Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 3

[Maxwhite]

Nuova Hannover Re perp.NC10 XS1109836038 da oggi sul Lux.
Tasso fisso 3,375% fino al 2025 poi 3m + 3,25%. Taglio min. 100k.
Rating emittente AA- emissione A. Prospetto scaricabile dal sito Lux.

 

[negusneg]

Buy RBS Tier 1s While You Can
We follow our analyses of Credit Agricole and BNP with a look at RBS’ legacy Tier 1s. Grandfathering’s considered, but in our view, the more important driver is the sheer excess of Tier 1 – particularly with still-shrinking RWAs.
Next year should bring a bumper LME, in our view, but for now we like best the €7.0916%, €5.5%, €5.25% and $7.64%.

RBS has too much non-core Tier 1 with £9.4bn, 2.4% of RWAs – when 1.5% is most efficient. In our view, this excess capital is of little use unless it’ll fill a GLAC bucket and, even then, it’s still more expensive than new holdco senior and even Tier 2. The latter should certainly be GLAC, in our view – although November’s G20 meeting should bring more clarity.

Up to £6bn in Tier 1 could be redeemed by the end of 2015, in the scenario of RBS optimising non-core Tier 1 at 1.5% of RWAs and after its announced £2bn of AT1 issuance. We believe RBS could announce a generous exchange (it has no stick) in order to get rid of its most expensive old Tier 1, into the new £2bn AT1s, with others being called, where it makes sense.

We are buyers of RBS’s non-step € 7.0916% 17c and $ 7.64% 17c. Waiting for a generous LME – which may well only come in 2015 – isn’t exciting, but these bonds offer decent returns in their own right. They are also the best candidates for an LME (and it may well happen earlier) due to their high adjusted coupon costs and call dates relatively far off in 2017. We also like non-steps €5.5% and €5.25% as these look good value at ‘z-to-tender’ but also z-to-perp (and z to 2021).

Fears about Scotland’s vote caused the €5.5 for example to drop ~4 points last Monday, when the ‘Yes’ vote inched ahead in the polls; now we’re about 2.5 points off the June highs. We took down our heavy Overweight on RBS and Lloyds in our July 14 note, The Risk of an Independent Scotland, adding a select few back in Reloading RBS and Lloyds, September 11, 2014, which had cheapened up. While our base case is still a No, we explained in the latter note why even a Yes ought to be a non-event for bonds, and certainly a big opportunity to buy on weakness.

Grazie sva , allego ricerca su CA di qualche mese fa...

 

[nik.sala]

Buy cip di Suedzucker XS0222524372 @ 96.00

 

[darkog]

Buy cip di Suedzucker XS0222524372 @ 96.00

Ocio Nick.

Postato di là da SLV:

There is also a chance that Suedzucker could be the first hybrid to defer a coupon

 

[Myskin]

Ocio Nick.

Postato di là da SLV:

There is also a chance that Suedzucker could be the first hybrid to defer a coupon

questa non l'avevo letta
l'latra volta avevo fatto un discreto gain però sapevo che i numeri di suedzucker erano tutt'altro che brillanti

 

[nik.sala]

questa non l'avevo letta
l'latra volta avevo fatto un discreto gain però sapevo che i numeri di suedzucker erano tutt'altro che brillanti

Neanche io purtroppo
c'è rischio che non paghi il coupon ?
Leggendo il report ed i dati rapidamente, non leggo questa eventualità nei numeri...myskin le hai anche tu ?

 

[Myskin]

Neanche io purtroppo
c'è rischio che non paghi il coupon ?
Leggendo il report ed i dati rapidamente, non leggo questa eventualità nei numeri...myskin le hai anche tu ?

no, le avevo prese durante la scorsa discesa e vendute subito dopo...adesso non sono aggiornato però leggevo che i consumi di zucchero erano previsti in forte calo e che la redditività di suedz si stava deteriorando

 

[darkog]

Sempre preso di là da SLV.

Spero non sia un problema.

We think it doesn’t make sense for Suedzucker to redeem the hybrids at
their first call date next year, and the group has already stated that its
preferred option is to leave these outstanding.
 Suedzucker is an “Old” style hybrid, which keeps its equity content
indefinitely at both S&P and Moody’s. If SZUGR were to call the hybrid
and not replace it with a new subordinated security or equity, leverage
would increase from 0.1x to ~1.8x on a reported basis, and from 1.2x to
~3.2x adjusted. In this scenario we think SZUGR would be at risk of
being cut to sub investment grade unless its operating performance
improves substantially by then (more details on page 32).
 We think the market prices in a lot of this extension risk already - on a
YTW basis SZUGR trades at 4.7%, compared to a KPN YTC of 4.1%,
which we think is roughly its best comp.
 However, we think the risk of coupon deferral is not reflected in current
levels. The coupons are mandatorily deferrable if Suedzucker’s Cash
Flow/Revenues falls below 5% (8.9% for FYE 14) and they are noncumulative.
Suedzucker guides for this ratio to be >6.5% in FYE 2015,
but given the low headroom we think it could only take one more profits
warning before the market starts to price in a greater probability of
deferral.
 As Suedzucker enters harvesting season, and with sugar prices having
dropped further since the group outlined guidance, we think the risk of
another profits warning is high. We therefore think that investors should
consider setting shorts in this instrument.

 

[fabriziof]

A proposito di Tui un perpetuo di lungo corso che continua a dare soddisfazioni S&P erhöht TUI-Rating auf B+ von B 15.09.2014 | Nachricht | finanzen.net

 

[negusneg]

Südzucker XS0222524372

qualcuno ha news che giustifichino il calo odierno di oltre 3 punti?

Südzucker International Finance B.V. v. 05/15 (WKN A0E6FU, ISIN XS0222524372) - Kurs - ARIVA.DE

Forse si teme che il bond non venga richiamato nel 2015 (pagherebbe euribor+3,1%). Però a 96-97 diventa interessante

Secondo me è come dici,al momento l'opzione è no call vedi a pag.14 http://www.suedzucker.de/en/Downloa...10-09-2014-Boston/2014-09-10-RS-Boston-en.pdf

suedzucker azione ha perso parecchio negli ultimi mesi per effetto della forte riduzione EBITDA, ma non mi spiego la perdita di oggi della obbligazione

non vorrei che sia vicina la possibilità che non paghino la cedola punto 5.4 connesso al cash flow
https://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/media/bondbox_pdf/A0E6FU-bx.pdf
ma non ho avuto tempo di guardare bene

Buy cip di Suedzucker XS0222524372 @ 96.00

Ocio Nick.

Postato di là da SLV:

There is also a chance that Suedzucker could be the first hybrid to defer a coupon

In effetti la presentazione postata da Fabrizio qualche giorno fa, oltre alla notizia della non call contiene un profit warning secondo cui nel 2014/15 il rapporto cash flow/fatturato (che negli ultimi anni è oscillato fra l'8,6% ed il 12,6%) potrebbe scendere intorno al 6,5%, pericolosamente vicino alla soglia del 5% (basterebbero 100 mln di cash flow in meno rispetto alla guidance) che farebbe scattare il trigger che impedisce il pagamento della cedola.