Banco Popular Announces Credit-Negative Adjustments to 2016 Financial Statements
Last Monday, Banco Popular Español S.A. (Ba1/Ba2 negative, b16 ) announced that an internal review had identified needed adjustments that we estimate will negatively affect the bank’s capital ratios by approximately €600 million. Consequently, the bank estimates it will report a total capital ratio of 11.70%- 11.85% at 31 March 2017, well below the 13.1% reported at year-end 2016 and only 40 basis points above its regulatory capital requirement, a credit negative for Popular, its creditors and particularly for the holders of its Additional Tier 1 (AT1) instruments. These adjustments highlight control weaknesses that triggered a shortfall in certain provisions and could affect 2016 results by up to €428 million. In addition, the review also identified €205 million of loans that could have been used to acquire Popular’s shares, which, if verified, would need to be deducted from the bank’s regulatory capital. Popular’s board of directors and auditors have determined that these adjustments are not significant enough to merit a restatement of 2016 annual accounts and will instead be included retroactively in first-quarter 2017 financial statements. Popular’s estimated total capital ratio of 11.70%-11.85% at 31 March 2017 is now closer to its 2017 Pillar II supervisory review and evaluation process (SREP) total capital requirement of 11.375%. The bank now has a buffer of around 40 basis points against this regulatory capital ratio, equal to approximately €300 million, a credit negative for the bank. Popular is now closer to having restrictions imposed on the payment of its AT1 coupons. The bank’s ability to make AT1 payments is determined by the bank meeting regulatory capital requirements and its holdings of available distributable items,7 which were €3.8 billion at year-end 2016, well above the €120 million combined annual payment on the AT1 bonds. Under the European Union’s Capital Requirements Directive (CRD IV), distributions from earnings or reserves of banks that fall short of their SREP requirements are subject to a ceiling. Popular’s current total capital gives it headroom of just around 40 basis points before the imposition of coupon restrictions, a credit negative for AT1 instrument holders. Popular’s capital ratios were negatively affected in 2016 by a €3.5 billion loss triggered by significant provisioning, which exceeded the €2.5 billion of capital the bank raised in the market last June (see exhibit).
Popular’s 2016 annual report noted a set of capital-enhancing measures, which, according to the bank and its auditors, will allow compliance with regulatory capital ratios this year. These measures include the sale of treasury shares and the reduction of fixed-income capital losses (which the bank estimated will benefit its capital by 105 basis points) and the divestment of non-strategic businesses (a 100-basis-point benefit). However, we believe it will be challenging for the bank to comply with its SREP total capital requirement without raising additional capital. On 15 March, we changed Popular’s Ba1 and Ba2 ratings outlooks to negative from positive because of the bank’s slow progress in meeting its strategic targets.