TLAC (JPM)
Senior Risks: growing in stature
Implications of TLAC implementation strategies
In our opinion there is increasing probability of a harmonized approach for
TLAC implementation within the EU following the examples of
Germany/Italy. While this would make more sense within the context of the
SSM, it is the least preferred option from an investor’s perspective given
that it undermines the ranking of existing senior unsecured debt rather than
allowing investors to monetize the increased risk via subscription of new
asset classes. As a result, we would expect further underperformance in
spreads based on weaker investor sentiment on the back of a broad statutory
solution, with developments in the Greek bank sector being a further
reminder of the implications of bail-in. We therefore downgrade our
recommendation on Senior Unsecured from Neutral to Underweight.
We develop a valuation framework which suggests that the additional
subordination of senior unsecured to excluded liabilities should result in a
net widening of 75bp, with more than half of that widening already having
occurred. We highlight that Tier II would benefit from the statutory
approach on the basis that it would reduce the incremental need for any
issuance of dated subordinated debt and we remain Overweight Tier II.