo rapido e la correzione del mercato immobiliare e'' piu'' profonda di quanto atteso", sostiene Fitch, citando in secondo luogo "la persistenza di alcuni problemi del sistema bancario", come evidenziato dalla nazionalizzazione di Sns Bank. In terzo luogo, Fitch sottolinea che il rapporto debito/Pil "e'' piu'' alto della maggior parte degli altri Paesi a rating AAA, cosa che riduce le opzioni di politica fiscale". L''agenzia sottolinea inoltre che l''economia olandese "ha performato peggio delle attese". Quanto ai fattori che potrebbero portare ad un downgrade, Fitch cita la possibilita'' che "un significativo allentamento fiscale possa ritardare il picco del debito e renderlo maggiore delle attese". L''agenzia cita anche "shock negativi" che implichino un indebitamento maggiore del previsto da parte del governo, oltre che una "materiale deviazione dallo scenario base del mercato immobiliare". Costituiscono fattori negativi anche "una prolungata stagnazione economica e crescita della disoccupazione", cosi'' come "un considerevole aumento del supporto pubblico al settore bancario". Potrebbero, invece, portare ad una stabilizzazione dell''outlook una correzione "meno severa" dei prezzi immobiliari, una "stabilizzazione piu'' rapida del rapporto debito/Pil" e "un miglioramento dell''outlook economico dell''Eurozona".

 

[gionmorg]

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA : IMF says Bank of Italy was vigilant on Monte Paschi
02/05/2013| 11:53am US/Eastern
The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday that it believed Italy's central bank did a good job in its oversight of crisis- hit Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Italy's third largest bank.

"The IMF team's preliminary view is that the Bank of Italy took timely and appropriate action - within the limits of the legal framework - to address problems at MPS," the IMF's chief spokesman Gerry Rice told Reuters.

"Oversight was close and supervisory action escalated appropriately as MPS's problems became acute," Rice said in a written statement.

An IMF team was in Italy until last week to conduct the first part of an assessment of Italy's financial system.

The Bank of Italy has been widely criticized over its oversight of Monte Paschi, which is set to tap 3.9 billion euros of state loans and whose former management is under investigation for fraud and other financial crimes.

 

[junior63]

mi chiedo se quest'atteggiamento di binck sia legale

Legale lo è, si dovrebbe chiedere il cambio di mercato prima di poter dire che non lo è.

Cè da dire anche una cosa:

Hanno da 2 mesi per trasferire le Otc

I titoli Otc vanno trasferiti e stop

Dovrò togliere dal monitoring i titoli quotati sul LUX e quelli Euronext con scambi sottili, poi valuterò se vale la pena tenerlo aperto o no.

 

[OdioGliAcronimi]

la cosa però fu diversa dai... tu NON SAPENDOLO non avevi aderito ad una proposta, se ne parlava...

e a proposito, ti faccio una domanda (non ricordandolo proprio), quanto quotavano le LT2 irlandesi prima di questa storia? insomma, si avrebbe avuto il tempo di vendere magari a 20?

Ciao Bluto, l' offerta di scambio sui titoli rlandesi a cui ti riferisci penso sia la ALLIED IRISH BANKS P.L.C. PRICING ANNOUNCEMENT - Bloomberg

Questa fu una operazione preliminare, alla quale i risparmiatori Italiani non poterono aderire (indipendentemente dal fatto di saperlo o no), che scambiava il Tier 1 con un altro titolo a nominale dimezzato e cedola doppia. Tieni conto che parliamo del 2009, per cui acque ancora molto agitate.

Il rimborso ad 1 centesimo per 1000 Euro avvenne parecchio tempo dopo, e comunque con una operazione separata e senza preavviso alcuno.

Ci fu il tempo di reagire e vendere ? Il tempo di vendere c'e' sempre.
Ti faccio una domanda: se vedi un titolo che, mentre il mercato e' pressoche' stabile o in lieve declino, passa da 75 a 47 nel giro di 11 giornate di borsa, che fai ?
a) vendi al volo senza neanche informarti
b) ti informi, ma poi vendi comunque senza esitare, anche se tanti dicono che non c'e' nessun problema
c) ti informi e poi ci pensi un po'
d) che me frega, tanto c'ho i cedoloni...

Se la risposta e' a) o b) il tempo di vendere c'e' sempre, e non solo per le Irlandesi.