arkymede74
Forumer storico
novita' General shopping dopo l'allarme rientrato??
Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 3 (13 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Joe Silver
- Data di Inizio
Peco
Forumer storico
ieri l'azione ordinaria ha fatto + 4,11% non credo ci siano particolari problemi
Marco1974
Nec spe nec metu
Lloyds' ECN
Commenti dei brokerage desks post risultati LLoyds:
Lloyds' FD apparently said in the first investors call today that ENCs so far still count as stress test capital for the PRA, although going forward that situation is less certain.
As long as ECNs count as stress test Tier 1 capital (they are Tier 2 normally) conditions for a par regulatory call are not fulfilled and the longer there is no change in this status it becomes less important for the PRA to change this, as it could simply wait for the ECNs to mature.
Quite positive, I think, especially for the high coupon ECNs, which have underperformed recently on concerns over imminent regulatory calls. A lower near-term risk of regulatory calls is positive for ECNs across the curve (less so the 15% since they are the only ECNs with make-whole clauses), but should especially reduce the yield differential between low and high coupon ECNs which has developed in recent weeks.
Commenti dei brokerage desks post risultati LLoyds:
Lloyds' FD apparently said in the first investors call today that ENCs so far still count as stress test capital for the PRA, although going forward that situation is less certain.
As long as ECNs count as stress test Tier 1 capital (they are Tier 2 normally) conditions for a par regulatory call are not fulfilled and the longer there is no change in this status it becomes less important for the PRA to change this, as it could simply wait for the ECNs to mature.
Quite positive, I think, especially for the high coupon ECNs, which have underperformed recently on concerns over imminent regulatory calls. A lower near-term risk of regulatory calls is positive for ECNs across the curve (less so the 15% since they are the only ECNs with make-whole clauses), but should especially reduce the yield differential between low and high coupon ECNs which has developed in recent weeks.
Marco1974
Nec spe nec metu
Lloyds' ECN
Lloyds
** Lloyds: There was certainly a kerfuffle as you know on the ECNs yesterday. That said, I think if you read back through the transcript of the call it’s not as brutal as some of the more fundamentalist branches of the trading community might suggest. Yes the folks on the mentioned reg par call, but they did so within the context of everything we already know – i.e. that you’d have to be “blind and deaf not to know that there was a reg par call option on these instruments”. Well yes we know about that, we’ve talked little else on these damned things for two years.
It’s clear that Lloyds does not know yet whether or not the PRA will allow the ECNs as stress test capital but again, as we already know, it’s only a matter of time until they do not. They said on the equity call that “yes, they do count… they count within our stress-tests that we currently carry out for the PRA. In terms of go forward, so the go forward is much less certain”. Again this lack of certainty is something we already knew. They do not expect the PRA to rule on what can or cannot be included in buffer capital until at least the back end of H1 and then management will take a decision after that. And in that context, the Treasurer also said that while “I wouldn't call myself investor-friendly, but I would call myself fair. And I don't see myself deviating from that adjective any time soon” and that, “again, we seek to be fair and that's a model that's worked for us through the crisis. And we want to make sure that we treat our investors fairly, that we have a good relationship with them and that is important to us.“ and that, “I've got to balance that against maintaining market access and ensuring that we maintain Lloyds as a name in the hearts and minds of our investor community”. That doesn’t sound like someone who will willingly and wilfully exercise a reg par call unless the market does the job for him.
Obviously the consequence has been to make any future action as cheap as possible. They noted on the call that any cost associated with taking out some of the ECNs (and not all of them by any means) would be little more than a rounding error, and this was in the context of mentioning a premium – yes, even though they did mention the well-known concept of reg par call, the Treasury chap also said “the premium will depend ultimately on how we choose to do it, if we choose to do anything at all.” So is this just a cynical ploy to make it a bit cheaper to exercise a tender or exchange into AT1 (something that they mentioned in the annual report that they will look to do this year)?
You can’t help but feel that the general downside pressure is going to continue as what investors (and to an extent Lloyds) is doing is creating a self-fulfilling prophesy, but I doubt it's going to be a bone-crusher. At the end of the day, I don’t think that if you have the mid-level coupons (in the 6-8% range) that prices are going to deviate much from the 106-109 kind of price that we saw yesterday. The coupon accrual and decent running yield for the next 4-6 months until any decision is guided, plus a modest premium, should offset too much of a pull back to par.
