Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 3

[solovaloreaggiunto]

Apaci (l'Hilsenrath di IO) ha detto che sa tutto.
Io attendo, mai ho trovato delle belle sorprese nelle uova pasquali.

ma l'outcome potrebbe essere pro USD vs EUR o intendi che puo' sparare un QE modello US ? quindi duration a manetta ancora?

 

[Massimum]

ma l'outcome potrebbe essere pro USD vs EUR o intendi che puo' sparare un QE modello US ? quindi duration a manetta ancora?

Secondo me domani non faranno niente. Ergo euro risalirà. Ovviamente spero sinceramente di sbagliarmi e che questi si sveglino. Ma ormai le speranze sono ridotte al lumicino. Non ho cmq preso nessuna posizione sulla base del possibile outcome del meeting.

 

[luperf]

Rbs nl0000456614

Ho postato il prospetto nell'apposita sezione

Allora... trovato questo, ma si ferma al 2012:
https://markets.rbs.nl/MediaLibrary...L0000456614_NL_onderliggende_portefeuille.pdf

Poi, rigorosamente in olandese...
Cedole:
De koers van dit product noteert inclusief opgelopen rente en keert halfjaarlijks een coupon uit. mei 2005: 3,00% - november 2005: 1,84% - mei 2006: 3,13% - november 2006: 1,57% - mei 2007: 3,27% - november 2007: 1,59% - mei 2008: 3,06% - november 2008: 2,00% - mei 2009: 2,92% - november 2009: 1,98% - juni 2010 6,488% - november: 2010: 1,27039% - mei 2011: 2,5118% - november 2011: 2,889% - mei 2012 1,8% - november 2012: 1,898% - mei 2013 0,835% - november 2013: 1.314%

 

[fabriziof]

Mi sembra d'avertelo ISINato io ...

Può darsi ,si estingue a 0,31 ,mi toccherà farlo fuori (quel che resta)

 

[apaci2]

Apaci (l'Hilsenrath di IO) ha detto che sa tutto.
Io attendo, mai ho trovato delle belle sorprese nelle uova pasquali.

Ho risposto solo a chi ieri mi ha chiesto via MP... ora non posso più...

Cmq mi raccomando: silenziosi come la notte

 

[Topgun1976]

Apaci (l'Hilsenrath di IO) ha detto che sa tutto.
Io attendo, mai ho trovato delle belle sorprese nelle uova pasquali.

Mah...non mi aspetto nulla..Questi si muovono solo con minaccie sistemiche..

 

[amorgos34]

ma l'outcome potrebbe essere pro USD vs EUR o intendi che puo' sparare un QE modello US ? quindi duration a manetta ancora?

Io nulla so.
Guardando come va il bund oggi c'è chi fa finta di sapere che domani qualcosa si muoverà (oltre alle belle parole che non mancano mai con Draghi).

QE esclusissimo, magari non sterilizza, o dà una micro abbassatina al tasso.
In generale mi adeguo a JPM che dice che nulla farà.

 

[Doc82]

Qualcuno ha notizie di questa credit agricol 6.5% xs1055037177 emessa ieri?

prezzi ora su iw: 100.6 bid 100.7 ask
Liquidissima! parola di Guetta

 

[Myskin]

per me il miglior parcheggio in eur resta sempre investec call 2015

bipiemme: ancora nessuna cedola in conto...comunque ieri (s.tommaso) ho chiamato direttamente l'ir e me l'hanno confermata

 

[amorgos34]

ma l'outcome potrebbe essere pro USD vs EUR o intendi che puo' sparare un QE modello US ? quindi duration a manetta ancora?

Questo è quello che prevede Fuzesi di JPM, c'ha sempre beccato, ci prenderà sicuramente anche questa volta.





ECB preview: on hold, despite the pressure to act



Despite today’s very low inflation reading, we still expect the ECB to remain on hold at Thursday’s meeting. The central bank has laid out two triggers for further action: a significant worsening of the medium-term inflation outlook and an unwarranted tightening of money market conditions.

Of course, many would argue that the inflation outlook in particular has been bad enough for a long time already to justify more ECB action. We agree that the pressure on the ECB is rising and that it will continue to rise this year as inflation disappoints its forecast. But, relative to the story laid out by ECB president Draghi at the last press conference, it is not clear that the ECB will have seen enough change to act this week. The rhetoric will likely be dovish however, aimed at talking down the currency.

In terms of money markets, excess liquidity is edging closer to €100 billion, but spot and forward Eonia rates have remained well behaved and low. Despite last month’s inaction and an upward shift in US rate expectations, markets have pushed back their expectation of the first ECB hike a bit further to the end of 2016 or the start of 2017. We would expect the ECB to be pleased with this.

In terms of inflation, the 1Q14 average was 0.7%oya for headline inflation, which is one tenth below the ECB staff’s latest projection. Most of the surprise has come from lower food and energy prices, which may relate in part to the mild winter. On core inflation, the surprise this morning was only slightly to the downside. The decline in services inflation (-0.2%-pt to 1.1%oya) is explicable with the timing of Easter, and it is even possible that there was a marginal increase once the decline in package holiday and airfare prices is excluded. In contrast, core goods prices eased around 0.15%-pt to 0.3%oya, which is less obviously related to the timing of Easter.

Hence, the underlying trend in services inflation may be in line with the ECB staff’s forecast and the underlying trend in core goods a bit softer. How does this fit into the ECB’s story? The central bank has argued that over the past year services inflation, which is driven largely by domestic conditions, has fallen entirely due to the (necessary) adjustment in the periphery, while services inflation in the core countries has remained close to its long-run average. In contrast, the ECB has viewed the common decline in core goods prices in the core and peripheral countries as mainly reflecting external factors (such as the currency and global pricing trends). That this is surprising on the downside could still be seen as transitory and related to the recent currency appreciation and to lower global inflation.

How does all of this fit into the ECB’s forecasting framework? Beyond this year, the ECB staff’s inflation forecast is essentially driven by two factors: the output gap and inflation expectations. With services inflation holding up, it is unlikely that the ECB will feel compelled to reassess its view of how big the output gap is currently. It could also feel little pressure to reassess its view of the output gap closing over time, given that growth indicators have remained at above-trend levels in March. The relative weakness in core goods inflation may raise its determination to talk down the currency however, but we doubt the ECB staff will be lowering the medium-term outlook for core goods inflation. Hence, the pressure for a reassessment is mainly coming from inflation expectations, given lower inflation outlook for this year. Given the latest downside surprises on food, energy and core goods, we have cut our 2014 forecast for headline inflation to just 0.7%oya, with 3Q15 averaging just 0.5%oya. This compares to the 1%oya that the ECB predicted at the last meeting. The lower inflation trajectory this year raises the risk that inflation expectations shift down even further, including at the medium-to-longer term horizon.

As we noted ahead of the last meeting, the ECB could easily have justified doing a lot more already. That it has not done so, in our view, reflects the constraint it faces from a lack of tools it considers appropriate and impactful. Its hope is that the monetary policy transmission improves over time (especially with the AQR and stress tests) and that growth holds up, even as low inflation and a surprisingly strong currency are raising the pressure to act. Our forecast that the ECB stays on hold this week (and beyond) is therefore uncomfortable, and we note that the threshold for action remains very hard to gauge. Essentially, we are assuming that core inflation remains stable and that growth gradually picks up further and that this persuades the ECB to remain patient. All it will do is to hike later than it may consider appropriate today, which is what markets appear to be pricing already. In this sense, we view the recent comments by Bundesbank president Weidmann on QE and a negative deposit rate as helpful as they allow Draghi to threaten action more credibly.