It’s easy to be sanguine after the event, I appreciate that, but I do think that we need to caution about throwing the baby out with the bathwater, the tone of the call was very different from the near-panic that ensued, but like I say there is the threat of a self-fulfilling prophesy as we know.
Lloyds
** Lloyds: There was certainly a kerfuffle as you know on the ECNs yesterday. That said, I think if you read back through the transcript of the call it’s not as brutal as some of the more fundamentalist branches of the trading community might suggest. Yes the folks on the mentioned reg par call, but they did so within the context of everything we already know – i.e. that you’d have to be “blind and deaf not to know that there was a reg par call option on these instruments”. Well yes we know about that, we’ve talked little else on these damned things for two years.
It’s clear that Lloyds does not know yet whether or not the PRA will allow the ECNs as stress test capital but again, as we already know, it’s only a matter of time until they do not. They said on the equity call that “yes, they do count… they count within our stress-tests that we currently carry out for the PRA. In terms of go forward, so the go forward is much less certain”. Again this lack of certainty is something we already knew. They do not expect the PRA to rule on what can or cannot be included in buffer capital until at least the back end of H1 and then management will take a decision after that. And in that context, the Treasurer also said that while “I wouldn't call myself investor-friendly, but I would call myself fair. And I don't see myself deviating from that adjective any time soon” and that, “again, we seek to be fair and that's a model that's worked for us through the crisis. And we want to make sure that we treat our investors fairly, that we have a good relationship with them and that is important to us.“ and that, “I've got to balance that against maintaining market access and ensuring that we maintain Lloyds as a name in the hearts and minds of our investor community”. That doesn’t sound like someone who will willingly and wilfully exercise a reg par call unless the market does the job for him.
Obviously the consequence has been to make any future action as cheap as possible. They noted on the call that any cost associated with taking out some of the ECNs (and not all of them by any means) would be little more than a rounding error, and this was in the context of mentioning a premium – yes, even though they did mention the well-known concept of reg par call, the Treasury chap also said “the premium will depend ultimately on how we choose to do it, if we choose to do anything at all.” So is this just a cynical ploy to make it a bit cheaper to exercise a tender or exchange into AT1 (something that they mentioned in the annual report that they will look to do this year)?
You can’t help but feel that the general downside pressure is going to continue as what investors (and to an extent Lloyds) is doing is creating a self-fulfilling prophesy, but I doubt it's going to be a bone-crusher. At the end of the day, I don’t think that if you have the mid-level coupons (in the 6-8% range) that prices are going to deviate much from the 106-109 kind of price that we saw yesterday. The coupon accrual and decent running yield for the next 4-6 months until any decision is guided, plus a modest premium, should offset too much of a pull back to par.
It’s easy to be sanguine after the event, I appreciate that, but I do think that we need to caution about throwing the baby out with the bathwater, the tone of the call was very different from the near-panic that ensued, but like I say there is the threat of a self-fulfilling prophesy as we know.
no perpetual no party
Forumer storico
è una coincidenza che il calo repentino del bond sia in concomitanza con la notizia dell'entrata del Teton Capitale di cui sopra?
perche fino alla settimana scorsa le quotazioni erano sugli 88-90
Ultima modifica:
Topgun1976
Guest
Questo prezzo è reale,L'88 a parte Cris con Ubs lo vedo difficile.
Io ci ho messo 4 gg per prenderle sotto 89
solovaloreaggiunto
Forumer storico
io non parteciperei mai al tender del CS Clausius a 100+3% (di contentino)... cavoli hai carta CS al 7.875% potenzialmente infinito in USD 
, secondo me il mercato non aderira' in massa..
, secondo me il mercato non aderira' in massa..fabriziof
Forumer storico
io non parteciperei mai al tender del CS Clausius a 100+3% (di contentino)... cavoli hai carta CS al 7.875% potenzialmente infinito in USD
C'é un piccolo particolare ,chi non aderisce gli rimborsano 100 il 18 marzo
solovaloreaggiunto
Forumer storico
C'é un piccolo particolare ,chi non aderisce gli rimborsano 100 il 18 marzo
ah bastardiiiiiiiiiiiiiii
innocentiproject
Forumer attivo
io non parteciperei mai al tender del CS Clausius a 100+3% (di contentino)... cavoli hai carta CS al 7.875% potenzialmente infinito in USD
da considerare che stava a piu di 108 qualche giorno fa, prima che si annusasse la call.